SMC Global Monthly Report on Bullions & Energy

SPECIAL MONTHLY REPORT ON

Bullions & Energy(June 2014)

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June 2014

BULLIONS AND ENERGY PERFORMANCE ( - 30th May 2014) (% change) 30th April 2014

Source: Reuters and SMC Research

COMEX/NYMEX MCX

-6.88

-4.13

1.48

-7.25

-3.01

-0.73

3.26

-5.23

-8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00

Gold

Silver

Crude oil

Natural Gas

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BULLIONS

In the month of May bullion counter moved with

negative bias tracking feeble investment demand

and drop in china gold imports. Holdings in

exchange traded products backed by physical gold

continue to hit new 4½ year lows while physical

demand may receive a boost from pent up Indian

demand later this year when import restrictions are

expected to be eased by the new government. But

greenback took support near 79.5 levels and

recovered swiftly in the month of May which

pressurized the bullions lower. Slow China physical

demand capped the upside in gold. Overall gold

(June) traded in range of 26560-29029 in MCX and

$1242-1315 in COMEX. Silver (July) traded in range

of $18.91-20.38 in COMEX and 39517-42860 in

MCX. Recently rising greenback and better

economic data have kept the prices downbeat.

Meanwhile geopolitical tensions in Ukraine kept the

downside capped as it increases safe haven demand

of yellow metal.

In the month of June bullion counter can move

sideways with weak bias. On domestic bourses the

movements of local currency rupee will be key factor

to watch out which can move in range of 59-61.50 in

the month of May. Gold can trade in range of Rs

24500-26800 in MCX and $1170-1300 in COMEX.

Silver can trade in range of 36000-42000 in MCX

and $17-20 in COMEX. The gold/silver ratio has

moved to nearly 66.6 from 67.6 recently as gold fell

at faster pace than silver. This ratio can hover in

range of 65-68 in the month of June. Recovery in US

economy has also led to reduced safe haven demand

in bullion counter. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust,

the largest exchange traded product backed by

bullion, are headed for a second monthly

contraction after dropping to 776.89 tonnes on May

21, the lowest level since December 2008. Gold

slumped 28 percent last year on expectations that

the Federal Reserve will reduce asset purchases as

the economy recovers. The metal is set for a second

weekly drop after data this week showed U.S.

durable goods orders unexpectedly rose in April and

net gold imports from Hong Kong by China fell in

April from both March and a year ago. But investor

interest in the precious metal declined in the wake of

the recent presidential election in Ukraine, as hopes

that the new leadership could help resolve the

month's long conflict between Moscow and Kiev

curbed demand for gold.BU

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India CAD drops sharply to 1.7% in FY14 on

lower gold imports

Aided by a sharp fall in gold imports, India's current

account deficit (CAD) narrowed sharply to 1.7 per cent

of GDP, or $32.4 billion, in FY14 from a record high of

$87.8 billion or 4.7 per cent in FY13. The lower CAD is

expected to give the new NDA government enough

room to revamp the economy. For the fourth quarter of

FY14, the CAD narrowed to $1.2 billion, or 0.2 per cent

of GDP from $18.1 billion (3.6 per cent of GDP) in the

same period of FY13. The decline - also the third straight

quarterly fall - was lower than $4.2 billion (0.9 per cent

of GDP) in the third quarter of FY14, as the decline in

imports was sharper than that in exports, according to

the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). "The decline in

imports was primarily led by a steep decline in gold

imports, which amounted to $5.3 billion, significantly

lower than $15.8 billion in Q4 of 2012-13," the RBI said.

Ukraine tensions

Recently Pro-Russian separatists dealt a heavy blow to

Ukrainian military efforts to win back the rebellious

east, even as tensions between insurgent factions

spilled into the open in this anxious regional capital's

downtown. U.S. Secretary of State John F. Kerry

pressed his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, to “end

all support for separatists, denounce their actions and

call on them to lay down their arms,” State Department

spokeswoman Jen Psaki said last week.

World gold council –First quarter review

Gold demand had a robust start to 2014 virtually

unchanged year-on-year at 1,074.5 tonnes. Jewellery

demand made moderate gains of 3% largely due to

lower gold prices compared with Q1 2013 and seasonal

factors, notably Chinese New Year, which contributed

to record first-quarter jewellery demand in China.

Movements within the investment space were more

striking: net ETF flows were zero, compared with 177

tonnes of outflows in Q1 2013, while bar and coin

investment unsurprisingly fell far short (-39%) of the

record levels of demand seen a year ago. The net impact

on Q1 investment demand was minimal: it was down by

just 6 tonnes (2%) year-on-year.

