Ahmad Nadeem Syed Winning Against SIM Box Fraud is Possible
Ahmad Nadeem Syed
Winning Against SIM Box Fraud is Possible
Winning against SIM Box Fraud is only Possible with a Complete Framework
A Successfully Implemented Formula
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
SIM Box Network
Money Flow
Legal Call Flow
Illegal Call Flow
¢ 2.0
Termination rate ¢ 8.8 LDI Share ¢ 5.0
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
SIM Box Fraud Management Framework
Collective Responsibility
Capacity Building and
Analytics
Detection Controls
Prevention Controls
SIM fraud control is impossible if a comprehensive framework is not put in place for sustainable success
No vendor can do it alone
No Operator has ever won in isolation
No single solution is could be a winner
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Collective Responsibility - SIM Box Steer-Co
SIM Box
Steer-co
RAFM
Lead Role
Corp. Affairs
Technology
Customer Services
Sales
Interconnect
Role of Steer-Co
● Formulation of policies and action plan
● Reviewing progress and Monitoring
● Coordinating with Regulator
● Monthly Monitoring - RACI Matrix with KPIR (Responsible)A (Accountable)C (Consulted)I (Information)
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Capacity Building and AnalyticsIn-House
On-net Traffic
Off-net Traffic
International trafficCell Sites
Supply channels
Subscription
SIM Box Info
Fraudsters
Other
Data Feeds
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Analytics – Identifying Machine Behavior (Example)
• Calls by a MSISDN per day• Call Interval• Calls to unique numbers• Cell Site• Movement• On-net vs Off-net
Usage
• Recharge per day• Recharge denomination• Recharge platform• Recharge outlet
Recharge
• SIM activation by sales channels• Disowning and reactivation• Activation timings
Activation
Used for
● Identification of Machine Behavior● Profile development● Identification of abnormal Sales Patterns● Other
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Human vs Machine Behavior
Grey Traffic
More Cost
SIM Boxer
SuccessThe More they get closer to Human Behavior the more it costs to them in
terms of Capex and Opex
Grey Traffic
Less Cost
SIM Boxer
FailureThe contrary to the above is a failure in curbing grey Traffic
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Analytics – Some Sample ReportsA Few Analysis
● International traffic vs Blocking● Revenue per blocked SIM trending● International vs off-net traffic● Grey Traffic quantum analysis● Profile trending● Sales channels trending● Revenue loss trending● TCG vs CDR blocking trends● TCG call termination analysis● Vendor vs In-house blocking analysis● Grey SIM life analysis and trends● Commissions analysis● Traffic trending and analysis by country● Traffic trend by carrier● Recharge analysis by retailer and
platform● Activation by IMEIs and MSISDN● False Positive analysis● Inactive SIM analysis● Others
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Detective Framework
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Combination of Tools
Tools
CDR
ManualTCG
Solution Provider
In-House
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
CDR Analysis - Cat and Rat Race
Profile Management
● Fraudsters change their calling pattern very quickly ● Very close coordination with solution provider● Rigorous monitoring and updating on daily basis
Managing False Positive
● A Reality – Management need to be convinced● Maintaining at minimum● Quick restoration mechanism
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Test Call Generator
● As a complementary tool and not the primary
● Call originating planning, monthly review and revision
● Regular SIM replacement
● Link analysis and finding the traces
● Very effective in off-net call tracing
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Efficient Response Time● Profile Management
o Daily Reviewo Daily update, if required
● Automatic blocking on HLRo TCG – As detectedo CDR – Every 10-30 Minutes
● CRM updating - Parallel● Quick False Positive Restoration
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Preventive Framework
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
SIM BoxerSIM
Boxer
FinancerFinancer
SIM Supplier
SIM Supplier
ActivationActivation
RechargeRecharge
SIM Box Network (In Country)
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Cutting the Supply line
No Success unless the Grey SIM Supply Line is cut or made difficult to get
54%
17%
10%12%
4% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0 to 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 60 61 to 90 > 91
No. of Days Since Active
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Grey Sales Channels Reporting
AA61%
XX18%
YY9%
ZZ10%
others2%
Grey Sale Share By Region/Sector
Franchise_ID No. Franchise Name City
A001 1099 ABC AAAA
A002 884 ABC BBBBB
A003 782 ABC CCCCCC
A004 650 ABC DDDDD
A005 520 ABC EEEEEE
A006 508 ABC FFFFFF
A007 355 ABC GGGGG
A008 343 ABC HHHHHH
A009 263 ABC III II I I I
A010 237 ABC JJJJJJJJJJ
Grey Sales - Top 10 Franchisee
Sale ID No.Sales
PersonCity
B001 561 ABC AAAA
B002 382 ABC BBBBB
B003 370 ABC CCCCCC
B004 317 ABC DDDDD
B005 315 ABC EEEEEE
B006 242 ABC FFFFFF
B007 196 ABC GGGGG
B008 195 ABC HHHHHH
B009 191 ABC IIIII I I I
B010 154 ABC JJJJJJJJJJ
Grey Sales - Top 10 Sales Persons
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Punitive Actions
● Warnings● Commission claw back● Suspension ● Termination
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Know Your Fraudster (KYF) Tool
Hot line, contact and reporting portal for fraudsters info
Maintaining a data base of all SMIs/CNICs, sales Persons involved in
Grey Traffic and other Frauds
Integrated with CRM/BVS giving the ability to block the sales to
fraudsters
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Winning Indicators
International Traffic
Grey Traffic Rate
Grey SIM Life
Grey SIM Market Rate
Market Feedback
Shift of Grey via Off-net
Ahmad Nadeem Syed - [email protected]
Ahmad Nadeem SyedMob: 0092 300 8562871