Shane Nagle, CFA 416.869.7936 [email protected]Associate: Craig Thompson 416.869.6538 [email protected]SILVER WHEATON CORP. EVERY CLOUD HAS A SILVER WHEATON INITIATING COVERAGE SLW (TSX) Cdn$24.68; SLW (NYSE) US$23.87 Stock Rating: Outperform Risk Rating: Above Average 12-Month Target: $37.50 12-Month Return (incl. 2% dividend yield): 54% Shares O/S: 354.4 Mln Market Cap: $8,746 Mln HIGHLIGHTS n Fully funded near-term growth in silver sales. SLW is forecasting 33.5 mln oz of AgEq sales in 2013 (NBF estimates 32.5 mln oz AgEq) with near-term growth largely derived from three streams coming online in 2015: Constancia, Pascua-Lama and Rosemont – SLW anticipates sales of approximately 53 mln oz of AgEq by 2017 (NBF estimates 50 mln oz AgEq). n Current market conditions present ideal hunting ground for new streams. SLW has ~US$1.0 billion of available cash and credit to hunt for new acquisitions. Additionally, there are several opportunities to fund incremental growth through its existing portfolio, via monetization of a gold stream at Constancia (in addition to the current silver stream), extending the silver agreement at Cozamin and future expansion opportunities at Salobo. n Royalty/streaming model remains a compelling alternative to traditional mining equities and ETFs; however, not entirely without risk. SLW's cash flow remains exposed to potential development delays, most significantly at Barrick Gold's Pascua-Lama project - SLW has the option to cancel the silver purchase agreement and have its initial investment returned should the project not pass certain completion tests; however, the stream's US$1.4 billion NAV exceeds SLW's initial US$625 million investment to which it is entitled. n Trading at a discount to historical multiples. We are initiating coverage of Silver Wheaton with a $37.50 target price and Outperform rating supported by the company's fully funded near-term production growth, strong/stable operating margins and compelling valuation. SLW currently trades at 13.5x EV/2013E CF, at the low end of historical ranges and a discount to RGLD/FNV trading at 18.2x. Industry Rating (Metals & Mining): Market Weight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group) All dollar amounts in Cdn$ unless otherwise noted. All pricing as at June 4, 2013 June 5, 2013 EQUITY RESEARCH
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SILVER WHEATON CORP....FINANCIAL AND OPERATING SUMMARY: SILVER WHEATON CORP. STOCK RATING Outperform TICKER SLW-T TARGET PRICE (C$) $37.50 CURRENT PRICE (C$) $24.68 RETURN TO TARGET
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� Fully funded near-term growth in silver sales. SLW is forecasting 33.5 mln oz of AgEqsales in 2013 (NBF estimates 32.5 mln oz AgEq) with near-term growth largely derivedfrom three streams coming online in 2015: Constancia, Pascua-Lama and Rosemont –SLW anticipates sales of approximately 53 mln oz of AgEq by 2017 (NBF estimates 50 mlnoz AgEq).
� Current market conditions present ideal hunting ground for new streams. SLWhas ~US$1.0 billion of available cash and credit to hunt for new acquisitions. Additionally,there are several opportunities to fund incremental growth through its existing portfolio,via monetization of a gold stream at Constancia (in addition to the current silver stream),extending the silver agreement at Cozamin and future expansion opportunities at Salobo.
� Royalty/streaming model remains a compelling alternative to traditional miningequities and ETFs; however, not entirely without risk. SLW's cash flow remains exposedto potential development delays, most significantly at Barrick Gold's Pascua-Lama project- SLW has the option to cancel the silver purchase agreement and have its initial investmentreturned should the project not pass certain completion tests; however, the stream's US$1.4billion NAV exceeds SLW's initial US$625 million investment to which it is entitled.
� Trading at a discount to historical multiples. We are initiating coverage of SilverWheaton with a $37.50 target price and Outperform rating supported by the company'sfully funded near-term production growth, strong/stable operating margins and compellingvaluation. SLW currently trades at 13.5x EV/2013E CF, at the low end of historical rangesand a discount to RGLD/FNV trading at 18.2x.
Salobo NAV (5%), US$MSan Dimas NAV (5%), US$MSudbury (Vale) NAV (5%), US$MZinkgruvan NAV (5%), US$M777 NAV (5%), US$MOther Project's NAV (5%-12%), US$M
COMPANY OVERVIEW Silver Wheaton Corp. is the largest global precious metal streaming company with a market capitalization of $8.75 billion and a portfolio of silver/gold streams on some of the largest mines worldwide. The company is based in Vancouver, British Columbia and trades on both the TSX and NYSE under the symbol SLW. Silver Wheaton was founded in 2004 as a spinoff from Wheaton River Minerals Ltd., a mid-tier gold producer that merged with Goldcorp Inc. (G-T, not rated) in 2005.
Silver Wheaton’s royalty portfolio is diversified across 19 different operating mines with four additional development projects. Approximately 80% - 90% of the company’s current attributable silver production comes from mines with lowest quartile cash costs, making the company less exposed to periods of weak commodity prices. The company has an attributable reserve base of 847.6 million oz of silver and 4.9 million oz of gold (1.7 billion oz of total attributable silver resources – all categories), making it one of the largest silver companies in the world.
FIGURE 1: MAP OF ASSETS
Source: Company Reports
Silver Wheaton’s silver/gold streaming agreements consist of an upfront payment to the mine operator in exchange for the right to purchase future production (often for the life of the mine (LOM)) at the lower of spot or a pre-determined fixed price (subject to annual inflationary adjustments in some cases). The streaming model is attractive for investors looking to maintain exposure to future exploration success, expansion possibilities and metal price movements while helping to reduce other risks typically associated with mining – including; capital cost overruns, operating cost escalation and environmental liabilities. With current market conditions not conducive to funding development or expansion opportunities through traditional equity/debt markets, senior mining companies are increasingly looking for additional sources of funding. The most recent examples include Cobre-Panama (a majority of precious metal production was purchased by Franco-Nevada for US$1.0 billion), Constancia (100% of LOM silver acquired by SLW for US$295 million) and Salobo (25% of LOM gold production acquired by SLW for US$1.33 billion).
Fully Funded 11% CAGR in Sales Over Next Four Years SLW is forecasting sales of 33.5 mln oz AgEq (including 145,000 oz of gold) in 2013 (NBF 2013E is 32.5 mln oz AgEq) with near-term attributable sales growth largely derived from the addition of the Constancia, Pascua-Lama and Rosemont projects. SLW anticipates sales of approximately 53 mln oz AgEq (including 180,000 oz of gold) by 2017 (NBF’s 2017E is 50 mln oz AgEq).
As of March 31, 2013, SLW had US$76 million in cash and cash equivalents, with a fully undrawn US$1.0 billion Revolving Credit Facility (expiring February 2018). The company had also drawn US$1.09 billion from a Bridge Facility to partially fund the acquisition of the Sudbury and Salobo gold streams from Vale. Subsequent to quarter end, the company has completely repaid the Bridge Facility and secured a US$1.0 billion three-year Term Loan, with proceeds used to completely repay the Bridge Facility and reduce the amount outstanding on the Revolving Facility to US$60 million. NBF estimates the company’s balance sheet at the end of Q2 2013 to consist of ~US$140 million in cash, US$940 million of available credit and US$1.06 billion of long-term debt outstanding (US$1.0 billion Term Loan and US$60 million drawn on the Revolving Facility). The company’s near-term capital commitments (illustrated in Figure 2) are fully funded.
