Small Cells Americas: Opening Keynote

Crossing the chasm: Small cell industry 2015

Alan Law, Chair, Small Cell Forum

November 2015

Crossing the Chasm:

Innovators Early adaptors Early majority Late majority

Chasm

Plateau of productivity

Technology trigger Trough of disillusionment

Slope of enlightenment

Important new report includes data from: •  Market Status Report, Mobile

Experts, November 2015 – available exclusively to SCF members

•  Potential for small cells infrastructure-as-a-service in the US, iGR, Q3 2015

•  Small cell operator survey Q3 2015, Rethink Technology Research

Download the full report TODAY at scf.io

Crossing the Chasm: report published today

November 2015

•  Shipments rise from 4.05m to 10.37m units 2014-20

•  Enterprise important engine for growth – 110% upswing in 2015

•  Large urban rollouts starting in 2015, shipments up fourfold 2015

•  2014 – market matured; 2015 – growth accelerated

The big question is: ‘How do I monetize & deploy at scale?’

Argument for small cells has been won

November 2015

By 2020 small cells can achieve significant critical mass – installed base 7x macrocells. This means: •  Small cells will drive the RAN architectural

agenda •  Small cells at the heart of 5G and IoT •  Attractive volumes for whole ecosystem,

driving innovation This is a real turning point: Small Cells now own the debate

42,500,000

6,400,000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

Small cell Macrocell un

its

Seizing the opportunity

November 2015

7x more Small

Cells by 2020

•  Small Cell Forum (Phase 1) provided leadership for cooperation and addressing barriers

•  Small Cell Forum (Phase 2) is about supporting: •  new architectures •  new spectrum options •  new business cases •  new service models •  a broadening ecosystem •  real world use cases

Delivering needed industry knowledge through our new work program

Enterprise small cells

License-exempt spectrum

HetNet and SON

Virtualization

Multi-operator support

Delivering 5G and IoT

Our new work program: answering the question HOW?

November 2015

November 2015

•  Small Cell Forum achievement so far built on a single successful architecture and the main engine for immediate and continued growth

•  However, today no single architecture will suit huge range of future wireless use cases. A flexible approach is required to: •  address range of operator scenarios and services •  provide choice of architectures in line with spectrum, fiber, other considerations, while

maintaining underlying common standards

Meeting future network needs – broadening the remit

Base Station Densification Broader set of use cases NFV and SDN

Future generation deployments very different: Dense, automated, multiband, neutral host, separate layer, some virtualized Requires new approaches: •  Emergence of low-power radio heads, now

adopted within SCF definition •  First step in evolution towards virtualized

small cells with many split options •  Transition to virtualized RAN blurs

boundaries between conventional neutral-host DAS systems and new virtualized RAN architecture.

Today’s generation   Future generation  

Ad hoc, opportunistic   A well-planned second layer  

Small numbers   Dense  

Manually organized   SON  

Homogeneous cells   Move to Virtualization  

3G or LTE   Multimode including Wi-Fi  

Same spectrum as macro  

Many bands – including licence-exempt  

Single operator   Neutral host or shared ownership  

Meeting future network needs – optimized network architectures

November 2015

Key drivers to deploy small cells 2015-20: •  Cost capacity and

coverage still key •  Support new

revenue streams – eg. M2M

•  Harness new spectrum bands eg. 3.5GHz and above

•  First step to Virtualization

We will deliver workable architectures to address global drivers

Source: Rethink Technology Research November 2015

Building for the future

Small Cell Forum work program 2015/16

November 2015

Small Cell Forum – work program roadmap

Multi-operator

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2012

WI SI

LAA SC Wi-Fi with WBA

Home Enterprise

Urban Rural and Remote

Virtualization

License-exempt

HetNet & SON

R1 R2

R3 R4 R5

R5.1

R5.2 R6

definition of nFAPI China Mobile

Cisco, ip.access

Vodafone, Qualcomm

5G, IoT

Truphone, ip.access

AT&T, Ericsson, Airhop

Reliance Jio, Huawei

Kick-off

Deliverables Defined

Release

Enterprise Orange

Spidercloud, Huawei

R2

•  Installed base more than doubled 2015 (Source: Mobile Experts)

•  Wide target market – ie. from venues to factories to SoHo

•  62% of large US companies interested in small cells (Source: iGR)

•  Enterprise has higher than average interest in small cells for indoor coverage/voice, new services, IoT, Virtualization (Source: Rethink)

•  Drives new value chains – by 2020 only 20% of Enterprise small cells MNO-managed