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Analysis: Chinese consumers generated the largest year-on-year volume increase in jewellery demand. The

most notable decline at the country level was in India, with a 9% drop in jewellery demand to 145.6 tonnes.

Jewellery demand strengthened across the Middle Eastern region as a whole. Turning to the industrialized west,

consumers in the US and the UK responded positively to lower gold prices and continued economic recovery. In

Russia, continued economic slowdown, combined with further depreciation of the rouble and an outbreak of

geopolitical tensions, led to a nominal reduction in jewellery demand.

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Jewellery demand

Analysis: While consumers were relatively robust in their demand for gold jewellery last quarter, second

quarter comparisons are expected to be significantly weaker. Much of the demand surge last year occurred in

response to the price drops in April and May, thereby pushing Q2 demand far beyond 'normal' ranges.

Jewellery demand was well supported in the first quarter, exceeding the total from Q1 last year, a period in which

we saw the beginnings of 2013's remarkable consumer resurgence. Lower gold prices were the most important

factor behind the growth in Q1 jewellery demand; the average US$ price was 21% lower than the year-earlier

period. This decline in the international price was echoed in many markets, with European and Chinese

consumers benefiting from a similar lower-price environment.

The first quarter of this year saw a continuation of momentum in the jewellery markets, with demand following

traditional patterns. Seasonal effects were particularly notable in China, where the response to the Chinese New

Year followed its customary path: Q4 strength in consumer demand and stock building, in preparation for New

Year and Valentine's Day, continued into January before quickly subsiding once the holiday period was over.

Demand remained subdued throughout the closing weeks of the quarter. This was repeated throughout South

East Asia, with demand in Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia also showing the usual New Year-related surge.

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Investment demand

Q1 investment demand for gold was just 6 tonnes (2%) lower year-on-year at 282.3 tonnes. However, the picture

of stability at the aggregate level conceals a more marked divergence in the different elements of demand within

the sector: bar and coin demand was significantly weaker while ETF outflows dwindled. Net ETF gold demand

was zero, with limited activity from both sides during the quarter. This had a positive impact on year-on-year

comparisons, given outflows of 176.5t in Q1 2013. On the one hand, tensions in Ukraine brought gold's risk-

hedging properties into focus. This resulted in positive monthly inflows to ETFs in February, for the first time in

over a year, which were repeated in March. However, expectations for continued US and global economic

recovery and possible increases in US interest rates over coming years had a contrasting effect, which

neutralized these inflows.

Analysis: Bar and coin investment suffered the most negative year-on-year comparisons for Q1, in part because

the base period was a record first quarter for bar and coin demand, but also due to uncertainty in the outlook for

the gold price. Bar and coin investment across Europe remained within its broad post-financial crisis range,

although very much at the lower end. Indian bar and coin investment was very restrained in the first quarter,

well below both year-earlier levels and the five-year quarterly average as the government's import limits

continued to suppress demand. Demand for gold investment products in the US was relatively muted in the first

quarter, 30% below 2013's elevated levels.

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Central banks demand

Net purchases by central banks reached 122.4 tonnes in Q1 2014, comfortably within the range of buying that has

been in place for the last three years. Germany remains the only active signatory of the Central Bank Gold

Agreement (CBGA), owing to its coin-minting programme.

Gold Supply

The supply of gold in the first quarter increased marginally (+1%) compared with the same period of 2013. An

additional 55.7 tonnes from mine supply was offset by a 46.6 tonnes reduction in recycled gold. Growth in gold

mine production (+6% year-on-year) was due to new operations either ramping-up or coming on stream.

The first quarter saw positive net hedging on a very small scale. The 6 tonnes of net hedging seen in Q1 compares

with 10.6 tonnes of net de-hedging in the same period last year.

Analysis: Recycled gold supplied by the developing world was marginally lower year-on-year. The relatively

lower gold price was the key factor motivating consumers, who preferred to wait for the opportunity to sell at a

higher price. The supply of recycled gold from Indian consumers was virtually unchanged year-on-year.

Although average domestic prices were lower than they had been a year earlier, high local premiums in Q1

indicated a continued lack of supply, which recycled gold, would have helped to mitigate. The supply of recycled

gold from Japan also declined sharply as consumers held off from selling their existing holdings pending the VAT

increase. These consumers receive VAT on top of the price that they receive for recycled gold, so we would

anticipate some of this pent up supply to be released in the second quarter.