Term Loan - - - $1,000 - -Revolving Credit Facility $60.0 - - - - -Total $185.0 $240.0 $115.0 $1,000 - $32.4Source: NBF Estimates / Company Reports - We model the final 2 installments to HudBay for Constancia in Q3/13 and Q1/14 - We model payments to Augusta for Rosemont in equal installments throughout 2014/2015 - The company may be required to fund an additional US$67 – US$400 mln for future expansion of Salobo; any such requirement is not likely until post-2018 (we currently don’t model any future expansion/payments to Vale) - Navidad payment to Pan American Silver assumes successful permitting/satisfied conditions by 2018 - US$1.0 bln Term Loan is extendable by one year given unanimous consent of the lenders - We assumed repayment of US$60 mln outstanding on the Revolving Credit Facility in Q3/13, leaving US$1.0 bln fully undrawn until expiry in Q1 2018
Portfolio of Equity Investments Act as Exploration Arm Silver Wheaton’s strategy for investing in junior mining companies is to selectively invest in opportunities where the geology looks favourable and a significant investment in the company may lead to future streaming opportunities. The company’s current investment in four junior silver developers accounts for ~1% of our NAV, including:
• 15% of Bear Creek Mining Corp. (BCM-V, not rated), • 11% of Mines Management, Inc. (MGT-T, not rated), • 17% of Revett Minerals Inc. (RVM-T, not rated), and • 7% of Sabina Gold & Silver (SBB-T, $4.00 TP, Sector Perform).
We expect to see additional investments in junior exploration companies where opportunities exist to gain exposure to potential world-class silver assets, via private placements, streaming option agreements, etc…
1 – Stable Operating Base & Near-Term Production Growth Silver Wheaton’s 19 operating streams are expected to generate more than US$700 million of operating cash flow in 2013 (NBF Estimate). These operations are mainly non-primary silver mines (i.e., base metal and gold mines) operated by leading large-cap mining companies – the most significant of which include Penasquito (20% of NAV) operated by Goldcorp, San Dimas (18% of NAV) operated by Primero Mining Corp. and Pascua-Lama (including Lagunas Norte, Piriena and Veladero; 16% of NAV) operated by Barrick Gold Corp.
Silver Wheaton’s operating base is further complemented by a suite of development assets set to increase attributable silver production to ~50 mln oz of AgEq by 2017, from 32.5 mln oz in 2013 (NBF Estimates). Production growth will come from the addition of Constancia (HudBay Minerals Inc. – 1.7 mln oz/yr of Ag over 15+ years), Pascua-Lama (Barrick Gold – 9 mln oz/yr of Ag over 25+ years) and Rosemont (Augusta Resources Corp. – 3.6 mln oz/yr AqEq over 20+ years).
FIGURE 3: SILVER EQUIVALENT PRODUCTION GROWTH
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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es (
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Source: NBF Estimates / Company Reports
SLW’s remaining funding commitments total US$480 million over the next four years and include two installments of US$125 million each to HudBay for the constriction of Constancia and US$230 million payable in installments to Augusta Resources to fund construction of Rosemont. Additional funding requirements may include US$32.5 million payable to Pan American Silver Corp. for the Navidad (Loma de La Plata) silver stream - following satisfactory conditions (including permits), and US$67-US$400 million of additional capital to Vale for subsequent expansion of the Salobo operation (payments are determined by magnitude and timing of future expansions). We don’t currently model any subsequent expansion at Salobo beyond 24 mln tpa in 2015; however, assuming a doubling of plant capacity (to 48 mln tpa) and full US$400 million payment by 2020, our NAV at Salobo increases by 5%. With approximately US$1.0 billion of available cash and credit and no debt repayment until the US$1.0 billion Term Loan is due in 2016 (extendable to 2017), SLW’s near-term growth commitments remain fully funded (Figure 4).
Acquisition Costs Debt Repayment (incl. Interest)CFO (before W/C) New Equity (incl. Warrants/Options)Proceeds From Debt Cash Balance
Source: NBF Estimates / Company Reports
Within the company’s royalty portfolio, there also exists several opportunities to further increase attributable silver sales via extending current streaming agreements, like additional funding for subsequent expansions at Salobo, or potentially extending the current silver stream agreement at Capstone Mining Corp.’s Cozamin mine (which is set to expire in 2017). SLW may also leverage current agreements into new streams with existing counterparties, like potentially acquiring a gold stream at Constancia from HudBay (in addition to the 100% silver stream), or acquiring a silver stream at Pinto Valley from Capstone - which both parties could use to fund future development projects. We highlight our “best case” silver profile in Figure 5 below assuming each of these growth prospects within SLW’s portfolio comes to fruition.
FIGURE 5: INCREMENTAL GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN SLW’S CURRENT PORTFOLIO
2 – Strong Silver Margins with Protection from Rising Costs Rising costs, including equipment, fuel, steel, labour, consulting, engineering and construction costs have all contributed towards the deterioration of profit margins throughout the mining industry in recent years.
Royalty companies (including Silver Wheaton) are an attractive equity alternative with minimal operating cost uncertainty as the company’s streaming agreements are set at fixed prices over the life of each operation (in most cases).
Since the beginning of 2010 capital and operating costs have increased an average 10% - 20%; the silver price over this period has risen 60% (Figure 6).
FIGURE 6: COST INFLATION VS. SILVER PRICE APPRECIATION
Silver Wheaton has remained relatively insulated from these rising costs, maintaining strong operating margins as all agreements have fixed costs over the life of the agreement (occasionally costs are subject to annual inflationary adjustments). The company also benefits from lower effective tax rates than most operating companies by structuring its acquisitions accordingly, paying more upfront so counterparties pay future taxes on revenue generated from silver production. In 2012, operating margins averaged 86.2% (82.5% incorporating COGS and G&A costs – which are also better than other mining companies as Silver Wheaton has less than 30 full-time employees including support staff) while overall cash flow margins (CFO/revenue) were 83% – benefitting from an effective tax rate of just 2.5%.
3 – Leverage to Silver with Benefit of Dividend As a non-operating company with precious metal streams in place on several large/low-cost operations, Silver Wheaton’s revenue is primarily leveraged to movements in commodity prices (more specifically silver, as 77% of 2013E revenue is generated from silver). As evidenced by the coefficient of determination from regression analysis (R2 = 0.96), SLW’s share price is highly correlated to movements in the silver price.
FIGURE 8: QUARTERLY AVERAGE SHARE PRICE & SILVER PRICE REGRESSION
y = 0.7887x + 4.8826R2 = 0.9559
$0
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$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50SLW Share Price, US$
Silv
er
Pri
ce
, US
$/o
z
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 9 below highlights the historical trading range of SLW/silver, trading within a range of 0.7x - 1.15x over the past five years. The ratio is currently at 1.06x, above the five-year average of 0.93x, however, in line with the average since the beginning of 2011.
