Small Business & Agricultural Advisory Board Federal ......Small Business & Agricultural Advisory Council . Federal Reserve Bank of New York . 33 Liberty Street . New York, NY . Tuesday,

Small Business & Agricultural Advisory Board

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

AGENDA

10:30am

10:35am

Welcome, Jack Gutt, Executive Vice President

Introductory Remarks, Claire Kramer Mills, Assistant Vice President

10:40am-

11:10am

The National Economy, Richard Peach, Senior Vice President

11:10am-

11:40am

International Update, Matthew Higgins, Vice President

11:40am-

12:00pm

Regional Update, Jason Bram, Officer

12:00pm

12:15pm

12:15pm-1:55pm

Adjourn to NWC Room-10F

Lunch

Discussion with William Dudley, President and Michael Strine, First Vice

President

Your experiences can give us insight into current economic conditions.

Questions for discussion with President Dudley:

1. Have firms of your size and in your industry seen sales volume increase,

decrease, or stay the same in the first quarter of 2017?

2. Do you expect sales for firms of your size and in your industry to

increase, decrease, or stay the same in the second quarter of 2017?

3. Do you expect firms of your size and in your industry to increase

investment (plant & equipment) in the second quarter of 2017?

4. Have firms of your size and in your industry faced any recent shortage of

labor that has limited their ability to meet demand?

5. Do you expect firms of your size and in your industry to increase

employment this year? Why or why not?

6. Do you expect input prices for firms of your size and in your industry to

increase this year? Do you expect prices of products/services sold to

increase?

7. Over the past two quarters, have you noticed any financing changes for

firms of your size and in your industry? How have the terms and conditions

for obtaining financing changed (tightened, eased, not changed)?

2:00 pm Adjourn

Small Business & Agricultural Advisory Council Federal Reserve Bank of New York

33 Liberty Street New York, NY

Tuesday, April 18 2017

ATTENDEE LIST Council Members Michael Arnoff President Arnoff Moving & Storage Kevin Ellis Chief Executive Officer Cayuga Milk Ingredients Charles Feit President and Founder OnForce Solar

Gabriel Hernández Co-Founder and Head of Tax Division BDO Puerto Rico Patrick Marotta President and CEO Marotta Controls Waleska Rivera President Danosa Caribbean, Inc.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

William Dudley Michael Strine Jack Gutt Richard Peach Kausar Hamdani Matthew Higgins Anand Marri Claire Kramer Mills Jason Bram Julia Gouny Edison Reyes Angela Sun

President First Vice President EVP, Communications & Outreach SVP, Research & Statistics SVP, Communications & Outreach VP, Integrated Policy Analysis VP, Outreach & Education AVP, Outreach & Education Officer, Research & Statistics Officer, Executive Office Associate, Outreach & Education Associate, Legal

The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

US Macro Overview Richard Peach, Senior Vice President

Presented to Advisory Council on Small Business and Agriculture April 18, 2017

Overview • The US economy appears to be regaining its footing after suffering a

significant shock beginning in mid to late 2014. • US labor market is now showing classic signs of being at or near full

employment.

• Core inflation has edged higher over the past year but remains somwhat below the FOMC’s objective.

– Rent inflation continues to edge higher. – Health care price inflation has moved higher. – The rate of decline of core goods prices has begun to slow as past dollar appreciation

has largely worked its way through the system.

• Big policy question is whether fiscal stimulus could boost the economy’s

underlying trend growth rate.

2

-5-4-3-2-10123456

-5-4-3-2-10123456

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Growth of Real GDP Four Quarter Percent Change Four Quarter Percent Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

3

60

80

100

120

140

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Broad Trade-Weighted Exchange Value of US $ (right axis)

Nominal Trade-Weighted Value of US$ and Rig Count Active Oil Rigs Index

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Baker Hughes


Rig Count (left axis)

4

464748495051525354555657585960

464748495051525354555657585960

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Manufacturing Across Countries Index Level Index Level

Source: IHS Markit and Institute for Supply Management via Haver Analytics


EU

US

China

5

58

60

62

64

66

2

4

6

8

10

12

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Labor Market Indicators Percent Percent

