Simulating Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Boreal Bird Habitats Under Natural and Anthropogenic Disturbances in a Climate-Change Context Junior A. Tremblay, Yan Boulanger, Dominic Cyr, David Price, Diana Stralberg, Anthony Taylor, Adaptation Canada 2016 April 13 th 2016 Photo: Jérôme Rioux
25
Embed
Simulating Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Boreal Bird ... Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Boreal Bird Habitats Under Natural and Anthropogenic Disturbances in a ... Adaptation Canada 2016
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Simulating Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of
Boreal Bird Habitats Under Natural and
Anthropogenic Disturbances in a
Climate-Change Context
Junior A. Tremblay, Yan Boulanger, Dominic Cyr, David Price,
Diana Stralberg, Anthony Taylor,
Adaptation Canada 2016
April 13th 2016
Photo: Jérôme Rioux
Page 2 – 18 avril 2016
15
10
7
5
4
3
2
1.5
1
0.5
-0.5
Overview
• Introduction
• Study objectives
• Methods
• Case study 1
• Case study 2
• Conclusion
RCP 2.6 En
viro
nm
ent C
an
ad
a 2
015
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
C. Buidin
M. M. Taylor
Page 3 – 18 avril 2016
Introduction Climate change and birds
Langham et al. 2015
Page 4 – 18 avril 2016
Introduction Climate-induced changes in forest landscapes • Changes in growth rates, mortality, regeneration
• Changes in disturbance regime (e.g. fire, pest outbreaks)
Annual area burned
2071 – 2100
Boulanger et al. 2014
NPP ratio black spruce
2071 – 2100 vs 1971 -2004
Girardin et al. 2015
Boulanger et al. 2016
Predicted
outbreak duration
2071 – 2100
Page 5 – 18 avril 2016
• Example: boreal tree species are at risk
Introduction Climate-induced changes in forest landscapes
Species biomass (t.ha-2)
Boreal shield east
Boulanger et al. in rev.
Page 6 – 18 avril 2016
Introduction Climate change effects on boreal birds
• Most of studies projecting future bird habitats rely on
climate projections. This approach does not take into
account the projected realized migration of the habitat