Singularity

SingularityWhat is it? Will a positive Singularity lead to a utopia?

What Is It? How can it occur?

The notion of some radical technological shift beyond which the world is unimaginable

Visions of the future Just the continuation of more and better gadgets and

faster computers Accelerating Returns

The rate of change, of innovation, is accelerating, even the rate of its acceleration is accelerating.

Event Horizon Intelligence Explosion

The advent of greater than human intelligence

Apacalyptism Geek religion?

Models of Singularity

Advent of greater than human intelligence AGI Brain emulation Augmenting human intelligence

Accelerating change Which also makes brain emulation and workable

AI nearly inevitable But some say just the change itself will grow

beyond our ability to understand or predict

Accelerating Returns

Examination of multiple events and capabilities shows exponential increase

All are driven by (and contribute to) intelligence Rate of inventions, innovation Adoption rates of innovation Increase in computational ability Increase in communication ability and use Time between paradigm shifts Computational power per unit cost

Accelerating Returns Core Claim

Technological change feeds on itself and therefore accelerates. Our past or current rate of change is not a good predictor of the future rate of change.

Strong Claim Technological change follows smooth curves,

typically exponential. Therefore we can predict with some precision when various changes will arrive and cross key thresholds, like the creation of AI.

Advocates Ray Kurzweil, Alvin Toffler, John Smart

Paradigm Shift Time

DNA Sequencing Costs

Mass Use of Inventions

Moore’s Law

Data Mass Storage

ISP Cost-Performance

Random Access Memory

Exponential Growth - Computing

Computational Increase Predictions

Human brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1000 around 2023

Human brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for one cent around 2037

Human race capability (2 * 10^28 cps) for $1000 around 2049

Human race capability (2 * 10^28 cps) for one cent around 2059

Computational Acceleration

Blue Gene will have 5% of the computational power needed to match a human brain

In the next five years or so supercomputers will match the computing capacity of the human brain

By about 2030 such a machine will cost around $1.

What happens when you put 1000 of them to work 24x7 on say the AGI problem or MNT or ending aging?

Limits of Human Intelligence20 – 500Hz. Neuron firing rate

Lately there is evidence than the pattern of firings is the important information unit

Very few aspects of a problem may be held in conscious awareness at one time

Very slow learning rates Faulty memory Limited communication ability with other minds Squishy deteriorating mind implementation Poor scalability Poor transfer of knowledge Very slow replication

Past Intelligence Augmentation Communication. Starting with speech

Writing – an early augmentation of human intelligence Stable cultures respectful of knowledge and encouraging

to innovation Dissemination of learning Science and Mathematics

Reality respecting culture Computation

Gathering and doing more with information ever faster Device Convergence

Future Intelligence Augmentation

Ubiquitous computing Exo-cortex Wearable or embedded computing / communication

Brain – computer interface

Upgrading the brain with technology Bio-chemical upgrading

Upload

Event Horizon Core claim

Soon we will not be the greatest intelligence on the planet

Then the changes in our world will no longer be in our control or understadable and predictable by us

Strong claim To understand what a superintelligence would do you

would have to be that intelligent. Thus the future after that is totally unpredictable.

Advocates Vernon Vinge

Greater Than Human Intelligence

"Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an 'intelligence explosion,' and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.”

- I. J. Good 1965

Intelligence Explosion

Core Claim Creating minds significantly smarter than humans

closes the loop creating a positive feeback cycle.

Strong Claim The positive feedback cycle goes FOOM, each

improvement triggering the next. Superintelligence up to the limits of the laws of physics develops rapidly.

Advocates: I.J. Good, Eliezer Yudkowsky

What does Singularity Mean for Us?

Short Range Employment / Work Cures for all disease including aging Near limitless abundance Economics Political

Backlash Sociological

Impact of Human Equivalent Machine Intelligence

Assume Human intelligence without biological limitations and

distractions Can focus and work 24 x 7 Ultimately very cheap to own and easy to replicate any unit’s

knowledge

Results Almost all human labor, especially intellectual becomes

economically superfluous Progress increases substantially when entire armies can be

deployed on projects

So.. economics must change a great deal for all humans to

continue to partake in results Our view of ourselves must change Maybe we join the AIs and become uploads

> Human Intelligence Impact

Much that goes on is totally opaque to even augmented humans

Humans even transhumans are not in charge, are second class citizens

Are they respected? Kept around? Our history with other species is not encouraging Are humans irrelevant to AGIs? Is there an objective ethical argument for

treating lesser intelligences well? Is going extinct to usher in a greater intelligence

“OK”?

What does Singularity Mean for us

Long term Do we survive?

If we do not are we happy to have produced wonderful “mind children” as Moravec suggests?

Are we recognizable as human? Does it matter?

What of those who do not wish to change? Unlimited future.. Unchecked or unwise recursively improving AI

goos the universe

What Could Stop Singularity?

Turns out to be unnoticeable and no big deal Harsh Condition Slow, Halt, Reverse Progress Unexpected limits and difficulties

Harsh Things Happen

Economic Disaster Some believe this will take a decade or two to

clean up

Energy Disaster Easily a decade to largely replace oil

Existential Risk Major War

What would Utopia take?

We become super bright, compassionate and enlightened

AGI is Friendly and bring us the best we can possibly have as quickly as it deems best for us to have it

AGI ends up Friendly because

Its own decision based on: We are it progenitors It finds us curious or amusing Its ethics lead it to treat lesser intelligences well

Some really bright human hackers gave it unbreakable limts or top level utility function

Is the best we can get utopia?

What is utopia? End of all suffering?

Does this mean end of wanting what you don’t and perhaps can’t yet have?

Does it mean the end of negative feedback or consequences no matter what you do?

Do you instantly become enlightened? End of material lack

Beyond lack to people stop wanting? Is utopia nothing left to do? Can humans be happy as second class or so

totally outclassed as to be beyond comprehension?