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics


Unemployment Rate (Left Axis)

Labor Force Participation Rate

(Right Axis)

Employment to Population Ratio

(Right Axis)

6

80.0

80.4

80.8

81.2

81.6

82.0

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

2014 2015 2016 2017

Labor Force Participation Rate by Age Group Rate Rate


7 Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

55+ Years (Left Axis)

25-54 Years (Right Axis)

16-24 Years (Left Axis)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Employment Cost Index: Private Industry Workers 4 Qtr % Change 4 Qtr % Change



Benefits

Wages and Salaries

Total Compensation

8

-5-4-3-2-10123456

-5-4-3-2-10123456

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Nonfarm Business Sector Y/Y % Change Y/Y % Change



Unit Labor Cost

Implicit Price Deflator

9

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Total PCE

Core PCE

FOMC Objective

PCE Deflator

10

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CPI Inflation: Core Goods and Core Services 12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


Total Core CPI

Core Goods

Core Services

11

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Rental Vacancy Rate and Rent of Primary Residence Percent 12 Month % Change

Source: Census Bureau, BLS via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Rental Vacancy Rate

(Left Axis)

Rent of Primary Residence (Right Axis)

12

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Personal Consumption Expenditures: Health Care Price Index

12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Shading shows NBER recessions. 13

17% of total PCE deflator 19% of core PCE deflator

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

TIPS Based Inflation Expectations Percent Percent

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Note: Carry-adjusted

4-5 Years

2-3 Years

5-10 Years

April 13: 1.98

April 13: 1.80

April 13: 1.90

14

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Actual and Expected Fed Funds Target Percent Percent

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Actual

April 5, 2017

April 13, 2017

15

-0.75

0

0.75

1.5

2.25

3

3.75

4.5

-0.75

0

0.75

1.5

2.25

3

3.75

4.5

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Labor Force and Nonfarm Business Sector Real Output 20-Qtr %Change-annualized 20-Qtr %Change-annualized



Civilian Labor Force: 16+

Nonfarm Business Sector: Real Output per Hour of All

Persons

16

Reference Charts

17

Private Nonfarm Business Sector

1987-2015 1987-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2007 2007-2015 (compound annual growth rates)

Output 2.9 3.3 3.0 5.0 2.8 1.3

Hours Worked 0.9 1.7 1.3 2.1 0.2 0.2

Labor Productivity (1) 2.0 1.6 1.6 2.9 2.6 1.2

(percentage points)

Contribution to Labor Productivity from: TFP (2) 0.9 0.7 0.5 1.5 1.4 0.4 Labor Composition (3) 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 Capital Intensity (4) 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.5

(1) Output per hour worked.

(2) Output per combined units of labor input and capital services. (3) Labor composition multiplied by labor's share of current dollar costs.

(4) Capital services per hour multiplied by capital's share of current dollar costs.

Note: Labor composition measures the effects of shifts in the age, gender, and educational attainment of the work force on the efficiency of hours worked.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Preliminary Multifactor Productivity Trends-2015", May 5, 2016.

18

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Real Private Investment Share of Real GDP Percent of GDP Percent of GDP

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics


Nonresidential Fixed Investment

Structures

Equipment

Intellectual Property

19

00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.822.22.4

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

22.22.4

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Private Investment Over Depreciation Ratio Ratio



Equipment

Structures


20

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Growth of Net Private Nonresidential Capital Stock Y/Y Growth Rate Y/Y Growth Rate



Net Stock

Equipment Structures


21

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Quarterly data1980Q1 – 2007Q4

Equipment Investment Spending and Capacity Utilization Real Business Investment in New Equipment (% Change – Year to Year)

Real Business Investment in New Equipment (% Change – Year to Year)

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Manufacturing Capacity Utilization (Percent of Capacity)

2016 Q4:

(75.0, 0)

22

20-years 15-years 10-years 5- years

Q1 -0.9 -0.8 -1.4 -0.6

Q2 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.1

Q3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8

Q4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2

Average Percentage Point Deviation from Average Quarterly Real GDP Growth Rate

23

1

Global Economic Outlook

Small Business and Agricultural Advisory CouncilMatthew Higgins, 18 April 2017

The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

Roadmap

Recent signs of stronger global growth− Temporary rebound or return to stronger trend?

