Singapore: Income-based Gross Domestic Product International Workshop on Household Income, Consumption and Full Accounting of the Households Sector Beijing, China 26-28 March 2012
Dec 30, 2015
Singapore:Income-based Gross Domestic Product
International Workshop on Household Income, Consumption and Full Accounting of the Households Sector
Beijing, China26-28 March 2012
Overview
Conceptual Framework
GDI Compilation Methodology
-Data Collection & Compilation Strategy
-Sources & Methods
Reconciliation Processes
GDI Revision Policy
Agenda
Three Approaches to GDPo The Singapore Department of Statistics (DOS) compiles and
disseminates GDP estimates using all three approaches to GDP
Income-based GDPo Since 1998, DOS has compiled and published the income-based
GDP, GDP(I) on an annual basis, from reference year 1980 onwards
o GDP(P) as headline GDP - statistical discrepancy recorded on GDP(I)
Overview
OverviewApproach Frequency Start Period Timeliness Availability of
Constant-price series
GDP Quarterly Quarterly - Q1 1975Annual - 1960
(Advance)-Not later than 2 weeks after end of reference quarter
(Preliminary)-Not later than 8 weeks after end of reference quarter
Yes
GDE Quarterly Quarterly - Q1 1975Annual - 1960
Not later than 8 weeks after end of reference quarter
Yes
GDI Annual Annual - 1980 Not later than 8 weeks after end of reference year
No
System of National Accounts (SNA), 1993/2008o Consistent with SNA
Recent Conceptual Change/Methodological Improvementso Capitalisation of software expenditure
o Treatment of employee stock options as compensation of employees
o Allocation and estimation of financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM)
Conceptual Framework
GDI Compilation FrameworkData Collection & Compilation Strategy
Business Register
AdministrativeRecords
Statistical Surveys
Up-to-datesurvey frame
Administrative Data
Data Management Policy
-Comprehensive data-Consistent with national accounts concepts-Less timely-Respondent burden-Detailed analysis constrained by sample size
-Comprehensive & detailed data -Less consistent with national accounts concepts-Generally more timely than surveys-Reduced cost to business-Good source of detailed analysis
GDP(I)
Adjustments &
Reconciliation
Business survey questionnaires consistent with national accounts concepts
Survey items on CoE include:(1) Wages & salaries (including bonus & allowances)(2) Employer's social contributions (i.e. Central Provident Fund)(3) Staff benefits (e.g. welfare, medical & housing benefits)(4) Expenses on share-based payment to employees (e.g. stock options)
CoE is largely compiled on the basis of annual business survey results, and cross-validated against administrative data for consistency & reliability
In the absence of benchmarked annual survey data, latest year’s estimates are extrapolated on the basis of quarterly/monthly administrative & survey data
GDI Compilation FrameworkSources & Methods: Compensation of Employees (CoE)
GDI Compilation FrameworkSources & Methods: Compensation of Employees (CoE)
Type of Data Timeliness Source Coverage Frequency
Survey Data Quarterly Data:About 2 months after end of reference quarter
Annual Data:About 1-1.5 years after end of reference year
Business surveys (e.g. Census of Manufacturing Activities, surveys of services)
Major industries (e.g. manufacturing, financial & insurance)
Quarterly
Annual
Administrative Data
Quarterly Data:About 1 monthafter end of reference quarter
Annual Data:About 1 yearafter end of reference year
E.g. Government finance statistics
Government ministries & departments
Monthly
E.g. Central Provident Fund (CPF) & work passes records
All industries Quarterly
E.g. Inland Revenue Authority
All industries Annual
Similar to CoE, GOS is compiled largely on the basis of business survey results, and cross-validated against administrative data
GOS is derived as a residual item:GOS = Value added (basic price)
- Compensation of employees- Other taxes less subsidies on production
In the absence of benchmarked annual survey data, latest year’s estimates are extrapolated on the basis of quarterly survey data.
GDI Compilation FrameworkSources & Methods: Gross Operating Surplus (GOS)
GDI Compilation FrameworkSources & Methods: Gross Operating Surplus (GOS)
Type of Data Timeliness Source Coverage Frequency
Survey Data Quarterly Data:About 2 months after end of reference quarter
Annual Data:About 1-1.5 years after end of reference year
Business surveys (e.g. Census of Manufacturing Activities, surveys of services)
Major industries (e.g. manufacturing, financial & insurance)
Annual
Quarterly
Administrative Data
Annual Data:About 1 yearafter end of reference year
E.g. Inland Revenue Authority
All industries Annual
Taxes less subsidies on production and on imports are compiled largely on the basis of monthly/quarterly administrative data, e.g. government finance statistics (GFS).
GDI Compilation FrameworkSources & Methods: Taxes less Subsidies on
Production and on Imports
Reconciliation Processes
Data reconciliation among three approaches to GDP (i.e. no statistical discrepancy is recorded) on the basis of updated input-output tables once every 5 years
Non-Benchmarked years
GDP(P)
GDP(E) GDP(I)
Statistical Discrepancy ≠ 0 Statistical Discrepancy ≠ 0
Statistical Discrepancy ≠ 0
DataConfrontatio
n
DataReconciliation
(IO tables)
GDP(P)
GDP(E) GDP(I)
Statistical Discrepancy = 0
Statistical Discrepancy = 0
Statistical Discrepancy = 0
Benchmarked year
Data confrontation among three approaches to GDP to narrow statistical discrepancy on an annual basis
GDI Revision Policy
Routine Revision Benchmarked RevisionFrequency of Release Every year Every 5 years
Purpose of Data Revision -Incorporate latest business survey results
-Incorporate updated business survey results for earlier years
-Incorporate benchmark data from updated IO tables
-Incorporate major methodological, conceptual, classification and data source improvements
Extent of Data Revisions Mainly for the most recent years Entire time series
Update of Reference Year No Yes