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SIDARTHa SIDARTHa SIDARTHa SIDARTHa European Emergency Data European Emergency Data European Emergency Data European Emergency Data-based Syndromic Surveillance System based Syndromic Surveillance System based Syndromic Surveillance System based Syndromic Surveillance System Grant Agreement No. 2007208 Grant Agreement No. 2007208 Grant Agreement No. 2007208 Grant Agreement No. 2007208 Appendix Appendix Appendix Appendix Developing Algorithms for Developing Algorithms for Developing Algorithms for Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Early Public Health Threat Early Public Health Threat Early Public Health Threat Det Det Det Detection ection ection ection in Europe in Europe in Europe in Europe Re Re Re Results from the SIDARTHa project sults from the SIDARTHa project sults from the SIDARTHa project sults from the SIDARTHa project Draft report (January 2010) Draft report (January 2010) Draft report (January 2010) Draft report (January 2010)
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SIDARTHa WP 6 report 1 Appendix detection methodology · SIDARTHaSIDARTHa European Emergency DataEuropean Emergency Data- ---based Syndromic Surveillance Systembased Syndromic Surveillance

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Page 1: SIDARTHa WP 6 report 1 Appendix detection methodology · SIDARTHaSIDARTHa European Emergency DataEuropean Emergency Data- ---based Syndromic Surveillance Systembased Syndromic Surveillance

SIDARTHaSIDARTHaSIDARTHaSIDARTHa

European Emergency DataEuropean Emergency DataEuropean Emergency DataEuropean Emergency Data----based Syndromic Surveillance Systembased Syndromic Surveillance Systembased Syndromic Surveillance Systembased Syndromic Surveillance System

Grant Agreement No. 2007208Grant Agreement No. 2007208Grant Agreement No. 2007208Grant Agreement No. 2007208

AppendixAppendixAppendixAppendix

Developing Algorithms forDeveloping Algorithms forDeveloping Algorithms forDeveloping Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Early Public Health Threat Early Public Health Threat Early Public Health Threat

DetDetDetDetectionectionectionection in Europein Europein Europein Europe ReReReResults from the SIDARTHa projectsults from the SIDARTHa projectsults from the SIDARTHa projectsults from the SIDARTHa project Draft report (January 2010)Draft report (January 2010)Draft report (January 2010)Draft report (January 2010)

Page 2: SIDARTHa WP 6 report 1 Appendix detection methodology · SIDARTHaSIDARTHa European Emergency DataEuropean Emergency Data- ---based Syndromic Surveillance Systembased Syndromic Surveillance

APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 2

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

TablesTablesTablesTables

TTTTABLE ABLE ABLE ABLE 1111 QQQQUANTITY AND QUALITY UANTITY AND QUALITY UANTITY AND QUALITY UANTITY AND QUALITY ANALYSIS OF ANALYSIS OF ANALYSIS OF ANALYSIS OF EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) AND OVERVIEW ON ADDEAND OVERVIEW ON ADDEAND OVERVIEW ON ADDEAND OVERVIEW ON ADDED OR RECODED VARIABLD OR RECODED VARIABLD OR RECODED VARIABLD OR RECODED VARIABLESESESES.... ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 4444

TTTTABLE ABLE ABLE ABLE 2222 SSSSELECTION OF RELEVANTELECTION OF RELEVANTELECTION OF RELEVANTELECTION OF RELEVANT EVENTS IN EVENTS IN EVENTS IN EVENTS IN EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 5555

TTTTABLE ABLE ABLE ABLE 3333 AAAA QQQQUANTITY AND QUALITY UANTITY AND QUALITY UANTITY AND QUALITY UANTITY AND QUALITY ANALYSIS OF ANALYSIS OF ANALYSIS OF ANALYSIS OF EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6666

TTTTABLE ABLE ABLE ABLE 3333 BBBB AAAADDED OR RECODED VARIDDED OR RECODED VARIDDED OR RECODED VARIDDED OR RECODED VARIABLES IN THE ABLES IN THE ABLES IN THE ABLES IN THE EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) DATA SETDATA SETDATA SETDATA SET .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7777

TTTTABLE ABLE ABLE ABLE 4444 AAAA QQQQUANTITY AND QUALITY UANTITY AND QUALITY UANTITY AND QUALITY UANTITY AND QUALITY ANALYSIS OF ANALYSIS OF ANALYSIS OF ANALYSIS OF EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE) ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 9999

TTTTABLE ABLE ABLE ABLE 4444 BBBB AAAADDED OR RECODED VARIDDED OR RECODED VARIDDED OR RECODED VARIDDED OR RECODED VARIABLES OF ABLES OF ABLES OF ABLES OF EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 10101010

TTTTABLE ABLE ABLE ABLE 5555 VVVVALUES OF ALUES OF ALUES OF ALUES OF EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE) SPECIFIC VARIABLES ASPECIFIC VARIABLES ASPECIFIC VARIABLES ASPECIFIC VARIABLES AND THEIR USE FOR SYNND THEIR USE FOR SYNND THEIR USE FOR SYNND THEIR USE FOR SYNDROME GENERATIONDROME GENERATIONDROME GENERATIONDROME GENERATION ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 12121212

TTTTABLE ABLE ABLE ABLE 6666 SSSSIGNALS IGNALS IGNALS IGNALS C1,C1,C1,C1, C2,C2,C2,C2, C3C3C3C3 BETWEEN BETWEEN BETWEEN BETWEEN 2003200320032003 AND AND AND AND 2008200820082008 IN IN IN IN EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 13131313

TTTTABLE ABLE ABLE ABLE 7777 SSSSIGNALS IGNALS IGNALS IGNALS C1,C1,C1,C1, C2,C2,C2,C2, C3C3C3C3 BETWEEN BETWEEN BETWEEN BETWEEN JJJJULY ULY ULY ULY 2005200520052005 AND AND AND AND 2008200820082008 ININININEP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE) ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 15151515

Page 3: SIDARTHa WP 6 report 1 Appendix detection methodology · SIDARTHaSIDARTHa European Emergency DataEuropean Emergency Data- ---based Syndromic Surveillance Systembased Syndromic Surveillance

APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 3

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

FiguresFiguresFiguresFigures

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 1111 NNNNUMBER OF HOSPITAL ADUMBER OF HOSPITAL ADUMBER OF HOSPITAL ADUMBER OF HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS IN MISSIONS IN MISSIONS IN MISSIONS IN ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT) PER MONTH IN PER MONTH IN PER MONTH IN PER MONTH IN 2008200820082008 (1(1(1(1 ==== JJJJANUARYANUARYANUARYANUARY,,,, 12121212 ==== DDDDECEMBERECEMBERECEMBERECEMBER)))) .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16161616

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 2222 NNNNUMBER OF HOSPITAL ADUMBER OF HOSPITAL ADUMBER OF HOSPITAL ADUMBER OF HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS IN MISSIONS IN MISSIONS IN MISSIONS IN ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT) PER WEEK IN PER WEEK IN PER WEEK IN PER WEEK IN 2008200820082008 ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 16161616

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 3333 AAAAVERAGE OF NUMBER OF VERAGE OF NUMBER OF VERAGE OF NUMBER OF VERAGE OF NUMBER OF HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS IN IN IN IN ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT) PER DAY OF THE WEEK PER DAY OF THE WEEK PER DAY OF THE WEEK PER DAY OF THE WEEK IN IN IN IN 2008200820082008 ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 17171717

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 4444 HHHHOSPITAL ADMISSIONS IOSPITAL ADMISSIONS IOSPITAL ADMISSIONS IOSPITAL ADMISSIONS IN N N N ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT) PER GENDER AND MONTHPER GENDER AND MONTHPER GENDER AND MONTHPER GENDER AND MONTH IN IN IN IN 2008200820082008 ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 17171717

