Slide final

TABLE OF CONTENT

Impacts on Stock Market

Situation of interest rate

Forecasting on Thursday

1. Interest rate in Vietnam

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Text Deposit rate

Inter-bank offered rate

Prime rate

Loan rate

Discount rate

1. Interest rate Situation

2008 – late 2010 & early 2011 From March 2011

Banks’ race → Interest rates

soared

SBV intervened → Interest rates decrease Resolution No. 11/NQ-CP dated 24/2/2011

1. Interest rate Policy

Release date

No. of Circular

Key points

Sight & term < 1 m Terms ≥ 1 m

Mar 3rd 2011

02/2011/TT-NHNN ≤ 14%

Sep 28th 2011

30/2011/TT-NHNN 6% 14%

Mar 13th 2012

05/2012/TT-NHNN 5% 13%

April 11th 2012

08/2012/TT-NHNN 4% 12%

1. Interest rate INFLUENCES

Less investments in deposits Real estate & Stock market recover (hopefully)

Lower interest rates → Curb inflation (questionable)

1. Smart Money

Gold

Foreign Exchange

Real Estate

Deposits

In VND: decreasing interest rate In foreign currencies: low interest rate

‘Frozen’ market

Lack of experiences, knowledge & financial capacity

Decreasing price

1. Smart Money

Stock Market: increase positively

VN Index: increase

Stocks of Real Estate: increasing price, government’s guidance

2. VN-Index

• 1st March: 430 points• 5th March: soared to 460 points before declining to only 420 in 8th Apr• After the 13th March event: recovered stock market Reach a peak of 460 points in 26th March 15th April, highest level at 470 among 6 month- period

2. VN-Index

Traded VolumeRemain the fairly high level Ensure the liquidity of market During March & April: range from 100 million to 150 million a day (compared to Feb: under 50 million a day)

Considerably higher compared to 2011’s level

2. HNX Index

Increasing trend Reach a peak of 8O points in 26th March (the greatest number in 6 months), after cutting interest rate announcement Continue to go up to more than 80 points at the middle of April

2. SAM

SACOM Development & Investment Corporation A leading telecommunication cable manufacturer in Vietnam Expanding its business to other scopes, mainly in real-estate, tourism and financial investment

2. SAM

A remarkable increase from March to April In March: start at 5,700 VND, going up to nearly 7,000 VND 9th April: Rise to approximately 7,000 Continued to soar by massive 30% to a peak of nearly 9,000 VND in 17th April

An erratic period but the trend was obviously upward

2. SAM

Volume standing at the greatest level

• Highest point of massive 7.3 million in 18th March

• In comparison with mere 1.4 million in the 2nd of April

Dropping in the interest rate, especially Circular No13 in use, SAM in

particular and real estate firm or real estate firm in general have showed a

great improvement which was expected for a long time

Market Tomorrow

Long term perspective

Short term perspective

3. Long term perspective

3. Marco Factors REVIEW

Banks Securities firms

Real Estate

GOOD NEWS Reducing interest rate: cap 12%

Reducing CPI m-o-m

Reducing risk factor of RE: 250%

to 150%

Q1 financial reports look good

Many firms go broke

Utilities prices: UP

BAD NEWS

FACTORED IN PRICE

3. Market review: April 23 - 25

3. Market review: April 23 - 25

CONClusion

• Real estate sectors are benefited from Circular 13• Sec firms are attracted also

"Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die of

euphoria."-- Sir John Templeton

Market is in bullish period

3

VNI & HNX indices are up gradually but firmly, however it still raises hope for buyers

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION