-
This issue of the Satellite Applications Catapult’s quarterly
Small Satellite Market Intelligence report provides an update of
the small satellites launched in Q3 2019 (1st July - 30th September
2019). This edition also includes an article on the potential of
small satellites in GEO.
Q3
2019
SMALL SATELLITE MARKET INTELLIGENCEREPORT
-
02SMALL SATELLITES LAUNCHED IN Q32019
OVERVIEW After last quarter’s massive 154 satellites launched,
this quarter has returned to a more normal 62 small satellites
being launched, which is slightly above the average of the past 5
years. There was a total of 11 launches, four of these were by
small satellite launch vehicles and there was only one large
rideshare launch. The first launch of two small satellite
launchers, Hyperbola by iSpace and Jielong-1 by CASC, were
successful this quarter showing the increasing prevalence of small
satellite launchers. We are back to normal this quarter with no
major constellation launches, namely Starlink, with the largest
being Spire who added 7 Lemur-2 satellites to their constellation.
Not one company dominated the launches this quarter with the 62
satellites coming from 38 different entities. This year is still on
track to have the highest number of small satellites launched.
Note: The mathematical model line in the graph above (simulating
an accelerating market uptake followed by a levelling off)
represents a general trend and not a prediction per year.
-
03
APPLICATIONSApplications are defined by the primary objective of
the mission as categorised below:
• Communications: tthe objective of the mission is to transmit
or receive signals to/from a user terminal or gateway; Technology/
Scientific: the objective of the mission is to gather knowledge to
better understand physical phenomena or to test the functionality
of the payload or equipment;
• Earth observation/ Remote sensing: the objective of the
mission is to provide imagery or data relating to the Earth or its
atmosphere.
This quarter has been consistent with previous quarters/years in
terms of the proportion of applications being used in small
satellites, with the majority being Technology/Scientific
satellites closely followed by Earth Observation/Remote Sensing
satellites. This quarter there were no major constellations skewing
the statistic, with most large constella-tions involving
communication satellites, showing that continuing interest in
research and earth observation, and that they remain the primary
focus for small satellites. The number of Technology/Scientific
satellites shows the continued level of innovation in the
sector.
The 62 small satellites launched this quarter continue to show
the irregularity in the number of satellites launched per quarter,
with 13 and 154 launched in the first and second quarter
respectively. With no major constellation operators launching high
quantities of satellites, which also lead to a reduction in
rideshare opportunity, 62 small satellites is around the average
number of small satellites launched per quarter. In turn, the
continued irregularity in the number of satellites launches in each
quarter is mainly due to small satellites currently having to rely
on infrequent rideshare opportunities. SpaceX is promising a more
regular rideshare launches available from March 2020 along with the
new ventures in small launch vehicles bring more flexibility,
competition and accessibility for small satellites. There is still
projected to be more small satellites launched this year than any
previous year, with more constellation launches planned for Q4,
namely Starlink and OneWeb.
-
04SIZE AND MASS
This quarter shows the continued popularity in the
nano-satellite size category with it being the most common format
for small satellites this quarter. There have also been 12
pico-satellite launches, with the majority going to the Technische
Universität Berlin’s launch of 5 BeeSat’s, an experimental and
educational satellite. Pico satellites have been very popular with
educational and research institutes, with 9 of the 12
pico-satellites this quarter coming from Universities.
Micro-satellites have also been primarily used for earth
observation satellites with 11 of the 16 being used for that
purpose.
Satelliteclassification Satellitesubclassification Associated
wet mass range
Small Satellite < 500 kg Mini-satellite 100 kg - 500 kg
Micro-satellite 10 kg – 100 kg Nano-satellite 1 kg – 10 kg
Pico-satellite 0.1 kg – 1 kg
-
05ORBITS
Note: Launch failure includes orbit failures whereby the
satellites significantly missed their intended orbit to the
detriment of the mission.
This quarter saw the majority of small satellites launched into
Sun-Synchronous Orbit (77% of launches), the Soyuz launch, the only
large rideshare of the quarter, accounted for 32 satellites all
going to SSO. There was one launch failure of the Iranian Space
Agency’s Safir-1B, an Iranian small launch vehicle, who were
planning to launch their own micro-sat.
-
06LAUNCH ORGANISATION
LAUNCH
There were 11 launches from 9 different launcher families with
first time launches for iSpaces’ Hyperbola-1 and China CASC built
Jielong-1, with both these being in the emerging category of small
launch vehicles. Out of the 10 launch vehicles who launched small
satellites, 4 of them were purpose built small launch vehicles
showing success in a developing market, however they only accounted
for 12 of the 62 launched satellites.
