Slide 1 Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb08 Dust Modelling Workshop, Reading U., 26 February 2008 Modelling dust aerosols for the ECMWF IFS J.-J. Morcrette,

Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08

Slide 1

Dust Modelling Workshop, Reading U., 26 February 2008

Modelling dust aerosols for the ECMWF IFS

J.-J. Morcrette, A. Benedetti, L. Jones, J.W. Kaiser, O. Boucher1, S. Kinne2

ECMWF, Reading; 1 MetOffice, Exeter; 2 Max-Planck Institute, Hamburg

• As part of the GEMS project (Global Environmental Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ

measurements) ECMWF is developing a version of its assimilation/forecast system

including aerosols

• Here emphasis is put on the forward modelling of dust aerosols

• 3-bin representation: 0.03 – 0.55 – 0.9 – 20 mm (representing roughly 10, 20 and 70% of the

mass of dust aerosols)


Slide 2

Dust production - 1Based loosely on

- Marticorena and Bergametti, 1995

- Ginoux et al., 2001

- Engelstaedter and Washington, 2007

Delineation of areas likely to be sources of dust aerosols by- Soil moisture in first model layer: sm1

- Fraction of bare soil within a model grid: fbs

- Total albedo: a

- UV-vis albedo (< 0.7 m; from MODIS): auv

- Wind at lowest model level (lml = 10m) v

- Wind at lml but including gustiness: vg

- Dust emission potential: dep


Slide 3

Dust production - 2

Delineation of areas likely to be sources of dust aerosols by:- Lifting threshold speed

lts = f( sm1 , bin mean particle radius)

- Wind factor: v = v or vg

v3 = ( v – lts ) * v2

Two possible formulations:

if ( land .and. v > lts .and. fbs > 0.1) then

if (a < 0.5 .and. 0.08 < auv < 0.5 ) then

flux= dep(i) * auv * v3

endif

endif

if ( land .and. v > lts .and. fbs > 0.1) then

if (sm1 < 0.2 sm1sat) then

flux = C * dep(i) * (1-sm1) * v3

endif

endif

Soil moisture-based

Albedo-based


Slide 4

80°S80°S

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exlz: 32R2_all_08_playSU_2: 3 2 12h-cycling GFED 8-daySunday 1 June 2003 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Sunday 1 June 2003 12UTC Model Level 8 **Experimental product

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0.02

0.05

0.1

0.15

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0.25

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1.2

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exnq: 32R2_all_08_playSU_2: 3 2 12h-cycling GFED monthFriday 1 June 2007 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Friday 1 June 2007 12UTC Model Level 32 **Experimental product

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0.02

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

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0.4

0.5

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

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eysl: 32R2_all_08_playSU_5b: 3 2 12h-cycling GFED monthFriday 1 June 2007 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Friday 1 June 2007 12UTC Model Level 32 **Experimental product

0

0.02

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

80°S80°S

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ez8f: 32R2_AER_05cA: 3 2 12h-cycling GFED monthFriday 1 June 2007 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Friday 1 June 2007 12UTC Model Level 32 **Experimental product

0

0.02

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.8

1

1.2Tau 550 nm DU only

“original” June 2003 “original” June 2007

Revised DEP June 2007 Revised DEP + gusts June 2007


Slide 5

Forward modelling of aerosols As part of the GEMS project, the IFS has been modified to include prognostic aerosols

(sea-salt SS, dust DU, organic OM and black carbon BC, sulphate SU).

Sources for SS and DU are linked to some of the model surface parameters (U10, soil moisture, UVis albedo, stdev orography, snow mask, gustiness).

Sources for OM, BC and SU are taken from climatologies and/or inventories (GFEDm, GFED8d, SPEW, EDGAR databases).

Aerosols are transported by advection, vertical diffusion and convection, and undergo their specific processes, i.e., sedimentation, dry deposition, wet deposition by large-scale and convective precipitation, and for OM and BC hygroscopic effects.

The TL159 L60 model has been simulating aerosols for the 2003-2004 GEMS-AER

reference period (with climatological and 8day OM, BC and SU emissions).

Comparisons with observational data (MODIS, CloudSat/CALIPSO, AERONET).

Since 1 June 2007, the ECMWF operational model is used for experimental near-real time 72-hour aerosol forecasts, at TL159 L91, and without any analysis.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/inspect/catalog/research/gems/aer/optical_depth/


Slide 6

An experimental version of ECMWF IFS now produces in near-real time a 72-hour forecast (FC only, no analysis yet) of the total optical depth for an ensemble of aerosols (sea-salt, desert dust, organic matter, black carbon, and sulphate)

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

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tau550: pre-oper vers.0Tuesday 8 January 2008 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+39 VT: Wednesday 9 January 2008 15UTC Model Level 1 **Experimental product

0

0.1

0.17

0.25

0.32

0.39

0.46

0.54

0.61

0.68

0.75

0.83

0.9

3

Total optical depth 550 nm 20080108_00 + 39hr


Slide 7

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

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tau550 SS3b+DU3b: pre-oper vers.0Tuesday 8 January 2008 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+39 VT: Wednesday 9 January 2008 15UTC Model Level 8 **Experimental product

0

0.1

0.17

0.25

0.32

0.39

0.46

0.54

0.61

0.68

0.75

0.83

0.9

3

“natural” = SS+DU

80°S80°S

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tau550 2OM+2BC+1SU: pre-oper vers.0Tuesday 8 January 2008 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+39 VT: Wednesday 9 January 2008 15UTC Model Level 56 **Experimental product

