U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2019 1 June 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Forecast highlights Global liquid fuels • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $71 per barrel (b) in May, largely unchanged from April 2019 and almost $6/b lower than the price in May of last year. However, Brent prices fell sharply in recent weeks, reaching $62/b on June 5. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $67/b in 2019, $3/b lower than the forecast in last month’s STEO, and remain at $67/b in 2020. EIA’s lower 2019 Brent price path reflects rising uncertainty about global oil demand growth. • EIA forecasts global oil inventories will decline by 0.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019 and then increase by 0.3 million b/d in 2020. Although global liquid fuels demand outpaces supply in 2019 in EIA’s forecast, global liquid fuels supply is forecast to rise by 2.0 million b/d in 2020, with 1.4 million of that growth coming from the United States. Global oil demand rises by 1.4 million b/d in 2020 in the forecast, up from expected growth of 1.2 million b/d in 2019. • Annual U.S. crude oil production reached a record 11.0 million b/d in 2018. EIA forecasts that U.S. production will increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2019 and by 0.9 million b/d in 2020, with 2020 production averaging 13.3 million b/d. Despite EIA’s expectation for slowing growth, the 2019 forecast would be the second-largest annual growth on record (following 1.6 million b/d in 2018), and the 2020 forecast would be the fifth-largest growth on record. • For the 2019 summer driving season, which runs from April through September, EIA forecasts that U.S. regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.76 per gallon (gal), down from an average of $2.85/gal last summer. The lower forecast gasoline prices primarily reflect EIA’s expectation of lower crude oil prices this summer. Natural gas • The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.64/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in May, almost unchanged from April. EIA expects strong growth in U.S. natural gas production to put downward pressure on prices in 2019. EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will average $2.77/MMBtu in 2019, down 38 cents/MMBtu from 2018. EIA expects natural gas prices in 2020 will again average $2.77/MMBtu.
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2019 1
June 2019
Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
Forecast highlights
Global liquid fuels
• Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $71 per barrel (b) in May, largely unchanged from April 2019 and almost $6/b lower than the price in May of last year. However, Brent prices fell sharply in recent weeks, reaching $62/b on June 5. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $67/b in 2019, $3/b lower than the forecast in last month’s STEO, and remain at $67/b in 2020. EIA’s lower 2019 Brent price path reflects rising uncertainty about global oil demand growth.
• EIA forecasts global oil inventories will decline by 0.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019 and then increase by 0.3 million b/d in 2020. Although global liquid fuels demand outpaces supply in 2019 in EIA’s forecast, global liquid fuels supply is forecast to rise by 2.0 million b/d in 2020, with 1.4 million of that growth coming from the United States. Global oil demand rises by 1.4 million b/d in 2020 in the forecast, up from expected growth of 1.2 million b/d in 2019.
• Annual U.S. crude oil production reached a record 11.0 million b/d in 2018. EIA forecasts that U.S. production will increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2019 and by 0.9 million b/d in 2020, with 2020 production averaging 13.3 million b/d. Despite EIA’s expectation for slowing growth, the 2019 forecast would be the second-largest annual growth on record (following 1.6 million b/d in 2018), and the 2020 forecast would be the fifth-largest growth on record.
• For the 2019 summer driving season, which runs from April through September, EIA forecasts that U.S. regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.76 per gallon (gal), down from an average of $2.85/gal last summer. The lower forecast gasoline prices primarily reflect EIA’s expectation of lower crude oil prices this summer.
Natural gas
• The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.64/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in May, almost unchanged from April. EIA expects strong growth in U.S. natural gas production to put downward pressure on prices in 2019. EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will average $2.77/MMBtu in 2019, down 38 cents/MMBtu from 2018. EIA expects natural gas prices in 2020 will again average $2.77/MMBtu.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2019 2
• EIA forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will average 90.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2019, up 7.2 Bcf/d from 2018. EIA expects natural gas production will continue to grow in 2020, albeit at a slower rate, averaging 91.8 Bcf/d next year.
• U.S. natural gas exports averaged 9.9 Bcf/d in 2018, and EIA forecasts that they will rise by 2.5 Bcf/d in 2019 and by 2.9 Bcf/d in 2020. Rising exports reflect increases in liquefied natural gas exports as new facilities come online. Rising natural gas exports are also the result of an expected increase in pipeline exports to Mexico.
• EIA estimates that natural gas inventories ended March at 1.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), 15% lower than levels from a year earlier and 28% lower than the five-year (2014–18) average. EIA forecasts that natural gas storage injections will outpace the previous five-year average during the 2019 April-through-October injection season and that inventories will reach almost 3.8 Tcf at the end of October, which would be 17% higher than October 2018 levels and about equal to the five-year average.
Electricity, coal, renewables, and emissions
• EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 35% in 2018 to 37% in 2019 and to 38% in 2020. EIA forecasts that the share of generation from coal will average 24% in 2019 and 23% in 2020, down from 27% in 2018. The forecast nuclear share of generation falls from 20% in 2019 to 19% in 2020, reflecting the retirement of some nuclear reactors. Hydropower averages a 7% share of total generation in the forecast for 2019 and 2020, similar to 2018. Wind, solar, and other nonhydropower renewables together provided 10% of U.S. generation in 2018. EIA expects they will provide 11% in 2019 and 13% in 2020.
