Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences Distorting probabilities in actuarial sciences Arthur Charpentier Université Rennes 1 [email protected]http ://freakonometrics.blog.free.fr/ Montréal Seminar of Actuarial and Financial Mathematics, McGill, Nov. 2010. 1
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences
Montréal Seminar of Actuarial and Financial Mathematics, McGill, Nov. 2010.
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 1 DECISION THEORY AND DISTORTED RISK MEASURES
1 Decision theory and distorted risk measures
Consider a preference ordering among risks, � such that1. � is distribution based, i.e. if X � Y , ∀X L= X Y
L= Y , then X � Y ; hence,we can write FX � FY
2. � is total, reflexive and transitive,3. � is continuous, i.e. ∀FX , FY and FZ such that FX � FY � FZ , ∃λ, µ ∈ (0, 1)
such thatλFX + (1− λ)FZ � FY � µFX + (1− µ)FZ .
4. � satisfies an independence axiom, i.e. ∀FX , FY and FZ , and ∀λ ∈ (0, 1),
FX � FY =⇒ λFX + (1− λ)FZ � λFY + (1− λ)FZ .
5. � satisfies an ordering axiom, ∀X and Y constant (i.e.P(X = x) = P(Y = y) = 1, FX � FY =⇒ x ≤ y.
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 1 DECISION THEORY AND DISTORTED RISK MEASURES
Theorem1Ordering � satisfies axioms 1-2-3-4-5 if and only if ∃u : R→ R, continuous, strictlyincreasing and unique (up to an increasing affine transformation) such that ∀FX and FY :
FX � FY ⇔∫Ru(x)dFX(x) ≤
∫Ru(x)dFY (x)
⇔ E[u(X)] ≤ E[u(Y )].
But if we consider an alternative to the independence axiom4’. � satisfies an dual independence axiom, i.e. ∀FX , FY and FZ , and ∀λ ∈ (0, 1),
FX � FY =⇒ [λF−1X + (1− λ)F−1
Z ]−1 � [λF−1Y + (1− λ)F−1
Z ]−1.
we (Yaari (1987)) obtain a dual representation theorem,Theorem2Ordering � satisfies axioms 1-2-3-4’-5 if and only if ∃g : [0, 1]→ R, continuous, strictlyincreasing such that ∀FX and FY :
FX � FY ⇔∫Rg(FX(x))dx ≤
∫Rg(FY (x))dx
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 1 DECISION THEORY AND DISTORTED RISK MEASURES
Standard axioms required on risque measures R : X → R,– law invariance, X L= Y =⇒ R(X) = R(Y )– increasing X ≥ Y =⇒ R(X) ≥ R(Y ),– translation invariance ∀k ∈ R, =⇒ R(X + k) = R(X) + k,– homogeneity ∀λ ∈ R+, R(λX) = λ · R(X),– subadditivity R(X + Y ) ≤ R(X) +R(Y ),– convexity ∀β ∈ [0, 1], R(βλX + [1− β]Y ) ≤ β · R(X) + [1− β] · R(Y ).
– additivity for comonotonic risks ∀X and Y comonotonic,R(X + Y ) = R(X) +R(Y ),
– maximal correlation (w.r.t. measure µ) ∀X,
R(X) = sup {E(X · U) where U ∼ µ}
– strong coherence ∀X and Y , sup{R(X + Y )} = R(X) +R(Y ), where X L= X
and Y L= Y .
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 1 DECISION THEORY AND DISTORTED RISK MEASURES
Proposition1IfR is a monetary convex fonction, then the three statements are equivalent,– R is strongly coherent,– R is additive for comonotonic risks,– R is a maximal correlation measure.
Proposition2A coherente risk measureR is additive for comonotonic risks if and only if there exists adecreasing positive function φ on [0, 1] such that
R(X) =∫ 1
0φ(t)F−1(1− t)dt
where F (x) = F(X ≤ x).
see Kusuoka (2001), i.e. R is a spectral risk measure.
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 1 DECISION THEORY AND DISTORTED RISK MEASURES
Definition1A distortion function is a function g : [0, 1]→ [0, 1] such that g(0) = 0 and g(1) = 1.