FIGURE 9: SLW/SILVER RATIO
0.0x
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$50.00
Sh
are
Pri
ce, $
SLW/Ag Ratio
SLW-T
0.71x to 1.15x (+/- 1σ)
Currently 1.06x
Source: Bloomberg
SLW has appeared to underperform silver since late 2012 as Pascua-Lama suffered from delays in development – the impact of which now appears to be priced into the shares. We anticipate SLW to outperform the underlying commodity price in the coming months as cash flow is set to benefit from the acquisition of the two most recent streams (777 and Vale). Additionally, the company’s dividend is currently yielding 2% with an expected 2013E dividend of $0.48 per share (NBF Estimate).
The Q2 dividend of $0.12 per share announced in mid-May was based on 20% of the average quarterly cash flow over the past two quarters (Q4 2012 and Q1 2013). The Q3 dividend will be based on 20% of operating cash flow over the previous three quarters (Q4 2012, Q1 2013 and Q2 2013), with subsequent quarterly dividends based on 20% of the average operating cash flow from the previous four quarters. Our modeled dividend increase is outlined below with the impact of +/- 10% movement in silver price on expected dividend and our modeled yield (base case).
FIGURE 10: STABLE/GROWING DIVIDEND
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2011A
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2013E
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An
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al D
ivid
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ha
re, C
$
0.0%
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Yie
ld, %
Dividend Yield
Source: NBF Estimates / Company Reports
SLW’s current yield is compared with royalty/silver producing peers in Figure 11 below.
FIGURE 11: SLW 2013E DIVIDEND YIELD COMPARED WITH PEERS
4 – Compelling Valuation Relative to Historic Multiples SLW is currently trading at 13.5x EV/2013E CF and 12.0x EV/ 2014E CF, compared with royalty peers (FNV, RGLD & SSL) at 17.0x/12.2x and senior silver producers trading at 7.7x/5.9x.
The shares are trading at 0.94x NAV, compared with royalty peers at 1.07x and the rest of our gold producer coverage universe at 0.76x – a warranted premium to operating peers given SLW’s low/fixed operating costs, fully funded near-term production growth, strong management team and ‘go-to’ status for silver exposure.
SLW is also trading at the lower end of historical ranges based on EV/EBITDA and P/E – illustrated in Figures 12 and 13 below. SLW shares have traded down recently as a result of weaker silver prices and recently announced delays in the development of Pascua-Lama.
1 - Increased Competition for High Quality Streams With royalty companies outperforming their mining peers in recent years, the royalty model has attracted additional competition for smaller streaming agreements. Existing royalty companies were forced to pay up for smaller transactions and focus on completing larger/more accretive deals. With FNV, RGLD and SLW all having strong balance sheets and access to additional capital, the competition for these larger transactions is fierce.
Despite the increased competition for high-quality streams, SLW’s all-in acquisition costs appear to have remained fairly consistent since inception when comparing each transaction to spot commodity prices.
FIGURE 14: SLW HISTORICAL TRANSACTIONS (BASED ON ALL-IN COST PER OUNCE COMPARED TO SPOT)
Source: NBF Company Reports All resources/costs based on AgEq – with the exception of Salobo/Sudbury which are shown as gold only
SLW typically completes acquisitions based on long-term consensus silver/gold estimates (or ~75% of spot) to determine acquisition NAV and IRR. As illustrated in Figure 15 below, periods of elevated prices increase the asking price for streams and result in lower IRR of the acquisition. From late 2010 until early January 2013, the steeply rising silver price not only impacted the implied valuations of silver stream acquisitions, it was also a period where capital was more readily available to project operators – which combined led to higher acquisition costs and a lack of available high-quality streams. Despite increased competition recently for larger streams (not only from FNV and RGLD, but also from banks, hedge funds and private equity), a period of lower commodity prices and several operators with limited access to capital should present opportunities for more acquisitions in the coming months.
2 – Streaming Model Not Immune to Development Delays Despite being immune to most operating cost increases, SLW’s cash flow is exposed to development delays stemming from longer design periods (industry bottlenecks), construction delays, declining production and/or work stoppages (i.e., labour disputes).
We highlight the impact of potential delays in the company’s next two streams coming online (Constancia and Pascua-Lama). As of March 31, 2013, HudBay spent US$480 million and committed an additional US$534 million of Constancia’s estimated US$1.5 billion capital cost. At Pascua-Lama, the Chilean government imposed the suspension of development activities until more than 20 areas related to the Environmental Impact Assessment undergo significant improvement (primarily related to improved water management system and dust mitigation). The impact of any delay in these two projects on our cash flow and valuation for SLW are outlined in Figure 16 below – note: we highlight the worst-case scenario by removing these projects completely from our valuation, which given the current stage of completion is unlikely to materialize.
FIGURE 16: IMPACT OF VALUATION EXCLUDING CONSTANCIA & PASCUA-LAMA
RISKS 1. Political/Tax/Regulatory: Due to the size, complexity and nature of SLW’s operations, various legal/tax matters are outstanding from time to time. An audit of SLW’s internal transactions is currently ongoing covering the 2005 to 2010 taxation years. We don’t anticipate any material impact from the CRA audit and suspect that the current length of the review has been impacted by the fact that SLW is the first pure streaming company to be audited. Should the review lead to a ruling that has a material adverse impact to SLW’s taxation, the company would likely appeal; however, if any issues are unable to be resolved, there may be an impact on the company’s future financial performance and cash flow.
2. Non-Operator Risk: By not operating the assets within its royalty portfolio, Silver Wheaton does not directly control the production or development of each asset. Any delays in the forecasted production schedule could negatively impact revenue and indirectly impact the valuation of the company. There can be no assurance that third-party production forecasts can be met, or that production disruptions including temporary or permanent shutdowns can be avoided. Despite these inherent risks, we believe Silver Wheaton will continue acquiring streams from large, technically sound projects operated by capable management teams to minimize the potential for future production losses.
3. Commodity Prices: By purchasing streaming interests, Silver Wheaton’s cash flow is levered to fluctuations in commodity prices – namely silver and gold. Price movements in commodities are impacted by several external factors out of the company’s control, including interest rates, inflation and supply and demand fundamentals.
4. Input Costs and Labour Disputes: If a mining project becomes uneconomical for the operator due to rising input costs, the mine may be temporarily or permanently shut down. Although Silver Wheaton is not directly responsible for many of the costs and expenditures associated with mine operations, any shutdowns or delays would impact recognition of royalty revenue. Similarly, if a labour dispute leads to a temporary shutdown, royalty revenue could yield less cash flow until full production resumes.
5. Financing and Dilution: In our model, Silver Wheaton generates enough cash flow (in combination with its available credit facility) to fund existing growth opportunities. Management has stated that they intend to fund future acquisitions with internally-generated funds; however, there is no guarantee that these cash flows will be sufficient to fund these ventures as they are available, potentially leading to future equity and/or debt offerings.
6. Valuation Risk: Our current valuation is based on comparable operating/royalty companies. We evaluated multiples including P/NAV, P/forward curve NAV, P/CF and EV/CF. These valuation metrics may not be a direct comparison given the operating risk associated with producing companies and varying commodity exposure and growth profiles within the big three royalty companies (FNV, RGLD and SLW).
