Shortage of Natural Resources The Scientific Innovative Power coming from India Dr. Brian W Tempest Chief Mentor & Executive Vice Chairman of the Board Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited, Delhi, India St. Gallen Symposium, St. Gallen, Switzerland Friday, 1 st June 2007
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Shortage of Natural Resources The Scientific Innovative Power coming from India Dr. Brian W Tempest Chief Mentor & Executive Vice Chairman of the Board.
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Shortage of Natural ResourcesThe Scientific Innovative Power coming from India
Dr. Brian W Tempest
Chief Mentor & Executive Vice Chairman of the Board
Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited, Delhi, India
St. Gallen Symposium, St. Gallen, Switzerland
Friday, 1st June 2007
Asia’s Share of the World GDP (at PPP in %)
Year 1870 1913 1950 1973 2001 China 17% 9% 5% 5% 12% India 12% 8% 4% 3% 5% Japan 2% 3% 3% 8% 7%
Rest of Asia 7% 5% 7% 9% 13% Total Asia 38% 25% 19% 25% 37%
Source – WEF
- was 59% in 1820 with India 16%, China 33%
Davos
Source – FT
The Productivity Advantage
India a usa Pharma view USA India a usa Pharma view USA
1 chemist Better education x 1.3 1 chemist 1 chemist Better education x 1.3 1 chemist
70 hours/week Longer working time x 1.3 50 hours/week 70 hours/week Longer working time x 1.3 50 hours/week
$ 800 monthly Lower cost x 20 $ 12,000 monthly $ 800 monthly Lower cost x 20 $ 12,000 monthly
Sources: IPHMR Conferences, New Delhi August 2004
Japan - by 2050 36% > 65 years from 19% in 2005
China - one child families, get older before becoming wealthy - labour costs will rise owing to labour shortage India - India already has the youngest labour force in the world - source of the extra needed global workforce - India will pass China in total population in 2030 - By 2013 India will have more young workers 20-24 than China
The Ageing Advantage
Working Population, 15-64 yearsIn millions
The R&D Investment Advantage Most attractive R&D Investment locations:Ranked 3rd - China, USA, India, Japan & UK
Source – UNCTAD 2005
Reasons why India: Qualified Scientists & Engineers Global India players with Alliances English speaking TRIPs compliant – first patent March 2006 IIT, IIM & other scientific institutions
Source – UNCTAD 2005
4th largest reservoir of Scientific Manpower (2nd largest English speaking)
3m graduates pa, 115k MSc Chemistry (3.5k UK), 215k Eng (222k USA)
Physics the most popular subject
Lead by a Nuclear Scientist as President – remote sensing satellite technology, 1/6 countries
PCT application ranked 3rd – Kor, Chi, Ind, Sin, RSA
“US & Europe will not dominate Science, Maths, IT industries” – Mr. Bill Gates
The Science Natural Resources Advantage
Science Natural Resources in EU
“This means that when pupils are in a science laboratory their experience is unsafe, unsatisfactory or uninspiring for 65% of the time.” Source: Royal Society of Chemistry, Policy Bulletin – Spring 2006
UK “A” Level entries: Closed UK University 2000 2005 % change Chemistry Departments: Physics : 32,059 28,119 -12% Dundee Kings Chemistry: 40,856 38,851 -5% Surrey Exeter Maths: 67,036 52,897 -21% Lancaster Queen Mary Computing: 19,099 7,242 -62% Source: Daily Mail – 11 August 2006
Only pupils at private schools can take physics, chemistry & biology separately Source: Times, 9th November 2006
Number of Higher Education Institutions
05/06 18,123 +59%
00/01 11,412
90/01 5,932
80/01 4,861
Source: Indian University Grants Commission
Science Natural Resources in India
Number of Students enrolled in
Higher Education Institutions
05/06 10,500 +40%
00/01 7,500
90/01 4,000
80/01 3,000Source: Indian University Grants Commission
Number of Institutions courses
05/06 99/00
Pharmacy 1478 669 +120%
Medicine 229 174 +32%
Physiotherapy 205 52 +294%
Source: Pavan Agarwal (2006) based on data
from professional councils
PhD Degree awarded in Science
03/04 5408 +44%
00/01 3734
90/01 2950
(USA 03/04 25,000)
Source: Indian University Grants Committee
The Science Natural Resources Advantage
Engineers/Science graduates p.a – India 0.7m, China 0.5m, EU 0.5m, USA 0.4m, Japan 0.3m
Microsoft Global Development Centre (GDCI)
Microsoft Global Services (MGSI)
Microsoft Global Technical Support Centre (GTSC)
Microsoft Systems Research (MSRI)
Microsoft India Development Centre (MIDC)
Investment by Microsoft in India
The Pharma Plants Advantage
Active Pharmaceuticals Facility, Mohali Dosage Forms Facility, Paonta Sahib
Generics – API’sUSA DMF filings by India
1990 1 1995 4 2000 36 2004 187 2005 262 Source: Crisil / US FDA / J P Morgan
% Share of USA DMF filings India China 2004 27% 9% 2005 37% 10% 2006 44% 14%
Q1’07 48% 17%
Source: US FDA / J P Morgan, 2nd May 2007
Source: US FDA, Credit Suisse
Generics Rankings
Source: UBS, Businessworld, 30th October 2006
Discovery – Local vendors available in India to Support Discovery Research
•Post TRIPs new products will dry up in India by 2008. Under this pressure Indian companies will adopt different business models
•The global generic industry will be dominated by India
•Discovery companies will continue to be attracted to India
•China will be perceived to be stronger in biology/ toxicology
•Alliances between Western Biotech and Indian companies will expand
•It will be India & China - and not India or China.
Potential Challenge – Asian Flu*
*50% of world chickens bred in Asia
Potential Challenge – Infrastructure
Source – Manmohan Singh
“Our greatest potential will be realised only if we can ensure that ourInfrastructure does not become a severe and critical handicap”
CO2 emission - % of World total in 1990-2000
USA 23%EU 25 17%China 14%Russia 7%Japan 5%India 4%
– source: WRI, EIA
Potential Challenge – Climate Change
Asia economic strength is returning to levels seen in the past
Many advantages for India – Demographics, Education India is a global strategic asset for developed markets Some “Challenges” – infrastructure, climate change
The current feeling in Indian Boardrooms is that a turning point has been reached, a tipping point has been passed and India’s time has arrived
India is a rich location for future alliances
MNCs will dip in& out of India & China, using their individual strengths
“China & India represent the future of Asia and quite possibly the future for the global economy” – Steve Roach, Morgan Stanley
SummaryThe Scientific Innovative Power coming from India