• EIA forecasts that renewable fuels, including wind, solar, and hydropower, will collectively produce 18% of U.S. electricity in 2019 and almost 20% in 2020. EIA expects that annual generation from wind will surpass hydropower generation for the first time in 2019 to become the leading source of renewable electricity generation and maintain that position in 2020.
• EIA forecasts that U.S. coal consumption, which reached a 39-year low of 687 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, will fall to 602 MMst in 2019 and to 567 MMst in 2020. The falling consumption reflects lower demand for coal in the electric power sector.
• After rising by 2.7% in 2018, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decline by 2.0% in 2019 and by 0.9% in 2020. EIA expects U.S. CO2 emissions will fall in 2019 and in 2020 because its forecast assumes that temperatures will return to near normal, and because the forecast share of electricity generated from natural gas and renewables increases while the forecast share generated from coal, which produces more CO2 emissions, decreases. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2019 3
Petroleum and natural gas markets review Crude oil
Prices: The front-month futures price for Brent crude oil settled at $61.67 per barrel (b) on June 6, 2019, a decrease of $10.51/b from May 1. The front-month futures price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for delivery at Cushing, Oklahoma, decreased by $11.01/b during the same period, settling at $52.59/b on June 6 (Figure 1).
Crude oil price volatility increased in May after declining for four consecutive months and stayed at elevated levels into the first week of June. Demand-side concerns became the most salient issue during the past month and contributed to volatility and price declines for risk assets such as commodities and equities. Both China and the United States issued tariffs on each other, with the United States also announcing potential tariffs on Mexico near the end of May. In addition, expected industrial activity, as measured by the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), declined across several countries in May, and the U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level since 2009. These developments are contributing to concerns that economic growth could be lower than market participants’ expectations, which would cause oil demand growth to also be lower than expected.
Declining crude oil production in Venezuela and Iran, as well as Saudi Arabian over-compliance with December 2018 Vienna agreement production cuts, pushed crude oil production among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to 29.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in May, the lowest for any month since July 2014. In addition, production shut-ins in Russia related to contamination of the Druzhba crude oil pipeline have emerged, and the market effect of these reductions has been compounded by planned maintenance on crude oil production platforms in the North Sea, where crude oil grades are in many cases substitutable for the disrupted Russian barrels.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2019 4
A weakening outlook for demand at the same time near-term oil supplies are disrupted has lowered spot prices of crude oil while increasing futures price backwardation (when near-term prices are higher than longer-dated ones). Despite the recent demand uncertainties, EIA still expects a need for inventory withdrawals to meet demand given its forecast of near-term global crude oil production. EIA forecasts that global oil inventory withdrawals in the second and third quarters of 2019 will average 0.2 million b/d and 0.6 million b/d, respectively. EIA estimates that, as of the end of May, crude oil and other petroleum inventories in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) were enough to cover 61 days of demand, only 1% lower than the five-year (2014–18) average (Figure 2). EIA expects that inventory withdrawals in the coming months will reduce the days of coverage further.
EIA is reducing its 2019 Brent crude oil price forecast to $67/b, which is $3/b lower than in the May STEO. The lower 2019 price forecast largely reflects recent global crude oil price declines as well as the uncertainty about global oil demand growth. EIA expects global oil demand to grow by 1.2 million b/d in 2019, 0.2 million b/d lower than the May forecast. EIA’s forecast for 2019 non-OECD oil-weighted GDP growth, based on forecasts from Oxford Economics, is 2.7%, which would be the lowest growth since 2009 and the second-lowest growth on record in a data set going back to 1994. However, EIA expects that crude oil prices will increase from current levels by the end of the year. EIA forecasts that Brent prices will average $68/b in the fourth quarter of 2019 as a result of inventory withdrawals during the summer, lower OPEC crude oil production than previously forecasted, and the expected increase in demand for light sweet crude oil ahead of the implementation of low sulfur bunker fuel regulations in January 2020. EIA expects that prices will remain near that level in 2020 based on EIA’s forecast of relatively balanced global oil markets next year.
Crude oil price spreads: Notwithstanding the decline in overall price levels in May, several factors specific to Brent and WTI are widening the Brent–WTI futures price spread. The Brent–WTI futures price spread settled at $8.94/b on June 6, an increase of 45 cents/b since May 1
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2019 5
(Figure 3). In late April, flows on parts of the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Russian Urals crude oil to Europe, were suspended because of contamination of the crude oil. This disruption limited availability of Urals for several refiners in Europe that are regular purchasers of the crude oil grade. By early June, some Druzhba pipeline flows had been restored, but other refineries were still waiting for the contaminated crude oil to be removed from the pipeline so that flows of uncontaminated crude oil could resume. The contaminated crude oil will have to be stored for several months and gradually blended with clean crude oil to dilute the contaminants so the oil can be refined. Certain North Sea crude oil streams can substitute for Urals, which likely contributed to some relative upward price pressure for Brent in May. In addition, planned maintenance at some North Sea fields is expected to reduce available deliveries for June, which may have also put upward price pressure on Brent prices relative to other crude oils.