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Range

Gold MCX Rs 24500-26800 per 10 gms

COMEX $1170-1300 per troy ounce

Gold Hedge NCDEX Rs 22800-25200 per 10 gms

Silver MCX Rs 36000-42000 per kg

COMEX $17-20 per ounce

Silver Hedge NCDEX Rs 3350-3650 per 100 gms

Gold Silver ratio

Source: Reuters

Analysis: The gold/silver ratio has moved to nearly 66.6 from 67.6 recently as gold fell at faster pace than silver.

This ratio can hover in range of 65-68 in the month of June 2014.

In the month of June 2014 bullion counter

will remain with downside bias. Ukraine

tensions and movement of greenback will

give further direction to the prices.

Moreover condition of global economy and

movement of local currency rupee coupled

with Physical, ETF demand will also

influence its prices.

ENERGYENERGYCRUDE OIL & NATURAL GASCRUDE OIL & NATURAL GAS

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ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude Oil

In the month of May crude oil prices traded on

positive path amid fall in stockpiles and tensions in

Ukraine and Russia. On domestic bourses strong

local currency rupee has kept the prices upside

capped as stable government at centre and

increasing FII flow supported rupee/dollar. Prices

traded in range of nearly $98.74- 104.50 in NYMEX

and 5960-6198 in MCX. Supply disruption in Libya

also supported the prices. Rebels in eastern Libya

threatened to shut two oil ports to protest the

appointment of the OPEC nation's new prime

minister. Crude prices strengthen in the latter part

of the month after moving sideways in initial part of

the last month. Concerns over a dramatic escalation

in the Ukraine crisis that could potentially cause a

disruption in gas supply and send energy prices

soaring. A fierce battle erupted in the rebel-held

eastern belt of Ukraine recently, just hours after

president-elect Petro Poroshenko vowed he would

not let the country become another Somalia.

Ukrainian fighter jets and combat helicopters struck

the terminal building at an airport in the eastern city

of Donetsk to try to dislodge scores of separatist

gunmen who seized the complex, triggering hours of

heavy firefights.

Crude oil futures can move sideways with mixed

path in the month of June. Economic data from US

and Europe along with geopolitical tensions will give

direction to the crude oil prices. Crude oil can move

in range of 5800-6300 in the month of June. The

drivers behind the positive momentum are the

combination of the annual pickup up in demand

from refineries as production of gasoline escalates

and geopolitical concerns mostly related to Ukraine

and Libya rumble on. Recently in the US, weekly

inventories shrank by a surprising 7.23 million

barrels, the most in four months on a combination of

reduced imports and increased refinery demand.

Adding some additional price support was another

inventory draw at Cushing, the massive storage

facility in Oklahoma which serves as the delivery

hub for WTI crude oil futures in New York.

June 2014

Fighting in Ukraine as well as production cuts in Libya

and South Sudan had helped drive up Brent, but

tensions eased after Russia said it would respect

Ukraine's election results. Recently, a decisive win for

billionaire Petro Poroshenko in Ukraine's presidential

election raised hopes of political stability in Ukraine - a

main gas supply route to Europe from Russia. Growth in

oil supply is expected to exceed demand this year,

spurring softer prices in the second quarter before

rebounding in the second half of the year on seasonally

stronger consumption.

Barring new supply outages, global oil capacity will rise

by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, the fastest

growth in a decade, the bank said, while product

demand will grow by 1.1 million bpd.

Libya and Iraq tensions

Libya's El Sharara and El Feel oilfields remained shut, a

spokesman for state-run National Oil Corp said

recently, almost two weeks after the government said

protests at the western fields had ended. OPEC

production is likely to decline this year, despite an

addition of 400,000 bpd of new capacity led by Iraq and

Saudi Arabia. Sudan has offered to supply materials,

engineers and electricity to South Sudan to speed up the

repair of oilfields damaged during a five-month

rebellion that has slashed output by a third, South

Sudan's oil minister said recently. The OPEC producer

produced 1.4 million bpd before nationwide protests at

oil fields and ports started in July 2013.

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Brent WTI Spread

Source: Reuters

Analysis: Brent WTI spread narrowed to below 7 after testing high of above 9 in beginning of May 2014. This

spread can hover in range of 5-8 in near term. The reason for narrowing of spread as the escalating tension

between Russia and Ukraine which helped to boost Brent crude oil prices, as Russia is a major oil exporter. Also,

geopolitical events outside the U.S. are more apt to affect Brent crude prices than WTI prices. The increased

transportation capacity from inland U.S. crude production regions to demand centers (such as refineries on the

Gulf Coast) is bullish for WTI crude oil prices. The expanded pipeline is reportedly able to move more than

850,000 barrels per day of crude oil. Furthermore, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that

stocks at the inland U.S. crude hub of Cushing continued to decrease, which may also indicate that U.S. crude

produced inland is having an easier time getting to demand centers such as refineries. This can bring WTI and

Brent prices closer together.