NAV Breakdown Our NAV of $26.25 per fully diluted share is based on a DCF valuation for each of SLW’s streams, with producing assets valued at a discount rate of 5% and development assets (where future funding is also required) valued using a discount rate of 8% - the only exception is Navidad, where we use an elevated discount rate of 12% to reflect the uncertainty in the project’s development timeline given current lack of permits and faltering Argentinean currency.
Our current NAV implies a multiple of 0.94x to the current share price of $24.68 and implies a multiple of 1.43x based on our $37.50 target – NBF peers are currently trading at 1.07x NAV, with targets implying 1.54x NAV. In our experience, royalty companies typically trade at a premium to NAV when valued at spot of forward curve metal prices given the low-risk nature of future cash flows and limited capital commitments. Layering in current forward curve commodity prices (at a flat discount rate of 3%), SLW is trading at 0.80x our fwd NAV of $30.90 compared with its NBF peers (FNV, RGLD & SSL) currently trading at 0.76x fwd NAV.
FIGURE 17: SLW NAV BREAKDOWN
Base Case SpotUS$ Mln C$ per F/D share C$ per F/D share
Total NAV $9,739 $26.25 $20.50Target/NAV 1.43x 1.83xPrice/NAV 0.94x 1.20x
Fully Diluted (F/D) Shares, mln 369.2
Source: NBF Estimates Base Case Au prices: US$1611/oz in '13, US$1,700/oz in '14, US$1,800/oz in '15/'16 and US$1,400/oz in '17+ Base Case Ag prices: US$28.72/oz in '13, US$29.00/oz in '14, US$35.00/oz in '15/'16 and US$27.00/oz in '17+ Spot Prices: US$1,400/oz Au, US$22.40/oz Ag
We outline the potential growth in our forward curve NAV over the next five years in Figure 18 below (fwd curve NAV calculated by layering forward curve metal prices into our model and applying a discount rate of 3%). The graphic shows the impact on NAV from several streams coming online in 2015 including Constancia, Pascua-Lama and Rosemont.
FIGURE 18: GROWTH IN FORWARD NAV (3%)
+$0.05 +$0.60+$0.60 +$0.55
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Current Fwd NAV 1.0x Fwd NAV in2014+
1.0x Fwd NAV in2015+
1.0x Fwd NAV in2016+
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Imp
lied
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V,
US
$ p
er s
har
e
Source: NBF Estimates
Our financial summary, including silver/gold estimates, is illustrated in Figure 19 below. We model attributable silver sales growth to 50 million oz of AgEq by 2017 compared to SLW guidance of 53 million oz of AgEq as we use more conservative production assumptions across several of the company’s streaming interests. We have also modelled repayment of the US$60 million outstanding on the company’s Revolving Facility in Q3 2013 and full repayment of the Term Loan in Q2 2016 – with no additional sources of financing or allocation for additional acquisitions.
Target Price and Rating Our $37.50 target price is derived from a multiple of 15.0x EV/2014E CF (50%) + 1.43x NAV (50%).
Our cash flow component of the multiple is based on the current consensus EV/CF multiple for SLW’s royalty peers of FNV, RGLD and SSL trading at 16.5x EV/2013E CF (consensus) and 17.0xEV/2013E CF (NBF Estimates). We value SLW at a deserved premium to its silver peers trading at 7.7x EV/2013E CF, given SLW’s fully funded near-term production growth and low/stable cash costs.
We allocate a portion of our target to the company’s NAV given the company’s fully-funded near-term growth profile with silver sales increasing to 50+ mln oz of AgEq by 2017 (NBF Estimate). Our target multiple of 1.43x incorporates a multiple of 1.5x our project NAV of $28.65 per share and a 1.0x multiple to the company’s corporate adjustments (including equity interests) of $(2.40).
Our Outperform rating is supported by the company’s fully funded near-term production growth, strong/stable margins, strong management team and ‘go-to’ status within the silver space
PEER GROUP COMPARABLES We compare SLW to its peers by using a multiple of Enterprise Value to Cash Flow (EV/CF), accounting for variants in each company’s balance sheet and tax rates. Figure 21 highlights NBF estimates for SLW, FNV, RGLD and SSL with consensus estimates provided for the company’s silver-producing peers. SLW is trading at a premium to its operating silver peer group given its fixed operating costs and fully-funded growth. The company also remains at a discount to FNV; however at a premium to RGLD and SSL as RGLD’s cash flow growth is largely dependent on successful development of Mt. Milligan and SSL’s streams are on smaller, higher cost mines operated by juniors – which warrant lower valuation multiples.
FIGURE 21: SLW’S EV/CF RATIO (2013-2015) COMPARED WITH ROYALTY AND SILVER PEERS
Senior Silver Producer PeersPrecious Metal Royalty Peers
Source: Thomson / NBF Estimates
We also highlight the free cash flow yield (FCF/market cap) for each of the precious metal royalty peers and silver producers. FCF for NBF’s coverage universe is calculated after debt repayments, but before dividends to approximate free cash flow yield attributable to shareholders. Again, SLW’s free cash flow yield is more attractive than FNV but lower than RGLD and SSL; however, cash flow growth for these companies is contingent on higher risk production (including Mt. Milligan for RGLD and several high-cost single asset producers for SSL).
FIGURE 22: FCF YIELD (2013-2015) OF ROYALTY AND SILVER PEERS – AFTER DEBT/BEFORE DIVIDENDS
SENSITIVITY By purchasing precious metal streams, Silver Wheaton is largely protected from rising operating costs; however, it remains indirectly exposed to rising costs should it render the operation unprofitable. With a diversified production base and ~90% of the company’s attributable production coming from first quartile cash cost operations, we suspect this risk is largely mitigated. This leaves the company’s NAV and cash flow primarily exposed to movements in silver/gold prices. We highlight the impact of a 10% change in each of these commodities on NAV and cash flow in Figure 23 below.
FIGURE 23: SENSITIVITY OF CF/VALUATION
Silver Gold C$/US$
Corporate NAV, C$/FD $26.25 10.80% 3.07% 9.92%
2013E CFPS, US$ $2.00 7.04% 1.89% -
2014E CFPS. US$ $2.23 9.19% 2.55% -
Source: NBF Estimates
The growth in cash balance is also exposed to movements in commodity prices. We highlight the impact of various commodity prices on the growth in cash balance in Figure 24 - Silver Wheaton has US$1.0 billion of available credit that expires in 2018 that can be drawn upon to maintain a positive cash balance and/or fund future acquisitions. The US$1.0 billion debt repayment in Q2 2016 may also be deferred by a year if agreed upon unanimously by the syndicate of lenders.
FIGURE 24: GROWTH IN CASH BALANCE AT VARIOUS COMMODITY PRICES
Base Case
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Q3
/20
15
Q4
/20
15
Q1
/20
16
Q2
/20
16
Q3
/20
16
Q4
/20
16
Cas
h B
alan
ce (
US
$ m
ln)
Source: NBF Estimates / Company Reports Au price calculated at AgEq using spot prices
We also highlight the sensitivity of SLW’s free cash flow (after debt repayments and before dividends) to various silver/gold prices compared with its precious metal royalty peers in Figures 25 to 27. The sensitivity of free cash flow yields from 2013 – 2015 is more or less in-line with the company’s peers – we highlight that the lower metal prices don’t take into account lost production from higher cost producers which would impact SSL more than its peers. With ~90% of production coming from first large-cap quartile cash cost operations, SLW’s free cash flow is less sensitive than its royalty peers.
