Simon Power Managing Consultant John Rae Director Understanding Communities Through PayCheck .

Simon PowerManaging Consultant

John RaeDirector

Understanding Communities Through PayCheck

www.caci.co.uk

What we are going to talk about today?

Using geodemographic & other non-official data sources to define, describe and meet the needs of distinct communities

Demographics Affluence Income Lifestyles Attitudes Motivations

The leading independent Market Analysis company in the UK

Within the public sector work with over 70% of Local Authorities and many government departments

Capabilities include:Consumer classification systems, e.g. ACORNLargest location planning consultancy in UKConsumer lists for direct marketingCRM analysisMarket planning software tools

Who are CACI?

Our Clients

Key datasets

PayCheckACORNHealthACORNCitizen InsightsStreetValueCommunity InsightsExpenditure dataPeople*UKLifestylesUKRetail FootprintInSite

PayCheck – Income Dataset

www.caci.co.uk

PayCheck

What is PayCheck?PayCheck is a model that provides estimates of the distribution of gross household incomes, from all sources, right down to full postcode level.

Where did that data come from ?

                                    Probability estimates of an individual’s financial status

Segmentation of individuals’financial activity

Paycheck approach

Identify the distribution of household incomes at various levels of geographic detailAssume this distribution maintains a constant form, where variation within the form is determined by the local mean and deviation Build models to predict the mean and deviation of this for any local area, the thus the distribution of incomes

PayCheck approach8 million Lifestyles records

Reweighted to match GB Postcode Areas ACORN Types

Modeled using: Selected census

variables ACORN Other lifestyles

variables

Constrained from EFS

Weighted average

Lifestyle data records

Reweighted

Model mean & sd

Measured incomemean & sd

Apply to distribution for local area

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

£0-5

k

£5-1

0k

£10-1

5k

£15-2

0k

£20-2

5k

£25-3

0k

£30-3

5k

£35-4

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£40-4

5k

£45-5

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£50-5

5k

£55-6

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£60-6

5k

£65-7

0k

£70-7

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£75-8

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£80-8

5k

£85-9

0k

£90-9

5k

£95-1

00k

£100k+

Income distribution for two postcodes

PayCheck

Methodology – Data SourcesLifestyle Data

The most recent 3 years lifestyle data from Data Locator Group (DLG). The complete set is 8.1m records.

Expenditure and Food Survey (EFS)Four years of EFS data is used to establish a reference control distribution. Annual sample size is 6,500.

UK Average Earnings ChangeTime series data on earnings from the ONS is used to ‘inflate’ both survey and lifestyle data from earlier years.

2001 CensusStatistics from the census used to provide explanatory variables for the modelling.

PayCheck – Sample SizesLocal Authority DLG RespondentsAberdeen City 27,681Aberdeenshire 29,362Angus 15,900Argyll and Bute 10,654Scottish Borders 14,632Clackmannanshire 7,364West Dumbartonshire 11,852Dumfries and Galloway 21,187Dundee City 17,303East Ayrshire 17,650East Dumbartonshire 13,244East Lothian 12,206East Renfrewshire 10,333City of Edinburgh 43,521Falkirk 22,291Fife 49,607City of Glasgow 44,677Highland 27,917Inverclyde 9,275Midlothian 11,413Moray 12,458North Ayrshire 19,385North Lanarkshire 43,841Orkney Islands 2,447Perth and Kinross 17,183Renfrewshire 21,500Shetland Islands 2,138South Ayrshire 15,882South Lanarkshire 41,091Stirling 10,731West Lothian 23,174Western Isles 2,504

Strengths & Weaknesses Sample Comprehensive geographical detail Regularly updated Also an equivalised version Available for academic use in Data Archive

Sample Trade off between local precision and possibility of time

series analysis Assumption distribution is constant across geography Micro-geographic variation in ‘accuracy’

PayCheck

Frequently Asked Questions 1Where do all the millionaires live?How much does Ewan McGregor earn?Why does x not appear in the top 10 postcode sectors?Why are the same areas often at the bottom of the rankings?Why don’t you get whole households in the bands?

PayCheck

Also available from CACIEquivalised PayCheck

The income that a household needs to attain a given standard of living will depend on its size and composition. For example, a couple with dependent children will need a higher income than a single person with no children to attain the same material living standards. "Equivalisation" means adjusting a household's income for size and composition so that we can look at the incomes of all households on a comparable basis.

PayCheck

Equivalised PayCheckCalculated using the McClements Scale.