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 5555 MMMMEAN AGE OF ADMITTED EAN AGE OF ADMITTED EAN AGE OF ADMITTED EAN AGE OF ADMITTED PATIENTS IN PATIENTS IN PATIENTS IN PATIENTS IN ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT) PER WEEK IN PER WEEK IN PER WEEK IN PER WEEK IN 2008200820082008 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 18181818

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 6666 AAAAMOUNT OF HOSPITAL ADMOUNT OF HOSPITAL ADMOUNT OF HOSPITAL ADMOUNT OF HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS IN MISSIONS IN MISSIONS IN MISSIONS IN ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT) PER WEEK AND AGE CATPER WEEK AND AGE CATPER WEEK AND AGE CATPER WEEK AND AGE CATEGORY IN EGORY IN EGORY IN EGORY IN 2008200820082008 ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 18181818

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 7777 AAAA NNNNUMBER OF ALL DISPATCUMBER OF ALL DISPATCUMBER OF ALL DISPATCUMBER OF ALL DISPATCH EVENTS IN H EVENTS IN H EVENTS IN H EVENTS IN EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) FROM FROM FROM FROM 2003200320032003 TO TO TO TO 2008200820082008 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 19191919

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 7777 BBBB NNNNUMBER OF RELEVANT DIUMBER OF RELEVANT DIUMBER OF RELEVANT DIUMBER OF RELEVANT DISPATCH EVENTS IN SPATCH EVENTS IN SPATCH EVENTS IN SPATCH EVENTS IN EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) FROM FROM FROM FROM 2003200320032003 TO TO TO TO 2008200820082008............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 19191919

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 8888 AAAA NNNNUMBER OF ALL DISPATCUMBER OF ALL DISPATCUMBER OF ALL DISPATCUMBER OF ALL DISPATCH EVENTS IN H EVENTS IN H EVENTS IN H EVENTS IN EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) FROM FROM FROM FROM 2003200320032003 TO TO TO TO 2008200820082008 PER MONTHPER MONTHPER MONTHPER MONTH ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 20202020

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 8888 BBBB NNNNUMBER OF RELEVANT DIUMBER OF RELEVANT DIUMBER OF RELEVANT DIUMBER OF RELEVANT DISPATCH EVENTS IN SPATCH EVENTS IN SPATCH EVENTS IN SPATCH EVENTS IN EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) FROM FROM FROM FROM 2003200320032003 TO TO TO TO 2008200820082008 PER MONTHPER MONTHPER MONTHPER MONTH ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 22220000

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 9999 AAAA AAAAVERAGE NUMBER OF ALLVERAGE NUMBER OF ALLVERAGE NUMBER OF ALLVERAGE NUMBER OF ALL DAILY DISPATCH EVENTDAILY DISPATCH EVENTDAILY DISPATCH EVENTDAILY DISPATCH EVENTS IN S IN S IN S IN EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) FOR THE PERIOD FOR THE PERIOD FOR THE PERIOD FOR THE PERIOD 2003200320032003 TO TO TO TO 2008200820082008 .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21212121

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 9999 BBBB AAAAVERAGE NUMBER OF ALLVERAGE NUMBER OF ALLVERAGE NUMBER OF ALLVERAGE NUMBER OF ALL DAILY DISPATCH EVENTDAILY DISPATCH EVENTDAILY DISPATCH EVENTDAILY DISPATCH EVENTS IN S IN S IN S IN EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) FOR THE PERIOD FOR THE PERIOD FOR THE PERIOD FOR THE PERIOD 2003200320032003 TO TO TO TO 2008200820082008 .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22221111

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 10101010 NNNNUMBER OF UMBER OF UMBER OF UMBER OF EPEPEPEP CASES IN CASES IN CASES IN CASES IN EP(DE),EP(DE),EP(DE),EP(DE), 01/07200501/07200501/07200501/072005 TO TO TO TO 31/12/200831/12/200831/12/200831/12/2008 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 22222222

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 11111111 NNNNUMBER OF UMBER OF UMBER OF UMBER OF EPEPEPEP CASES IN CASES IN CASES IN CASES IN EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE) PER MONTHPER MONTHPER MONTHPER MONTH,,,, 01/07200501/07200501/07200501/072005 TO TO TO TO 31/12/200831/12/200831/12/200831/12/2008 (1=J(1=J(1=J(1=JANUARYANUARYANUARYANUARY,,,, 12=D12=D12=D12=DECEMBERECEMBERECEMBERECEMBER)))) ................................................................................................................................................ 22222222

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 12121212 NNNNUMBER OF UMBER OF UMBER OF UMBER OF EPEPEPEP CASES IN CASES IN CASES IN CASES IN EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE) PER WEEKPER WEEKPER WEEKPER WEEK,,,, 01/07200501/07200501/07200501/072005 TO TO TO TO 31/12/200831/12/200831/12/200831/12/2008 .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23232323

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 13131313 NNNNUMBER OF MALE AND FEUMBER OF MALE AND FEUMBER OF MALE AND FEUMBER OF MALE AND FEMALE MALE MALE MALE EPEPEPEP CASES IN CASES IN CASES IN CASES IN EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE) 01/072001/072001/072001/072005050505 TO TO TO TO 31/12/200831/12/200831/12/200831/12/2008 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 23232323

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 14141414 MMMMEAN AGE OF EAN AGE OF EAN AGE OF EAN AGE OF EPEPEPEP CASES IN CASES IN CASES IN CASES IN EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE) PER WEEKPER WEEKPER WEEKPER WEEK,,,, 01/07200501/07200501/07200501/072005 TO TO TO TO 31/12/200831/12/200831/12/200831/12/2008 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 24242424

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 15151515 EPEPEPEP CASES IN CASES IN CASES IN CASES IN EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE) PER WEEK AND AGE CATPER WEEK AND AGE CATPER WEEK AND AGE CATPER WEEK AND AGE CATEGORY IN EGORY IN EGORY IN EGORY IN 2006,2006,2006,2006, 2007200720072007 AND AND AND AND 2008200820082008 ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 25252525

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 16161616 C1,C1,C1,C1, C2,C2,C2,C2, C3C3C3C3 SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT) ADMISSIONS IN ADMISSIONS IN ADMISSIONS IN ADMISSIONS IN 2008200820082008 ((((UNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINEEEE)))) ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 26262626

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 17171717 C1,C1,C1,C1, C2,C2,C2,C2, C3C3C3C3 SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) IN IN IN IN 2003200320032003 ((((UNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINEEEE)))) ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 27272727

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 18181818 C1,C1,C1,C1, C2,C2,C2,C2, C3C3C3C3 SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) IN IN IN IN 2004200420042004 ((((UNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINEEEE)))) ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 27272727

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 19191919 C1,C1,C1,C1, C2,C2,C2,C2, C3C3C3C3 SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) IN IN IN IN 2005200520052005 ((((UNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINEEEE)))) ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 28282828

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 20202020 C1,C1,C1,C1, C2,C2,C2,C2, C3C3C3C3 SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN TTTTYROL DISPATCH DATA IYROL DISPATCH DATA IYROL DISPATCH DATA IYROL DISPATCH DATA IN N N N 2006200620062006 ((((UNSTRATIFIED BASELIUNSTRATIFIED BASELIUNSTRATIFIED BASELIUNSTRATIFIED BASELINENENENE)))) .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28282828

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 21212121 C1,C1,C1,C1, C2,C2,C2,C2, C3C3C3C3 SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) IN IN IN IN 2007200720072007 ((((UNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINEEEE)))) ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 29292929

