Simulating and Forecasting Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future Regional Climates of the Future William J. Gutowski, Jr. William J. Gutowski, Jr. Dept. Geological & Atmospheric Sciences Dept. Geological & Atmospheric Sciences Dept. of Agronomy Dept. of Agronomy Iowa State University Iowa State University Major contributions from Major contributions from : : Z. Pan, R. W. Arritt, C. Anderson, F. Otieno, E. S. Takle Z. Pan, R. W. Arritt, C. Anderson, F. Otieno, E. S. Takle Iowa State University Iowa State University J. H. Christensen, O. B. Christensen J. H. Christensen, O. B. Christensen Danish Meteorological Institute Danish Meteorological Institute Copenhagen, Denmark Copenhagen, Denmark ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)
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Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future
Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future. William J. Gutowski, Jr. Dept. Geological & Atmospheric Sciences Dept. of Agronomy Iowa State University. Major contributions from : Z. Pan, R. W. Arritt, C. Anderson, F. Otieno, E. S. Takle Iowa State University - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Simulating and Forecasting Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the FutureRegional Climates of the Future
William J. Gutowski, Jr.William J. Gutowski, Jr.Dept. Geological & Atmospheric SciencesDept. Geological & Atmospheric Sciences
Dept. of AgronomyDept. of AgronomyIowa State UniversityIowa State University
Major contributions fromMajor contributions from::Z. Pan, R. W. Arritt, C. Anderson, F. Otieno, E. S. TakleZ. Pan, R. W. Arritt, C. Anderson, F. Otieno, E. S. Takle
Iowa State UniversityIowa State University
J. H. Christensen, O. B. ChristensenJ. H. Christensen, O. B. ChristensenDanish Meteorological Institute Danish Meteorological Institute
• A Norm to Evaluate Projected ChangeA Norm to Evaluate Projected Change
• Conclusions
OutlineOutline
ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)
Simulate decades/centuries into futureSimulate decades/centuries into future
How are projections verified?How are projections verified?
Projections of Future Climate
Simulate decades/centuries into futureSimulate decades/centuries into future
How are projections verified?How are projections verified?• Accuracy of present climate simulation?Accuracy of present climate simulation?
Projections of Future Climate
Simulate decades/centuries into futureSimulate decades/centuries into future
How are projections verified?How are projections verified?• Accuracy of present climate simulation?Accuracy of present climate simulation?• Accuracy of paleoclimate simulation?Accuracy of paleoclimate simulation?
Projections of Future Climate
Simulate decades/centuries into futureSimulate decades/centuries into future
How are projections verified?How are projections verified?• Accuracy of present climate simulation?Accuracy of present climate simulation?• Accuracy of paleoclimate simulation?Accuracy of paleoclimate simulation?• Alternative …Alternative …
Projections of Future Climate
Simulate decades/centuries into futureSimulate decades/centuries into future
How are projections verified?How are projections verified?• Accuracy of present climate simulation?Accuracy of present climate simulation?• Accuracy of paleoclimate simulation?Accuracy of paleoclimate simulation?• Alternative … Alternative …
• A Norm to Evaluate Projected ChangeA Norm to Evaluate Projected Change
• Conclusions
OutlineOutline
ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)
ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)
FIELD POSSIBLECHANGE
CONFIDENCE **
Precipitation + 3-5 mm/d(North)
+ 0-1 mm/d(South)
good
fair
Tmin, Tmax + 2 – 3 oC fair
Snow - 0-50% poor
** = Subject to quality of driving GCM!
ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)
• Ratio of climate change to biases is especially Ratio of climate change to biases is especially large in the California regionlarge in the California region
• Differences between RCM and GCM imply Differences between RCM and GCM imply room for RCMs to add value to GCM room for RCMs to add value to GCM simulationssimulations
• Regional warming signal is less robust than Regional warming signal is less robust than precipitation changeprecipitation change
• Future warming projection has large inter-Future warming projection has large inter-model differencesmodel differences
Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Primary Funding: Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
Additional Support: U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric