bkp DEVELO PMENT RESEARCH & CO NSULTING REINFORCING THE CAPACITIES OF EAST AFRICA TO IDENTIFY, DEVELOP AND PROMOTE PPPs FOR INFRASTRUCTURE Small and Micro PPPs in Africa: Mariana ABRANTES de Sousa Validation Workshop 09 and 10 August 2012 Mombasa Beach Hotel Mombasa, Kenya
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bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
REINFORCING THE CAPACITIES
OF EAST AFRICA TO IDENTIFY,
DEVELOP AND
PROMOTE PPPs FOR
INFRASTRUCTURE
Small and Micro PPPs in Africa: Mariana ABRANTES de Sousa
Validation Workshop
09 and 10 August 2012
Mombasa Beach Hotel
Mombasa, Kenya
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
Public infrastructure investment gap in Africa
Can telecom success be replicated
The economics of public investment and PPP projects
Forms of PPP and the Project Cycle
Project phases
Project risks
PPP examples – sectors
Sources of project funding
Project starting points
Project roles
Project pipelines
Project identification exercise
2
Agenda
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
Public investment needs in Africa over the
next 10 years: USD 50 bn, excl. telecom
Services of General Economic Interest Recent past: Large scale telecom absorbed 74% of the investment in the
82 PPP projects the five EAC countries 1990-2011, (according to PPIAF)
Future: smaller and micro scale, replicable
Transportation
Water and sanitation (municipal and rural)
Energy production and distribution
Irrigation and water resource management
Agri-business value chain integration and food security
Social Services
Education
Health
3
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
4
International Banks Crédit €25 miln
6 anos, Euribor+1,5%
ONDD ECA Belgium
Siemens Bélgica Supplier
Vodafone Shareholder 40%
African Trade Insurance Agency
TELKOM Kenya
Shareholder 60% Safaricom Ltd
Kenya 2004
Clients
FRN KES 4 biln (€30 miln)
5 year, BT91dias+1%
State
License
Citibank Nairobi e
New York
Guarantee
75%
Guarantee
70%
Coverage
50%
Coverage
75% commercial risk
97,5% political risk
Funding
Capital €20 miln
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
Telecom in Africa: Can success be
replicated in other sectors?
Large but modular scale
Imported innovative technology with ECA funding
International management skills
International regulatory standards
Economies of scale and falling prices boosted
user airtime volume and affordability
Low collection risks and costs with pre-paid
services (pioneered by TMN in Portugal in 1995)
Closed network, cancellation of (non-essential)
services acceptable
5
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
Public services operators are
different…
• Natural monopolies, scale and network effects
• Essential public services cannot close down (nor go out of business)
• Asymmetric risk sharing, creditors and suppliers not usually exposed to risk of loss, State must always pay
• No one is indifferent to public services – Numerous, vocal Skakeholders
– Key subject for party politics, protests
=> Need to compensate for the absence of market discipline
6
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
Sofia
2005
7
Public vs. Collective Goods & Services
Public
Constitutional definition
Economic definition, public interest
Collective, indivisible
Social and economic infrastructure
Externality
Equitable access, first necessity
Cost of context for economy
Economies of scale, natural monopolies
Political definition
Government responsibility
Citizen demands, public opinion
Impact on election, legitimacy
Private
Divisable
Individual demand, consumption
Market supply, demand
Allocation and access by price
Private responsibility
Private supply except in centralized economy, high inflation, rationing
May have economies of scale, scope
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
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Economic determinants in public services provision
9- 6 ports User tariffs Operating subsidy Investment subsidy
Paying for Public Services: operating vs. capital expenses
User tariff affordability vs. Taxpayer subsidy sustainability
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
PPP families – sources and uses of funds
12
Who pays ? User paid Taxpayer paid Mixed
User/Taxpayer
Services only Opex PPP
(services) concession of existing
infrastructure, operating leases,
affermage
Out-sourcing services
Co-payments, Output Based Aid
Joint ventures Collaborations
Works only Capex PPP
Greenfield PFI , BOT, shadow tolls,
availability payments
Works & Services PPP
Greenfield or expansion PPP,
concession, toll roads, ports, etc
PPP concession PPP concession,
investment and/or operating subsidies
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
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Selection
Preparation
Structuring
Financing
Budgeting
Procurement
Contracting
Execution
Construction
Operations
Monitoring
Evaluation
Reversion
Pre-FEASIBILITY
Identify user needs (traffic
study)
Tariff affordability
Technical solution, capex
and opex
Contracting OPTIONS
Market sounding
Sources of financing
Financial
modelling
Scenarios
User revenues
Budget
subsidies
Financing
criteria
Competitive
procurement
Tender
Standardized
contract
Land
expropriation
Rights of way
Cost control
Inputs
Entry into
service
Tariff
collections
Quality control
Outputs
Inspections
Verifications
Audits
Evaluation
OUTCOMES
Policy alignment
Stakeholder
consultation
Consensus
Objectives, targets,
indicators
Due diligence
Risk analysis,
allocation
Arrange
financing
Budget impact
Final approvals Control, cost,
quality
Ttime
Miletstones
Collections
Maintenance
Reporting
Reimbursem-
ent
Impact
Benefits
Sustainability
Continuity
Guarantees
Risk
management
Financial close
Contract
signing
Disbursemen
t
Defects
Stakeholder
relations
Renewal
Renegotiation
PPP Project Cycle - Phases
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
Concessionnaire SPV Banks
Insurers Contractor Operator
Port Concessions State Grantor (Condedente)
Concession Contract
Capital
Financing contract
Direct Agreement
Insurance Policies
Sales contracts
Shareholders
Construction Operation Contracts