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 22222222 C1,C1,C1,C1, C2,C2,C2,C2, C3C3C3C3 SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) IN IN IN IN 2222008008008008 ((((UNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINEEEE)))) ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 29292929

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 23232323 OOOOCCURRENCE OF SIGNALSCCURRENCE OF SIGNALSCCURRENCE OF SIGNALSCCURRENCE OF SIGNALS OF THE OF THE OF THE OF THE C1,C1,C1,C1, C2,C2,C2,C2, C3C3C3C3 ALGORITHM IN ALGORITHM IN ALGORITHM IN ALGORITHM IN EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) ((((RELEVANT CASESRELEVANT CASESRELEVANT CASESRELEVANT CASES)))) IN IN IN IN 2003200320032003 TO TO TO TO 2008200820082008 ................................................................................................................................................................ 32323232

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 24242424 C1,C1,C1,C1, C2,C2,C2,C2, C3C3C3C3 SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN ED(DE)ED(DE)ED(DE)ED(DE) IN IN IN IN 2005200520052005 ((((FROM FROM FROM FROM JJJJULYULYULYULY)))) ((((UNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINEEEE)))) ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 33333333

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 25252525 C1,C1,C1,C1, C2,C2,C2,C2, C3C3C3C3 SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN ED(DE)ED(DE)ED(DE)ED(DE) IN IN IN IN 2006200620062006 ((((UNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINEEEE)))) ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 33333333

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 26262626 C1,C1,C1,C1, C2,C2,C2,C2, C3C3C3C3 SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN SIGNALS IN ED(DE)ED(DE)ED(DE)ED(DE) IN IN IN IN 2007200720072007 ((((UNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINUNSTRATIFIED BASELINEEEE)))) ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 34343434

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 27272727 C1,C1,C1,C1, C2,C2,C2,C2, C3C3C3C3 SIGNALS ON SIGNALS ON SIGNALS ON SIGNALS ON GGGGOEPPINGEN DATA IN OEPPINGEN DATA IN OEPPINGEN DATA IN OEPPINGEN DATA IN 2008200820082008 ((((UNSTRATIFIED UNSTRATIFIED UNSTRATIFIED UNSTRATIFIED BASELINEBASELINEBASELINEBASELINE)))) .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34343434

FFFFIGURE IGURE IGURE IGURE 28282828 OOOOCCURRENCE OF SIGNALSCCURRENCE OF SIGNALSCCURRENCE OF SIGNALSCCURRENCE OF SIGNALS OF THE OF THE OF THE OF THE C1,C1,C1,C1, C2,C2,C2,C2, C3C3C3C3 ALGORITHM IN ALGORITHM IN ALGORITHM IN ALGORITHM IN ED(DE)ED(DE)ED(DE)ED(DE) IN IN IN IN 2005200520052005----2008200820082008 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 36363636

Page 4: SIDARTHa WP 6 report 1 Appendix detection methodology · SIDARTHaSIDARTHa European Emergency DataEuropean Emergency Data- ---based Syndromic Surveillance Systembased Syndromic Surveillance

APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 4

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Name of variable Description of variable Scales of measurement Valid

fields

Missing fields Total

lines

ID ID of case Interval 30669 0 30669

Date Date of event Date, scale 30669 0 30669

Time Time (24hrs decimals) Text (Categorical), nominal 30669 0 30669

Sex Sex of patient Text (Categorical), nominal 30669 0 30669

Age Age of patient Interval 30669 0 30669

Residence Residence of patient (in ZIPcode, city and country) Free text 30669 0 30669

Added or recoded variables

Month Month of event Interval 30669 0 30669

Weeks Week of the year Interval 30669 0 30669

Wday Day of the week (Monday, Tuesday, …) Ordinal 30669 0 30669

Sex Sex of patient Nominal 30669 0 30669

ZIPcodes ZIPcode of patient Ordinal 30669 0 30669

ZIPcategory Region of patient (categorised by ZIPcode) Ordinal 30669 0 30669

Abstracted from files: EARS_TYROLhospital.xls and TYROL_hospital_18112009.sav

Table Table Table Table 1111 Quantity and quality analysis of EMD(AT) and overview on added or recoded variables. Quantity and quality analysis of EMD(AT) and overview on added or recoded variables. Quantity and quality analysis of EMD(AT) and overview on added or recoded variables. Quantity and quality analysis of EMD(AT) and overview on added or recoded variables.

Grey rows indicate the currently used variables

Page 5: SIDARTHa WP 6 report 1 Appendix detection methodology · SIDARTHaSIDARTHa European Emergency DataEuropean Emergency Data- ---based Syndromic Surveillance Systembased Syndromic Surveillance

APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 5

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

uebergeord_

Einsatzstichw

ort

Meaning/

Inclusion Y/N

Rule AMPDS_

HBS

AMPDS_D

ispositions

stufe

AMPDS_S

ubcode

Einsatzcode (total code made up from the other variables)

ALP- alpine/Y EXCEPT 45

46

47

48

99

codes techncal description of rescue actions in mountains

codes for example number of persons buried by an avalanche

codes accidents with aircrafts

codes accidents of lifts

codes service activities

AMB- EMS stand-by for events like concerts and festivals/N

ANM- Non-tyrolean EMS brings pt to Tyrolean hospital/N

BEI- EMS stand-by for other incidents, not in use/N

BR- Bergrettung/Mountain Rescue Service/N

DF- Dienstfahrt (service drive)/N

FW- fire department/Y (see restrictions) ONLY 52

66

66

O

C

C

2

1

2

FW-52O2 (Gefahrenmeldenalage, medical alert)

FW-66C1 (Odor strange/unknown, inside, with patients)

FW-66C2 (Odor strange/unknown, outside, with patients)

FZG- technical coding, not in use/N

HNR- in-house emergency call/Y all all all all all

KT- transportation/Y (see restrictions) ONLY 90

91

KT-91… (ambulance)

LS- technical coding, not in use/N

NEF- technical coding, not in use/N

OST- technical coding, not in use/N

PR- technical coding, not in use/N

RD- Emergency Medical Service/Y EXCEPT 45

46

47

48

99

codes techncal description of rescue actions in mountains

codes for example number of persons buried by an avalanche

codes accidents with aircrafts

codes accidents of lifts

codes service activities

SON- Test alarm/N

V- transportation passed on to other EMS/N

Purpose of historical

data analysis

Variables

Unspecific syndrome

(general emergency

medical demand)

Table Table Table Table 2222 Selection of relevant events in EMD(AT)Selection of relevant events in EMD(AT)Selection of relevant events in EMD(AT)Selection of relevant events in EMD(AT)

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 6

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Name of variable Description of variable Scales of measurement Valid

fields

Missing

fields

Illogical

fields

Total

lines

ID ID of case Interval 937604 0 0 937604

Datum_ZP_alarm Date Date 937604 0 0 937604

MAIN-event nr Main event number Interval 937604 0 0 937604

Event nr event number Interval 937604 0 0 937604

Ressourcentyp Which ressource/vehicle was sent Text (Categorical) 937604 0 0 937604

Funkruf Individual Name of Vehicle (radio call name) Text (Categorical) 937604 0 0 937604

Ressourcentyp_Verwendung Which ressource/vehicle was sent (same as Ressourcentyp) Text (Categorical) 937579 25 0 937604

Wache Post where the Vehicle is stationed Text (Categorical) 929833 7760 11 937604

übergeord_Einsatzstichwort Part of "Einsatzcode" (Event type) Text (Categorical) 937525 79 0 937604

Einsatzcode Event Code (complete AMPDS Code) Text (Categorical) 937537 66 1 937604

AMPDS_Code Part of "Einsatzcode" Text (Categorical) 933546 2414 1644 937604

AMPDS_HBS Part of "Einsatzcode" (Main Complaint) Text (Categorical) 933540 2414 1650 937604