KEY STREAMS Our NAV valuation is largely comprised of eight main streams: Penasquito, San Dimas, Barrick (including Pascua-Lama, Lagunas Norte, Pierina and Veladero), Salobo, Sudbury, Neves-Corvo, 777 and Rosemont - which make up ~85% of our NAV.
FIGURE 28: NAV BREAKDOWN BY STREAM
Penasquito20%
San Dimas18%
Salobo Gold10%
Sudbury Gold (Vale)
7%
Neves-Corvo6%
777 5%
Rosemont4%
Other14%
Barrick (incl. Pascua-Lama)
16%
Source: NBF Estimates
FIGURE 29: 2013/2014 CASH FLOW BREAKDOWN BY STREAM
Penasquito (20% of NAV) Peñasquito (operated by Goldcorp) is a world-class gold-silver-lead-zinc mine located in the state of Zacatecas, Mexico. The mine is an open pit operation, consisting of two pits, two 50,000 tpd sulphide processing lines and a 30,000 tpd high pressure grinding roll circuit. Sulphide material is processed by a conventional crushing, milling and floatation circuit, producing lead and zinc concentrates. The project hosts 912 million oz of silver reserves, representing a 92% increase since Silver Wheaton originally acquired the Penasquito stream in 2007.
FIGURE 30: PENASQUITO
Operator: Goldcorp
Location: Mexico
SLW Attributable Reserves: 217.4 mln oz. Ag (Mill)
10.6 mln oz Ag (Leach)
Interest: 25% Ag Stream at $3.90/oz
2013 Production
Operator Guidance (100%), mln oz Ag 20.0 - 21.0
Silver, mln oz 5.1
Expected Mine Life: 22 Years
SLW Attributable Production (NBF Estimates)
Source: NBF Estimates / Company Reports
Silver Wheaton acquired the Penasquito stream in July 2007 for an upfront cash payment of US$485 million. Terms of the agreement included the purchase of 25% of silver produced over the entire mine life at a cost equal to the lesser of spot or US$3.90/oz (subject to an annual inflationary adjustment three years after commercial production). Goldcorp is targeting average annual production of 28 million oz/yr of silver production over a 22-year mine life, with guidance of 20.0 to 21.0 million oz in 2013 - our estimate of 20.5 million oz is in line with Goldcorp guidance.
Goldcorp is currently working on a long-term water management strategy, evaluating the development of new water sources as well as identifying opportunities to reduce water consumption in the tailings. Following this review Goldcorp could be initiating a bankable feasibility study (BFS) on the possible future expansion of the Penasquito operation – which SLW will be under no obligation to help fund.
San Dimas (18% of NAV) San Dimas (operated by Primero Mining) is a low-cost gold-silver mine in Durango, Mexico, hosting 39.4 million oz of silver reserves. San Dimas is an underground operation, using mechanized cut-and-fill mining methods followed by a milling, cyanidation, precipitation and smelting to produce doré.
FIGURE 31: SAN DIMAS
Operator: Pirmero
Location: Mexico
SLW Attributable Reserves: 39.4 mln oz Ag
Interest*:
3.5 mln oz of Ag + 50% of excess production until mid-2014; increasing thereafter to 6.0 mln oz + 50% of excess
2013 Production
Operator Guidance (100%), mln oz Ag 6.0 - 6.5
Silver, mln oz 6.5
Expected Mine Life: +20 years
SLW Attributable Production (NBF Estimates)
Source: NBF Estimates / Company Reports *As a condition of the sale of San Dimas to Primero, Goldcorp will deliver 1.5 mln oz/yr until 2015 and will guarantee Primero's deliveries through to 2029, including a $0.5/oz payment for any shortfall below 215 mln oz by 2031
The San Dimas stream was the original silver stream within Silver Wheaton’s portfolio acquired in October 2004 for an upfront payment to Goldcorp consisting of US$46 million in cash and 108 million Silver Wheaton common shares. The original silver purchase agreement was for 100% of payable silver for 25 years from Goldcorp’s San Dimas and Los Filos mines at a cost equal to the
lesser of spot or US$3.90/oz (subject to an annual inflationary price adjustment). In March 2006, Silver Wheaton and Goldcorp amended the agreement to eliminate any capital expenditure contributions from Silver Wheaton, in consideration for an additional 18 million SLW common shares (representing 9.8% of the shares outstanding at the time) and a US$20 million one-year non-interest bearing promissory note, which was paid in full on March 29, 2007.
In August 2010, Goldcorp sold the San Dimas mine to Primero Mining, prompting yet another amendment to the silver purchase agreement. Specifically, the agreement was extended from 25 years to the life of mine and minimum silver delivery guarantees were put in place. Under the revised agreement, Primero will deliver to Silver Wheaton 3.5 million oz of payable silver during the first four years following closing and Goldcorp will provide an additional 1.5 million oz/yr of silver over this period. Beginning in the fifth year after closing, Primero will deliver six million oz of payable silver produced at San Dimas and 50% production above six million oz. Goldcorp will also provide a guarantee for the delivery by Primero of all silver produced and owing to Silver Wheaton until 2029, including a payment of US$0.50/oz for any shortfall below 215 million cumulative oz of silver by the end of 2031.
As of Q1 2013, 52.6 million oz of silver have been delivered to Silver Wheaton and our modeled operating profile assumes San Dimas yields an additional 1.0 million oz above the 6.0 million oz minimum production guarantee, for a LOM average of approximately 6.5 million oz/yr deliverable to Silver Wheaton. Although not included in our valuation, the potential exists for future expansion of San Dimas to 3,000 tpd (up from 2,150 tpd in Q1 2013) and will be determined by future exploration success. Primero expects to make a decision concerning the expansion in H2 2013.
Pascua-Lama (including Lagunas Norte, Pierina & Veladero) (16% of NAV) The Pascua-Lama gold-silver project (operated by Barrick Gold Corp.) sits upon the Chile-Argentina border and is one of the largest silver deposits in the world, hosting 676 million oz of silver reserves and an additional 185 million oz of M&I silver resources. The project is expected to produce 35 million oz/yr of silver over the first five years of production (vs. NBF Estimate of 27.5 million oz/yr) and LOM annual production is expected to range between 20-25 million oz/yr over the project’s 25+ year mine life.
FIGURE 32: PASCUA-LAMA
Operator: Barrick
Location: Chile/Argentina
SLW Attributable Reserves: 169.1 mln oz Ag
Interest*:
25% Ag Stream at $3.90/oz100% of Ag from Lagunas Norte, Pierina and Veladero until the end of 2013 or project completion.
LOM Production
Operator Guidance (100%), mln oz Ag 20 - 25
Lagunas Norte, Pierina and Valedero (2013E), mln oz
2.55
Expected Mine Life: +25 years
SLW Attributable Production (NBF Estimates)
Source: NBF Estimates / Company Reports * SLW entitled to 100% of Ag production from Lagunas Norte, Pierina and Veladero mines in 2014/2015 to the extent of any production shortfall at Pascua-Lama.