McClements Equivalence Scale (Before Housing Costs)

Position of household member Equivalence value Cohabiting head of household 0.61 Partner/Spouse 0.39 1st additional adult 0.42 Subsequent adults 0.36 Single head of household 0.61 1st additional adult 0.46 2nd additional adult 0.42 Subsequent adults 0.36 Child aged: 16-18 0.36 13-15 0.27 11-12 0.25 8-10 0.23 5-7 0.21 2-4 0.18 Under 2 0.09

PayCheck

Equivalised PayCheckExample

Household 1 - Married couple with 3 dependent children has a joint income of £20,000, their weight (equivalisation score) is 0.61 + 0.39 + 0.18 + 0.23 + 0.25 = 1.66. Their equivalised income would therefore be £20,000/1.66 = £12,048.Household 2 – Single person with an income of £20,000 has an equivalisation score of 0.61. The equivalised income is therefore be £20,000/0.61 = £32,787.

PayCheck - practicalities

What you have…..Postcode Sector

Mean Household IncomeMedianModeHIP (Household Income Profile)

Also available…Intermediate Geography, Data Zone, Output Area and Postcode

PayCheck

What does it look like?Postcode

Large User Flag

Deleted flag Households 0-5K 5-10K 10-15K ……. 90-95K 95-100K 100K+

Mean Income

Median Income

Mode Income

AB12 3NP 0 0 4 0.1 0.2 0.33 ……. 0.02 0.02 0.05 34900 30800 23500AB12 3NQ 0 0 2 0.06 0.12 0.19 ……. 0.01 0.01 0.02 32400 28600 21900AB12 3NR 0 0 4 0.09 0.17 0.29 ……. 0.03 0.02 0.08 37500 33000 25100AB12 3NS 0 0 10 0.17 0.37 0.63 ……. 0.09 0.07 0.27 40200 35300 26900AB12 3NT 0 0 3 0.09 0.18 0.28 ……. 0.01 0.01 0.03 32600 28700 22000AB12 3NU 0 0 34 0.25 0.64 1.25 ……. 0.55 0.45 2.04 49400 43700 33700AB12 3NW 0 0 28 1.34 2.68 3.95 ……. 0.02 0.01 0.02 24500 21900 17400AB12 3NX 0 0 7 0.12 0.25 0.43 ……. 0.07 0.05 0.2 40500 35600 27100AB12 3NY 0 0 10 0.33 0.64 0.99 ……. 0.03 0.02 0.07 31200 27600 21200AB12 3NZ 0 0 26 0.3 0.7 1.27 ……. 0.32 0.26 1.09 44700 39400 30100AB12 3PA 0 0 10 0.46 0.9 1.33 ……. 0.01 0.01 0.01 25400 22800 18000AB12 3PB 0 0 21 0.96 1.89 2.8 ……. 0.02 0.01 0.03 25500 22800 18000AB12 3PD 0 0 2 0.09 0.17 0.25 ……. 0 0 0 26500 23700 18600AB12 3PE 0 0 16 0.67 1.3 1.96 ……. 0.02 0.02 0.04 27100 24100 18900AB12 3PF 0 0 7 0.2 0.4 0.63 ……. 0.03 0.02 0.07 33100 29200 22300

PayCheck

Working with PayCheck dataCalculating the mean income of an area.Calculating the median of an area.What else can you do?…

PayCheck

Calculating the mean income of an area

Postcode Households Mean IncomeAB12 3NP 4 34900AB12 3NQ 2 32400AB12 3NR 4 37500AB12 3NS 10 40200AB12 3NT 3 32600AB12 3NU 34 49400AB12 3NW 28 24500AB12 3NX 7 40500AB12 3NY 10 31200AB12 3NZ 26 44700AB12 3PA 10 25400AB12 3PB 21 25500AB12 3PD 2 26500AB12 3PE 16 27100

PayCheck

How would you do it?

Postcode Households Mean IncomeAB12 3NP 4 34900AB12 3NQ 2 32400AB12 3NR 4 37500AB12 3NS 10 40200AB12 3NT 3 32600AB12 3NU 34 49400AB12 3NW 28 24500AB12 3NX 7 40500AB12 3NY 10 31200AB12 3NZ 26 44700AB12 3PA 10 25400AB12 3PB 21 25500AB12 3PD 2 26500AB12 3PE 16 27100AB12 3PF 7 33100

Total 505500

Add it up and divide by number of postcodes = £33,700

WRONG

PayCheck

How would you do it?