286,350

639,327

0

100,000

200,000

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500,000

600,000

700,000

Q314 Q315

units

Enterprise: small cells enable a more effective Enterprise workforce

November 2015

+110% growth

during 2015

Many vRAN deployments will start in small cell layer •  43% of small cell deployers will also be

adopting Virtualization by 2018

Critical for Small Cell Forum members to drive this work: •  nFAPI work will define best splits and

create unified platform; and •  Enable new deployment models which

lower barriers – eg. ‘as a service’, per-AP licensing

Small Cell Virtualization – enabling new deployment models

Conventional small cell Virtualized small cell

MAC

FAPI P5 & P7

PHY

Vendor Ext nFAPI

P5 & P7

nFAPI P5 & P7

PHY

Vendor Ext

MAC

RF

Vendor Ext

nFAPI Interworking

November 2015

November 2015

Small Cell Forum drives interoperability and unity while supporting flexible use cases

Small cell Virtualization – answering the big questions

Topic Findings

What are the real business benefits of Virtualization in the RAN?

Identified centralization benefits, transport costs and MANO/automation elastic scaling capabilities

Are current small cell architectures well suited to Virtualization?

Yes – FAPI MAC/PHY decomposition well suited to provide Virtualization baseline

Can Virtualization deliver a phased roadmap – eg. aligned with longer-term 5G directions?

Yes – Flexible Virtualization over non-ideal transport now emerging as core 5G requirements

How do we ensure Virtualization supports innovation across a multi-vendor ecosystem?

SCF’s nFAPI workstream set to accelerate multi-vendor PNF/VNF interoperability

November 2015

Small cell Virtualization – deliverables and timelines

nFAPI Definition

nFAPI Demonstration

PDCP/RLC Recom’tions

(ETSI ISG NFV) PoC

nFAPI Std Ownership

VNF SVC API/MEC

Multi-operator Scoping

2017

Placeholder for SVC engagement

Placeholder for Multi-Op engagement

Kick-off

Deliverables Complete

2015 2016

PNF Management

ETSI-MANO Recom’tions NET

Board

IOP

RPH

R5.1 R6

•  SON becomes essential as networks density

•  By 2020, 40% of small cells deployed in hyper-dense environments (150 per km2)

•  SON must be interoperable and able to work with all technologies and with Virtualization

•  Absolute priority is to avoid fatal fragmentation – eg. Release 6 solutions and requirements, Plugfests, services API

HetNet and SON – enabling mass-market scale

November 2015

November 2015

•  Small Cell Forum best placed to drive unlicensed as it is small cell-specific in higher band

•  LTE in 5GHz – only applies to small cells •  25% of MNOs say leveraging unlicensed a top three driver to deploy small cells •  Work with Wi-Fi and other license-exempt technologies in unlicensed bands •  Work item includes FAPI support for LTE-LAA, Wi-Fi coexistence •  With 5G, look right up to 90GHz and beyond

Maximizing potential with unlicensed spectrum

LTE Unlicensed small cell

Unlicensed

Licensed Anchor

Carrier aggregation LTE/LTE-U

Work stream mission: “To make licensed radio small cells the preferred solution for vertical market, multi-operator solutions”

Work items include: •  Business case •  Existing and upcoming technology •  Regulatory •  Spectrum licensing – existing and

new licensing regimes •  Existing deployments – Why they

work and why aren’t there more of them?

Multi-operator/neutral host – delivering new opportunities

Serves all the building’s customers

Cheap to buy, install and maintain

Competitively worthwhile for MNO

Works at the highest traffic densities

Small Cell ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

Small Cell (multiple)

✓ ✗ ✓ ✓

MORAN ✓ ✗ ✓ ✗

DAS ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓

MOCN ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓

Wi-Fi ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

November 2015

•  Small Cell Forum playing a leadership role in 5G debate

•  IoT and 5G networks – many areas unclear but will certainly be small cell driven

•  Allow operators to differentiate on standard platform

•  Two key areas of Small Cell Forum activity – ultra-density and fully service-oriented networks with open APIs

•  Forum submitted vision to 3GPP •  Work with NGMN, ETSI, GSMA,

4G Americas

Maximizing future potential in IoT and 5G

Service oriented networks •  Enterprise use cases

•  Open API •  Edge services

Ultra dense networks •  Deployment •  Backhaul/fronthaul

arch •  HetNet & SON

NGMN, MEC (ETSI, GSMA), 5GPPP

November 2015

November 2015

•  Small Cell Forum has been successful in establishing deployments and growth – enable the ‘HOW’

•  Small cells are the primary method to address the capacity needs of the future

•  We are driving critical work for the industry as part of our Release Program (scf.io)

•  Join us: Shape the future of the small cells and the integrated HetNet

Join us – seize the opportunity

Crossing the Chasm: report published today

scf.io November 2015