In contrast, Cushing WTI prices declined more than Brent prices in May because of logistical problems in the U.S. Midwest. Floods in the Midwest contributed to the temporary closure of several pipelines out of Cushing that provide feedstock to certain refiners. This disruption likely contributed to crude oil stocks in Cushing building by 4.8 million barrels from the first week in May to the last week in May, a month in which Cushing stocks typically draw by 2.1 million barrels, based on the five-year average stock change. Outside of the logistical issues in Cushing, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased in May. Total U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 15.7 million barrels in May, according to STEO estimates for the month, compared with a five-year average draw of 2.1 million barrels. If confirmed in monthly data, this year’s stock build would be the largest for the month of May since 1991.
Emerging market currencies: Some of the demand-side concerns affecting crude oil markets could also be reducing the value of emerging market currencies compared with the U.S. dollar. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Market Currency Index tracks a basket of emerging market currencies that declined 1% from May 1 through June 6 (Figure 4). A lower value of the index indicates emerging market currencies are depreciating against the U.S.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2019 6
dollar. The recent decline in the MSCI Emerging Market Currency index could indicate a reduction in economic activity in countries such as China or South Korea, countries with relatively high weightings in the index. The Chinese manufacturing PMI for May declined to 49.4. Any reading lower than 50 indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity. In addition, total South Korean exports of all goods declined 9.4% from May 2018 to May 2019, the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines.
Petroleum products
Gasoline prices: The front-month futures price of reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB, the petroleum component of gasoline used in many parts of the country) settled at $1.71 per gallon (gal) on June 6, down 36 cents/gal since May 1 (Figure 5). The RBOB–Brent crack spread (the difference between the price of RBOB and the price of Brent crude oil) declined by 11 cents/gal to settle at 24 cents/gal during the same period.
After increasing in April, the gasoline crack spread again dropped lower than the five-year (2014–18) range in May, averaging 4 cents below the previous five-year low of 35 cents for that month in 2018. Factors contributing to the smaller crack spread could include gasoline stock builds and gasoline consumption that were lower than year-ago levels. EIA estimates that U.S. gasoline consumption averaged 9.39 million barrels per day (b/d) in May, a decrease of 0.16 million b/d from the same period last year. Gasoline stocks increased during the month, ending close to the five-year average after ending April 6% lower than year-ago levels.
Flooding in the Midwest reduced refinery operations in Oklahoma and limited crude oil and product deliveries to the region’s refineries, preventing crude and product movement from the Gulf Coast to the Midwest and contributing to regional disparities in U.S. gasoline stock levels. In addition, refinery issues on the West Coast normalized mid-month, contributing to a stock build in that area. EIA estimates gasoline stocks ended May 4% higher than the five-year average on
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2019 7
the Gulf Coast and 6% higher than the five-year average on the West Coast, while gasoline stocks in the Midwest were 7% lower than the five-year average.
Gasoline spot price differentials: In contrast to the United States, gasoline prices increased in Northwest Europe in May (Figure 6). Refinery shutdowns in the region, combined with the contamination of crude oil import pipelines from Russia, contributed to reduced refinery runs and gasoline production in Europe. Northwest Europe’s gasoline–Brent spot crack spread rose higher than the five-year low for the first time in 6 months and higher than the five-year average for the first time in 17 months. On May 20, these factors contributed to the lowest Gulf Coast gasoline spot price relative to Northwest Europe since November 2015. On May 31, they contributed to the lowest New York Harbor gasoline spot price relative to Northwest Europe since August 2011.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2019 8
Ultra-low sulfur diesel prices: The ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) front-month futures price decreased 31 cents/gal from May 1 to settle at $1.79/gal on June 6. The ULSD–Brent crack spread (the difference between the price of ULSD and the price of Brent crude oil) declined 6 cents/gal to settle at 32 cents/gal during the same period (Figure 7).
EIA estimates that U.S. distillate consumption in May was 3.9 million b/d, 380,000 b/d lower than in May 2018 and 40,000 b/d lower than the five-year average. However, some of the available transportation data are mixed. The truck tonnage data from the American Trucking Association for April (most recent available) show a 7.7% year-over-year increase, whereas the April 2019 Cass Freight Index report—reflecting the volume of freight shipments via all modes of domestic freight transportation, including rail, truck, and air—shows a 3.2% contraction for the month. Despite these and other economic indicators reflecting a potential slowdown in growth, EIA estimates distillate consumption will return to year-over-year growth through the third quarter of 2019. EIA’s forecast is based on the expectation of a 2.7% growth in U.S. GDP in 2019, indicating future growth in overall diesel demand.