A new category for the quarterly report, showing the change in
the organisations that are launching satellites. It shows the rapid
commercialisation of the small satellite sector with commercial
organisations being a part of over 60% of satellites being
launched. The academic and research organisation have had a reduced
share but still play a crucial part in the industry, whereas
government organisations have drastically lost their share of the
sector to commercial companies. This shows the increasing profits
to be made from and the potential of the small satellite
sector.
-
07SMALL SATELLITES IN GEO
INTRODUCTIONGeostationary Earth Orbit has been, and still is,
the domain of large multi-ton communications satellites, with the
companies behind them having vast budgets, global missions, and are
a consistent stake holder in the commercial space sector. The
satellite industry is evolving continually and on the leading edge
of innovation, small satellites have seen this impact more than any
other with their development of new smaller technologies and ever
decreasing cost of manufacture and launch, as well as small
satellites being used as the basis for the vast majority of
satellite research. This innovation has been clearly seen within
Low Earth Orbit, with the likes of SpaceX and OneWeb just starting
their respective ventures into mega constellations, but the growth
in small satellites has yet to be paired with the advantages GEO
may have to offer.
A few companies are trying to break the mould and are
recognizing a potential for utilizing the advancing small satellite
sector in a Geostationary Earth Orbit and disrupt the current
standard; they are seeking to combine the advantages that GEO
offers whilst mitigating its disadvantages with the booming
SmallSat technology growth to target new markets. These upcoming
ventures are not only by optimistic start-ups, but by experienced
organizations with the likes of Arianespace and Boeing hoping to be
early adopters.
This article aims to give an idea into some of the potential and
risk in using small satellites in Geostationary Earth Orbit and
will give an insight into the companies which are trying to fulfil
this idea as well as companies who are helping it become more
accessible.
Low Earth Orbit is increasingly accessible with launches
becoming cheaper and more flexible (especially with the recent
advent of small satellite launch vehicle manufacturers such as
Rocket Lab) whilst accessibility and cost reduction has not been as
dramatic with launches to GEO. Companies wanting to send small
satellites in GEO currently have to rely on inflexible and
irregular rideshare opportunities or hosted payloads. There are
some companies that are trying to make it easier for small
satellites. For example:
ArianeSpace1, the world’s first commercial space transportation
company, is trying to predict this new market with the announcement
of a new launch vehicle in the making, the GO-1. It will be
designed to provide access to GEO explicitly for the next
generation of small satellites and will accommodate multiple small
satellites with its 4500kg payload capacity, short wait time and a
transit to GEO duration of under 6 hours. They are planning to
‘pave the way for a SmallSat revolution in geostationary orbit’
offering the flexibility, efficiency and speed that small satellite
companies need to access GEO.
Momentus2 is another company preparing for an emerging market by
trying to lay the groundwork for the in-space transportation
sector; their satellite, planned for 2020, will be able to deliver
satellites directly from LEO to GEO, along with other orbital
choices, whilst trying to reduce the cost to reach specific orbits
as well as making access easier.
SpaceX3 has announced they will start providing more regular
launches from March 2020 with at least one per month at a reduced
cost. There are 29 launches scheduled between then and December
2021 that are available for rideshare missions, this should start
making the rideshare option more attractive due to its reliability,
frequency and cost.
These companies will add more routes for small satellites to
enter GEO which in-turn will reduce costs and add flexibility for
these companies, making it more of an attractive option.
1
https://www.arianespace.com/press-release/arianespaces-go-1-mission-will-provide-small-satellites-with-a-direct-flight-to-geostationary-orbit/2
https://momentus.space/3
https://spacenews.com/spacex-revamps-smallsat-rideshare-program/
HOW SMALL SATELLITES GET TO GEO
-
08
COMPANIES WANT TO USE SMALL SATELLITES IN GEO
6 https://www.ovzon.com/en/7
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2019-09-09-New-Boeing-702X-Satellites-Offer-Unique-Multi-Mission-Flexibility8
https://www.gsatcom.com/about9
https://www.satellitetoday.com/business/2019/06/19/exclusive-choi-teases-further-satellite-business-launch-after-saturn/
Astranis4,5 is using small GEO satellites to improve access to
internet connective in underserved areas, entering into a highly
competitive market. By using the cheaper and faster production of
small satellites it becomes economically viable to enter smaller
markets as well as allowing their service to be scalable, with
Astranis planning to add more satellites one by one. They have
recently announced a partnership with Pacific Dataport which plans
to make use of the first of its 300kg satellite to provide more
coverage and capacity over Alaska in 2020.