AMPDS_Dispositionsstufe Part of "Einsatzcode" (Severity) Text (Categorical) 935157 2436 11* 937604

AMPDS_Subcode Part of "Einsatzcode" Text (Categorical) 934065 3520 19* 937604

ZP_Alarm Date and time of alarm Date and Time 937604 0 0 937604

EO_Staat Country Text (Categorical) 937492 112 0 937604

EO_Bundesland Region/State Free text 935628 1976 0 937604

EO_PLZ ZIP code Ordinal 733443 203720 441 937604

EO_Ort City Free text 935648 1956 0 937604

EO_Straße1 Street Free text 920594 16732 278 937604

EO_HNr House number Interval 858621 78977 6 937604

EO_Adressobjekt Object of identification on location Free text 623757 52970 260877 937604

EO_Xkoordinate X coordinates Interval 937604 0 0 937604

EO_Ykoordinate Y coordinates Interval 937604 0 0 937604

NACA NACA Score = severity Ordinal 66148 871455 1 937604

Abstracted from files: Tyrol_Dispatch_data.xls and Tyrol Dispatch 1-12-2009.sav

Table Table Table Table 3333 A Quantity and quality analysis of EMD(AT)A Quantity and quality analysis of EMD(AT)A Quantity and quality analysis of EMD(AT)A Quantity and quality analysis of EMD(AT)

Grey rows indicate the currently used variables

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 7

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Name of

added/recoded

variable

Description of variable Scales of

measurement

Valid fields Missing fields Illogical fields Total lines

Wday Day of the week (Monday, Tuesday, …) Ordinal 937604 0 0 937604

Yweek Week of the year Numeric 937604 0 0 937604

Ymonth Month of the year Interval 937604 0 0 937604

Filter Filter variable to extract relevant events out of the data set (based on the selection criteria

described in table 2)

Nominal

Table 3 B Added or recoded variables in the EMD(AT) data setTable 3 B Added or recoded variables in the EMD(AT) data setTable 3 B Added or recoded variables in the EMD(AT) data setTable 3 B Added or recoded variables in the EMD(AT) data set

Grey rows indicate the currently used variables

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 8

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Name of variable Description of variable Scales of

measurement

Valid

fields

Missing fields Illogical fields Total lines

ID ID of case Interval 14869 0 0 14869

VERSION Version of information technology used Interval 14869 0 0 14869

GKZ community code of the event Ordinal 14797 0 72 14869

PLZ zip code of the event Ordinal 5 0 14864 14869

EINSAORT place of the event, e.g., home, work place Nominal 14543 0 326 14869

RD_EINS kind of response = severity code (highest priority, non highest priority response) Nominal 14869 0 0 14869

RETTMITT kind of response resource/vehicle = severity code (highest priority, non highest priority

response)

Nominal 4068 0 10801 14869

DATUM date Date 14869 0 0 14869

Tag Day Interval 14869 0 0 14869

Monat Month Interval 14869 0 0 14869

Jahr Year Interval 14869 0 0 14869

ZALARM Time of alarm (alarming the ambulance) Time 12674 0 2195 14869

ZABFST Time of sending an ambulance (start driving) Time 12689 0 2180 14869

ZANKE_NA Time of arrival at scene (ambulance crew) time 3 14866 0 14869

ZANKE_RD Time of arrival at scene (emergency physician) Time 12696 0 2173 14869

ZTRAB Time of leaving with patient Time 10100 0 4769 14869

ZUEBG Time of transferral to hospital Time 12744 0 2125 14869

RLSTINDK dispatch code Nominal 2172 0 12697 14869

GEBDAT date of birth patient Date 13922 0 947 14869

PATALTER age patient year/month 13916 0 953 14869

GESCHL sex patient Nominal 14087 0 782 14869

GCS1 Glasgow Coma Scale = severity code Nominal 14032 0 837 14869

AF1 First Respiratory Status Interval 12004 0 2865

14869

SAOZ1 First status pulse oximetry, oxygen saturation Interval 11734 0 3135

14869

SCHMERZ1 Pain Interval 12870 0 1999

14869

MEES1 Mainz Emergency Evaluation Score 1 = severity code Nominal 3691 0 11178

14869

ATM1 First Breathing status Nominal 13024 0 1845 14869

KRANK1 Cerebrovascular diseases Nominal 982 0 13887 14869

KRANK2 Cardiovascular diseases Nominal 1994 0 12875 14869

KRANK3 Breathing Problems (ILI and respiratory diseases) Nominal 639 0 14230 14869

KRANK4 Abdominal Pain (Gastrointestinal) Nominal 576 0 14293 14869

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 9

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Name of variable Description of variable Scales of

measurement

Valid

fields

Missing fields Illogical fields Total lines

KRANK5 Psychiatric diseases Nominal 228 0 14641 14869

KRANK6 Metabolic diseases Nominal 530 0 14339 14869

KRANK7 gynecologic events Nominal 107 0 14762 14869

KRANK8 other diseases Nominal 164 0 14705 14869

ICD1 International Classification of Disease codes main diagnosis (ICD 10) Nominal 10431 4438 0 14869

ICD2 International Classification of Disease codes 1st secondary diagnosis (ICD 10) Nominal 4273 10596 0 14869

ICD3 International Classification of Disease codes 2nd secondary diagnosis (ICD 10) Nominal 1200 13669 0 14869

ZIELKLDI main diagnosis hospital (ICD10 code) Nominal 0 14869 0 14869

NACA NACA Score = severity code Nominal 13400 0 1469 14869

KTEMP First status: body core temperature Interval 0 0 14869

14869

GCS2 Glasgow Coma Scale = severity code (transferral) Nominal 13303 0 1566 14869

MEES2 Mainz Emergency Evaluation Score 2 = severity code (transferral) Nominal 3676 0 11193

14869

Abstracted from files: EARS_on_goppingen1.xls and Goppingen Data.sav

Table Table Table Table 4444 A Quantity and quality analysis of EP(DE)A Quantity and quality analysis of EP(DE)A Quantity and quality analysis of EP(DE)A Quantity and quality analysis of EP(DE)

Grey rows indicate the currently used variables

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© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Name of

added/recoded

variable

Description of variable Scales of

measurement

Valid fields Missing fields Illogical fields Total lines

Age Age in years calculated from the difference between DATUM and GEBDAT Interval 13922 947 0 14869

Sex Sex Nominal 14087 782 0 14869

Wday Day of the week (Monday, Tuesday, …) Ordinal 14869 0 0 14869

Yweek Week of the year Numeric 14869 0 0 14869

ATM_1 First Breathing status Nominal 13034 1835 0 14869

KRANK_1 Cerebrovascular diseases Nominal 14869 0 0 14869

KRANK_2 Cardiovascular diseases Nominal 14869 0 0 14869

KRANK_3 Breathing Problems (ILI and respiratory diseases) Nominal 14869 0 0 14869

KRANK_4 Abdominal Pain (Gastrointestinal) Nominal 14869 0 0 14869

KRANK_5 Psychiatric diseases Nominal 14869 0 0 14869

KRANK_6 Metabolic diseases Nominal 14869 0 0 14869

KRANK_7 gynecologic events Nominal 14869 0 0 14869

KRANK_8 other diseases Nominal 14869 0 0 14869

Table 4 B Added or recoded variableTable 4 B Added or recoded variableTable 4 B Added or recoded variableTable 4 B Added or recoded variables of EP(DE)s of EP(DE)s of EP(DE)s of EP(DE)