U.S. Gulf Coast refinery margins: The recent increase in medium and heavy crude oil prices that peaked in November 2018 reversed somewhat in March, April, and the first half of May 2019, before increasing again in late May. Reductions in crude oil production from Venezuela are likely increasing the price of medium and heavy crude oils compared with light crude oils. The 5:3:2 crack spread—refining three barrels of gasoline and two barrels of distillate from five barrels of Mars crude oil, which exemplifies a complex U.S. Gulf Coast refinery margin—averaged $13.94 per barrel (b) in May, after reaching a 2019 high of $16.95/b (40 cents/gal) on April 10 (Figure 8). Comparatively stable distillate crack spreads have supported total refinery margins. Although U.S. Gulf Coast gasoline crack spreads have remained positive since February, weaker crack spreads in May put downward pressure on margins from the April highs.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2019 9
Natural Gas
Prices: The front-month natural gas futures contract for delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $2.32/million British thermal units (MMBtu) on June 6, a decrease of 30 cents/MMBtu from May 1 (Figure 9). EIA estimates that U.S. natural gas production reached another record high in May. This persistent production growth contributed to injections of more than 100 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for five of the past six weeks, bringing U.S. working gas in underground storage levels closer to the five-year (2014–18) average, 9% higher than year-ago levels. Combined net injections into storage during April and May, in 2019, are estimated to be the largest on record for that two-month period at 831 Bcf (Figure 10), which helped to reduce futures prices even though inventories remain lower than the five-year average.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2019 10
Money manager positions: The number of futures short positions money managers reported holding for NYMEX natural gas contracts rose above long positions on May 21, 2019, for the first time since December 26, 2017 (Figure 11). The money manager category of the Commitments of Traders report, published weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, include fund managers that conduct organized futures trading on behalf of clients, and they are not involved in physical oil trading as their business activity. A short position indicates expectations of lower prices while a long position indicates the opposite. On November 13, 2018, money managers’ net long positions reached a record high. Natural gas prices increased sharply in mid-November after colder-than-normal weather reduced natural gas inventories to about 700 Bcf lower than the five-year average. In April and May 2019, however, ongoing increases in natural gas production contributed to record injections into natural gas storage, which, combined with forecasts of below-normal temperatures for June, have lowered price expectations. The natural gas front-month futures price on June 6 of $2.32/MMBtu was the lowest since May 2016.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2019 11
Notable forecast changes
• EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $67 per barrel (b) in 2019, down about $3/b from last month’s STEO forecast. The lower 2019 price forecast largely reflects recent price declines in global crude oil prices, which lowered the starting point for EIA’s forecast, and uncertainty about global oil demand growth. Forecast global liquid fuels supply and consumption were both lowered by about 0.2-0.3 million barrels per day (b/d) for 2019 and for 2020. The lower global supply growth forecast is mostly the result of lower crude oil production growth in the United States because of lower expected oil prices and an expectation of increasing crude oil production declines in Venezuela. The reduction in global demand growth reflects both a revision to historical data that carries through to the forecast and lower oil consumption growth in 2019 because of reduction in forecast 2019 oil-weighted GDP growth among countries not part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
• For more information, see the detailed table of STEO forecast changes
• For ore information, see the detailed STEO table of forecast changes.
This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.
U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sources: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019, and CME Group
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the five trading days ending Jun 6, 2019. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near -the-money options contracts.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price and NYMEX confidence intervalsdollars per barrel
0.27
0.31
-0.09
0.11
-0.50-0.40-0.30-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.300.400.50
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual gasoline price changesdollars per gallon
Brent crude oil pricewholesale margin over crude
retail margin over wholesale
forecast
0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly retail regular gasolineannual average gasolinemonthly Brent crude oilannual average Brent
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices
dollars per gallon
forecast
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
0.27
0.31
-0.09
0.11
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual gasoline price changesdollars per gallon
Brent crude oil pricewholesale margin over crude
retail margin over wholesale
net change
forecast
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly retail regular gasolineannual average gasolinemonthly Brent crude oilannual average Brent
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices
dollars per gallon
forecast
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
20
0.34
0.53
-0.08
0.18
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual dieselprices changesdollars per gallon
Brent crude oil pricewholesale marginover crude
retail marginover wholesale
net change
forecast
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly retail dieselannual average dieselmonthly Brent crude oilBrent annual average
U.S. diesel and crude oil prices
forecast
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
0.34
0.53
-0.08
0.18
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual dieselprices changesdollars per gallon
Brent crude oil pricewholesale marginover crude
retail marginover wholesale
net change
forecast
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly retail dieselannual average dieselmonthly Brent crude oilBrent annual average
U.S. diesel and crude oil prices
dollars per gallon
forecast
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
0123456789
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Henry Hub natural gas price and NYMEX confidence intervalsdollars per million Btu
Sources: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019, and CME Group
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the five trading days ending Jun 6, 2019. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options contracts.