0

0.1

0.17

0.25

0.32

0.39

0.46

0.54

0.61

0.68

0.75

0.83

0.9

3

“anthropogenic” = OM + BC + SU


Slide 8

Assessment

Comparison with MODIS-derived aerosol optical depth at 550 nm

Comparison with CALIPSO-derived cloud and aerosol masks

Comparison with AERONET aerosol optical depth at various wavelengths


Slide 9

MODIS

IFS

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exlz TotTau: SS3b+DU3b+2OM+2BC+1SU: GFEDv2_8dTuesday 1 July 2003 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Tuesday 1 July 2003 12UTC Model Level 1 **

0

0.1

0.17

0.25

0.32

0.39

0.46

0.54

0.61

0.68

0.75

0.83

0.9

3

MODIS July 2003

Sum 12hr-FCs July 2003


Slide 10

MODIS

IFS

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exlz TotTau: SS3b+DU3b+2OM+2BC+1SU: GFEDv2_8dThursday 1 January 2004 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Thursday 1 January 2004 12UTC Model Level 1 **

0

0.1

0.17

0.25

0.32

0.39

0.46

0.54

0.61

0.68

0.75

0.83

0.9

3

MODIS Jan’2004

Sum 12hr-FCs Jan’2004


Slide 11

8OW 12OW 16OW 20OW 24OW 28OW

50ON 40ON 30ON 20ON 10ON 0O 10OS 20OS 30OS

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100Cloud fraction (blue lines) and Aerosols (grey lines and coulour dots): eybt TL159 L91 20070611_00+03h

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647.1

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Monday 11 June 2007 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Tuesday 12 June 2007 00UTC Model Level 1 * *Experimental product

0

0.1

0.17

0.25

0.32

0.39

0.46

0.54

0.61

0.68

0.75

0.83

0.9

3

ECMWF model FC only at TL159 L91

Modis Aqua

MODIS

Orbit


Slide 12

20OE 18OE 16OE 14OE 12OE 10OE 8OE 6OE 4OE 2OE

20OS 10OS 0O 10ON 20ON 30ON 40ON

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Monday 16 July 2007 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+1 VT: Monday 16 July 2007 01UTC Model Level 1 **Experimental product

0

0.1

0.17

0.25

0.32

0.39

0.46

0.54

0.61

0.68

0.75

0.83

0.9

3


Slide 13


4OW 6OW 8OW 10OW 12OW 14OW 16OW 18OW 20OW

30OS 20OS 10OS 0O 10ON 20ON 30ON

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200


40

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549.3

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Thursday 21 June 2007 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+3 VT: Thursday 21 June 2007 15UTC Model Level 1 **Experimental product

0

0.1

0.17

0.25

0.32

0.39

0.46

0.54

0.61

0.68

0.75

0.83

0.9

3

Modis Aqua

missing


Slide 14


Modis Aqua

12OW 14OW 16OW 18OW 20OW 22OW 24OW

35OS 30OS 25OS 20OS 15OS 10OS 5OS 0O 5ON 10ON 15ON

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Cloud fraction (blue lines) and Aerosols (grey lines and coulour dots): eybt TL159 L91 20070624_12+03h

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454.3

30°S30°S

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20°W

Sunday 24 June 2007 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+3 VT: Sunday 24 June 2007 15UTC Model Level 1 **Experimental product

0

0.1

0.17

0.25

0.32

0.39

0.46

0.54

0.61

0.68

0.75

0.83

0.9

3


Slide 15


Modis Aqua

38OW 40OW 42OW 44OW 46OW 48OW 50OW 52OW 54OW

30OS 20OS 10OS 0O 10ON 20ON 30ON 40ON

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900

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200


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427.4

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0°0°

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40°W

Sunday 24 June 2007 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+6 VT: Sunday 24 June 2007 18UTC Model Level 1 **Experimental product

0

0.1

0.17

0.25

0.32

0.39

0.46

0.54

0.61

0.68

0.75

0.83

0.9

3


Slide 16

July 2007

AERONETModel


Slide 17


Slide 18

Comparison Analysis / Forecast

Comparison A/F for DU aerosol type only

Comparison A/F for each MODIS SW wavelength and all tropospheric aerosols


Slide 1980°S80°S

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Tuesday 1 July 2003 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Tuesday 1 July 2003 12UTC Model Level 8 **Experimental product

0

0.02

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

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30°N 30°N

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80°N80°N

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140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

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0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

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Tuesday 1 July 2003 06UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Tuesday 1 July 2003 18UTC Model Level 8 **Experimental product

0

0.02

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Forecast DU Analysis DU

Comparison of monthly averaged optical depth of dust for July 2003:for a forecast only (left) and for the analysis system (right)

Comparison Analysis / Forecast


Slide 20

LOA-AEROCOM_B2000

LSCE-AEROCOM_B2000

GOCART-AEROCOM_B2000

ECMWF-GEMS_AER2003

Watch the scales!


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Slide 1 Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb08 Dust Modelling Workshop, Reading U., 26 February 2008 Modelling dust aerosols for the ECMWF IFS J.-J. Morcrette,

Documents

feb08 slide

feb08 dust modelling

modelling dust aerosols

su slide

hr slide

dep slide

aeronet model slide

feb08 dust production