Should hotels in Thailand damaged by the December 2004 tsunami be rebuilt on the beach? ORIANA FU.

Should hotels in Thailand damaged by the December 2004 tsunami be rebuilt on the

beach?

ORIANA FU

26 Dec 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake & tsunami

Greatest earthquake in 40 years Magnitude 9.0 on Richter scale Generation of disastrous tsunami in 11 countries

bordering the Indian Ocean

Causes

Cause: slippage of about 600 miles (1,000 km) of the boundary between the India and Burma plates off the west coast of northern Sumatra

Location: Beneath the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra, Indonesia

Overriding plate: Burma plate Subducting plate: Indian plate

India plate moves toward the northeast at a rate of about 6 cm/year relative to the Burma plate

Convergence of other plates at the Sunda trench strains the area partitioned into thrust-faulting

Releases of stresses that develop as the India plate subducts beneath the overriding Burma plate

Effects

Economic

Damage/casualties

Ecological/Environmental

Impacts

• the deadliest tsunami in recorded history• The earthquake was the fourth most powerful

recorded since 1900

Specifically

• 25,000 hectares of mangroves $118.2 mn• 30% of 97,250 hectares of coral reefs 332.4 mn• 20% of 600 hectares of seagrass beds were damaged $2.3 mn

Area

According to International Monetary Fund, • limited effect on economies

• severe damage inflicted on ecosystems • spread of solid and liquid waste and industrial

chemicals, water pollution

• India: 0.25 per cent of GDP• Indonesia: 0- 0.25 percentage points (more than

offset by reconstruction aid) • Thailand: 0.5-1percentage point ($US1.5 billion

relief package)

U.S. Geological Survey: • 283,100 killed• 14,100missing• 1,126,900 displaced• 90,000 houses destroyed

Humanitarian • great deal of humanitarian aid needed • Epidemics • provide sanitation facilities and fresh drinking

water to contain spread of diseases

• great deal of humanitarian aid needed • Epidemics • provide sanitation facilities and fresh drinking

water to contain spread of diseases

• Nations all over the world provided over USD 3 billion in aid for damaged regions

Most affected countries

Southeast Asia and beyond:Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand, the Maldives, Somalia, Myanmar, Malaysia, Seychelles and others.

Many other countries, especially Australia and those in Europe, had large numbers of citizens travelling in the region on holiday. Countries like Sweden and Germany lost over 500 citizens in the disaster.

Source: wikipedia

The issue

Balance the RISKS and BENEFITS

of rebuilding the resorts

RISKS

Possible aftershock numerous detected (The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center:

68 aftershocks as of Dec 29) Largest (magnitude of 7.1) occurred about 3 hours after the main shock 13 have magnitudes of 6.0 or larger know from past experience that the number of aftershocks will decrease with time However, the number of aftershocks can be quite variable overall trend: fewer aftershocks as time goes by Seismologists are not able to predict the timing and sizes of individual aftershocks other great (M > 8) earthquakes have occurred in the region?

2000 --- 7.9M along the subduction zone from southern Sumatra 1861 --- 8.5M 1833 --- 8.7M 1797 --- 8.4M

evidence shows that great earthquakes or earthquake couplets occur about every 230 years

Fault slipped ~ 10m 10000mm/20mm/yr =500 yr500 yr

Same area, only 36 years apart

Possible tsunami no reports No existing system of instruments in the Indian Ocean to know if a tsunami has been generated Based on historical earthquake-tsunami records What other significant tsunamis have occurred in the region?

1941 --- 7.7M earthquake (no official records of tsunami) 1883 --- Krakatau explosion, 36,000 fatalities 1881 --- 7.9M, 1m high tsunami 1861 --- 8.5M earthquake, thousands fatalities 1843 --- many fatalities 1833 --- 8.7M numerous victims 1797 --- 8.4M, > 300 fatalities

Depth of aftershocks quite variable important consideration Many are strike-slip earthquakes (as opposed to thrust) not likely to generate tsunamis Only earthquakes with magnitude 7.9 or above: likely to generate destructive tsunamis CONCLUSION: chance is small, but finite the great tsunami of 26 December is extremely unlikely to reoccur in the near future

Economic losses

Whole country relatively marginal economic impact tourism and fishing - small

percentages; 5.4-12 % of GDP (directly or indirectly?)

2004 growth: 6.1% 2005 forecast: 5.5-6.5% Standard Chartered Bank estimates:

decrease less than 1 percent countries' infrastructures true cost Phuket, accounts for about 1.3% much of the Phuket tourism has been

rerouted to other Thai resort towns using gross domestic product only? The loss was huge in houses, boats,

ports, hotels, clinics, roads and railways, and all will have to be rebuilt.

IndividualsIndividuals Individual lives, livelihoods of millions

of families in South Asia Houses, boats Lots are not insured the poor who will suffer, rather than

the overall economy Mostly affected the sea-side fishermen Main income for hotels, resorts Psychological impact: psychosocial

trauma Costs that cannot be measured true

cost

Benefits

Investment opportunities A surge in the construction industry ($2 bn expected to be

invested) Production of raw materials like cement and steel that supply

it

Tourism CNN/TIME survey: tourism not deterred.

France: consideration for taking a holiday in the region rose 2%

Main source of income for those living near the beach or hotel business

Thailand is confident in meeting target of 13.38 million visitors

arrival figures have picked up Projected Hotel occupancy: 70-80% for the final three

months of 2005 2006- a landmark year for Thai tourism

more than 60 major cultural festivities and sports events to celebrate the Thai king's 60th year on the throne

hopes to reach 20 million foreign visitors annually by 2008

Should this be done?

Yes Hard to weigh benefits and losses Relatively rare chance for such a large-scale disaster to reoccur in future Afterall, costs in terms of human lives are immeasurable

“The great dilemma of environmental reasoning stems from this

conflict between short-term & long-term values…

To combine the two visions to create a

universal environmental ethic is…very difficult”

(E.O.Wilson, 2002)

Recommendations

1. tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean Identify and map areas of risk Tectonic faults Seafloor topography Study effects of past tsunamis Computer models for prediction Estimated cost: $250-$400 mn

2. Construction: tsunami walls in front of populated coastal areas floodgates and channels to redirect the water

from incoming tsunamis natural factors such as tree cover on the

shoreline, coconut palms and mangroves Slow Water: Forests, ditches, slopes, or berms

can slow down waves and filter out debris

3. Avoid Inundation Areas Site Buildings or infrastructure away from hazard

area or locate on a high point

4. Better materialsconcrete, masonry and heavy steel frames tend to withstand a tsunami if it is unaccompanied by an earthquake

5. Better communication channels

6. Education