monthly residential priceannual average residentialmonthly Henry Hub spot priceHenry Hub annual average
U.S. natural gas pricesdollars per thousand cubic feet
forecast
Sources: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019, and Refinitiv
-74
222
-173
39
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changemillion kilowatthours per day
residential salesindustrial salescommercial and transportation salesdirect usenet change
forecast
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly history
monthly forecast
annual average
U.S. electricity consumptionmillion kilowatthours per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
-74
222
-173
39
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changemillion kilowatthours per day
residential salesindustrial salescommercial and transportation salesdirect usenet change
forecast
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly history
monthly forecast
annual average
U.S. electricity consumptionmillion kilowatthours per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
0.85
0.40 0.26
0.66
forecast
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changequadrillion British thermal units
net changesolar windhydropowerliquid biofuelsgeothermalwood biomasswaste biomass
forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
U.S. renewable energy supplyquadrillion British thermal units
Note: Hydropower excludes pumped storage generation. Liquid biofuels include ethanol and biodiesel. Other biomass includes municipal waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, and other
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
0.85
0.40 0.26
0.66
forecast
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changequadrillion British thermal units
net changesolar windhydropowerliquid biofuelsgeothermalwood biomasswaste biomass
forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
U.S. renewable energy supplyquadrillion British thermal units
Note: Hydropower excludes pumped storage generation. Liquid biofuels include ethanol and biodiesel. Other biomass includes municipal waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, and other non-wood waste.Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
-42
137
-104
-47
forecast
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changemillion metric tons
natural gaspetroleumcoalnet change
forecast
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
total energy
petroleum
natural gas
U.S. annual carbon emissions by sourcemillion metric tons
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
-42
137
-104
-47
forecast
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changemillion metric tons
natural gaspetroleumcoalnet change
forecast
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
total energy
petroleum
natural gas
coal
U.S. annual carbon emissions by sourcemillion metric tons
Note: Black line represents 2009-2018 average (2.3 million barrels per day).
forecast
2009-2018 average
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) surplus crude oil production capacitymillion barrels per day
forecast
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)commercial inventories of crude oil and other liquidsdays of supply
monthly range from January 2014 - December 2018//
0
0.52
1.611.36
0.94
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changemillion barrels per day
Federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM)
Lower 48 excluding GOMAlaska
forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly history
monthly forecast
annual average
U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
0.52
1.611.36
0.94
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changemillion barrels per day
Federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM)
Lower 48 excluding GOMAlaskanet change
forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly history
monthly forecast
annual average
U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
20
forecast
275300325350375400425450475500525550575600
Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
U.S. commercial crude oil inventoriesmillion barrels
//
monthly range from January 2014 - December 2018
0.8
2.22.0
1.3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changemillion barrels per day
ethanol and biodieselnatural gas plant liquidscrude oilnet change
forecast
0
5
10
15
20
25
2017 2018 2019 2020
total monthly production
forecast
annual average
U.S. crude oil and liquid fuels productionmillion barrels per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
0.8
2.22.0
1.3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changemillion barrels per day
ethanol and biodieselnatural gas plant liquidscrude oilnet change
forecast
0
5
10
15
20
25
2017 2018 2019 2020
total monthly production
forecast
annual average
U.S. crude oil and liquid fuels productionmillion barrels per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
0.3
0.5
0.2 0.2
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual change
motor gasolinedistillate fueljet fuelhydrocarbon gas liquidsother fuelsnet change
forecast
0
5
10
15
20
25
2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly history
monthly forecast
annual average
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied(consumption) million barrels per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
0.3
0.5
0.2 0.2
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual change
million barrels per day
motor gasolinedistillate fueljet fuelhydrocarbon gas liquidsother fuelsnet change
forecast
0
5
10
15
20
25
2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly history
monthly forecast
annual average
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied(consumption) million barrels per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
020
forecast
6080
100120140160180200220240260280
Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventoriesmillion barrels
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
monthly range from January 2014 - December 2018
total motor gasoline inventory
total distillate fuel inventory
forecast
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020
Note: Liquids fuels include: gasoline, distillate fuels, hydrocarbon gas liquids, jet fuel, residual fuel oil, unfinished oils, other hydrocarbons/oxygenates, and other oils.Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
U.S. net imports of crude oil and liquid fuelsmillion barrels per day
crude oil net imports
totalnet imports
liquid fuelsnet imports
0.3
0.60.6
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changemillion barrels per day
net changenatural gasolinebutanespropaneethane
forecast
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly production
monthly forecast
annual average
U.S. natural gas plant liquids productionmillion barrels per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
0.3
0.60.6
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changemillion barrels per day
net changenatural gasolinebutanespropaneethane
forecast
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly production
monthly forecast
annual average
U.S. natural gas plant liquids productionmillion barrels per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
20
0.11
0.340.23
0.14
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual change
million barrels per day
net changenatural gasolineethanepropanebutanes
forecast
0
1
2
3
4
5
2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly history
monthly forecast
annual average
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied (consumption)million barrels per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
0.11
0.340.23
0.14
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual change
million barrels per day
net changenatural gasolineethanepropanebutanes
forecast
0
1
2
3
4
5
2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly history
