Making effective use of the Atlas of Living Australia in conservation assessment through advances in spatial analysis & modelling Simon Ferrier Senior Principal Research Scientist
Jan 06, 2016
Making effective use of the Atlas of Living Australia in conservation
assessment through advances in spatial analysis & modelling
Simon FerrierSenior Principal Research Scientist
Biodiversity conservation assessment & planning
Conservation status
assessment
Spatial conservationprioritisation
On-ground decision making & management action
Monitoring of conservation outcomes
Sources of spatial data on biodiversity for fine-scaled conservation assessment
In-situ biological data(field observations & specimens)
Remotely derived environmental data(raw spectral data, abiotic surfaces, land cover / habitat / vegetation mapping)
• direct information on biodiversity
BUT
• incomplete spatial coverage
• complete spatial coverage
BUT
• variable, or unknown, congruence
Adding value to primary biological data through spatial analysis & modelling
Remote mapping of climate, terrain, soils
etc
Direct biological observations
Modelling of spatial patterns in the distribution of biodiversity
Mapping of land tenure, cover &
condition
Forecasting of biodiversity persistence
Alternative land use / management
scenarios
Assessment of change in the state of biodiversity
Mapping & modelling of pressures & threats
Modelling of spatial patterns in the distribution of biodiversity
Remote mapping of climate, terrain, soils
etc
Direct biological observations
Modelling of spatial patterns in the distribution of biodiversity
Mapping of land tenure, cover &
condition
Forecasting of biodiversity persistence
Alternative land use / management
scenarios
Assessment of change in the state of biodiversity
Mapping & modelling of pressures & threats
Spectrum of distributional modelling strategies
Individual species modelling(“ecological niche modelling”)
Simultaneous multi-responsemodelling of multiple species
“Assemble first, predictlater” techniques
Modelling of emergent (collective)biodiversity properties (richness,compositional turnover etc)
• interested in individual species of particular concern• reasonable number of records per species
• interested in biodiversity as a whole• huge number of species, each with few (or no) records
Generalised dissimilarity modelling (GDM) Ferrier, S. et al (2007) Diversity & Distributions 13: 252-264
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Compositional dissimilarity between pairs of locations
Environmental& geographicalseparation
Generalised dissimilarity modelling (GDM) Ferrier, S. et al (2007) Diversity & Distributions 13: 252-264
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Least-cost pathgeographicalseparation
Site i
Site j
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Community-levelphylogenetic dissimilarity
CBA
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Generalised dissimilarity modelling (GDM) Ferrier, S. et al (2007) Diversity & Distributions 13: 252-264
Generalised dissimilarity modelling (GDM) Leathwick, J.R. et al (in press) Freshwater Biology
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Environmental distance
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Lowland, low gradient streams
Lowland hill-country streams
Lowland rivers & streams - dry climates
Mid-elevation streams - dry climates
Mid-elevation rivers & streams - wet climates
Mid-elevation rivers & streams - glacially influenced
Glacial rivers
High elevation streams – glacial
H
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High elevation streams – non-glacial
Assessment of change in the state of biodiversity
Remote mapping of climate, terrain, soils
etc
Direct biological observations
Modelling of spatial patterns in the distribution of biodiversity
Mapping of land tenure, cover &
condition
Forecasting of biodiversity persistence
Alternative land use / management
scenarios
Assessment of change in the state of biodiversity
Mapping & modelling of pressures & threats
Global analysis of protected-area coverage Ferrier, S. et al (2004) BioScience 54: 1101-1109
Quantifying biodiversity loss in MadagascarAllnutt, T., Ferrier, S. et al (2008) Conservation Letters. in press
“Original”
1950: 32.9% of species “committed to extinction”
2000: 42.0% of species “committed to extinction”
Forecasting of biodiversity persistence
Remote mapping of climate, terrain, soils
etc
Direct biological observations
Modelling of spatial patterns in the distribution of biodiversity
Mapping of land tenure, cover &
condition
Forecasting of biodiversity persistence
Alternative land use / management
scenarios
Assessment of change in the state of biodiversity
Mapping & modelling of pressures & threats
Dynamic modelling of future habitat conditionDrielsma, M. & Ferrier, S. (2006) Ecological Management & Restoration 7: 45-52
Current habitat condition
Future habitat condition
Land-use / management Pressures / threats
Modelling of future change in habitat condition
Model parameters(based onexpert knowledge)
Modelling of potential impact of climate change on plant community composition (Logan, V., Ferrier, S., Manion, G. in prep)
Floristic survey data
Current climate surfaces
GDM analysis of compositional turnover in
relation to current climate
Potential change in composition (2050 high-emissions scenario)
Modelling of biodiversity persistence as a foundation for conservation planning & decision-making
Mapping of priorities for management
action
Modelling of biodiversity persistence
Planning and decision-making
Value ‘y’
Knowledge and data on ecological, social and economic systems
Modelling of multiple environmental, social & economic values
Evaluationof alternativeregional plansor scenarios
Value ‘x’
Automated development ofregional plans(optimisation)
Assessmentof specificon-groundproposals
etc ...
Modelling of biodiversity persistence as a foundation for conservation planning & decision-making
Need model evaluation, adaptive feedback and refinement
Remote mapping of climate, terrain, soils
etc
Direct biological observations
Modelling of spatial patterns in the distribution of biodiversity
Mapping of land tenure, cover &
condition
Forecasting of biodiversity persistence
Alternative land use / management
scenarios
Assessment of change in the state of biodiversity
Mapping & modelling of pressures & threats
On
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Survey gap analysis
most similar
less similar
most different
existing site
survey siteselected
Trial GDM-based analysis of ANHAT data by Department of Environment, Water, Heritage & the Arts (DEWHA)
Biological records(example: terrestrial gastropods)
Environmental layers
Modelled patterns of community composition
Derived analyses
Endemism
Protected areacoverage
Survey gap analysis
Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au
Thank you
CSIRO EntomologySimon FerrierSenior Principal Research Scientist
Phone: +61 2 62464191Email: [email protected]: www.csiro.au/entomology