Advanced economies’ struggle to escape “lowflation”

Political risk in Europe

Implications of potential U.S. trade restrictions

2

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Percent SAAR

Global GDP Growth and Composite PMI

GDP Growth

Composite PMI

Correlation = 0.84

Sources: Eurostat, Markit Economics

Q153.7

Diffusion Index

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

01-15 04-15 07-15 10-15 01-16 04-16 07-16 10-16 01-17 04-17

Percent positive or negative*Citigroup Economic Surprise Indexes

Advanced Economies

Emerging Economies

*Weighted by series’ historical FX impact

3

2

3

3

4

4

11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Percent, CY/CY

Evolution of Global Market Growth Forecasts

20142013

2015

2012

Sources: Blue Chip Economics, Consensus Economics. Figures are GDP-weighted averages for five AEs (with the euro area country as one) and 25 EMEs.

2016

2017 2018

40.0

42.5

45.0

47.5

50.0

52.5

55.0

57.5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Diffusion Index

Global Manufacturing PMI

Source: MarkitEconomics.

Average 2004 – 2008:Q1 = 53.7

Average 2012 – 2016:Q3 = 50.9

53.0March

4

-12.5

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Percent SAAR, rolling 3-mo. basis

Global Industrial Production Growth

Source: CPB World Trade Monitor.Data exclude construction.

Average 2005 – 2008:Q1 = 4.8

Average 2011 – 2016:Q3 = 2.2

Jan.5.1

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Percent SAAR, rolling 3-mo. basis

Global Trade Volume Growth


Average 2005 – 2008:Q1 = 7.4

Average 2011 – 2016:Q3 = 1.9

Jan.9.9

5

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Percent change, annualized 3-mo. basis

Manufacturing Inventories, Asia ex. China

Sources: METI, KOSTAT, MOEA, Haver Analytics. Data are in real terms, and are a weighted average for Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

Feb.-1.8

20

40

60

80

100

120

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17

$U.S./bl.

Global Commodity Prices

Indexes, 2014:01 = 100

Brent crude (RHS)

Metals (LHS)

Softs (LHS)

6

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Indexes, 2008:Q1 = 100

Global Industrial Production Performance

Advanced

China

EM Asia ex. China


228

97

127

Other EMEs 102

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

12 13 14 15 16 17

Percent change from year ago

G-3: Core Consumer Price Inflation

Japan

U.S.

Euro Area

Sources: BEA, Eurostat, BoJ. U.S. inflation measured using the PCE index.

1.8

0.8

0.1

7

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Percent change from year ago

G-3: Unemployment Rates

Japan

United States

Euro Area

Sources: BLS, Eurostat, Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. NAIRU estimates from Congressional Budget Office, European Commission and Bank of Japan.

Official NAIRU estimates

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

01-15 04-15 07-15 10-15 01-16 04-16 07-16 10-16 01-17 04-17

Basis points, 5-yr. treasuries vs. bundsEuro Area Sovereign Spreads

France

Spain

Source: Reuters

Italy

8

U.S. Merchandise Trade by Partner ( $U.S. bn. )

Country or Region Exports Imports Balance

World 1,455 2,189 -734

Canada 269 278 -10Mexico 231 294 -64Euro area 200 326 -126Asia ex. China, Japan 194 280 -86South America 137 108 29China 116 463 -347OPEC* 69 67 2Japan 63 132 -69Europe ex. EMU, UK 63 103 -40United Kingdom 55 54 1

Miscellaneous 63 84 -21

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Figures are for the 12 months through December2016. * Excluding Venezuela.