Grey rows indicate the currently used variables

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 11

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Variable Description

First status 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

ATM1 Breathing normal dyspnoea cyanosis spastic rales stridor Airway

obstruction

gasping apnoea mechanical

ventilation

EKG1 ECG findings sinus rhythm absolute

arrhythmia

AV block II AB-block

III

narrow QRS

tachycardia

wide QRS

tachycardia

VES monotop VES

polytop

ventricular

fibrillation

pulseless

electrical

activity

Asystole pace-

maker

rhythm

infarct

ECG

value - intervall

scale

GCS1 Glasgow Coma Scale 3 to 15

RRSYS1 systolic blood

pressure

0 to 300 mm Hg

HF1 heart rate 0 to 300 bpm

AF1 respiratory rate 0 to 50 breath

per minute

SAOZ1 pulse oximetry

oxygen saturation

0 to 100 %

SCHMERZ1 VAS pain score 0 to 10 points

KTEMP body core

temperature

0 to 45 ° Celsius

Variable Description

First status ILI R G T E

ATM1 Breathing 2 or 3 or 4

or 5

2 or 3 or 4 or

5

EKG1 ECG findings

GCS1 Glasgow Coma Scale

RRSYS1 systolic blood

pressure

HF1 heart rate

AF1 respiratory rate > 20 breath per

min

SAOZ1 pulse oximetry

oxygen saturation

SpO2 < 95% SpO2 < 95%

SCHMERZ1 VAS pain score VAS > 3

KTEMP body core

temperature

> 38.5 ° C

values

Syndromes

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 12

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Variables Description

First status 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

KRANK1 CNS Disorders TIA / stroke intracranial

bleeding

seizure other CNS

disorder

KRANK2 heart / circulation

disorders

angina pectoris myocardial

infarction

Arrhythmia pulmonary

embolism

Pulmonary

oedema

hypertensive

emergency

orthostasis Syncope cardio-

vascular

arrest

other

cardio-

vascular

disease

PM / ICD

malfunction

KRANK3 airway disorders Asthma COPD

exacerbations

Aspiration Pneumonia /

bronchitis

Hyper-

ventilation

tetany

Croup /

Epiglottises

other

respiratory

disease

KRANK4 abdominal disorders acute abdomen Gastro-

intestinal

Bleeding

Colic other disease

abdomen

KRANK5 psychiatric disorders psychosis /

depression /

mania

increased

emotion

alcohol

intoxication

drug

intoxication

intoxication

medical drugs

withdrawal

alcohol / drugs /

medicine

Suicide

attempt

other

psychiatric

disorder

KRANK6 metabolic disease Hypo- hyper-

glycaemia

Dehydrated other

metabolic

disorder

KRANK7 gynaecological obstetric

emergency

childbirth vaginal bleeding other illness

Gynaecology

KRANK8 other diseases anaphylactic

reaction

hypothermia Drowning SIDS Other

intoxication

Final stage of

malignancy

Variable Description

ILI R G T E

KRANK1 CNS Disorders 3 or 4

KRANK2 heart / circulation

disorders

KRANK3 airway disorders 4 or 7 1 to 7

KRANK4 abdominal disorders 1 or 2 or 3 or 4

KRANK5 psychiatric disorders 3 or 4 or 5

KRANK6 metabolic disease 2

KRANK7 gynaecological obstetric

emergency

KRANK8 other diseases 5

values

Syndromes

Table Table Table Table 5555: : : : Values of EP(DE) specific variables and their use for syndrome generationValues of EP(DE) specific variables and their use for syndrome generationValues of EP(DE) specific variables and their use for syndrome generationValues of EP(DE) specific variables and their use for syndrome generation

ILI= Influenza-Like-Illness, R =Respiratory Syndrome, G=Gastrointestinal Syndrome, T=Intoxication Syndrome, E=Environment-related illness

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© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

SignalsSignalsSignalsSignals

C1C1C1C1 C2C2C2C2 C3C3C3C3

2003200320032003 - 5-8-2003 (Tu) 5-8-2003 (Tu) 6-8-2003 (We) 7-8-2003 (Th)

2004200420042004 3-2-2004 (Tu) 5-2-2004 (Th)

5-2-2004 (Th) 6-2-2004 (Fr) 7-2-2004 (Sa)

2005200520052005 - 23-6-2005 (Th) 23-6-2005 (Th) 24-6-2005 (Fr) 25-6-2005 (Sa)

2006200620062006 15-12-2006 (Fr) 27-12-2006 (We)

28-7-2006 (Fr) 27-12-2006 (We)

28-7-2006 (Fr) 29-7-2006 (Sa) 30-7-2006 (Su) 27-12-2006 (We) 28-12-2006 (Th) 29-12-2006 (Fr)

2007200720072007 14-5-2007 (Mo) 27-12-2007 (Th)

16-7-2007 (We) 17-7-2007 (Th) 27-12-2007 (Th) 28-12-2007 (Fr) 29-12-2007 (Sa)

16-7-2007 (We) 17-7-2007 (Th) 18-7-2007 (Fr) 19-7-2007 (Sa) 27-12-2007 (Th) 28-12-2007 (Fr) 29-12-2007 (Sa) 30-12-2007 (Su) 31-12-2007 (Mo)

2008200820082008 10-3-2008 (Mo) 29-12-2008 (Mo)

29-12-2008 (Mo)

29-12-2008 (Mo) 30-12-2008 (Tu) 31-12-2008 (We)

Table Table Table Table 6666 Signals C1, C2, C3 between 2003 and 2008 in EMD(AT)Signals C1, C2, C3 between 2003 and 2008 in EMD(AT)Signals C1, C2, C3 between 2003 and 2008 in EMD(AT)Signals C1, C2, C3 between 2003 and 2008 in EMD(AT)

(Mo=Monday, Tu=Tuesday, We=Wednesday, Th=Thursday, Fr=Friday, Sa=Saturday, Su=Sunday)

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© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

SignalsSignalsSignalsSignals

C1C1C1C1 C2C2C2C2 C3C3C3C3

2020202005050505 16-7-2005 (Sa) 11-9-2005 (Su) 21-9-2005 (We) 4-10-2005 (Tu)

16-7-2005 (Sa) 21-9-2005 (We) 4-10-2005 (Tu)

16-7-2005 (Sa) 17-7-2005 (Su) 21-9-2005 (We) 22-9-2005 (Th) 23-9-2005 (Fr) 4-10-2005 (Tu) 5-10-2005 (We) 6-10-2005 (We)

2006200620062006 1-1-2006 (Su) 24-1-2006 (Tu) 2-3-2006 (Th) 17-4-2006 (Mo) 11-5-2006 (Th) 9-7-2006 (Su) 2-8-2006 (We) 17-8-2006 (Th) 29-9-2006 (Fr) 18-10-2006 (We) 30-11-2006 (Th) 8-12-2006 (Fr)

1-1-2006 (Su) 24-1-2006 (Tu) 2-3-2006 (Th) 4-3-2006 (Sa) 17-4-2006 (Mo) 2-8-2006 (We) 17-8-2006 (Th) 29-9-2006 (Fr) 30-11-2006 (Th)

1-1-2006 (Su) 2-1-2006 (Mo) 3-1-2006 (Tu) 24-1-2006 (Tu) 25-1-2006 (We) 26-1-2006 (Th) 2-3-2006 (Th) 3-3-2006 (Fr) 4-3-2006 (Sa) 5-3-2006 (Su) 6-3-2006 (Mo) 17-4-2006 (Mo) 18-4-2006 (Tu) 19-4-2006 (We) 2-8-2006 (We) 3-8-2006 (Th) 4-8-2006 (Fr) 17-8-2006 (Th) 18-8-2006 (Fr) 19-8-2006 (Sa) 29-9-2006 (Fr) 30-9-2006 (Sa) 1-10-2006 (Su) 30-11-2006 (Th) 1-12-2006 (Fr) 2-12-2006 (Sa)