Silver Wheaton acquired the Pascua-Lama stream in September 2009 for total consideration of US$625 million. Under the agreement, Silver Wheaton holds the right to purchase 25% of LOM silver production at the lesser of spot or US$3.90/oz (subject to an annual inflationary adjustment beginning three years after project completion). As part of the agreement, Silver Wheaton also acquired 100% of the silver production for US$3.90/oz from Barrick’s Lagunas Norte, Pierina and Veladero mines through to the end of 2013 or until Pascua-Lama reaches 75% of full-scale production.
Pascua-Lama has garnered much negative attention for its rampant capital cost inflation (initial capex estimate has progressively increased from US$3.5 billion originally to US$8.5 billion currently – with US$4.8 billion spent as of March 31, 2013). During Q1 2013, a Chilean preliminary court injunction suspended construction activities on the Chilean side of the project citing several environmental deficiencies associated with the project – namely dust control/mitigation measures associated with pre-stripping activities and improvements to water management systems.
As of the end of March 2013, Barrick paid a US$11.6 million fine for environmental violations and will have to present a plan to meet regulator’s 20+ requirements in the coming weeks. Barrick has cautioned that these legal/regulatory issues could have a significant impact on the capital budget and mine plan for the project and expects the project to be delayed into early 2015 – we model initial production in H1 2015, in line with Barrick’s guidance.
Importantly, Silver Wheaton is sheltered from both of these issues as its costs are limited to the original terms of the agreement and Barrick has provided a completion guarantee to protect against timing delays. Specifically, a completion guarantee calls for the completion of at least 75% of design capacity by Dec. 31, 2015 and any production shortfall is to be made up by silver production from the Lagunas Norte, Pierina and Veladero mines until Barrick satisfies the completion guarantee. Additionally, Silver Wheaton can terminate the agreement and have its upfront cash consideration returned (net of any silver deliveries received) if Barrick fails to satisfy the requirements of the completion guarantee.
With capital cost of the project on the rise and timeline in question, SLW could leverage more silver production from the operation in exchange for extending Barrick additional credit/financing alternatives.
Salobo & Sudbury Streams (17% of NAV) In February 2013, Silver Wheaton entered a gold purchase agreement with a subsidiary of Vale S.A. for 25% of LOM gold production from the Salobo mine and 70% of gold production for a 20-year period from certain Sudbury mines in Canada (including Coleman, Copper Cliff, Creighton, Garson, Stobie, Totten and the Victor project). Silver Wheaton paid a total cash consideration of US$1.9 billion, plus 10 million Silver Wheaton warrants (US$65 strike price and 10-year term), with US$1.33 billion allocated to the Salobo portion of the agreement and US$570 million for the Sudbury component. Gold purchases will be made at the lesser of spot or US$400/oz (subject to a 1% annual inflation adjustment from 2016 for Salobo).
FIGURE 33: SALOBO/SUDBURY
Operator: Vale
Location: Ontario/Brazil
SLW Attributable Reserves:3.4 mln oz Au (Salobo)
0.75 mln oz Au (Sudbury)
Interest:25% and 70% of Au production from Salobo and Sudbury respectively, at US$400/oz
2013 Production
Operator Guidance (attributable), 000's oz Au 75
Gold, 000's oz 50
Expected Mine Life: +20 years
SLW Attributable Production (NBF Estimates)
Source: NBF Estimates / Company Reports
The Salobo mine is located in Pará State, Brazil and is the largest copper deposit in Brazil. The current reserve base includes over one billion tonnes of ore grading 0.43 g/t gold. The mine commenced operation in May 2012 with a design throughput capacity of 12 million tpa. Vale has begun a second phase of construction at Salobo, aiming to expand mill capacity to 24 million tpa by the end of 2015. Our modeled production profile increases progressively from a rate of
180,000 oz/yr in 2014 to approximately 290,000 oz/yr by 2017. Silver Wheaton also committed US$67 million to US$400 million of additional funding for further expansion of the Salobo mill (payments are contingent on both timing and scale of any future expansions).
Vale's nickel operations in Sudbury are among the largest in the world, with the Sudbury gold stream covering six producing mines and one development project. From 2013 to 2015, the Sudbury mines are expected to generate an average of 30,000 oz/yr of attributable gold production - peaking once the high grade Victor deposit comes online. The combined mine life is estimated to well beyond the end of the 20-year term, based on current mineral reserves and mineral resources.
777 & Constancia (6% of NAV) Silver Wheaton acquired the 777 and Constancia streams (operated by HudBay Minerals) in August 2012 for a total consideration of US$750 million (US$500 million paid up front, with the residual amount payable in two equal installments of US$125 million once US$0.5 billion and US$1.0 billion of capital expenditures have been incurred at Constancia – we model payments in Q3 2013 and Q1 2014).
FIGURE 34: 777/CONSTANCIA
Operator: HudBay
Location: Manitoba/Peru
SLW Attributable Reserves:10.3 mln oz Ag, 0.6 mln oz Au (777) &
48.8 mln oz (Constancia)
Interest:100% of Ag (LOM) and 100% of Au at 777 until 2016 at US$5.90/oz of Ag and US$400/oz of Au
2013 Production
Operator Guidance, AuEq oz 000's: 85 - 105
Silver, oz 000's* 866
Gold, oz 000's*: 64
Expected Mine Life: +15 years
SLW Attributable Production (NBF Estimates)
Source: NBF Estimates / Company Reports *2013 production based on 777 only – Constancia expected to come online in 2015; 777 gold stream is reduced to 50% at the end of 2016 or once Constancia passes certain completion tests
The 777 component of the agreement includes 100% of payable gold and silver from 777, with the gold portion falling to 50% beyond 2016 (to be extended if commissioning of Constancia is not completed on schedule). Silver Wheaton will make ongoing per ounce payments of the lesser of spot or US$400/oz gold and US$5.90/oz silver (subject to a 1% annual inflationary adjustment after three years). The 777 mine is a high grade underground VMS mine in Manitoba, ore is mined via long-hole open stoping, with concentrating and zinc production facilities adjacent the mine. The current reserve base includes 10.3 million oz of silver and 0.6 million oz of gold and is expected to support a mine life beyond 2021.
The Constancia stream covers 100% of LOM silver production, also purchased at the lesser of spot of US$5.90/oz (subject to a 1% annual inflationary adjustment after three years). Constancia is a copper-silver-gold-molybdenum porphyry deposit located in southeastern Peru, with a reserve base that includes 48.8 million oz of silver. The mine is a proposed open-pit operation, expected to enter commercial production in mid-2015 (NBF Estimate; HudBay is targeting H2 2014 for initial production). As of Q1 2013, HudBay spent US$480 million for the development of Constancia, with an additional US$534 million committed (representing ~66% of the company’s estimated US$1.55 billion initial capital cost). All key environmental permits have been obtained and engineering/design work is essentially complete. Once fully operational, we model LOM average silver production of approximately 0.5 million oz/yr, over an estimated 15-year mine life (NBF Estimates). HudBay has provided a completion guarantee whereby it will achieve 90% of expected throughput and recovery at the processing plant by Dec. 31, 2020, otherwise Silver Wheaton would be entitled to a proportionate return of the upfront cash consideration for Constancia.
