Short Range NWP Strategy of JMA and Research Activities at MRI Kazuo SAITO Meteorological Research Institute, [email protected]1. Operational mesoscale NWP at JMA 2. Recent developments for operation 3. Near future plans 4. Research activities in MRI IAMAS2005, 11 August 2005, Beijing
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Short Range NWP Strategy of JMA and Research Activities at MRI Kazuo SAITO Meteorological Research Institute, [email protected] 1. Operational mesoscale.
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Short Range NWP Strategy of JMA and Research Activities at MRI
• Model (Domain, Resolution, Dynamics, Physical processes)
• Initial condition (Analysis method, Data)
• Boundary condition
1m 10m 100m 1km 100km 1000km 10000km10km
second
month
week
day
hour
minute
year
turbulence
front
extra-tropical cyclone
planetary wave
thunder storm
Scale of atmospheric phenomena
micro scale
mesoscale
Macro scale
local wind
heavy rain
typhoon
cumulus conventional aerological observation -300 km, 2/day
conventional NWP model 6x = 100-200 km, 2-4/day
Synoptic forcing
Mesoscale NWP at JMA (March 2001-)
MSM•10 km L40, 3600 km x 2880 km, 18 hours forecast, 4 times a day• Hydrostatic spectral model (March 2001-August 2004)• Nonhydrostatic (September 2004-) nested with RSMRSM •20 km L40, 6480 km x 5120 km, 51 hours , 2 times a day•Hydrostatic spectral model, nested with GSM (60 km L40)
Period 2003 June 3 ~ 16 ( 2weeks 56 forecasts ) 10 km verification grid
Performance of MSM with TMI and SSM/I
Threat score
30 ゚ N
T0207( HALONG)
Observation
QuikSCAT
NASA
Assimilation of QuikSCAT SeaWinds July 2004 -
Threat scores 10km 30mm/3h, 3-19 June 2003
Precipitation FT=8-9. Initial: 12 UTC 18 July 2003
SeaWinds 10UTC 18 July 2003Ohashi (2004)
Non-hydrostatic MSM (JMA-NHM)September 2004-
Developed by joint work between MRI and NPD/JMA
HE-VI, stable computation with LF scheme t=40 secFully compressible, flux form 4th order advection with FCTDirect evaluation of buoyancy from density perturbation3-class bulk microphysics (water vapor, cloud water, rain, cloud ice, snow, graupel)Modified Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization schemeTargeted Moisture DiffusionBox-Lagrangian scheme for rain and graupel
Full paper submitted to M.W.R. (Saito et al., 2005)
Original K-F scheme. FT=12.
Modified K-F scheme. FT=12.
Observed 3 hour accumulated precipitation (mm) at 21 UTC.
Modification of the Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization
Several points (updraft property, trigger function, closure assumption) in the K-F scheme have been modified to prevent unnatural orographic rainfall and excessive stabilization . Submitted to MWR.
MSM NHM R/A
Case Study of Non-hydrostatic MSM
Hydrostatic MSM Radar-AMeDAS observation
Snowfall (13 January 2004, FT=18h)
Heavy rainfall event (18 July 2003, FT=15h)
Non-hydrostatic MSM
Performance of Non-hydrostatic MSM
Five-month total scores over forecast time 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18h against 3hourly rain analysis at 20 km grid
NH-MSM
MSM
Five-month total scores at FT=18h against analysis of height
Performance of JMA Mesoscale Model
Bias scores 10km 10mm/3hr
High bias scores in winter were removed by NHM
NHM
Without DPR wind FT=15
With DPR winds FT=15
Observation
Threat Scores for winter10mm/ 3hour
0.05
0.075
0.1
0.125
3 6 9 12 15 18
Forecast time [hour]
Threat Scores for summer
0.125
0.15
0.175
0.2
0.225
3 6 9 12 15 18
Forecast time[hour]
Assimilation of Doppler radar radial winds March 2005-
- 10kmL40 → 5km L50 (Mar. 2006)- 4 times a day → 8 times a day (Mar. 2006)- 33-hr forecast (Mar. 2007)
- 60kmL40 → 20kmL60 (Mar. 2007)- Twice a day → 4 times a day (Mar. 2007)- Supply latest B.C. to MSM directly
60km GSM 20km GSM Radar-AMeDAS 12-h rain
(19 Jun 2001 12UTC, FT=12)
20km (TL959) Global Model (2007-)
5 km L50, 3 hour assimilation windows
Incremental approach using a 10-km version of nonhydrostatic MSM for inner loop
Nonhyd r ostatic 4D-Var (2008-)
UL: Radar-AMeDAS 3-h rainUR: 12 hr forecast Meso 4DVarLL: Nonhydrostatic 4D-Var Initial time 12 UTC 17, July 2004
Honda et al. (2005)
4. Research activities at MRI• Model - Cloud resolving NWP model • Initial condition - GPS data, Direct assimilation of satellite data - Cloud resolving 4D-Var • Boundary condition - Global nonhydrostatic model
The CHAMP occultation data moisten the lower atmosphere and yield observed precipitation in MSM.
CNTL+CHAMP
FT=6
Initial 06UTC 16 July 2004
Seko et al. (2005)
Further activities MRI/JMA
• Asian THORPEX
• WWRP Beijing Olympic 2008 Forecast Demonstration Program /Research and Development Program
- participate in MEP component
Meso ensemble experiment for Niigata heavy rain in July 2004
03UTCObservation 00UTC 13 July 2004
Routine hydrostatic MSM prediction from 12UTC 12 July 2004
06UTC
FT=12 FT=15 FT=18
Downscale experiment of weekly ensemble prediction Initial 12 UTC 12 July 2004 T106 Global EPS
CONTROL
Member M03p
RA
control
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 10 20 30 40 50
コントロール
01p-12p
01m-12m
RA
M07m
M03p
RA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
コントロール
01p-12p
01m-12m
RA
Control
Precipitation in a rectangle over northern Japan 400×250km by Global EPS
FT=00-06
FT=
12-18
Mean precipitation extreme value
Only very weak rain in GSM
M03p
10 km MSM downscale experiment of EPS
10kmNHM Control
Member 'M03p'
FT=06 FT=18
RA
MARF
Control
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 10 20 30 40 50
コントロール01p-12p01m-12mm00m03p, m03pm00RAMARF
M03p
FT=00-06
FT=
12-18
Mean precipitation extreme value
RA
MARF
Control
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
コントロール01p-12p01m-12mm00m03p, m03pm00RAMARF
M03p
M07mM07m
Precipitation in a rectangle over northern Japan 400×250km by 10 km MSM downscale experiment of EPS
Location of precipitation is adjusted to south and line-shaped intense rain is reproduced
Downscaling experiment of the global EPS with MSM
FT=12 FT=15 FT=18
Observation 00UTC 13 July 2004 03UTC 06UTC
Summary
•JMA Mesoscale NWP started 2001. Several factors (model, initial and lateral boundary conditions) have been modified, and the performance has improved.
•Data assimilation of mesoscale data using variational method is the key factor.
•Significant improvement of GSM and RSM also contributed to MSM through the LBC.
•Further updates are scheduled in the operational system by 2008.
• Research and developments are underway to realize dynamical prediction of heavy rain.