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© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

SignalsSignalsSignalsSignals

C1C1C1C1 C2C2C2C2 C3C3C3C3

2007 2007 2007 2007 1-1-2007 (Mo) 2-2-2007 (Fr) 13-3-2007 (Tu) 20-4-2007 (Fr) 31-8-2007 (Fr) 28-9-2007 (Fr) 10-10-2007 (We) 22-11-2007 (Th) 20-12-2007 (Th)

1-1-2007 (Mo) 27-3-2007 (Tu) 20-4-2007 (Fr) 21-4-2007 (Sa) 22-4-2007 (Su) 6-6-2007 (We) 16-6-2007 (Sa) 28-9-2007 (Fr) 11-10-2007 (Th) 23-11-2007 (Fr)

1-1-2007 (Mo) 2-1-2007 (Tu) 3-1-2007 (We) 27-3-2007 (Tu) 28-3-2007 (We) 29-3-2007 (Th) 20-4-2007 (Fr) 21-4-2007 (Sa) 22-4-2007 (Su) 23-4-2007 (Mo) 24-4-2007 (Tu) 6-6-2007 (We) 7-6-2007 (Th) 8-6-2007 (Fr) 16-6-2007 (Sa) 17-6-2007 (Su) 18-6-2007 (Mo) 28-9-2007 (Fr) 29-9-2007 (Sa) 30-9-2007 (Su) 11-10-2007 (Th) 12-10-2007 (Fr) 13-10-2007 (Fr) 23-11-2007 (Fr) 24-11-2007 (Sa) 25-11-2007 (Su)

2008200820082008 1-1-2008 (Tu) 24-5-2008 (Sa) 23-8-2008 (Sa) 21-9-2008 (Su) 3-11-2008 (Mo) 18-11-2008 (Tu) 12-12-2008 (Fr)

1-1-2008 (Tu) 28-3-2008 (Fr) 29-3-2008 (Sa) 24-5-2008 (Sa) 23-8-2008 (Sa) 25-8-2008 (Mo) 21-9-2008 (Su) 18-11-2008 (Tu)

1-1-2008 (Tu) 2-1-2008 (We) 3-1-2008 (Th) 28-3-2008 (Fr) 29-3-2008 (Sa) 30-3-2008 (Su) 31-3-2008 (Mo) 24-5-2008 (Sa) 25-5-2008 (Su) 26-5-2008 (Su) 23-8-2008 (Sa) 24-8-2008 (Su) 25-8-2008 (Mo) 26-8-2008 (Tu) 27-8-2008 (We) 21-9-2008 (Su) 22-9-2008 (Mo) 23-9-2008 (Tu) 18-11-2008 (Tu) 19-11-2008 (We) 20-11-2008 (Th)

Table Table Table Table 7777 Signals C1, C2, C3 between July 2005 and 2008 inSignals C1, C2, C3 between July 2005 and 2008 inSignals C1, C2, C3 between July 2005 and 2008 inSignals C1, C2, C3 between July 2005 and 2008 in EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)

(Mo=Monday, Tu=Tuesday, We=Wednesday, Th=Thursday, Fr=Friday, Sa=Saturday, Su=Sunday)

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© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Descriptive analysis Descriptive analysis Descriptive analysis Descriptive analysis ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT)

Number of hospital admissions per month

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Figure Figure Figure Figure 1111 Number of hoNumber of hoNumber of hoNumber of hospital admissions in spital admissions in spital admissions in spital admissions in ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT) per month in 2008 (1 = January, 12 = December)per month in 2008 (1 = January, 12 = December)per month in 2008 (1 = January, 12 = December)per month in 2008 (1 = January, 12 = December)

(red line shows the average monthly admission, x =2,556)

Number of hospital admissions per week

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Figure Figure Figure Figure 2222 Number of hospital admissions in Number of hospital admissions in Number of hospital admissions in Number of hospital admissions in ED(AT) ED(AT) ED(AT) ED(AT) per week in 2008per week in 2008per week in 2008per week in 2008

(red line shows the average weekly admission, x =579)

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© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Average number of hospital admissions per day of the week

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

Figure Figure Figure Figure 3333 Average of number of hospital admissions in Average of number of hospital admissions in Average of number of hospital admissions in Average of number of hospital admissions in ED(AT) ED(AT) ED(AT) ED(AT) per day of the week in 2008per day of the week in 2008per day of the week in 2008per day of the week in 2008

Hospital admissions per month

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Octobe

r

Nove

mbe

r

Decem

ber

male

female

Figure Figure Figure Figure 4444 Hospital admissions in Hospital admissions in Hospital admissions in Hospital admissions in ED(AT) ED(AT) ED(AT) ED(AT) per geper geper geper gender and month in 2008nder and month in 2008nder and month in 2008nder and month in 2008

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© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Mean age per week - Hospital admissions - 2008

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

weeks

ag

e

Figure Figure Figure Figure 5555 Mean age of admitted patients in Mean age of admitted patients in Mean age of admitted patients in Mean age of admitted patients in ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT) per week in 2008per week in 2008per week in 2008per week in 2008

(red line shows the average weekly admission, x =52.3)

Admitted patients per age group

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

weeks

0-25

26-64

=65

Figure Figure Figure Figure 6666 Amount of hospital admissAmount of hospital admissAmount of hospital admissAmount of hospital admissions in ions in ions in ions in ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT) per week and age category in 2008per week and age category in 2008per week and age category in 2008per week and age category in 2008

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© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Descriptive analysis Descriptive analysis Descriptive analysis Descriptive analysis EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)

Number of all dispatch actions per yeary = 6217,7x + 134506

R2 = 0,9493

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

180.000

200.000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Number of relevant dispatch actions per yeary = 4362,5x + 68227

R2 = 0,9389

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

180.000

200.000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Figure Figure Figure Figure 7777 A A A A ---- Number of all dispatch events in Number of all dispatch events in Number of all dispatch events in Number of all dispatch events in EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) from 2003 to 2008from 2003 to 2008from 2003 to 2008from 2003 to 2008

B B B B –––– Number of relevant dispatch events in Number of relevant dispatch events in Number of relevant dispatch events in Number of relevant dispatch events in EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) from 2003 to 2008from 2003 to 2008from 2003 to 2008from 2003 to 2008

A

B

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© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Number of all dispatch actions per month

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Number of relevant dispatch actions per month

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Figure Figure Figure Figure 8888 A A A A ---- Number of all dispatch events in Number of all dispatch events in Number of all dispatch events in Number of all dispatch events in EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) from 2003 to 2008 per month from 2003 to 2008 per month from 2003 to 2008 per month from 2003 to 2008 per month

B B B B ---- Number of relevant dispatch events in Number of relevant dispatch events in Number of relevant dispatch events in Number of relevant dispatch events in EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) from 2003 to 2008 per month from 2003 to 2008 per month from 2003 to 2008 per month from 2003 to 2008 per month

(1=January, 12=December)

A

B

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© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Average number of all dispatch actions

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

Average amount of relevant dispatch actions

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

Figure Figure Figure Figure 9999 A A A A ---- Average number of all daily dispatch events in Average number of all daily dispatch events in Average number of all daily dispatch events in Average number of all daily dispatch events in EMD(AT) EMD(AT) EMD(AT) EMD(AT) for the period 2003 to 2008for the period 2003 to 2008for the period 2003 to 2008for the period 2003 to 2008

B B B B ---- Average number of all daily dispatch events in Average number of all daily dispatch events in Average number of all daily dispatch events in Average number of all daily dispatch events in EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) for the period 2003 to 2008for the period 2003 to 2008for the period 2003 to 2008for the period 2003 to 2008