HudBay is currently evaluating various financing options to close a potential gap in the company’s overall capital budget. HudBay finished Q1 2013 with Cdn$1.05 billion in cash and US$235.5 million available on its revolving credit facility. Based on our projections, HudBay requires an additional US$175 million of finding to complete the construction of Constancia, as well as its other two development projects (Reed and Lalor). We see the potential for HudBay to come back to Silver Wheaton to upsize the current stream at Constancia to include a portion/all of future gold production from the mine. With approximately 1.0 million oz of gold reserves and annual gold production of ~25,000 oz/yr, we estimate that 50% of gold production at US$400/oz would be worth approximately US$80 million to US$100 million.
Rosemont (4% of NAV)
The Rosemont Copper Project (operated by Augusta Resources) is a copper-molybdenum-silver porphyry deposit located in Pima County, Arizona. The company is currently permitting a 75,000 tpd open-pit operation with a concentrator and SX/EW plant to treat sulfide and oxide ores. Rosemont is expected to produce an average of 221 mln lbs/yr of copper, 4.7 mln lbs/yr of molybdenum, 2.4 mln oz/yr of silver and up to 15,000 oz/yr of gold over a 20+ year mine life.
FIGURE 35: ROSEMONT
Operator: Augsta
Location: Arizona
SLW Attributable Reserves: 80 mln oz Ag
Interest:100% of LOM Au and Ag at US$450/oz of Au and US$3.90/oz Ag
LOM Annual Production
Operator Guidance, mln oz Ag 2.4
Operator Guidance, Au oz 000's: 15
Silver, mln oz Ag/yr 2.5
Gold, 000's oz/yr 16.0
Expected Mine Life: +21 years
SLW Attributable Annual Production (NBF Estimates)
Source: NBF Estimates / Company Reports
On Feb. 11, 2010, Silver Wheaton agreed to pay upfront cash payments totaling US$230 million to acquire 100% of LOM payable silver and gold for the lesser of spot and US$3.90/oz of silver and US$450/oz of gold (subject to an inflationary adjustment). The upfront payment will be made on an installment basis to partially fund construction of the mine and will commence once certain milestones are achieved, including the receipt of key operating permits.
Rosemont is in the final stages of permitting with the Record of Decision (ROD) and Clean Water Act 404 permit being the final necessary approvals. Most recently, Augusta received the Air Quality permit for Rosemont from the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) – a positive milestone as according to 404 guidelines, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) must consult with state agencies throughout the process of making their decision. Given that the ADEQ has now approved both Air and Water permits, the viability of Rosemont’s design with respect to limiting the impact on the environment has been given a significant vote of confidence.
Following receipt of all necessary permits, Augusta will have to secure additional financing for the US$1.23 billion capital budget (NBF Estimate). Discussions are ongoing with KORES, a syndicate of commercial banks and export credit agencies for the debt component of project financing. We anticipate receipt of permits in Q3 2013, with the US$230 million acquisition payments made equally throughout Q2 2014 – Q3 2015 with initial production commencing in Q4 2015.
APPENDIX 1: MANAGEMENT TEAM Randy Smallwood, President & CEO. Mr. Smallwood holds a geological engineering degree from the University of British Columbia and is one of the founding members of the company. In 2007, he joined Silver Wheaton full time as Executive Vice President of Corporate Development, primarily focusing on growing the company through the evaluation and acquisition of silver stream opportunities. In January 2010 he was appointed President, and in April 2011 he was appointed Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Smallwood originally started as an exploration geologist with Wheaton River Minerals Ltd., and in 2001 was promoted to Director of Project Development, his role through its 2005 merger with Goldcorp. Before joining the original Wheaton River group in 1993, Mr. Smallwood worked with Homestake Mining Company, Teck Corp. and Westmin Resources.
Curt Bernardi, Senior Vice President, Legal & Corporate Secretary. Mr. Bernardi has been practicing law since his call to the British Columbia bar in 1994. He worked for the law firm of Blake, Cassels & Graydon in the areas of corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions and general corporate law until leaving to join Westcoast Energy in 1998. Following the acquisition of Westcoast Energy by Duke Energy in 2002, Mr. Bernardi continued to work for Duke Energy Gas Transmission as in-house legal counsel, working primarily on reorganizations, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and general corporate/commercial work. In 2005, Mr. Bernardi joined Union Gas as its Director, Legal Affairs and was responsible for legal matters affecting Union Gas. He obtained his Bachelor of Commerce from the University of British Columbia and his Bachelor of Law from the University of Toronto.
Gary Brown, Senior Vice President & CFO. Mr. Brown is a finance professional with over 20 years of experience across a broad range of finance and business disciplines. He joined Silver Wheaton in 2008. Prior to Silver Wheaton, he was CFO of TIR Systems Ltd., during which time he was instrumental in the company’s acquisition by Royal Philips Electronics. He also held senior finance positions at CAE Inc., Westcoast Energy Inc. and Creo Inc., and holds designations as both a chartered accountant and a chartered financial analyst.
Haytham Hodaly, Senior Vice President Corporate Development. Mr. Hodaly joined the company in 2012 and has over 16 years of experience in the North American securities industry, most recently as Director and Mining Analyst at RBC Capital Markets. Prior to this, Mr. Hodaly held the position of Co-Director of Research and Senior Mining Analyst at Salman Partners Inc., in addition to holding the titles of Vice President and Director of the firm. Mr. Hodaly is an engineer with a B.A.Sc. in Mining and Mineral Processing Engineering and a Masters of Engineering, specializing in Mineral Economics.
APPENDIX 2: BOARD OF DIRECTORS The company has an eight-member Board of Directors of which Douglas Holtby is the Chairman. Mr. Holtby is currently the Vice Chairman of the Board and Lead Director of Goldcorp and President and CEO of Holtby Capital Corporation, a private investment company. The board also includes:
Lawrence Bell. Mr. Bell served as the non-executive Chairman of British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority until December 2007. He is also a director of Capstone Mining Corp. and Matrix Asset Management Inc. and is the former Chairman of the University of British Columbia Board of Directors and former Chairman of Canada Line (Rapid Transit) Project. In the province's public sector, Mr. Bell served as Deputy Minister of Finance and Secretary to the Treasury Board.
George Brack. Mr. Brack is the Chairman of both Capstone Mining Corp. and Alexco Resource Corp. and serves as a director of Aurizon Mines Ltd., Geologix Explorations Inc. and Newstrike Capital Inc. Mr. Brack's 28-year career in the mining industry has focused on investment banking and corporate development, specifically as the Managing Director and Industry Head, Mining Group, of Scotia Capital and President of Macquarie North America Ltd.
John Brough. Mr. Brough had been President of both Torwest, Inc. and Wittington Properties Limited, real estate development companies. He is currently a director and Chairman of the Audit Committee of Kinross Gold Corporation, a director and Chairman of the Audit Committee and Lead Director of First National Financial Corporation, and a director and Chairman of the Audit Committee of Canadian REIT.