Postcode Households Mean IncomeAB12 3NP 4 34900AB12 3NQ 2 32400AB12 3NR 4 37500AB12 3NS 10 40200AB12 3NT 3 32600AB12 3NU 34 49400AB12 3NW 28 24500AB12 3NX 7 40500AB12 3NY 10 31200AB12 3NZ 26 44700AB12 3PA 10 25400AB12 3PB 21 25500AB12 3PD 2 26500AB12 3PE 16 27100AB12 3PF 7 33100

Total 184 505500

Add it up and divide by number of Households = £2,747

WRONG

PayCheck

How do you do it?

Postcode Households Mean Income Total IncomeAB12 3NP 4 34900 139600AB12 3NQ 2 32400 64800AB12 3NR 4 37500 150000AB12 3NS 10 40200 402000AB12 3NT 3 32600 97800AB12 3NU 34 49400 1679600AB12 3NW 28 24500 686000AB12 3NX 7 40500 283500AB12 3NY 10 31200 312000AB12 3NZ 26 44700 1162200AB12 3PA 10 25400 254000AB12 3PB 21 25500 535500AB12 3PD 2 26500 53000AB12 3PE 16 27100 433600AB12 3PF 7 33100 231700

Total 184 6485300

Calculate the total income for each postcode.

Divide by number of households in the area.

Sum up the “Totals” for the area.£35,246

PayCheck

Calculating the median of an areaPostcode Households 0-5K 5-10K 10-15K 15-20K ……. 75-80K 80-85K 85-90K 90-95K 95-100K 100K+EH12 8SL 6 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.23 ……. 0.22 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.58EH12 8SN 1 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 ……. 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.10EH12 8SP 12 0.10 0.25 0.48 0.71 ……. 0.33 0.27 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.66EH12 8SQ 6 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.24 ……. 0.21 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.56EH12 8SR 2 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.11 ……. 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.12EH12 8SS 3 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.12 ……. 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.27EH12 8ST 10 0.04 0.11 0.25 0.41 ……. 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.91EH12 8SU 9 0.46 0.93 1.36 1.48 ……. 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00EH12 8SW 36 0.26 0.67 1.31 2.00 ……. 1.04 0.86 0.71 0.59 0.48 2.18EH12 8SX 4 0.09 0.17 0.29 0.38 ……. 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.08EH12 8SY 21 1.06 2.15 3.15 3.43 ……. 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01EH12 8SZ 11 0.51 1.01 1.50 1.68 ……. 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01EH12 8TA 7 0.15 0.31 0.51 0.66 ……. 0.11 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.14EH12 8TB 12 0.05 0.15 0.33 0.53 ……. 0.41 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.20 1.00EH12 8TD 13 0.28 0.57 0.94 1.22 ……. 0.20 0.16 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.25

Total 153 3.07 6.53 10.58 13.24 ……. 3.23 2.65 2.19 1.78 1.48 6.87

Create a distribution for the area: Add up all the columns!!

PayCheck

Calculating the median of an areaPostcode Households 0-5K 5-10K 10-15K 15-20K ……. 75-80K 80-85K 85-90K 90-95K 95-100K 100K+EH12 8SL 6 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.23 ……. 0.22 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.58EH12 8SN 1 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 ……. 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.10EH12 8SP 12 0.10 0.25 0.48 0.71 ……. 0.33 0.27 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.66EH12 8SQ 6 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.24 ……. 0.21 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.56EH12 8SR 2 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.11 ……. 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.12EH12 8SS 3 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.12 ……. 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.27EH12 8ST 10 0.04 0.11 0.25 0.41 ……. 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.91EH12 8SU 9 0.46 0.93 1.36 1.48 ……. 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00EH12 8SW 36 0.26 0.67 1.31 2.00 ……. 1.04 0.86 0.71 0.59 0.48 2.18EH12 8SX 4 0.09 0.17 0.29 0.38 ……. 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.08EH12 8SY 21 1.06 2.15 3.15 3.43 ……. 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01EH12 8SZ 11 0.51 1.01 1.50 1.68 ……. 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01EH12 8TA 7 0.15 0.31 0.51 0.66 ……. 0.11 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.14EH12 8TB 12 0.05 0.15 0.33 0.53 ……. 0.41 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.20 1.00EH12 8TD 13 0.28 0.57 0.94 1.22 ……. 0.20 0.16 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.25