GapSat5 is a Hong Kong based company that fulfils short term
capacity shortages of satellites by identifying other satellites in
orbit which have excess unused capacity and reselling this surplus.
Instead of having to lease larger and higher capacity satellites
than needed to fill operators’ requirements for extra capacity,
they are making their service more efficient by launching their own
satellite, GapSat-1, with a mass of 250kg. The satellite,
manufactured by Terran Orbital, will allow the company to use its
capacity efficiently without having any idle excess capacity, this
is only viable to the lower cost of building and launching a small
satellite to GEO.
Ovzon6 and Boeing7 are both developing small GEO satellites,
however, not small enough to be under our definition of a small
satellite (< 500kg) but around 1000kg and under 2000kg
respectively which is a lot smaller than the typical GEO satellite
and considered small for the market. This shows a further interest
in downsizing the traditional GEO satellite model. Ovzon say the
small GEO approach is an economical way to concentrate the
satellite’s capacity in a small area with higher power levels for
which the customer can use smaller terminals for.
GSATCOM8 and Saturn Satellite Networks9 both aim to be the first
in building small satellite platforms for use in geostationary
Earth orbit. GSATCOM next generation is trying to offer
telecommunication solutions to be implemented on a small size
geostationary platform. While Saturn Satellite Networks is trying
to create the world’s first space qualified small GEO satellite
platform. Saturn say they’re aiming for a small, efficient,
lightweight and low-cost satellite platform that is accessible to
all especially for customers who only have smaller requirements and
needs.
Credit: Astranis / SpaceNews
-
9
CURRENT MARKET
Currently geostationary Earth orbit is occupied by large,
expensive satellites and Low Earth Orbit, although it is used by a
wide variety of satellite types, is dominated by cheaper smaller
satellites. Data from UCS10 shows an average Launch Mass of
Satellites going to GEO at over 4000kg, with the recent TelSat 19V
weight over 7 tonnes, whereas Low Earth Orbit is the destination
for over 95% of small satellites and they make up 70% of all
satellites in LEO. This shows the disparity of the two orbits.
Satellites in LEO are always expected to outnumber those in GEO
due to its cost and accessibility, however over the past 8 years
LEO has become significantly more popular compared to the share of
satellites being launched to GEO. The accessibility to GEO has not
had near the same increase as it has in LEO, and the risk in
capital of sending a satellite to GEO has remained very high.
Although innovation has remained high in GEO satellites, still
under 3% of the satellite launched into GEO and, also, under 4% of
large satellites have had technology development as a purpose. This
shows the difficulty in testing new GEO innovations in orbit, and
that great capital is needed and at risk to incorporated new
technologies.
A smaller form factor satellite comes with trade-offs in
propulsion capabilities (heavily relied upon due to GTO delivery) ,
data capacity, power and other factors in order to reduce its size;
this has made it difficult for small satellites to find
advantageous business cases compared to the current GEO satellites.
The larger more expensive satellites can also withstand long
mission lifetimes (around 15 years) to get their return on capital
expenditure whereas smaller satellites generally have under half
that lifetime. But with the current innovations in miniaturisation
in satellite technology, deployables and other GEO technologies,
the cost benefit of sending a small satellite to GEO is starting to
become a more viable business case.
10
https://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/space-weapons/satellite-database
-
10
WHY SMALL GEO SATELLITES
Competing with existing GEOs
In short, small satellites have the advantage is the lower
capital expense in build and launch along with a faster build time
at the sacrifice of capacity and power. Small GEO satellites do
have some niche competitive advantage over large multi-tonne GEO
satellites; however, the larger more expensive satellites would be
more cost effective in most markets and provide higher throughput
and capacity in most cases. The few perks of a smaller satellite
allow for use cases that may not be as economically feasible for
traditional GEO satellites: the ability to have a lower life span
of satellites and continually roll out newer satellites (Astranis
plan to only have a 7 year life span on their satellites, with
legacy models being over double this); the ability to be scalable
to the exact requirements of a region by rolling out more
satellites (even within the same orbital slot); the ability to fill
its satellites capacity easily (no idle capacity wasted) and serve
as a gap for existing GEO communication satellites when that
capacity is needed (a service GapSat is trying to provide). They
seem like they have an advantage over large GEOs however the cost
benefit of having a large satellite providing higher throughput and
greater coverage allows for more attractive cheaper service for
customers in a global market, so it is down to whether companies
can find a niche in the market where the advantages outweigh the
global powerful service that existing satellites provide.