( values for 2016, $U.S. bn. )

Exports Imports

Total 266 278

Capital Goods ex Autos 69 33

Motor Vehicles and Parts 58 65

Passenger Cars 14 45

Auto Parts and Trucks 44 19

Industrial Supplies 77 120

Consumer Goods 35 18

Food and Beverages 23 24

Other 10 19

U.S. Merchandise Trade with Canada

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

9

( values for 2016, $U.S. bn. )

Exports Imports

Total 231 294

Capital Goods ex Autos 81 86

Motor Vehicles and Parts 33 107

Passenger Cars 4 24

Auto Parts and Trucks 30 84

Industrial Supplies 78 31

Consumer Goods 14 37

Food and Beverages 16 24

Other 8 8

U.S. Merchandise Trade with Mexico

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

on U.S. Imports from Mexico ( percent )

NAFTA MFN*

Total 0.1 3.3

Capital Goods ex. Autos 0.1 0.8

Motor Vehicles and Parts 0.1 6.0

Passenger Cars 0.0 2.6

Auto Parts and Trucks 0.1 6.9

Industrial Supplies 0.1 1.4

Consumer Goods 0.2 3.2

Food and Beverages 0.0 3.9

Other 0.1 0.1

Current and Hypothetical MFN Tariffs Rates

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; United States International Trade Commission. * Implied MFN tariff rate is derived from duties actually paid in 2016 on U.S. imports from Brazil, China, Japan, and the EU, weighted to reflect the commodity composition of imports from Mexico.

10

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

U.S. Trade Balance with MexicoUSD Bn USD Bn

Source: Census Bureau; OECD; Koopman et al. The upper and lower bounds of the adjusted manufacturing balance are derived using estimates of the share of U.S. value-added in bilateral Mexican imports from Koopman, Powers, Wang, and Wei (2010) and the OECD TiVA database, respectively.

ManufacturingTrade Balance

Manufacturing Balance At

Value Added

High Estimate

Low Estimate

Overview of the Regional Economy Jason Bram, Research Officer

Presented to Advisory Council on Small Business and Agriculture April 18, 2017 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

Private-Sector Job Trends Percent Change From Previous Peak to January 2017

Down Flat to up 3% Up 3% to 7% Up more than 7%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.

Down Flat to up 3% Up 3% to 7% Up more than 7%

1

Private-Sector Job Growth Percent Change From January 2016 to January 2017

Down Flat to up 1.25% Up 1.25% to 2% Up more than 2%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 2

80

90

100

110

120

130

2007 2008 2009

Shading indicates NBER recession

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

New York

New Jersey

New York City

Puerto Rico

Regional Economic Activity Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI)

Index (Dec2007=100) 140

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Feb

Dec

3

88

92

96

100

104

108

116 112

120

2007 2008 2009 2016 2017 2018

Private-Sector Employment


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

New York

New York City

United States

New Jersey

Puerto Rico

Mar

Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100)


Feb

4

88

92

96

100

104

108

116 112

120

2007 2008 2009 2016 2017 2018



2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Orange-Rockland-Westchester

New York City

Long Island

United States

Fairfield

Mar



Feb

5

88

92

96

100

104

108

2007 2008 2009

Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index

Index (Dec2007=100) 120 116 112



2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

United States

Upstate Rochester

Buffalo

Syracuse

Mar

Feb

6

88

92

96

100

104

108

2007 2008 2009


120 116 112



2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

United States

Upstate

Utica Glens Falls

Albany


Mar

Feb

7

NYC Finance and Securities Sectors’ Share of NYC Employment and Earnings

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW). 8

3% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5%

11%

22% 25%

19% 10%

10% 8% 8% 7%

10%

11%

10%

11%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1972 1987 2001 2007 2015 1972 1987 2001 2007 2015

NYC Earnings NYC Employment

Finance Ex-Securities Securities

Shading indicates time between securities

peak and trough

Securities Employment

(left axis) Total Employment Minus Securities

(right axis)

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2,500

2,750

3,000

3,250

3,500

3,750

4,000

4,250

NYC Securities Employment Seasonally Adjusted Levels

Feb

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY calculations.

Thousands Thousands

9

Total Employment Minus Securities

(right axis)

Securities Employment

(left axis)

160

180

200

220

240

260

JAN09 JAN10 JAN11 JAN12 JAN13 JAN14 JAN15 JAN16 JAN17 JAN18 3,500

3,660

3,820

3,980

4,140

4,300

Recent NYC Securities Employment Seasonally Adjusted Levels

Thousands Thousands

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY calculations.