For positive risks,Definition1Given distortion function g, Wang’s risk measure, denotedRg , is
Rg (X) =∫ ∞
0g (1− FX(x)) dx =
∫ ∞0
g(FX(x)
)dx (1)
Proposition1Wang’s risk measure can be defined as
Rg (X) =∫ 1
0F−1X (1− α) dg(α) =
∫ 1
0VaR[X; 1− α] dg(α). (2)
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 1 DECISION THEORY AND DISTORTED RISK MEASURES
More generally (risks taking value in R)Definition2We call distorted risk measure
R(X) =∫ 1
0F−1(1− u)dg(u)
where g is some distortion function.
Proposition3R(X) can be written
R(X) =∫ +∞
0g(1− F (x))dx−
∫ 0
−∞[1− g(1− F (x))]dx.
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 1 DECISION THEORY AND DISTORTED RISK MEASURES
risk measures R distortion function g
VaR g (x) = I[x ≥ p]Tail-VaR g (x) = min {x/p, 1}PH g (x) = xp
Dual Power g (x) = 1− (1− x)1/p
Gini g (x) = (1 + p)x− px2
exponential transform g (x) = (1− px) / (1− p)
Table 1 – Standard risk measures, p ∈ (0, 1).
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 1 DECISION THEORY AND DISTORTED RISK MEASURES
Here, it looks like risk measures can be seen as R(X) = Eg◦P(X).Remark1Let Q denote the distorted measure induced by g on P, denoted g ◦ P i.e.
Q([a,+∞)) = g(P([a,+∞))).
Since g is increasing on [0, 1] Q is a capacity.
Example1Consider function g(x) = xk. The PH - proportional hazard - risk measure is
R(X; k) =∫ 1
0F−1(1− u)kuk−1du =
∫ ∞0
[F (x)]kdx
If k is an integer [F (x)]k is the survival distribution of the minimum over k values.
Definition2The Esscher risk measure with parameter h > 0 is Es[X;h], defined as
Es[X;h] = E[X exp(hX)]MX(h) = d
dhlnMX(h).
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 2 ARCHIMEDEAN COPULAS
2 Archimedean copulas
Definition3Let φ denote a decreasing function (0, 1]→ [0,∞] such that φ(1) = 0, and such thatφ−1 is d-monotone, i.e. for all k = 0, 1, · · · , d, (−1)k[φ−1](k)(t) ≥ 0 for all t. Definethe inverse (or quasi-inverse if φ(0) <∞) as
is a copula, called an Archimedean copula, with generator φ.
Let Φd denote the set of generators in dimension d.Example2The independent copula C⊥ is an Archimedean copula, with generator φ(t) = − log t.
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 2 ARCHIMEDEAN COPULAS
The upper Fréchet-Hoeffding copula, defined as the minimum componentwise,M(u) = min{u1, · · · , ud}, is not Archimedean (but can be obtained as the limit ofsome Archimedean copulas).
Set λ(t) = exp[−φ(t)] (the multiplicative generator), then
Note that it is possible to get an interpretation of that distortion of theindependence.
A large subclass of Archimedean copula in dimension d is the class ofArchimedean copulas obtained using the frailty approach.
Consider random variables X1, · · · , Xd conditionally independent, given a latentfactor Θ, a positive random variable, such that P (Xi ≤ xi|Θ) = Gi (x)Θ whereGi denotes a baseline distribution function.
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 2 ARCHIMEDEAN COPULAS
The joint distribution function of X is given by
FX (x1, · · · , xd) = E (P (X1 ≤ x1, · · · , Xd ≤ Xd|Θ))
= E
(d∏i=1
P (Xi ≤ xi|Θ))
= E
(d∏i=1
Gi (xi)Θ
)
= E
(d∏i=1
exp [−Θ (− logGi (xi))])
= ψ
(−
d∑i=1
logGi (xi)),
where ψ is the Laplace transform of the distribution of Θ, i.e.ψ (t) = E (exp (−tΘ)) . Because the marginal distributions are given respectivelyby
Fi(xi) = P(Xi ≤ xi) = ψ (− logGi (xi)) ,the copula of X is
C (u) = FX
(F−1
1 (u1) , · · · , F−1d (ud)
)= ψ
(ψ−1 (u) + · · ·+ ψ−1 (ud)
)This copula is an Archimedean copula with generator φ = ψ−1 (see e.g. Clayton(1978), Oakes (1989), Bandeen-Roche & Liang (1996) for more details).