Some key points from EIA estimates

Liquid Fuels Consumption

Total U.S. liquid fuels consumption rose by an

estimated 400,000 bbl/d (2.1%) in 2013. Total

consumption growth slows, to 40,000 bbl/d in 2014

and 70,000 bbl/d in 2015. Consumption of

hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) registered the

largest gain in 2013, increasing by 150,000 bbl/d

(6.4%). HGL consumption growth of 30,000 bbl/d

in 2014 and 50,000 bbl/d in 2015 is led by

increasing ethane use as a feedstock in ethylene

production units. Motor gasoline consumption grew

by 90,000 bbl/d (1.1%) in 2013, the largest increase

since 2006. Motor gasoline consumption grows by

20,000 bbl/d in 2014 and remains flat in 2015 as

improving new vehicle fuel economy increasingly

offsets highway travel growth. Distillate fuel

consumption increased by 90,000 bbl/d (2.5%) last

year, reflecting colder weather and domestic economic

growth. Distillate fuel oil consumption rises by 70,000

bbl/d and 60,000 bbl/d in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

The increases in HGL, gasoline, and distillate

consumption are partially offset by declines in

consumption of residual fuel oil and unfinished oils.

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Liquid Fuels Supply

Forecast total U.S. crude oil production increases

from an estimated 7.4 million bbl/d in 2013 to 8.5

million bbl/d in 2014 and 9.2 million bbl/d in 2015.

The highest previous annual average U.S.

production level was 9.6 million bbl/d in 1970. EIA

has increased its Gulf of Mexico crude oil production

forecast as new wells in the Mars field began

producing ahead of schedule in February 2014. The

Olympus platform and Mars B infrastructure,

owned by Shell and BP, is the first major expansion

of the Mars field. Mars B production is expected to

reach 100,000 bbl/d in 2015. Although the peak

production levels have not changed, earlier reports

indicated that the Mars B system would begin

producing in late 2014 or early 2015. U.S. federal

Gulf of Mexico (GOM) production, which has fallen

for four consecutive years, is projected to increase by

150,000 bbl/d in 2014 and by an additional 240,000

bbl/d in 2015.

Non‐OPEC Supply

EIA estimates that non-OPEC liquid fuel production

grew by 1.3 million bbl/d in 2013, averaging 54.0

million bbl/d for the year. EIA expects non-OPEC

liquid fuel production to grow by 1.5 million bbl/d in

2014 and 1.1 million bbl/d in 2015. EIA forecasts

production from the United States and Canada to

grow by a combined annual average of 1.4 million

bbl/d in 2014 and 1.1 million bbl/d in 2015. EIA

estimates that production will rise by an annual

average of 0.21 million bbl/d in 2014 in countries of

the Former Soviet Union, led by Russia. However,

production in the region only rises by 30,000 bbl/d

in 2015. The forecast of completion of phase 1 of

Kazakhstan's Kashagan field has been pushed back

to the second half of 2015 because of continued

problems delaying the start of commercial

production at the field. Unplanned supply

disruptions among non-OPEC producers averaged

0.6 million bbl/d in April 2014, roughly unchanged

from March. South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen

accounted for almost 90% of total non-OPEC supply

disruptions. EIA does not assume a disruption to oil

supply or demand as a result of ongoing events in

Ukraine.

OPEC Supply

EIA estimates that OPEC crude oil production averaged

30.0 million bbl/d in 2013, a decline of 0.9 million bbl/d

from the previous year, primarily reflecting production

declines in Iran, increased unplanned outages in Libya,

Nigeria, and Iraq, and strong non-OPEC supply growth.

EIA expects OPEC crude oil production to fall by 0.4

million bbl/d in 2014 and an additional 0.1 million

bbl/d in 2015, as a result of supply disruptions in OPEC

and cutbacks in crude oil production to accommodate

increased supplies in non-OPEC countries. Unplanned

crude oil supply disruptions among OPEC producers

averaged 2.6 million bbl/d in April, slightly lower than

the previous month. Libya continues to experience

swings in its production, contributing to changes in the

OPEC disruption estimate. EIA expects that OPEC

surplus capacity, which is concentrated in Saudi Arabia,

will average 2.3 million bbl/d in 2014 and 3.5 million

bbl/d in 2015. This build in surplus capacity reflects

production cutbacks by some OPEC members adjusting

for the higher supply from non-OPEC producers. These

estimates do not include additional capacity that may be

available in Iran but is currently offline because of the

effects of U.S. and European Union sanctions on Iran's

oil sector.

