Simulations of Land Use Changes Simulations of Land Use Changes - - AGENT AGENT - - LUC Model LUC Model K S Rajan International Institute of Information Technology, Hyderabad International Institute of Information Technology, Hyderabad [email protected][email protected]March 29 March 29 th th , 2007 , 2007 International Workshop on URBANIZATION, DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS AND CARBON IMPLICATIONS 28-30 March 2007, Tsukuba, Japan
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Simulations of Land Use ChangesSimulations of Land Use Changes
-- AGENTAGENT--LUC Model LUC Model
K S RajanInternational Institute of Information Technology, HyderabadInternational Institute of Information Technology, Hyderabad
-- Flood Impacts and SocioFlood Impacts and Socio--
Economic ConsequencesEconomic Consequences
Urbanization Model Urbanization Model
Simulations of Urban Land use & PopulationSimulations of Urban Land use & Population
19901990--21002100•• ObjectivesObjectives
–– To Develop Tools that forecast the To Develop Tools that forecast the Spatial extentSpatial extent of the of the Urban AreasUrban Areas
–– Incorporating the Economic growth, Migration and sprawl Incorporating the Economic growth, Migration and sprawl effecteffect
•• Simulation Tools Help understand the Impact Simulation Tools Help understand the Impact –– Shift of Population and Changing Dimensions of Shift of Population and Changing Dimensions of
•• NEEDNEED
–– Water and other resourcesWater and other resources
–– Economic sphere of influenceEconomic sphere of influence
•• DISASTERS/VulnerabilityDISASTERS/Vulnerability
–– Increased Populations at RiskIncreased Populations at Risk
•• Approach Approach –– Urban Agglomeration BasedUrban Agglomeration Based
3232
4848
3434
9999
60**60**
3737
7979
3737
5454
5353
4747
100100
4242
4141
BangladeshBangladesh
ChinaChina
FijiFiji
Hong KongHong Kong
India**India**
IndonesiaIndonesia
Korea, RepublicKorea, Republic
MalaysiaMalaysia
MyanmarMyanmar
PhilippinesPhilippines
PakistanPakistan
SingaporeSingapore
Sri LankaSri Lanka
ThailandThailand
Estimated Urban GDPEstimated Urban GDP
(%)(%)Country/TerritoryCountry/Territory
An Estimate of GDP of Urban Areas as An Estimate of GDP of Urban Areas as
Percentage of National GDPPercentage of National GDP
Source: "State of the Environment in Asia and the Pacific - 1990" Bangkok: The UN Economic and
Social Commission for the Asia Pacific. **FICCI estimates of 2005
Spatial Urbanization ModelSpatial Urbanization Model
Industrial /Service Sector
GDP per capita
Urban GDP Share
Land Needs
Expansion of Urban Area
Current Urban Area
Transport
Infrastructure
Land Use Conversion
Potential
Rural to Urban
Migration
Population Growth
and Readjustments
Pull factorsTopography
Relationships in the ModelRelationships in the Model
In-Migration to the Cities
Mt = β – ( γ . ln GDP pc,t )
where, β= 5.0846479; γ=0.4905977,
and GDPpc,t is the Per-capita GDP at time t
Population Growth
Pt = Po e(µ/ω).e(ωt - 1)
where, µ is the national population growth rate at initial time reference
t0 and ω is the exponential decreasing rate of national population growth
InIn--Migration FormulationMigration Formulation
•• Based on data of Japan since 1955Based on data of Japan since 1955
•• Considers Tokyo and the surrounding ProvincesConsiders Tokyo and the surrounding Provinces
•• Separates Natural Growth Rate with the Total Separates Natural Growth Rate with the Total Population changesPopulation changes
•• InIn--Migration is a proxy for all the regional and Migration is a proxy for all the regional and national population movementsnational population movements
•• Assumes that the Other Countries in Asia have Assumes that the Other Countries in Asia have similar Urbanization Patterns similar Urbanization Patterns –– Developmental Developmental PathwaysPathways
Land use Map of Bangkok and Land use Map of Bangkok and
Surrounding ProvincesSurrounding Provinces
Simulated Urban AreaSimulated Urban Area
Simulated Urban Area Simulated Urban Area
PPoopulation Changes 1980, 1990pulation Changes 1980, 1990--21002100Population in Bangkok and Surrounding Population in Bangkok and Surrounding
Provinces and its Ratio to ThailandProvinces and its Ratio to Thailand’’s total s total
PopulationPopulation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1980 1990 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Year
Population (in M
illions)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Percentages
Sim Total Popln (BKK+5 provinces) Ratio of (BKK+5 provinces) to Thailand
Urban PUrban Poopulation Changespulation Changes
1980, 19901980, 1990--21002100Share of Urban Population in Bangkok Share of Urban Population in Bangkok vsvs Total Total
Population in the RegionPopulation in the Region
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1980 1990 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Year
Population (in M
illion)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Percentages
Sim Total Popln (BKK+5 provinces) Only Urban Popln % Urban Popln
-- Flood Impacts and SocioFlood Impacts and Socio--
Economic ConsequencesEconomic Consequences
Where are We ?Where are We ?•• Most of the Major Cities are in the CoastsMost of the Major Cities are in the Coasts
•• Floods cause Human and Economic LossesFloods cause Human and Economic Losses
–– 5 fold in 30 years in Asia5 fold in 30 years in Asia
•• High rate of High rate of UUrbanization and population growth rbanization and population growth in coastal areas are likely to aggravate the situationin coastal areas are likely to aggravate the situation
What do we plan in this Research?What do we plan in this Research?•• Impact of floods in the Coastal CitiesImpact of floods in the Coastal Cities
•• Estimate Vulnerable Population and Risk COSTSEstimate Vulnerable Population and Risk COSTS
–– Spatial DistributionSpatial Distribution needed for Developing Responsesneeded for Developing Responses
Study Area : Hue City, VietnamStudy Area : Hue City, Vietnam
Characteristics of Hue CityCharacteristics of Hue City
•• Hue City of Hue City of ThuaThua ThienThien Hue province is Hue province is
located in the central part of Vietnam.located in the central part of Vietnam.
•• Old Capital of Vietnam Old Capital of Vietnam –– Now a Tourist Now a Tourist
AttractionAttraction
•• Total area of the province is 5,009 kmTotal area of the province is 5,009 km2.2.
•• Total population is 1,050,000 in 1999.Total population is 1,050,000 in 1999.
•• 70% of the total natural land is mountainous.70% of the total natural land is mountainous.
•• Flood and storms are the main disastersFlood and storms are the main disasters
–– Almost AnnuallyAlmost Annually
Topography around Hue CityTopography around Hue City
Hue
LanduseLanduse Map of the Study AreaMap of the Study Area
Flood Depth Map Flood Depth Map –– Base SimulationBase Simulation
Figure: Flood Depth Map at Peak Discharge in Kim Long (03.11.1999) for Base Condition
•• Green Building Policy and Urbanization Green Building Policy and Urbanization ––Mainly Energy use scenariosMainly Energy use scenarios
•• ChallengesChallenges
–– Moving from a Single City to Multiple City Moving from a Single City to Multiple City Urbanization Urbanization –– interactions within the countryinteractions within the country
•• CautionCaution
–– National Projections are being used as Parameters National Projections are being used as Parameters