Port Regulator
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
Privatization Joint ventures Collaborations
Duration
Valu
e / C
om
ple
xit
y
Works Contract Outsourcing 3-5 years
Works Concession
BOT, PFI & FBOT
15-25 years
Services concession Operating Contract Leases, affermage 5-15 years
PPP
(Works & Services)
Hard facilities
Soft facilities
Services
Forms of PPP
Management Contract 5-10 years
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
1. A multi-year (administrative) very long term contract by which …
2. the public partner (Concedant/Grantor, the State or Municipality or other unit of Public Administration) transfers to…
3. the private partner or concessionaire …
4. the obligation to build and/or operate the public infrastracture and to provide a public service of a given quality to …
5. the public service users or the Grantor/Concedente itself…
6. together with the right to charge or receive fees in remuneration of the services rendered…
7. to be paid by the users or by the Grantor/Concedant (taxpayer) itself, over time…
8. with the private partner assuming responsability for the financing of the infrastructure and services by banks
Public Private Partnerhip / Concession
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
Comparing: Public Works Concession
Public partner Any Government entity State or Municipality
Scope Construction to physical
specifications
Provision of infrastructure and
public services
Duration 1-5 years 20-30 years
Procurement
methods
All International tender, competitive
dialog
Rights of State,
public partner
Infrastructure delivered on time
and within budget
Provision of services to users, or
the State itself
Project changes Extra works paid directly Unilateral modifications subject
to Rebalancing over 30 year
tenor
Rights of private
partner
Revision of contract price to
reflect inflation
Financial rebalancing
Govt financing On Govt budget, Govt debt Govt investment subsidy,
operating subsidy only over time
Risk sharing, transfer
to private partner
TCC fixed price contract can
transfer some risks to builder
Must transfer construction risk,
and either traffic or availability
risk
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
Preparation and Tender Project overdimensioned to traffic forecasts Skewed selection criteria Inadequate analysis of risks to State-
grantor, environmental Few bidders, inadequate proposals Unclear tender specifications Slow tender process or suspension Lack of consultation and involvement of
Stakeholders
Structuring and Contracting, due diligence
• Low levels of experience of State project managers and negotiations Excessive flexibility or rigidity Very tight deadlines for decision, especially
on public side Non standardized contacts, unbalanced or
unrealistic risk allocation Frequent changes in Government policies
and sector programs
Construction and execution
Delays on various sides Unilateral modifications and variation
orders with additional costs, incremental CAPEX which threatens cost/benefit of project
Poor risk management Frequent tacit approvals
Operating, maintenance, monitoring USER insatisfaction, protests Low demand, traffic shortfall User fees increases Increase in operating costs, OPEX Frequent financial rebalancings paid
by the State Lack of reporting and low
transparency
Project Cycle - Risks and Threats
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
Example 1 - Maternal Health Vouchers
Needs: to improve maternal health and reduce mortality
Project concept: OBA subsidized voucher for “outputs”— “safe
delivery” (SD) including 4 prenatal visits, attended delivery and one
post-natal visit, screening for STDs. Pilot 2006
Payment: User co-payment of 3,000 shillings, voucher costing 60,000-
200.000 shillings
Service providers: Accredited local clinics, community distributors
tender to Trandint Limited for lowest price of $270,000 in Busembatia
Financing:
Subsidy of $300,000 from ADA, for connection costs (one off)
$100,000 loan from bank
GPOBA provided funding for capital investment costs to support
the private operator
Advisor: IFC, since 2007
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
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The need : To raise crop yields of TEF , an African “orphan crop” which is the most widely cultivated cereal in Ethiopia The project concept : Joint research to develop “semi-dwarf” plants that won’t topple over The operator: Various non-profit partners, including University of Berne, Switzerland with Ethiopian researcher, Research institute in Kenya, Ethiopian field research Funding: SFSA Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture Tef (Eragrostis tef, from the sorghum/millet family) is an African “orphan” crop, little studied because of limited international trade. The plant is well adapted to the climatic and soil conditions in Ethiopia, and the he seeds contain high levels of protein are free of gluten. Also working with Borlaug Global Rust Initiative on a new wheat rust which first appeared in Uganda, and developing farm insurance in Kenya
Example 6 - International Tef Improvement Research Project
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
Example 7- Water micro-financing in
periurban aereas
Needs: Potable water
Project concept: small scale water operations,
installing household or yard connections, based on
user tariffs
Contract: to CBOs, 13 sub-projects
Financing, average US$ 83,000
Output based donor subsidies, EU for connections
PPIAF-PDF investment subsidy for major capex capital
expenditure
Local micro finance institutions, local bank
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bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
Example 8 – Business Development
Services (BDS)
Needs: Coffee Farmers Cooperative needs to improve
quality and yields and create brand
Project concept: To strengthen competitiveness and raise
added value with business development services (BDS),
Fairtrade certification and linkages to markets
Contract: Marketing company to pre-finance farm inputs,
to recover from coffee sales. BDS providers selected
competitively.