Total 153 3.07 6.53 10.58 13.24 ……. 3.23 2.65 2.19 1.78 1.48 6.87

Calculate 50% of the households = 153 2 = 76½

PayCheck

Calculating the median of an areaPostcode Households 0-5K 5-10K 10-15K 15-20K 20-25K 25-30K 30-35K 35-40KEH12 8SL 6 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.23 0.32 0.39 0.44 0.46EH12 8SN 1 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.08EH12 8SP 12 0.10 0.25 0.48 0.71 0.9 1.01 1.05 1.02EH12 8SQ 6 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.33 0.40 0.45 0.46EH12 8SR 2 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.11 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.17EH12 8SS 3 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.17 0.20 0.22 0.23EH12 8ST 10 0.04 0.11 0.25 0.41 0.56 0.68 0.75 0.78EH12 8SU 9 0.46 0.93 1.36 1.48 1.33 1.07 0.79 0.55EH12 8SW 36 0.26 0.67 1.31 2.00 2.56 2.92 3.06 3.03EH12 8SX 4 0.09 0.17 0.29 0.38 0.42 0.42 0.39 0.35EH12 8SY 21 1.06 2.15 3.15 3.43 3.11 2.50 1.85 1.30EH12 8SZ 11 0.51 1.01 1.50 1.68 1.58 1.32 1.02 0.75EH12 8TA 7 0.15 0.31 0.51 0.66 0.73 0.74 0.69 0.61EH12 8TB 12 0.05 0.15 0.33 0.53 0.71 0.85 0.93 0.95EH12 8TD 13 0.28 0.57 0.94 1.22 1.36 1.37 1.28 1.13

Total 153 3.07 6.53 10.58 13.24 14.28 14.11 13.16 11.87

Cumulative 3.07 9.6 20.18 33.42 47.7 61.81 74.97 86.84

Calculate 50% of the households = 153 2 = 76½

Cumulate the distribution to find in which band the median point lies.

PayCheck

Calculating the median of an areaPostcode Households 0-5K 5-10K 10-15K 15-20K 20-25K 25-30K 30-35K 35-40KEH12 8SL 6 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.23 0.32 0.39 0.44 0.46EH12 8SN 1 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.08EH12 8SP 12 0.10 0.25 0.48 0.71 0.9 1.01 1.05 1.02EH12 8SQ 6 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.33 0.40 0.45 0.46EH12 8SR 2 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.11 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.17EH12 8SS 3 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.17 0.20 0.22 0.23EH12 8ST 10 0.04 0.11 0.25 0.41 0.56 0.68 0.75 0.78EH12 8SU 9 0.46 0.93 1.36 1.48 1.33 1.07 0.79 0.55EH12 8SW 36 0.26 0.67 1.31 2.00 2.56 2.92 3.06 3.03EH12 8SX 4 0.09 0.17 0.29 0.38 0.42 0.42 0.39 0.35EH12 8SY 21 1.06 2.15 3.15 3.43 3.11 2.50 1.85 1.30EH12 8SZ 11 0.51 1.01 1.50 1.68 1.58 1.32 1.02 0.75EH12 8TA 7 0.15 0.31 0.51 0.66 0.73 0.74 0.69 0.61EH12 8TB 12 0.05 0.15 0.33 0.53 0.71 0.85 0.93 0.95EH12 8TD 13 0.28 0.57 0.94 1.22 1.36 1.37 1.28 1.13

Total 153 3.07 6.53 10.58 13.24 14.28 14.11 13.16 11.87

Cumulative 3.07 9.6 20.18 33.42 47.7 61.81 74.97 86.84

Cumulate the distribution to find in which band the median point lies – £35-40kFrom the start of the band (74.97) to the end of the band (86.84) there are 11.87 households.

PayCheck

Calculating the median of an areaPostcode Households 0-5K 5-10K 10-15K 15-20K 20-25K 25-30K 30-35K 35-40KEH12 8SL 6 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.23 0.32 0.39 0.44 0.46EH12 8SN 1 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.08EH12 8SP 12 0.10 0.25 0.48 0.71 0.9 1.01 1.05 1.02EH12 8SQ 6 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.33 0.40 0.45 0.46EH12 8SR 2 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.11 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.17EH12 8SS 3 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.17 0.20 0.22 0.23EH12 8ST 10 0.04 0.11 0.25 0.41 0.56 0.68 0.75 0.78EH12 8SU 9 0.46 0.93 1.36 1.48 1.33 1.07 0.79 0.55EH12 8SW 36 0.26 0.67 1.31 2.00 2.56 2.92 3.06 3.03EH12 8SX 4 0.09 0.17 0.29 0.38 0.42 0.42 0.39 0.35EH12 8SY 21 1.06 2.15 3.15 3.43 3.11 2.50 1.85 1.30EH12 8SZ 11 0.51 1.01 1.50 1.68 1.58 1.32 1.02 0.75EH12 8TA 7 0.15 0.31 0.51 0.66 0.73 0.74 0.69 0.61EH12 8TB 12 0.05 0.15 0.33 0.53 0.71 0.85 0.93 0.95EH12 8TD 13 0.28 0.57 0.94 1.22 1.36 1.37 1.28 1.13

Total 153 3.07 6.53 10.58 13.24 14.28 14.11 13.16 11.87

Cumulative 3.07 9.6 20.18 33.42 47.7 61.81 74.97 86.84

From the start of the band (74.97) to the end of the band (86.84) there are 11.87 households.The half way point (76½) is therefore 12.8% of the way through the band.