Feb

10

NYC Tech Employment in Select Industries Number of Payroll Jobs, 2007 and 2015

11

3,272

4,568

1,507

5,382

4,444

39,706

13,174

4,028

10,508

5,412

7,746

28,496

62,556

15,509

Computer Manufacturing

Electronic Shopping

Software Publishers

ISPs; Search Portals; Data Processing

Internet Pub, Web Search Portals Etc.

Computer Systems Design & Related

Scientific R & D Services 2007

2015

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and FRBNY Staff Calculations.

Trends in NYC Tech Employment Employment Levels in Thousands

12

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Thousands

NYC Tech

Manhattan Tech

Jun

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and FRBNY Staff Calculations.

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2007 2008 2009

FRBNY Business Surveys, Current Conditions Diffusion Index

60



2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Business Leaders Survey

Current Economic Conditions

Mar

13

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2007 2008 2009

FRBNY Business Surveys, Conditions Six Months Ahead Diffusion Index

60 Empire State

Manufacturing Survey



2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Business Leaders Survey

Future Economic Conditions

Mar

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan 2017 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2016

Perc

enta

ge D

istr

ibut

ion

of R

espo

nses

Survey Conducted in …

Up more than 4 percent

Up 2-4 percent

Up 2 percent or less

No change

Decrease


Business Leaders Survey (Service Firms)

Expected Percent Change in Salaries for Existing Workers

15 Source: FRBNY Supplementary Survey Jan. 2017 https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/business_leaders/2017/2017_01supplemental.pdf

Expected Percent Change in Salaries for New Workers

16 Source: FRBNY Supplementary Survey Jan. 2017 https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/business_leaders/2017/2017_01supplemental.pdf

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan 2017 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2016

Perc

enta

ge D

istr

ibut

ion

of R

espo

nses

Survey Conducted in …

Up more than 4 percent

Up 2-4 percent

Up 2 percent or less

No change

Decrease


Business Leaders Survey (Service Firms)

New York State Wages by County Average Weekly Wages, 2016Q2

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NY State Dept, of Labor

$750 or Less $750 to $850 $850 to $950 $950 or More

U.S. Average=$989 NY State Average=$1,210

17

Regional Recap • NYC has led the regional economy in growth; upstate NY and

northern NJ have lagged, while PR remains in a deep slump.

• The Lower Hudson Valley has kept pace with the nation in job growth, while Fairfield County has lagged.

• The securities industry, which typically drives NYC’s economy has been flat during this rapid expansion.

• The city’s tech sector has picked up some of the slack.

• Businesses have grown more upbeat about the economy and have become a bit more inclined to raise wages.

18

Supplementary Charts on Housing Markets

60

70

80

90

100

110

2006 2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

New York State

United States

NYC Metro

Downstate NY

Upstate NY

Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted

Index (Mar2006=100) 120

Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).

Feb

60

70

80

90

100

110

2006 2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

United States

NYC Metro

Northern NJ Newark Metro New Jersey


Index (Mar2006=100) 120


Feb

60

70

80

90

100

110

2006 2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

United States

NYC Metro

Fairfield

Westchester

Rockland


Index (Mar2006=100) 120


Feb

60

70

80

90

100

110

2006 2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Dutchess-Putnam

United States

NYC Metro

Kingston MSA


Index (Mar2006=100) 120


Feb

60

70

80

90

100

110

2006 2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

United States

Bergen

Passaic

Essex

Union


Index (Mar2006=100) 120


Hudson

Feb

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2006 2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

United States

Albany Rochester

Upstate NY

Buffalo


Index (Mar2006=100) 130


Feb

60

80

100

120

140

2006 2007 2008 2009

United States Shading indicates NBER recession

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Suffolk

Kings

Nassau Queens

Manhattan


Index (Mar2006=100) 160


Feb

Small Business & Agricultural Advisory Board Federal ......Small Business & Agricultural Advisory Council . Federal Reserve Bank of New York . 33 Liberty Street . New York, NY . Tuesday,

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