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 3 HIERARCHICAL ARCHIMEDEAN COPULAS
3 Hierarchical Archimedean copulas
It is possible to look at C(u1, · · · , ud) defined as
Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 3 HIERARCHICAL ARCHIMEDEAN COPULAS
U1 U2 U3 U4 U5
φ1
φ3
φ2
U1 U2 U3 U4 U5
φ1
φ3
φ2
Figure 2 – Copules Archimédiennes hiérarchiques avec deux constructions dif-férentes.
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 3 HIERARCHICAL ARCHIMEDEAN COPULAS
Example3If φi’s are Gumbel’s generators, with parameter θi, a sufficient condition for C to be aFNA copula is that θi’s increasing. Similarly if φi’s are Clayton’s generators.
Again, an heuristic interpretation can be derived, see Hougaard (2000), with twofrailties Θ1 and Θ2 such that
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 4 DISTORTING COPULAS
4 Distorting copulas
Genest & Rivest (2001) extended the concept of Archimedean copulasintroducing the multivariate probability integral transformation (Wang, Nelsen &Valdez (2005) called this the distorted copula, while Klement, Mesiar & Pap(2005) or Durante & Sempi (2005) called this the transformed copula). Considera copula C. Let h be a continuous strictly concave increasing function[0, 1]→ [0, 1] satisfying h (0) = 0 and h (1) = 1, such that
is a copula. Those functions will be called distortion functions.Example4A classical example is obtained when h is a power function, and when the power is theinverse of an integer, hn(x) = x1/n, i.e.
Dhn(C) (u, v) = Cn(u1/n, v1/n), 0 ≤ u, v ≤ 1 and n ∈ N.
Then this copula is the survival copula of the componentwise maxima : the copula of
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 4 DISTORTING COPULAS
is an i.i.d. sample, and the (Xi, Yi)’s have copula C.
A max-stable copula is a copula C such that ∀n ∈ N,
Cn(u1/n1 , · · · , u1/n
d ) = C(u1, · · · , ud).
Example5Let φ denote a convex decreasing function on (0, 1] such that φ(1) = 0, and defineC(u, v) = φ−1(φ(u) +φ(v)) = Dexp[−φ](C⊥). This function is an Archimedean copula.
Example6A distorted version of the comonontonic copula is the comonotonic copula,
Example7Following the idea of Capéraà, Fougères & Genest (2000), it is possible to constructArchimax copulas as distortions of max-stable copulas. In dimension d = 2, max-stable
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 4 DISTORTING COPULAS
copulas are characterized through a generator A such that
C(u, v) = exp[log(uv)A
(log(u)log(uv)
)]Here consider φ an Archimedean generator, then Archimax copulas are defined as
C(u, v) = φ−1[[φ(u) + φ(v)]A
(φ(u)
φ(u) + φ(v)
)]In the bivariate case, h need not be differentiable, and concavity is a sufficientcondition.
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 4 DISTORTING COPULAS
With nonconcave distortion function, distorted copulas are semi-copulas, fromBassan & Spizzichino (2001).Definition4Function S : [0, 1]d → [0, 1] is a semi-copula if 0 ≤ ui ≤ 1, i = 1, · · · , d,
S(1, ..., 1, ui, 1, ..., 1) = ui, (3)
S(u1, ..., ui−1, 0, ui+1, ..., ud) = 0, (4)and s 7→ S(u1, ..., ui−1, s, ui+1, ..., ud) is increasing on [0, 1].
Let Hd denote the set of continuous strictly increasing functions [0, 1]→ [0, 1]such that h (0) = 0 and h (1) = 1, C ∈ C,
is a copula, called distorted copula.Hd-copulas will be functions Dh (C) for some distortion function h and somecopula C.d-increasingness of function Dh (C) is obtained when h ∈ Hd, i.e. h is continuous,
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 4 DISTORTING COPULAS
with h (0) = 0 and h (1) = 1, and such that h(k)(x) ≤ 0 for all x ∈ (0, 1) andk = 2, 3, · · · , d (see Theorem 2.6 and 4.4 in Morillas (2005)).