PayCheck

Calculating the median of an areaPostcode Households 0-5K 5-10K 10-15K 15-20K 20-25K 25-30K 30-35K 35-40KEH12 8SL 6 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.23 0.32 0.39 0.44 0.46EH12 8SN 1 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.08EH12 8SP 12 0.10 0.25 0.48 0.71 0.9 1.01 1.05 1.02EH12 8SQ 6 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.33 0.40 0.45 0.46EH12 8SR 2 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.11 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.17EH12 8SS 3 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.17 0.20 0.22 0.23EH12 8ST 10 0.04 0.11 0.25 0.41 0.56 0.68 0.75 0.78EH12 8SU 9 0.46 0.93 1.36 1.48 1.33 1.07 0.79 0.55EH12 8SW 36 0.26 0.67 1.31 2.00 2.56 2.92 3.06 3.03EH12 8SX 4 0.09 0.17 0.29 0.38 0.42 0.42 0.39 0.35EH12 8SY 21 1.06 2.15 3.15 3.43 3.11 2.50 1.85 1.30EH12 8SZ 11 0.51 1.01 1.50 1.68 1.58 1.32 1.02 0.75EH12 8TA 7 0.15 0.31 0.51 0.66 0.73 0.74 0.69 0.61EH12 8TB 12 0.05 0.15 0.33 0.53 0.71 0.85 0.93 0.95EH12 8TD 13 0.28 0.57 0.94 1.22 1.36 1.37 1.28 1.13

Total 153 3.07 6.53 10.58 13.24 14.28 14.11 13.16 11.87

Cumulative 3.07 9.6 20.18 33.42 47.7 61.81 74.97 86.84

The half way point (76½) is therefore 12.8% of the way through the band.Assuming an even distribution across the band……

PayCheck

Calculating the median of an areaPostcode Households 0-5K 5-10K 10-15K 15-20K 20-25K 25-30K 30-35K 35-40KEH12 8SL 6 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.23 0.32 0.39 0.44 0.46EH12 8SN 1 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.08EH12 8SP 12 0.10 0.25 0.48 0.71 0.9 1.01 1.05 1.02EH12 8SQ 6 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.33 0.40 0.45 0.46EH12 8SR 2 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.11 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.17EH12 8SS 3 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.17 0.20 0.22 0.23EH12 8ST 10 0.04 0.11 0.25 0.41 0.56 0.68 0.75 0.78EH12 8SU 9 0.46 0.93 1.36 1.48 1.33 1.07 0.79 0.55EH12 8SW 36 0.26 0.67 1.31 2.00 2.56 2.92 3.06 3.03EH12 8SX 4 0.09 0.17 0.29 0.38 0.42 0.42 0.39 0.35EH12 8SY 21 1.06 2.15 3.15 3.43 3.11 2.50 1.85 1.30EH12 8SZ 11 0.51 1.01 1.50 1.68 1.58 1.32 1.02 0.75EH12 8TA 7 0.15 0.31 0.51 0.66 0.73 0.74 0.69 0.61EH12 8TB 12 0.05 0.15 0.33 0.53 0.71 0.85 0.93 0.95EH12 8TD 13 0.28 0.57 0.94 1.22 1.36 1.37 1.28 1.13

Total 153 3.07 6.53 10.58 13.24 14.28 14.11 13.16 11.87

Cumulative 3.07 9.6 20.18 33.42 47.7 61.81 74.97 86.84

Assuming an even distribution across the band……

We can penetrate into the band by 12.8% to get a median of £35,640

PayCheck Applications

Social exclusion DeprivationSupporting funding bidsMonitoring project successAffordable housingAffordable leisure services

PayCheck

Anything Else???Housing AffordabilityHouseholds below the “bread line”Lower quartile analysis…………

Paycheck Summary

Model of household income at very local levelsBased on very substantial, non-structured, sampleThe result is a combination of observed incomes and modelled incomes, the weighting between these two elements varying from location to locationAs a result Paycheck is not ideal for detailed time series

Questions?

Paycheck

Simon Power0131 557 0123