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids

Consumption

EIA estimates that global consumption grew by 1.2

million bbl/d in 2013, averaging 90.4 million bbl/d for

the year. EIA expects global consumption to grow 1.2

million bbl/d in both 2014 and 2015. Projected global

oil-consumption-weighted real GDP, which increased

by an estimated 2.3% in 2013, grows by 2.8% and 3.3%

in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

Crude oil may remain on volatile path on mixed

fundamentals. Ukraine tensions can give

support to the prices while increase in

stockpiles can cap the upside. Global

macroeconomic numbers along with weekly

inventory data in US will also affect the overall

sentiments.

Range

Crude Oil

MCX Rs 5800-6300 per barrel

NYMEX $98-106 per barrel

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Natural Gas

average 72.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in Natural gas prices plunged lower in the month of the 2014, an increase of 1.3% from 2013, led by the month of May on low demand as the absence of industrial sector. In 2015, total natural gas extreme temperatures curbs demand for heating consumption falls by 0.1 Bcf/d as a return to near-and air conditioning. Overall it traded in range of normal winter weather contributes to lower $4.29-4.85 in NYMEX and 254.10-291.90 in MCX. residential and commercial consumption. Higher

Natural gas can move in range of 252-295 in the natural gas prices this U.S. Energy Information

month of June as weather concerns and position of Administration year contribute to a 0.4% decline in

stockpiles will give further direction to the prices. natural gas consumption in the power sector to 22.2

Following the very cold winter gas stockpiles are Bcf/d in 2014. EIA expects natural gas

still over 40 per cent below the five-year average for consumption in the power sector to increase to 23.1

this time of year and a relatively high price is needed Bcf/d in 2015 with the retirement of some coal

over the coming months to encourage producers to plants.

keep production levels high and also to motivate

power plants to switch from gas to coal. So far,

however, the weather conditions have been perfect U.S. Natural Gas Production and Trade for the rebuilding of storage as slowly rising

EIA expects natural gas marketed production will temperatures requires less fuel for air conditioners

grow by an average rate of 3.0% in 2014 and 1.8% in compared with cold weather. The longer this

2015. Rapid natural gas production growth in the remains the case we could see a successful

Marcellus formation is contributing to falling rebuilding of storage levels back towards the US

natural gas forward prices in the Northeast, which Energy Information Administration's target of

often fall even with or below Henry Hub prices 3,500 billion cubic feet at the end of the injection

outside of peak winter demand months. season in October.

Consequently, some drilling activity may move

away from the Marcellus back to Gulf Coast plays

such as the Haynesville and Barnett, where prices Latest inventory reportare closer to the Henry Hub spot price. Liquefied

Last week's build in natural gas inventories was natural gas (LNG) imports have declined over the

greater than the market's expectation, which past several years because higher prices in Europe

indicated stronger demand or weaker supply than and Asia are more attractive to sellers than the

expected. Current natural gas inventories are relatively low prices in the United States. Several

roughly 45% lower than the average of the past five companies are planning to build liquefaction

years, as last winter brought extremely cold capacity to export LNG from the United States.

weather. Natural gas demand surged, which Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass facility is expected to

resulted in large depletions of inventories as well as be the first to liquefy natural gas produced in the

a rise in prices. The front month natural gas futures Lower 48 states for export. The facility has a total

contract was trading around $3.50 per MMBtu in liquefaction capacity of 3 Bcf/d and is scheduled to

early November to peak above $6.00 per MMBtu at come online in stages beginning in late 2015.

points in February and is currently at $4.50 per Natural gas prices will depend upon MMBtu. The markets will be watching to see how weather conditions and power generation natural gas inventories move through the spring demand coupled with its consumption and summer ahead of the peak winter demand pattern and inventory position in the season. Inventory levels that remain below average month of June 2014. could prime natural gas prices for a rally this coming

winter.

EIA Natural gas estimates

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption

EIA expects total natural gas consumption will

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Range

Natural gas

NYMEX $4.35- $4.70 per mmBtu

MCX Rs252-295 per mmBtu

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June 2014

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June 2014