Sir Nicolas Stern

Come rain, hail or shine:Planning for a

challenging climate future Kevin Love, Deputy Secretary

Sir Nicolas Stern

“Business-as-usual is dead”

“This is an externality like none other”

“Risks, scales and

uncertainties are

enormous”

“…a big probability of a devastating outcome”

This is an economic and social problem – not just an environmental or scientific issue

Vulnerability in Australia

(from IPCC 2007)

Biodiversity

Water security

Coastal communities

Some regional impacts on public land

Adapted from Victorian Climate Change Green Paper 2009.

Some regional impacts in Victoria

Alpine resorts

• Shorter drier winters mean the area cover by

snow for 60 days per year will shrink substantially

by 2050. Implications for winter tourism & already

endangered alpine species

Coasts

• Low lying coastal assets and infrastructure will be

increasing exposed to vulnerable to rising sea levels, storm

surges and flooding

Rivers, streams crown frontages•Overall drying trend combined with increasing demand for water•Lower flows and recharge rates will impact quality of habitat and ecosystem functions

Satellite composite of land surface temperature January 25th to February 1st 2009 compared to average mid-summer temperatures between 2000 and 2008.

(From www.earthoberatory.nasa.gov)

Harbinger of the future?

January 2009 was also the second driest in the 159 year record with only 0.8 millimetres of rain (average is 48 mm)

The impacts: heatwave

• 374 excess deaths over what would be expected (62% increase)

• 25% increase in emergency cases to Ambulance Victoria (spiked to a 46% increase over the three hottest days)

• More 1300 train service cancelled during the week of January 27th

• VECCI estimated the economic cost at more than $100 million (from shut downs, absenteeism, sales and lost stock)

• Average per capita water consumption in Melbourne was 207 litres a person per day.

• Melbourne's water storages plunged by 0.7 per cent in a week, down to 33.1 per cent capacity

• Thousands of households lost food and groceries because of power disruptions.

• More than 1000 grey-headed flying foxes died in Melbourne (on Feb 7th more than 4000 died). This equated to 1/5 of the Victorian permanent colony.

The impacts: Black Saturday Bushfires

• 173 lives lost

• 3400 buildings destroyed or damaged

• 55 businesses destroyed

• 430,000 hectares of land burnt

• 80 communities directly effected

• 11,000 farm animals killed or injured

• 10,280 insurance claims totalling $1.1 billion

How can we anticipate, plan for and adapt to climate change?

• Improved understanding of climate change science and climate variability will help, but recognise that significant uncertainties will remain

• Need robust planning across range of possible futures– Some things sensible to do no matter how bad things are going to get– consideration of adaptive vs transformational action– Plan across a range of time frames

• Adaptive management & policy development that fosters– integration with existing policies and measures– flexibility to manage uncertainty and changing risks– regular review and refinement– search for no regrets, low regret and win-win options– a portfolio of actions to manage risk

• Partnerships, communication & collaboration

Policy tools

Each tool has a place.

They are interdependent.

Future Coasts Program

$13.5m investment to prepare preliminary assessments of the physical vulnerability to climate change

•Information - shaping planning and management responses along the Victorian coastline

•Guidelines - interpretation and application of climate change science, research and information to decision makers

•Key components:– Science and modeling– Coastal policy and planning – Coastal asset database – Coordination & stakeholder

engagement

Example: current & potential inundation in Chelsea with sea level rise

Our Water Our Future

Multi-prong approach:

• Increasing supply – increasing recycling, desalination

•Delivering water to where it is needed – expanding the grid

•Water conservation – Target 155, Irrigation renewal

“Securing our Natural Future”

• Building ecosystem resilience • Targeted investment in high value asset areas• Creating a network of biolinks

Planning for heat waves

• To assist local councils in addressing the risks associated with

heatwaves at a community level

• A resource for– local councils, but will help other organisations, such as:– hospitals– schools– employers– Primary Care Partnerships– community and health services– Divisions of General Practice– police, ambulance and other emergency services– other non-government and government agencies

• Establishment of a heat alert system

Responding to Bushfire

• 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission – final report expected

July 2010

• Interim recommendations supported

• Living with Fire – Victoria’s Bushfire Strategy (June 2008)

The window is closing

The scale and interconnectedness of impacts may be

such that the window of opportunity for adaptation is

smaller than previously thought

We need to consider:

– What is our ability to adapt?

– What is our willingness to adapt?

– What is the likelihood of sustainable adaptation?

– What is the role of government?

“Warming greater than 2°C would be very difficult for contemporary societies and ecosystems to cope with”

The International Scientific Conference on Climate Change, Copenhagen 2009

Thank you!

www.dse.vic.gov.au

www.climatechange.vic.gov.au