As a corollary, note that if φ ∈ Φd, then h(x) = exp(−φ(x)) belongs to Hd.Further, observe that for h, h′ ∈ Hd,
The survival copula of the conditional distribution is the copula of
(U1, · · · , Ud) given U1 <F 1(t)︸ ︷︷ ︸u1
, · · · ,underbraceF d(t)ud
where (U1, · · · , Ud) has distribution C , and where Fi is the distribution of Ti
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 6 APPLICATION TO AGING PROBLEMS
Let C be a copula and let U be a random vector with joint distribution functionC. Let u ∈ (0, 1]d be such that C(u) > 0. The lower tail dependence copula of Cat level u is defined as the copula, denoted Cu, of the joint distribution of U
conditionally on the event {U ≤ u} = {U1 ≤ u1, · · · , Ud ≤ ud}.
6.1 Aging with Archimedean copulas
If C is a strict Archimedean copula with generator φ (i.e. φ(0) =∞), then thelower tail dependence copula relative to C at level u is given by the strictArchimedean copula with generator φu defined by
φu(t) = φ(t · C(u))− φ(C(u)), 0 ≤ t ≤ 1,
where C(u) = φ−1[φ(u1) + · · ·+ φ(ud)] (see Juri & Wüthrich (2002) or C & Juri(2007)).
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 6 APPLICATION TO AGING PROBLEMS
Example8Gumbel copulas have generator φ (t) = [− ln t]θ where θ ≥ 1. For any u ∈ (0, 1]d, thecorresponding conditional copula has generator
φu (t) =[M1/θ − ln t
]θ−M where M = [− ln u1]θ + · · ·+ [− ln ud]θ .
Example9Clayton copulas C have generator φ (t) = t−θ − 1 where θ > 0. Hence,
hence φu (t) = C(u)−θ · φ(t). Since the generator of an Archimedean copula is uniqueup to a multiplicative constant, φu is also the generator of Clayton copula, withparameter θ.
Theorem3Consider X with Archimedean copula, having a factor representation, and let ψ denotethe Laplace transform of the heterogeneity factor Θ. Let u ∈ (0, 1]d, then X givenX ≤ F−1
X (u) (in the pointwise sense, i.e. X1 ≤ F−11 (u1), · · · ., Xd ≤ F−1
d (ud)) is an
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 6 APPLICATION TO AGING PROBLEMS
Archimedean copula with a factor representation, where the factor has Laplace transform
where C is a copula, and h ∈ Hd is a d-distortion function.
Assume that there exists a positive random variable Θ, such that, conditionallyon Θ, random vector X = (X1, · · · , Xd) has copula C, which does not depend onΘ. Assume moreover that C is in extreme value copula, or max-stable copula (seee.g. Joe (1997)) : C
(xh1 , · · · , xhd
)= Ch (x1, · · · , xd) for all h ≥ 0. The following
result holds,Lemma1
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 6 APPLICATION TO AGING PROBLEMS
Let Θ be a random variable with Laplace transform ψ, and consider a random vectorX = (X1, · · · , Xd) such that X given Θ has copula C, an extreme value copula.Assume that, for all i = 1, · · · , d, P (Xi ≤ xi|Θ) = Gi (xi)Θ where the Gi’s aredistribution functions. Then X has copula
CX (x1, · · · , xd) = ψ(− log
(C(exp
[−ψ−1 (x1)
], · · · , exp
[−ψ−1 (xd)
]))),
whose copula is of the form Dh(C) with h(·) = exp[−ψ−1 (·)
].
Theorem4Let X be a random vector with anHd-copula with a factor representation, let ψ denotethe Laplace transform of the heterogeneity factor Θ, C denote the underlying copula, andGi’s the marginal distributions.
Let u ∈ (0, 1]d, then, the copula of X given X ≤ F−1X (u) is
CX,u (x) = ψu
(− log
(Cu
(exp
[−ψ−1
u (x1)], · · · , exp
[−ψ−1
u (xd)])))
= Dhu(Cu)(x),
where hu(·) = exp[−ψ−1
u (·)], and where
– ψu is the Laplace transform defined as ψu (t) = ψ (t+ α) /ψ (α) whereα = − log (C (u∗)), u∗i = exp
[−ψ−1 (ui)
]for all i = 1, · · · , d. Hence, ψu is the
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Arthur CHARPENTIER, Distortion in actuarial sciences 6 APPLICATION TO AGING PROBLEMS