Peter Gillin. Mr. Gillin was Chairman and CEO of Tahera Diamond Corporation from October 2003 to September 2008 and Chief Restructuring Officer until December 2008. Mr. Gillin is also a member of the Independent Review Committee of TD Asset Management Inc., a director of Trillium Health Care Products Inc., Sherritt International Corporation and Dundee Precious Metals Inc., as well as a former director of HudBay Minerals Inc.
Eduardo Luna. Mr. Luna is currently Director, President and CEO of Rochester Resources Ltd., Advisor and Director of Primero Mining Corp. and advisor of Mercator Minerals Ltd. Mr. Luna was Chairman of Silver Wheaton from October 2004 to May 2009 (and was Interim Chief Executive Officer from October 2004 to April 2006). He is the former President of the Mexican Mining Chamber and the former President of the Silver Institute. He serves as Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Faculty of Mines at the University of Guanajuato and of the Mineral Resources Council in Mexico.
Wade Nesmith. Mr. Nesmith is currently Chairman of Primero Mining Corp., and from 2004 to 2009 was associate counsel with Lang Michener LLP. Mr. Nesmith has served on the boards of, among others, Polymer Group, Inc., Broadpoint Securities, Inc. and Westport Innovations, where he was also a senior officer of the Company. He also served as the Executive Director (then Superintendent of Brokers) for the British Columbia Securities Commission.
The Board also includes Randy Smallwood, the current President & CEO.
APPENDIX 6: SILVER OUTLOOK As a precious metal used in a range of industrial applications, the silver price is influenced by many of the same forces that drive both gold and base metal prices. We believe current market conditions are supportive of silver’s fundamental demand drivers for the following reasons:
• the main macro-economic factors that have made precious metals an attractive investment class remain in place,
• global economy has been showing modest incremental signs of improvement, suggesting increasing industrial demand for silver, and
• the supply outlook for silver appears to be over-estimated as silver by-product producing mines (major source of global supply) have been impacted by significant development delays due to industry bottlenecks and capital cost escalation
Traditional Precious Metal Attributes May Provide Some Headwinds with Improving Economy
Silver’s price performance has historically correlated well with movements in the price of gold as silver also benefits from precious metal qualities storing value in periods of economic uncertainty. Its past relationship with gold is a product of well-known macroeconomic factors that have made a strong investment case for precious metals in recent years, namely precious metals have:
• acted as a competing currency in periods of negative real interest rates,
• protected value in periods of rising money supply (which has been the case in recent years given the backdrop of central government’s monetary easing policies), and
• benefitted, like all storable commodities, as a hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar and inflation.
Examining data over the past decade, we see the ratio of gold:silver has averaged approximately 59.6:1 since 2000, having receded back towards this long-term average after silver significantly outperformed gold into the spring of 2011. We also highlight one standard deviation from the 10-year average, which appears to provide a level of support/resistance for silver prices relative to gold (suggesting a range bound ratio of 50:1 to 68:1 (current = 62.3:1)).
GOLD/SILVER RATIO SINCE 2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jun-
01
Dec
-01
Jun-
02
Dec
-02
Jun-
03
Dec
-03
Jun-
04
Dec
-04
Jun-
05
Dec
-05
Jun-
06
Dec
-06
Jun-
07
Dec
-07
Jun-
08
Dec
-08
Jun-
09
Dec
-09
Jun-
10
Dec
-10
Jun-
11
Dec
-11
Jun-
12
Dec
-12
Sp
ot
Go
ld P
rice
/Sp
ot
Sil
ver
Pri
ce
Au/Ag Average + 1σ -1σ
Source: Bloomberg / NBF
Below, we highlight the linear regression between silver and gold over the past decade showing that price movements are highly correlated (R2 = 0.93).
REGRESSION OF GOLD/SILVER SINCE 2000
y = 46.209x + 131.6R2 = 0.9346
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50
Silver Price, US$/oz
Gol
d P
rice,
US
$/oz
Au & Ag Linear Regression 2000 to Present
Source: Bloomberg / NBF
1 – Similar to gold, silver has a low opportunity cost and benefits during periods of negative real interest rates, acting as a competing/alternative currency.
2 – Silver offers protection against currency devaluation as growth in global money supply continues at unprecedented levels. The potential negative implication is that an improving global economy may result in a declining money supply (as global stimulus packages come to an end) and real interest rates move into positive territory.
SILVER PRICE COMPARED WITH GROWTH IN GLOBAL MONEY SUPPLY
Despite having precious metal qualities, silver’s industrial applications are expected to provide more price support as the global economy improves
Silver is an excellent conductor of electricity/heat and is malleable yet strong, making it useful in a variety of industrial applications. Since silver is a minor component in several commercially available products, its cost is not typically significant in the overall production cycle, making the industrial demand for silver relatively inelastic with little available in the way of substitutes.
The main components of industrial demand are summarized below, with electrical applications, brazing alloys and solders accounting for the most significant component of industrial demand.
SILVER DEMAND
Coin & Metal
Electronical & Electronics
Industrial
Jewlery
PhotographicSilverware
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
met
ric
ton
nes
, 000
Source: Bloomberg / NBF
Beyond traditional uses, the conductive and non-toxic properties of silver make it an ideal ingredient in new and emerging technologies, including solar panels, water purification, impregnated gloves for using touch screen tablet devices in cold weather and antimicrobacterial uses to prevent/limit bacterial growth in textile products.
Of the base metals with industrial applications, copper exhibits the best correlation with silver (R2 = 0.72) and is exhibited below.
Similarly, manufacturing output influences silver price performance, as sharp declines in silver prices have often been associated with contractions in Global PMI - as highlighted below.
SILVER PRICE COMPARED WITH GLOBAL PMI (SINCE 2005)
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan-
10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan-
11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sil
ver,
US
$/o
z
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Glo
bal
PM
I
Silver, US$/oz Global PMI
Source: Bloomberg / NBF
Growing mine supply could provide modest headwinds – Impact Likely Overstated
Mine production and scrap supply have grown steadily over the past decade. The scrap component of the market is currently around 25% of supply; however, it continues to grow which could put further pressure on supply/demand fundamentals.
A large component of mine supply (which constitutes three-quarters of global silver supply annually) comes from silver by-product production from either of gold/base metal operations, with primary silver mines only representing <25% of mine supply. The negative implications of coming from by-product production is the silver price is not the primary driver of the mine’s economics and therefore sees little in the way of curtailment in periods of depressed silver prices..
BREAKDOWN OF SILVER MINE SUPPLY (MOST COMING FROM BY-PRODUCT PRODUCTION)
Source: Company Reports
As we’ve discussed previously in our thematics on “Industry Bottlenecks and Mining Costs”, industry congestion has led to a delay in development of several large base-metal operations with significant gold/silver by-products. This fact, combined with currently depressed gold/copper prices, will likely lead to the deferral of additional projects that may have significant silver by-product production. At first glance, the development pipeline of base metal projects with silver by-products appears robust over the next five years; however, this assumes the respective often cash-strapped operators maintain development timelines in the context of lower base metal prices, industry bottlenecks and shareholder demand for capital constraints.
ETFs have also reduced total available silver supply in recent years, with assets under management steadily increasing since early 2006.
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