Financing: Pilot Value Chain Grant from Matching Grant
Fund (MGF)
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bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
Example 9: Small scale passenger services,
urban vs. rural
Regional Government Municipality
matatu
Microfinance Insurer
Common carrier licenses, duration, (non) exclusive routes, subsidies
(Int’l) Funds
Exclusivity Subsidy
Rural only chapa dala dala
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
Example 10– Unsolicited proposals
Private proponent identifies need and presents
project (technical) concept to Public Authority
PA either rejects the techncial concepts or asks
proponent to prepare feasibility study
If technical proposal is accepted, PA issues
request for tenders (including financial proposal)
Original proponent may, or may not, enjoy advantage
ex. right of first refusal, bonus points, etc
If award goes to new bidder, original proponent is
reimbursed for feasibiltiy study as per pre-approved
cost
Contract details disclosed, full transparency
32
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
Public / Collective goods in agriculture
Tangible
Irrigation, drainage and
flood control systems
Drip irrigation kits
Collective storage
facilities, accredited
Resource
management, water
rights, grazing lands
Forestation
Intangible
Small producers
organization and
aggregation
Supply chain integration,
from purchasing to market
Certification of origin,
quality, organic, Fairtrade,
branding
International market
access 33
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
34
• The export company Target Agricultures trains 320 farmers in organic production (dried pineapple & papaya) in Sri Lanka and commits itself to accept their produce for export.
• Fair organizer BioFach trains and organizes organic food producers and creates a Centre of Excellence in Brazil.
• DaimlerChrysler supports smallholder production of natural fibers for auto seats, creates a processing cooperative in the Philippines and supports the development of alternative fibre products.
• Fruta del Pacífico trains 600 farmers in ecological banana production and helps to set up a farmers cooperative in Ecuador.
• Deichmann introduces social and environmental standards in Indian supply chain for shoe production. • Seda & Fibras establishes silk production in Paraguay, including the forestation of mulberry trees and
family-based cocoon production, targeting 2000 families. • Kraft Foods introduces a national quality standard for coffee production in Peru, trains advisers and
helps to set up a national certification system. • Cosmetics producer Wala introduces organic rose production in Romania, trains 250-300 farmers, commits
to fix purchasing prices and helps to build up an organic farmers association and a certification system. • Unilever Bestfoods rehabilitates out-dated state-owned tomato processing plant in Ghana,
transfers ownership to farmer families and commits to pre-established prices for tomato products. • A Flower Importers Association introduces a flower label program which establishes and certifies social
and environmental standards in flower production in Zimbabwe and Kenya http://www.fao-ilo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/fao_ilo/pdf/DonorApproachestoPro-PoorValueChains.pdf
Examples of pro-poor value chain projects funded by the PPP facility and implemented by GTZ
Cearly defined, short, proposal for an public or collective service , which will
Improve the quality of life for users, project participants and beneficiaries
Be appropriately dimensioned, modular
Calibration of user tariffs for O&M Opex cost recovery, after investment subsidy, or complemented by SMART /OBA operating subsidies
The ability of the promoter to receive and apply money as intended (bank account, annual audits, track record)
An explanation of how the work can become self-supporting or can find local sources of support, after donor funding ends
Alignment of the project with MDGs and Government policy, compatibility with donor principles Local self-reliance, community governance , participatory decision making
Production geared toward local consumption, food security first
Mutual Support and Accountability - Beneficiaries organized in a group which offers support and accountability to its members
Description of the experience of the project team or coordinator.
bkp DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & CONSULTING
49
Exercise Phase I: Identifying, prioritizing, and
building consensus regarding PPP projects
Good PPP investment planning starts with a diverse project pipeline:
Your task: Working in groups of 3-4 people, and based your local knowledge, please take 10
minutes to identify 1-2 projects to present to other Stakeholders, the Authorities and
potential promoters, investors and/or donors. Prepare to deliver a 2-minute “elevator
speech” presenting your project to the group, which will vote to classify it as priority I, II or III.
For each project, please detail, if possible:
Public service or collective need (beneficiaries, location), outputs that can be identified and
objectively measured, volume and predictability of demand, alignment with MDGs and
Government sector policies
Project concept: scope of services, with/without construction/capex , O&M opex