monthly forecast
annual average
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied (consumption)million barrels per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) million barrels per day
net tradepropaneethanenatural gasolinebutanes
forecast
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
net importsnet exports
forecast
0
25
50
75
100
125
Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020
monthly range from January 2014 - December 2018
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
U.S. commercial propane inventoriesmillion barrels
2.4
9.7
7.9
1.5
-4
0
4
8
12
16
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changebillion cubic feet per day
U.S. non-Gulf of Mexico U.S. Gulf of Mexiconet change
forecast
0
25
50
75
100
125
2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly history
monthly forecast
annual average
U.S. marketed natural gas production billion cubic feet per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
2.4
9.7
7.9
1.5
-4
0
4
8
12
16
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changebillion cubic feet per day
U.S. non-Gulf of Mexico U.S. Gulf of Mexiconet change
forecast
0
25
50
75
100
125
2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly history
monthly forecast
annual average
U.S. marketed natural gas production billion cubic feet per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
-0.7
7.8
2.10.2
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changebillion cubic feet per day
net changeindustrialelectric powerresidential and commercialother
forecast
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly historymonthly forecastannual average
U.S. natural gas consumption billion cubic feet per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
-0.7
7.8
2.10.2
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2017 2018 2019 2020
Components of annual changebillion cubic feet per day
net changeindustrialelectric powerresidential and commercialother
forecast
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2017 2018 2019 2020
monthly historymonthly forecastannual average
U.S. natural gas consumption billion cubic feet per day
U.S. annual energy expendituresshare of gross domestic product
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
forecast
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
total summer0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
April May June July August September
U.S. summer cooling degree dayspopulation-weighted
20172018201920202009-2018 average
warmer
cooler
Note: EIA calculations based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data. Projections reflect NOAA's 14-16 month outlook.Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
totalsummer
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
April May June July August September
U.S. summer cooling degree dayspopulation-weighted
20172018201920202009-2018 average
warmer
cooler
Note: EIA calculations based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data. Projections reflect NOAA's 14-16 month outlook.Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
total winter0
250
500
750
1,000
October November December January February March
2016/172017/182018/192019/202008-2018 average
U.S. winter heating degree dayspopulation-weighted
cooler
warmer
Note: EIA calculations based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
total winter0
250
500
750
1,000
October November December January February March
2016/172017/182018/192019/202008-2018 average
U.S. winter heating degree dayspopulation-weighted
cooler
warmer
Note: EIA calculations based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data. Projections reflect NOAA's 14-16 month outlook.
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2019
CA
NV
OR
WA
AZ
OK
KS
NE
SD
MN
IA
MO
IL
WI
MI
OHIN
KY
TN
ND
UT
ID
CO
WY
MT
NM
AR
AL
LA
MS
TX
FL
GA
SC
NC
VAWV
PA NJ
DEMD
NY
NH
ME
VT
MACT RI
AK
HI
NortheastWest
South
Midwest
East SouthCentraldivision
West SouthCentraldivision
PacificContiguous
division
Mountaindivision
West North Centraldivision
East North Centraldivision
SouthAtlanticdivision
PacificNoncontiguous
division
MiddleAtlanticdivision
NewEnglanddivision
U.S. Census regions and divisions
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook
EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. U.S. macroeconomic projections are based on the IHS Markit model of the U.S. Economy.
Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review
Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.
Table 2. Energy PricesU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Average for all sulfur contents.
(b) Average self-service cash price.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.
WTI and Brent crude oils, and Henry Hub natural gas spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Table 3a. International Petroleum and Other Liquids Production, Consumption, and InventoriesU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
- = no data availableOECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States.
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Congo (Brazzaville), Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia,
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
(b) Includes lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gain. Includes other unaccounted-for liquids.
(c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0109. Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics.
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply (million barrels per day)U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
- = no data available
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Congo (Brazzaville), Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia,
the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 20192018 2019 2020 Year
- = no data availableOPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Congo (Brazzaville), Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria (Africa); Ecuador and Venezuela (South America); Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (Middle East).
(a) Includes lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gain. Includes other unaccounted-for liquids.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate (a)Index, 2015 Q1 = 100 .................................................. 100.73 102.80 105.52 106.17 105.11 105.81 105.66 104.71 103.76 102.95 102.27 101.72 103.81 105.32 102.67Percent change from prior year .................................. -4.0 -0.7 3.4 3.7 4.3 2.9 0.1 -1.4 -1.3 -2.7 -3.2 -2.9 0.6 1.5 -2.5
Table 3d. World Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption (million barrels per day)U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
- = no data availableOECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States.
(a) Weighted geometric mean of real indices for various countries with weights equal to each country's share of world oil consumption in the base period. Exchange rate is measured in foreign currency per U.S. dollar. GDP and exchange rate data are from Oxford Economics, and oil consumption data are from EIA.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
(e) Renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels.
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and InventoriesU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
- = no data available
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
(c) Net imports equals gross imports minus gross exports.
(d) Crude oil adjustment balances supply and consumption and was previously referred to as "Unaccounted for Crude Oil."
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
(f) Petroleum products adjustment includes hydrogen/oxygenates/renewables/other hydrocarbons, motor gasoline blend components, and finished motor gasoline.
