Should We Protect Commercial Airplanes Against Surface-to-Air Missile Attacks by Terrorists? Detlof von Winterfeldt Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering Professor of Public Policy and Management Director, Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events University of Southern California DHS University Centers of Excellence Summit Washington, DC March 16, 2007
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Should We Protect Commercial Airplanes Against …...Should We Protect Commercial Airplanes Against Surface-to-Air Missile Attacks by Terrorists? Detlof von Winterfeldt Professor of
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Should We Protect Commercial Airplanes Against Surface-to-Air Missile Attacks by Terrorists?
Detlof von WinterfeldtProfessor of Industrial and Systems EngineeringProfessor of Public Policy and ManagementDirector, Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism EventsUniversity of Southern California
DHS University Centers of Excellence SummitWashington, DCMarch 16, 2007
MANPADS - Weapons
US REDEYE US REDEYE ------ 19671967
USSR SAUSSR SA--7 7 ------ 19681968
Bad Guys
Chechnya 2000Chechnya 2000SA-18SASA--1818
SA-14SASA--1414
STINGERSTINGERSTINGER
Close Call
MANPADS – Direct Consequences
• Fatalities• Injuries• Loss of Airplane(s)
MANPADS Indirect Consequences
• Aviation System Shutdown• Reduced Airline Passenger Volume• Fears and worries
Probabilities Base Case Min MaxAttempted Attack in 10 years 0.50 0.25 0.00 1.00Interdiction|Attempt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10Hit|Attack 0.80 0.80 0.00 1.00Crash|Hit 0.25 0.25 0.00 1.00
Two Way Sensitivity Analysis on Economic Losses and Probability (Cost=$10b)
Two Way Sensitivity Analysis on Economic Losses and Probability (Cost=$30b)
What About Shifting Terrorist Tactics?
Our Choice
Terrorists’ Choice
MANPADS Conclusions
• MANPADS countermeasures can be cost-effective if– the probability of a major attack is above 40%– the cost of countermeasures is less than $15 billion– the economic costs are more than $75 billion
• Considering shifting tactics of terrorists– this conclusion still holds– but: we should also add perimeter controls (RPGs)
• MANPADS is a national issue, not an airline issue• Consider policies to mitigate the economic impacts