Slide 1 Use of Satellites for Risk Management Presentation to WGISS-32 Budapest, 27 September, 2011 Dr. Guy Séguin (CSA) Co-leader, GEO Task DI-06-09 CEOS.

Slide 1

Use of Satellites for Risk Management

Presentation to WGISS-32Budapest, 27 September, 2011

Dr. Guy Séguin (CSA)Co-leader, GEO Task DI-06-09

CEOS Disaster SBA Coordinator

Andrew EddyCEOS Disaster SBA Team Secretary

Slide 2

2

Outline• Background

• Objectives

• Disaster Cycle

• Phase-by-Phase Approach

• Methodology

• Example – Floods

• Issues

Slide 3

Background

• GEO Workplan 2009-11 includes task to address “Use of satellites for risk management”: DI-06-09

• DI-06-09 to address all four phases of disaster management: mitigation, warning, response and recovery and to examine user requirements and system architecture for a global multi-hazard approach

• UN-SPIDER recognizes the critical importance of compiling user requirements, and can serve as a bridge between space and disaster management communities

Slide 4

4

Objectives

• Help space community understand specific needs of disaster management community, as well as operational mechanisms and interactions (local, provincial and national)

• Collect information on needs of users to establish requirements

• Establish requirements for ‘virtual constellation’ of satellites to address each phase of disasters, working through existing bodies such as International Charter and CEOS

Slide 5

5

Disaster Cycle

Slide 6

6

Tailored Solutions for Each Phase

• For Response, broaden International Charter by inviting GEO Member states to designate authorized users; encourage new Charter membership

• For Mitigation/Warning/Recovery, use pilot project approach with selection of regional champions that can integrate satellite data; organize volunteer contributions on mission-by-mission basis; define global “baseline” imaging scenario

Slide 7

Work to date

• System Architecture Group (CSA Chair )• Participants from ASI, CSA, DLR, ESA, NASA, UN-

SPIDER, International Charter, GEO Secretariat, Athena Global

• User Requirements Group, in conjunction with UN-SPIDER (UNOOSA Chair)• 25 participants from range of civil defense

organizations, international organizations (ISDR, UN-OCHA, CDERA, ADPC), space agencies and private sector – presentations to broader conference and validation of results (80 people)

Slide 8

Outcomes to Date• Produced user requirements report for multi-hazard

disaster management (floods, windstorms, earthquakes, landslides, wildfires and drought) for all phases

• Buy-in to process from large representative user body (including civil defense, international organizations)

• Commitment from space agencies to provide support to modeling scenarios, and to work towards solution in context of CEOS

• Agreement in Principle with International Charter:• Mechanisms for broadening of Authorized User community

(those that activate the Charter during response) or equivalent mechanism to include all GEO Member States

• Advice sought on how to better access archived data to support other phases (beyond response)

Slide 9

What did we do? Part 1, User requirements…

• Establish user requirements (for each disaster type and phase):• Identify region of interest (priority areas)• Identify target characteristics (what do we want to

see?)• Identify temporal revisit period• Establish timeliness/latency requirements• Identify end use for data by intermediate user

(application, service, etc)

Slide 10

• Establish architecture requirements (for each disaster type and phase):• What type of satellite data? (SAR, optical, altimetry,

etc)• Number of satellites and coverage mode? • Ground segment• Application

• Roll-up across all disaster types to establish overall requirements of virtual constellation

• Simulate architecture options

What did we do? Part 2, Architecture options…

Slide 11

©The World Bank – Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis

Example – FloodsStarting Point – World Bank Risk Analysis

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User Requirements Roll-up – Floods

Phase

Requirements

Mitigation Warning Response Recovery

Target/data Topography

Hydrological models

Historical atlas of floods

Flood models/simulations

New infrastructure, houses

Land-use classification

Monitoring of dikes and dams

Precipitation

Water level (rivers, lakes)

Weather forecast

Soil moisture

Snow-water equivalent

Signs of catastrophic infra failure

Water level (rivers, lakes)

Extent of flood

Status of critical infrastructure

Weather forecast

Status of critical infrastructure

Damage assessment

Flooded areas

Revisit 1 to 3 years (imagery)

5 to 10 yrs (topography)

Daily or better during high risk period

Daily in early morning; twice daily if possible

Weekly (major floods) for several weeks to several months

Timeliness Weeks Hours Hours (2-4 max) 1 day

End use Integration in land use planning/zoning

Baseline for response

Decision support for warnings & evacuation

Situational awareness

Resource allocation support

Initial damage assessment

Tracking affected assets

Charting progress

Slide 13

Architecture Requirements – Floods (I)Phase

Requirements

Mitigation Warning Response Recovery

Data type Low res DEM for flow rates (radar, stereo, laser)

Higher res DEM (DTED-2 or better) for extent and location (radar, stereo, laser)_

Medium to high res (scale, other image sources, urban/rural) Optical or radar overlay (geo-coded, ortho-rect.)