(g) "Other Oils" inludes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve
HC: Hydrocarbons
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Table 4b. U.S. Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) and Petroleum Refinery Balances (million barrels per day, except inventories and utilization factor)U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
- = no data available(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
U.S. Total ................................................ 239.6 240.3 239.7 246.3 236.1 232.3 222.3 235.5 234.5 229.5 224.1 236.9 246.3 235.5 236.9
Finished Gasoline Inventories
U.S. Total ................................................ 23.1 24.7 24.8 25.7 21.7 23.3 23.6 24.3 23.9 22.7 23.6 23.9 25.7 24.3 23.9
Gasoline Blending Components Inventories
U.S. Total ................................................ 216.5 215.6 214.9 220.5 214.4 209.0 198.6 211.2 210.6 206.8 200.5 213.0 220.5 211.2 213.0
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and InventoriesU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).
See “Petroleum for Administration Defense District” in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380;
Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and InventoriesU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
LNG: liquefied natural gas.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
- = no data available(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.
(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer to Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, Notes and Definitions (http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/notes.html) .
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
U.S. Average .................. 4.44 3.83 3.73 4.71 4.68 3.74 3.61 4.15 4.54 3.66 3.60 4.10 4.20 4.06 4.00
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
(Dollars per million Btu) .................... 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.08 2.09 2.13 2.10 2.11 2.13 2.14 2.12 2.12 2.06 2.11 2.13
Table 6. U.S. Coal Supply, Consumption, and InventoriesU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
- = no data available(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.
(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.
(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines and distribution points.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
(d) Direct Use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities
Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry OverviewU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
- = no data available. kWh = kilowatthours. Btu = British thermal units.
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.(a) Generation supplied by electricity-only and combined-heat-and-power (CHP) plants operated by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Generation supplied by CHP and electricity-only plants operated by businesses in the commercial and industrial sectors, primarily for onsite use.
(c) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error.
for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review .
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales (Million Kilowatthours per Day)U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
- = no data available(a) Total retail sales to all sectors includes residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector sales.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Retail Sales represents total retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
U.S. Average ........... 10.45 10.50 10.93 10.39 10.36 10.59 10.99 10.45 10.43 10.69 11.10 10.57 10.58 10.62 10.71
Table 7c. U.S. Regional Retail Electricity Prices (Cents per KilowatthourU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.(a) Volume-weighted average of retail prices to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Table 7d. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, All Sectors (Thousand megawatthours per day) U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Energy Information Administration Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual.Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
(a) Residual fuel oil, distillate fuel oil, petroleum coke, and other petroleum liquids.
(c) Conventional hydroelectric and pumped storage generation.
(d) Wind, biomass, geothermal, and solar generation.
Notes: Data reflect generation supplied by electricity-only and combined-heat-and-power (CHP) plants operated by electric utilities, independent power producers, and
the commercial and industrial sectors. The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Table 7e. U.S. Regional Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation, All SectorsU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Energy Information Administration Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual.Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
(a) Petroleum coke consumption converted from short tons to barrels by multiplying by five.
(b) Other petroleum liquids include jet fuel, kerosene, and waste oil.
Notes: Data reflect generation supplied by electricity-only and combined-heat-and-power (CHP) plants operated by electric utilities, independent power producers, and
the commercial and industrial sectors. Data include fuel consumed only for generation of electricity. Values do not include consumption by CHP plants for useful thermal output.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Physical Units: st/d = short tons per day; b/d = barrels per day; cf/d = cubic feet per day; mmb = million barrels.
(e) Solar consumption in the residential sector includes energy from small-scale (<1 MW) solar photovoltaic systems. Also includes solar heating consumption in all sectors.
Table 8a. U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226 and Renewable Energy Annual, DOE/EIA-0603; Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
- = no data available(a) Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.
(b) Solar consumption in the electric power, commercial, and industrial sectors includes energy produced from large scale (>1 MW) solar thermal and photovoltaic generators and small-scale (<1 MW) distributed solar photovoltaic systems.
(c) Municipal solid waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, sludge waste, agricultural byproducts, and other biomass.
(d) Losses and co-products from the production of fuel ethanol and biomass-based diesel
(f) Fuel ethanol and biomass-based diesel consumption in the transportation sector includes production, stock change, and imports less exports. Some biomass-based diesel may be consumed in the residential sector in heating oil.
Table 8b. U.S. Renewable Electricity Generation and CapacityU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
(d) Solar photovoltaic systems smaller than one megawatt, as measured in alternating current.Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: EIA-860M database, EIA-826 Solar PV database, and EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
-- = no data availableNotes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
(a) Power plants larger than or equal to one megawatt in size that are operated by electric utilities or independent power producers.
(b) Solar thermal and photovoltaic generating units at power plants larger than or equal to one megawatt.
(c) Businesses or individual households not primarily engaged in electric power production for sale to the public, whose generating capacity is at least
one megawatt (except for small-scale solar photovoltaic data, which consists of systems smaller than one megawatt).