A

B

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© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Descriptive analysis Descriptive analysis Descriptive analysis Descriptive analysis EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)

Number of cases per year

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

2005 2006 2007 2008

Figure Figure Figure Figure 10101010 NumNumNumNumber of EP ber of EP ber of EP ber of EP cases in cases in cases in cases in EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE), 01/072005 to 31/12/2008 , 01/072005 to 31/12/2008 , 01/072005 to 31/12/2008 , 01/072005 to 31/12/2008

N umber of EMS cases per mon th

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2005

2006

2007

2008

Figure Figure Figure Figure 11111111 Number of EPNumber of EPNumber of EPNumber of EP cases in cases in cases in cases in EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE) per month, 01/072005 to 31/12/2008 (1=January, 12=December)per month, 01/072005 to 31/12/2008 (1=January, 12=December)per month, 01/072005 to 31/12/2008 (1=January, 12=December)per month, 01/072005 to 31/12/2008 (1=January, 12=December)

(red line shows the average number of cases for the whole period, x =354)

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 23

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Number of EMS cases per week

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52

2005

2006

2007

2008

Figure Figure Figure Figure 12121212 Number of EPNumber of EPNumber of EPNumber of EP cases in cases in cases in cases in EP(DE) EP(DE) EP(DE) EP(DE) per week, 01/072005 to 31/12/2008 per week, 01/072005 to 31/12/2008 per week, 01/072005 to 31/12/2008 per week, 01/072005 to 31/12/2008

(red line shows the average number of cases for the whole period, x =80)

Male and female cases

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

2005 2006 2007 2008

male

female

Figure Figure Figure Figure 13131313 NumbNumbNumbNumber of male and female er of male and female er of male and female er of male and female EP cEP cEP cEP cases in ases in ases in ases in EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE) 01/072005 to 31/12/200801/072005 to 31/12/200801/072005 to 31/12/200801/072005 to 31/12/2008

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 24

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Mean age of cases per week

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52

2005

2006

2007

2008

Figure Figure Figure Figure 14141414 Mean age of EPMean age of EPMean age of EPMean age of EP cases in cases in cases in cases in EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE) per week, 01/072005 to 31/12/2008per week, 01/072005 to 31/12/2008per week, 01/072005 to 31/12/2008per week, 01/072005 to 31/12/2008

(red line shows the overall mean age of cases for the whole period, x =53.8 )

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 25

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

Figure Figure Figure Figure 15151515 EP EP EP EP cases in cases in cases in cases in EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE)EP(DE) per week and age category in 2006, 2007 and 2008per week and age category in 2006, 2007 and 2008per week and age category in 2006, 2007 and 2008per week and age category in 2006, 2007 and 2008

2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

weeks

0-25

26-64

≥65

2007

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

weeks

0-25

26-64 ≥65

2006

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

weeks

0-25

26-64 ≥65

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 26

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

C1, C2, C3 C1, C2, C3 C1, C2, C3 C1, C2, C3 ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT)ED(AT)

EARS Algorithm TIROL Hospital Data (total) per day

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 217 229 241 253 265 277 289 301 313 325 337 349 361

Days in 2008

C1graph

C2graph

C3graph

Figure Figure Figure Figure 16161616 C1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals in n n n ED(AT) ED(AT) ED(AT) ED(AT) admissions in 20admissions in 20admissions in 20admissions in 2008 (unstratified baseline)08 (unstratified baseline)08 (unstratified baseline)08 (unstratified baseline)

(orange and green line mark the threshold of C1 and C2; blue line marks the threshold C3)

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 27

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

C1, C2, C3 C1, C2, C3 C1, C2, C3 C1, C2, C3 EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)

EARS Algorithm Tyrol Dispatch data (relevant actions) per day

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166 177 188 199 210 221 232 243 254 265 276 287 298 309 320 331 342 353 364

Days in 2003

C1graph

C2graph

C3graph

Figure Figure Figure Figure 17171717 C1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals in n n n EMD(AT) EMD(AT) EMD(AT) EMD(AT) in 2003 (unstratified baseline)in 2003 (unstratified baseline)in 2003 (unstratified baseline)in 2003 (unstratified baseline)

(orange and green line mark the threshold of C1 and C2; blue line marks the threshold C3)

EARS Algorithm Tyrol Dispatch data (relevant actions) per day

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166 177 188 199 210 221 232 243 254 265 276 287 298 309 320 331 342 353 364

Days in 2004

C1graph

C2graph

C3graph

Figure Figure Figure Figure 18181818 C1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals in n n n EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) in 2004 (unstratified baseline)in 2004 (unstratified baseline)in 2004 (unstratified baseline)in 2004 (unstratified baseline)

(orange and green line mark the threshold of C1 and C2; blue line marks the threshold C3)

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 28

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

EARS Algorithm Tyrol Dispatch data (relevant actions) per day

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166 177 188 199 210 221 232 243 254 265 276 287 298 309 320 331 342 353 364

Days in 2005

C1graph

C2graph

C3graph

Figure Figure Figure Figure 19191919 C1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals in n n n EMD(AT) EMD(AT) EMD(AT) EMD(AT) in 2005 (unstratified baseline)in 2005 (unstratified baseline)in 2005 (unstratified baseline)in 2005 (unstratified baseline)

(orange and green line mark the threshold of C1 and C2; blue line marks the threshold C3)

EARS Algorithm Tyrol Dispatch data (relevant actions) per day

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166 177 188 199 210 221 232 243 254 265 276 287 298 309 320 331 342 353 364

Days in 2006

C1graph

C2graph

C3graph

Figure Figure Figure Figure 20202020 C1, C2, C1, C2, C1, C2, C1, C2, C3 signals iC3 signals iC3 signals iC3 signals in Tyrol dispatch data in 2006 (unstratified baseline)n Tyrol dispatch data in 2006 (unstratified baseline)n Tyrol dispatch data in 2006 (unstratified baseline)n Tyrol dispatch data in 2006 (unstratified baseline)

(orange and green line mark the threshold of C1 and C2; blue line marks the threshold C3)

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 29

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

EARS Algorithm Tyrol Dispatch data (relevant actions) per day

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166 177 188 199 210 221 232 243 254 265 276 287 298 309 320 331 342 353 364

Days in 2007

C1graph

C2graph

C3graph

Figure Figure Figure Figure 21212121 C1, C2, C3 C1, C2, C3 C1, C2, C3 C1, C2, C3 signals isignals isignals isignals in n n n EMD(AT) EMD(AT) EMD(AT) EMD(AT) in 2007 (unstratified baselin 2007 (unstratified baselin 2007 (unstratified baselin 2007 (unstratified baseline)ine)ine)ine)

(orange and green line mark the threshold of C1 and C2; blue line marks the threshold C3)

EARS Algorithm Tyrol Dispatch data (relevant actions) per day

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166 177 188 199 210 221 232 243 254 265 276 287 298 309 320 331 342 353 364

Days in 2008

C1graph

C2graph

C3graph

Figure Figure Figure Figure 22222222 C1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals in n n n EMD(AT) EMD(AT) EMD(AT) EMD(AT) in 2008 (unstratified baseline)in 2008 (unstratified baseline)in 2008 (unstratified baseline)in 2008 (unstratified baseline)

(orange and green line mark the threshold of C1 and C2; blue line marks the threshold C3)

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© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

2003

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 1 1

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

26 27 28 29 30 31 23 24 25 26 27 28 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

30 31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

27 28 29 30 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 29 30

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

27 28 29 30 31 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 28 29 30

31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 1 1 2 3 4 5 6

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

26 27 28 29 30 31 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 28 29 30 31