Archived imagery of previous floods

Interferometric analysis of subsidence (and other changes)

Met sats

Precipitation radar

X, C or L-band SAR 10-50m data

Passive microwave (for soil moisture)

Hi res optical upstream for slow flood

Altimeters

Interferometric analysis of subsidence (and other changes)

Precipitation radar

X, C or L-band SAR 10-50m data (extent of flood – large areas) ; higher res radar and optical for urban areas or flash floods (damage)

Met

Altimeters

Med to high res optical and radar

Interferometric coherent change maps

Coverage and revisit

Continuity of existing optical and radar missions (need to develop background mission coverage in areas on flood map)

Daily coverage in regional areas affected

Pre-dawn or dawn required

Daily early morning coverage in regional areas affected

Continuity of existing optical and radar missions

Slide 14

Architecture Requirements – Floods (II)

Phase

Requirements

Mitigation Warning Response Recovery

Potential data source

SRTM (background)

SRTM DTED-2, Tandem-X DTED-3, Cosmo, etc….

GPM

3-4 radar satellites on same orbit; 2-3 satellites using same frequency in same orbits

Optical: comparable?

3-6 radar satellites on same orbitOptical hi res (2 or more)

2 radar satellites using same frequency

Optical hi res (1)

Ground segment

(need for development)

Using existing ground segments Fast download, fast tasking (northern/southern stations, geostationary com links)

Very fast download and tasking (northern/southern stations, geostationary com links)

Using existing ground segments

Application Integration with risk map

Land cover maps

Information used for bulletins and evacuation, warnings

Situational awareness products

Tracking affected assets

Slide 15

Gap Analysis

• Key measurements and key measurement parameters identified by Disaster SBA Team using architecture analysis

• Gaps being identified now for floods

• Flood analysis will be presented to CEOS and planning for other disaster types to included in new GEO Workplan implementation

Slide 16

Disasters SBA Team Instrument Type Rqmts

Slide 17

Preliminary Instrument Types Analysis

• http://ceos-sysdb.com/CEOS/db_includes/sp_flood.php• Mini-database of instruments that are of the 4 instrument types• Need to eliminate ones that have already flown

Slide 18

Preliminary Instrument Types Analysis, cont’d

• http://ceos-sysdb.com/CEOS/db_includes/sp_flood_instr_timeline.php

• Timeline analysis by Instrument Type depicts preliminary gaps• Click on number to see a list of those instruments• Then click on instrument for all the details• Need to add spatial resolution and repeat cycle to the lists

Draft only: incorrect data!

Slide 19

Preliminary Instrument Types Analysis, High Res Optical Imagers

• After considering the revisit requirements, there are gaps for this instrument type

• Need to account for spatial resolution

• Only considers those instruments in the DB with a repeat cycle number; if it was blank it was not considered. Results not completely accurate

Draft only: incorrect data!

Slide 20

Preliminary Measurement Analysis

• Soil moisture at the surface

• Precipitation

• Vegetation cover

• Snow cover

• Snow water equivalent

Draft only: incorrect data!

Slide 21

Example of one day coverage of selected satellites (Envisat, ERS-2, RADARSAT-1 and ALOS)

Issues

• Insufficient frequency of observations of various satellite types (radar, optical, altimeters, etc)

• Harmonization of platforms

Slide 22

Next Steps• Within CEOS context, ensure contributions from

space agencies towards pilot projects• Identify champions within each disaster

community of practice and choose regional pilot projects to demonstrate the effectiveness of satellite imagery for full cycle management• Two NASA-led pilots up and running: CSDP and

Namibia Flood and Health Pilot

• Joint workshop proposed to WGISS on disasters architecture

• Disaster SBA Team to plan roadmap for new GEO workplan 2012-2015 implementation