Competing with LEOs
Small Communication GEOs satellites may perform a similar
overall function as their LEO counterparts however they become very
different in their product and roles in the market. Whilst LEO
communication requires a constellation of satellites to provide
consistent coverage of a location, a communication satellite in GEO
only needs one satellite for a service to function and more
satellites can be added when operations want to be scaled up. This
leads to lower risk as there is less capital expense before there
is a return on the investment, and the ability to focus on a
specific market instead of having to go for a global market. LEOs
do have the advantage of being able to provide much lower latency
and this is important for a few scenarios but for the primary basic
functions of data communication it is not wholly necessary.
-
11
Exploring new markets
Small GEOs have the more unique ability of viably being able to
focus on and solely serve customers who want more control and
independence over their communications; this gives extra security,
reliability and flexibility to customers who want this, the main
example would be governments who want their own satellite
communications but also their independence from large scale
globally operating satellites. The idea of focussing on a smaller
market is a strong case for small GEOs as the lower price point,
the reduction in development and manufacturing costs and the lower
launch cost with the ability to be a part of cheaper rideshares or
be the secondary payload, allow for the ability for smaller
satellites to find profits in areas that large satellite providers
would not find as economically attractive.
Global HTS Capacity Supply25,000
20,000
Gbps 15,000
10,000
5,000
02018 2028
Source: NSR
CAGR
- 26.4
%
Addit
ion of
17.3 T
bps
CONCLUSION
Innovation is constantly propelling the space sector and small
satellites have been and are still one of the key drivers of this
growth. However, this innovation has been restricted to Low Earth
Orbit and the development of small satellites has not seen its
presence higher up. There are some niche markets that have
potential for small satellites, with their lower cost bringing in
options for services that were not economical viable for larger
satellites. But outside of these niche markets they will struggle
to compete with the long-standing multi-tonne GEO satellites, which
can provide a much more cost-effective service with their larger
capacity and coverage. The continued furthering of launch
capabilities for small satellites to GEO will greatly help the
accessibility to this orbit and partnered with the fast development
of technology on small satellites there will be future
opportunities for small satellites in GEO. The past few years have
shown how the significant development in small satellites have been
used to exploit many new markets, but for now, GEO is a risky
venture with few specific use cases that could have potential and
it is up to the first few companies to pave the way and demonstrate
how close the emerging market is to coming to fruition.
11 https://www.nsr.com/are-small-geos-the-next-big-thing/
NSR11 are predicting that the global GEO-HTS capacity will have
a CAGR of 26.4% while this is very promising for HTS, NSR believes
it would be very easy for the sector to fall into an oversupply
problem. A continuous challenge for satellite operators who are
adding HTS capacity is finding the demand for their service to be
able to get the large return on their investment they need. So NSR
believes that small GEOs could gain traction by allowing operators
the option to adopt HTS in a more focus way and serve only their
core markets. With this growth in data supply and demand, small
GEOs are enticing due to their scalability, and their low capital
expenditure and low time-to-market allows for rapid adoption of new
technologies and the ability to get a first mover advantage.
Although they estimate large HTS payloads will generate the bulk of
the supply and be more cost efficient, Small GEOs will be able to
capture some opportunities presented by a fast-growing market which
has a diverse set of demands; Astranis’ planned operations in
Alaska is the perfect example of this.
-
012
Disclaimer: whilst every effort has been made to provide
accurate and up to date information, we recognise that this might
not always be the case. If any reader would like to contribute
edits or suggestions to our reports, kindly email the team and we
will make the amendments.
Q3
2019
ContactThe Small Satellite Market Intelligence report is
designed as a free data source to share information that is easy to
access and use. We welcome feedback on other data points that would
be of value to include. You can contact us at:
E: [email protected]: +44 (0) 1235 567999W:
sa.catapult.org.uk/small-sats-market-intel
Copyright © Satellite Applications Catapult Limited 2019All
rights are reserved. You may reuse reasonable portions of this
document provided that such reproductions are properly attributed
to us with: ‘Copyright © Satellite Applications Catapult Limited
2019’. Whilst we strive to ensure that the information is correct
and up to date, it has been provided for general information only
and as such we make no representations, warranties or guarantees,
whether express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.