30

2004

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

25 26 27 28 29 30 31 29 28 29 30 31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 1 1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

27 28 29 30 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 27 28 29 30

30 31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

25 26 27 28 29 30 31 29 30 31 26 27 28 29 30

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

24 25 26 27 28 29 30 28 29 30 26 27 28 29 30 31

31

JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH

APRIL MAY JUNE

MARCH

JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER NOVEMBER

APRIL MAY

DECEMBER

JANUARY FEBRUARY

OCTOBER NOVEMBER

JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

JUNE

DECEMBER

C1 C2 C3 C2, C3 C1, C2, C3

only signal in unstratified analysis Bold signal occurred also in unstratified analysis

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 31

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

2005

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 27 28 27 28 29 30 31

30 31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

24 25 26 27 28 29 30 29 30 31 26 27 28 29 30

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

24 25 26 27 28 29 30 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30

31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 27 28 29 30 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

30 31

2006

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

29 30 31 26 27 28 26 27 28 29 30 31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30

30

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 1 2 3 4 5 1 2

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 27 28 29 30 31 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

30 31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 1 2

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

29 30 31 26 27 28 29 30 31 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

31

JANUARY

APRIL MAY JUNE

MARCHFEBRUARY

AUGUST SEPTEMBER

DECEMBEROCTOBER NOVEMBER

JULY

MAY JUNE

MARCHJANUARY FEBRUARY

APRIL

OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER

JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

C1 C2 C3 C2, C3 C1, C2, C3

only signal in unstratified analysis Bold signal occurred also in unstratified analysis

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 32

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

2007

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 1 2 3

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 1 2

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

29 30 27 28 29 30 31 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 1

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

29 30 31 26 27 28 29 30 31 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

30

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 1

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

30 31

2008

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 1

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

27 28 29 30 31 24 25 26 27 28 29 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

30 31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

27 28 29 30 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 29 30

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

27 28 29 30 31 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 28 29 30

31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 1 1 2 3 4 5 6

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

26 27 28 29 30 31 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 28 29 30 31

30

JANUARY

JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

APRIL MAY

JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

JUNE

DECEMBER

MARCHFEBRUARY

OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER

MARCH

APRIL MAY JUNE

JANUARY FEBRUARY

OCTOBER NOVEMBER

C1 C2 C3 C2, C3 C1, C2, C3

only signal in unstratified analysis Bold signal occurred also in unstratified analysis

Figure Figure Figure Figure 23232323 Occurrence of signals of the C1, C2, C3 algorithm in Occurrence of signals of the C1, C2, C3 algorithm in Occurrence of signals of the C1, C2, C3 algorithm in Occurrence of signals of the C1, C2, C3 algorithm in EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT)EMD(AT) (relevant cases) in 2003 to 2008(relevant cases) in 2003 to 2008(relevant cases) in 2003 to 2008(relevant cases) in 2003 to 2008

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 33

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

CCCC1, C2, C3 1, C2, C3 1, C2, C3 1, C2, C3 ED(DE)ED(DE)ED(DE)ED(DE)

EARS Algorithm Goeppingen data (total) per day

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101 106111 116 121 126 131 136 141146 151 156 161 166 171 176181 186

Days in 2005 (from July)

C1graph

C2graph

C3graph

Figure Figure Figure Figure 24242424 C1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals in n n n ED(DE) ED(DE) ED(DE) ED(DE) in 2005 (from July) (unstratified baseline)in 2005 (from July) (unstratified baseline)in 2005 (from July) (unstratified baseline)in 2005 (from July) (unstratified baseline)

(Orange and green line mark the threshold of C1 and C2; blue line marks the threshold C3)

EARS Algorithm Goeppingen data (total) per day

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166 177 188 199 210 221 232 243 254 265 276 287 298 309 320 331 342 353 364

Days in 2006

C1graph

C2graph

C3graph

Figure Figure Figure Figure 25252525 C1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals in n n n ED(DE) ED(DE) ED(DE) ED(DE) in 2006 (unstratified baseline)in 2006 (unstratified baseline)in 2006 (unstratified baseline)in 2006 (unstratified baseline)

(orange and green line mark the threshold of C1 and C2; blue line marks the threshold C3)

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APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 34

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

EARS Algorithm Goeppingen data (total) per day

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166 177 188 199 210 221 232 243 254 265 276 287 298 309 320 331 342 353 364

Days in 2007

C1graph

C2graph

C3graph

Figure Figure Figure Figure 26262626 C1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals iC1, C2, C3 signals in n n n ED(DE) ED(DE) ED(DE) ED(DE) in 2007 (unstratified basin 2007 (unstratified basin 2007 (unstratified basin 2007 (unstratified baseline)eline)eline)eline)

(orange and green line mark the threshold of C1 and C2; blue line marks the threshold C3)

EARS Algorithm Goeppingen data (total) per day

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166 177 188 199 210 221 232 243 254 265 276 287 298 309 320 331 342 353 364

Days in 2008

C1graph

C2graph

C3graph

Figure Figure Figure Figure 27272727 C1, C2, C3 signals on Goeppingen data in 2008 (unstratified baseline)C1, C2, C3 signals on Goeppingen data in 2008 (unstratified baseline)C1, C2, C3 signals on Goeppingen data in 2008 (unstratified baseline)C1, C2, C3 signals on Goeppingen data in 2008 (unstratified baseline)

(orange and green line mark the threshold of C1 and C2; blue line marks the threshold C3)

Page 35: SIDARTHa WP 6 report 1 Appendix detection methodology · SIDARTHaSIDARTHa European Emergency DataEuropean Emergency Data- ---based Syndromic Surveillance Systembased Syndromic Surveillance

APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 35

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

2005

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

24 25 26 27 28 29 30 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30

31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 27 28 29 30 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

30 31

2006

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

29 30 31 26 27 28 26 27 28 29 30 31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30

30

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 1 2 3 4 5 1 2

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 27 28 29 30 31 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

30 31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 1 2

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

29 30 31 26 27 28 29 30 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

31

JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER

MARCH

APRIL MAY JUNE

JANUARY FEBRUARY

DECEMBEROCTOBER NOVEMBER

JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

C1 C2 C3 C2, C3 C1, C2, C3

only signal in unstratified analysis Bold signal occurred also in unstratified analysis

Page 36: SIDARTHa WP 6 report 1 Appendix detection methodology · SIDARTHaSIDARTHa European Emergency DataEuropean Emergency Data- ---based Syndromic Surveillance Systembased Syndromic Surveillance

APPENDIX - Developing Algorithms for Early Public Health Threat Detectionin Europe 36

© SIDARTHa 2010 DRAFT January 2010

2007

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 1 2 3

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 1 2

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

29 30 27 28 29 30 31 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 1

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

29 30 31 26 27 28 29 30 31 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

30

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 1

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

30 31

2008

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 1

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

27 28 29 30 31 24 25 26 27 28 29 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

30 31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

27 28 29 30 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 29 30

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

27 28 29 30 31 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 28 29 30

31

S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 1 1 2 3 4 5 6

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

26 27 28 29 30 31 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 28 29 30 31

30

OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER

APRIL MAY JUNE

JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER

JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH

APRIL MAY JUNE

JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH

C1 C2 C3 C2, C3 C1, C2, C3

only signal in unstratified analysis Bold signal occurred also in unstratified analysis

Figure Figure Figure Figure 28282828 Occurrence of signals of the C1, C2, C3 algorithm in Occurrence of signals of the C1, C2, C3 algorithm in Occurrence of signals of the C1, C2, C3 algorithm in Occurrence of signals of the C1, C2, C3 algorithm in ED(DE) ED(DE) ED(DE) ED(DE) in 2005in 2005in 2005in 2005----2008200820082008