N orthw est Pow er and C onservation C ouncil N orthw est Pow er and C onservation C ouncil Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Interim Wholesale Electricity Price and Carbon Dioxide Production Forecasts Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR July 17, 2008
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Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Interim Wholesale Electricity Price and Carbon Dioxide Production Forecasts Maury Galbraith Northwest.
3April 29, AURORA xmp Electric Market Model Modes and Logic 1.Capacity Expansion Mode: Selects optimal mix of resource additions for meeting future demand Planning Period: 2007 – 2031 Simulation: Every 3 rd Hour; M, W, F, Sun; Every 2 nd Week 2.Hourly Dispatch Mode: Determines hourly market-clearing wholesale power prices Planning Period: 2007 – 2026 Simulation: Every Hour; Every Day; Every Week
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NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan
Interim Wholesale Electricity Price and Carbon Dioxide Production
ForecastsMaury Galbraith
Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilPortland, ORJuly 17, 2008
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council2April 29, 2008 2
AURORAxmp Electric Market Model Configuration and Inputs1. 18 load-resource zones with transmission 2. Demand forecasts (net conservation)3. Existing generating resources4. New generating resource options5. Natural gas and coal price forecasts6. CO2 emission price forecasts7. State restrictions on new coal-fired generation8. Resource additions needed to achieve state RPS targets9. Capacity planning reserve margin targets
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council3April 29, 2008 3
AURORAxmp Electric Market ModelModes and Logic
1. Capacity Expansion Mode: • Selects optimal mix of resource additions for meeting future
demand• Planning Period: 2007 – 2031• Simulation: Every 3rd Hour; M, W, F, Sun; Every 2nd Week
2. Hourly Dispatch Mode: • Determines hourly market-clearing wholesale power prices• Planning Period: 2007 – 2026• Simulation: Every Hour; Every Day; Every Week
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council4April 29, 2008
Revised Natural Gas PricesPNW West
$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7$8$9
$10
2007 2012 2017 2022
2006
$/M
MB
tu
Interim Forecast --High Case
Interim Forecast --Base Case
5th Power Plan --Medium
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council5April 29, 2008
CO2 Emission Prices
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45
2007 2012 2017 2022
2006
$/to
n of
CO
2
Interim Forecast -High Case
Interim Forecast -Base Case
5th Power Plan -Mean Values
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council6April 29, 2008
RPS ModelingSummary of Standard Assumed allocation of new acquisitions
(Energy basis)AZ IOU sales: Annual increments to 15% by 2025