Total Energy (c) .......................................... 1,366 1,231 1,329 1,342 1,373 1,187 1,295 1,309 1,357 1,180 1,286 1,295 5,268 5,164 5,118
SAAR = Seasonally-adjusted annual rate
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 EmissionsU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
and Federal Aviation Administration. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. U.S. macroeconomic projections are based on the IHS Markit model of the U.S. Economy.
- = no data available
(a) Fuel share weights of individual sector indices based on EIA Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey .
(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.
(c) Includes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data : Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration;
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic DataU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the IHS Markit model of the U.S. Economy.
- = no data availableNotes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
U.S. Average ............. 45 408 856 94 46 417 873 97 47 421 881 98 1,403 1,433 1,447
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather DataU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2019
2018 2019 2020 Year
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
Projections: Based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/DDdir/NHOME3.shtml).
- = no data availableNotes: Regional degree days for each period are calculated by EIA as contemporaneous period population-weighted averages of
state degree day data published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
See Change in Regional and U.S. Degree-Day Calculations (http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/special/pdf/2012_sp_04.pdf) for more information.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/) for a list of states in each region.
Appendix to the June 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook
Table a1. Summary of Estimated Petroleum and Other Liquids Quantities April 2019 May 2019 April 2019 –
May 2019 Average
April 2018 – May 2018 Average
2016 – 2018 Average
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids (million barrels per day)
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Production (a) 100.1 100.2 100.1 99.5 98.8 Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption (b) 99.9 99.7 99.8 99.0 98.4 Biofuels Production (c) 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.5 Biofuels Consumption (c) 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 Iran Liquid Fuels Production 3.3 3.0 3.1 4.7 4.5 Iran Liquid Fuels Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.8 Petroleum and Petroleum Products Produced and Consumed in Countries Other Than Iran (million barrels per day)
Production (d) 94.3 94.3 94.3 92.1 91.8 Consumption (d) 95.6 95.3 95.5 94.9 94.4 Production minus Consumption -1.4 -1.0 -1.2 -2.8 -2.6 World Inventory Net Withdrawals Including Iran -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 Estimated OECD Inventory Level (e) (million barrels) 2,864 2,902 2,883 2,813 2,960 Surplus Production Capacity (million barrels per day)
Note: The term “petroleum and other liquids” encompasses crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas liquids, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, and refinery processing gains, which are important to consider in concert due to the inter-related supply, demand, and price dynamics of petroleum, petroleum products, and related fuels. (a) Production includes crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gains. (b) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with “products supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109. Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel, and loss, and bunkering. (c) Biofuels production and consumption are based on EIA estimates as published in the International Energy Statistics. Biofuels production in the third quarter tends to be at its highest level in the year as ethanol production in Brazil reaches its seasonal peak and is typically lowest in the first quarter as seasonal production falls in the South/South-Central region of Brazil.
This appendix is prepared in fulfillment of section 1245(d)(4)(A) of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal
Year 2012, as amended. The law requires the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical
agency within the U.S. Department of Energy, to submit to Congress a report on the availability and price of petroleum and
petroleum products produced in countries other than Iran in the two-month period preceding the submission of the
report. By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S.
Government. The data in this appendix, therefore, should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department
of Energy or other federal agencies.
EIA consulted with the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the U.S. Department of State, and the intelligence community in
the process of developing the NDAA report, which was previously published as a stand-alone report. Detailed background
and contextual information not repeated here can be found in early editions of the NDAA report.
This appendix is published in the Short-Term Energy Outlook in even numbered months.
(d) Global production of petroleum and petroleum products outside of Iran is derived by subtracting biofuels production and Iran liquid fuels production from global liquid fuels production. The same method is used to calculate global consumption outside of Iran. (e) Estimated inventory level is for OECD countries only. (f) EIA defines surplus oil production capacity as potential oil production that could be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days, consistent with sound business practices. This does not include oil production increases that could not be sustained without degrading the future production capacity of a field. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Table a2. Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data Item April 2019 May 2019 April 2019 –
May 2019 Average
April 2018 – May 2018 Average
2016 – 2018 Average
Brent Front Month Futures Price ($ per barrel) 71.63 70.30 70.95 74.45 57.19 WTI Front Month Futures Price ($ per barrel) 63.87 60.87 62.34 68.20 53.07 Dubai Front Month Futures Price ($ per barrel) 71.20 69.85 70.51 71.62 55.04 Brent 1st - 13th Month Futures Spread ($ per barrel) 4.15 5.28 4.73 5.23 -0.56 WTI 1st - 13th Month Futures Spread ($ per barrel) 2.80 2.24 2.51 5.44 -0.92 RBOB Front Month Futures Price ($ per gallon) 2.04 1.98 2.01 2.12 1.65 Heating Oil Front Month Futures Price ($ per gallon) 2.06 2.03 2.05 2.15 1.71 RBOB - Brent Futures Crack Spread ($ per gallon) 0.33 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.29 Heating Oil - Brent Futures Crack Spread ($ per gallon) 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.35
(a) Brent refers to Brent crude oil traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). (b) WTI refers to West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), owned by Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group. (c) RBOB refers to reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending traded on the NYMEX. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME).