Ship-Related Emissions and their Environmental Effects in YRD/Shanghai Yan Zhang Fudan University, Shanghai, China September 05, 2019 Shipping & Environment conference 2019, Gothenburg, Sweden
Ship-Related Emissions and their Environmental Effects in
YRD/Shanghai
Yan Zhang
Fudan University, Shanghai, China
September 05, 2019
Shipping & Environment conference 2019, Gothenburg, Sweden
Content
• Background and motivation
• Characteristics of shipping emissions
• Influence on air quality and Human Exposure
• Real-world signals observed before and after DECA
• Summary
• The YRD is home to 239.1 million people, accounting for 19 % of the total population of China
• YRD is with some of the largest ports in the world
Yangtze River Delta (YRD)/Shanghai, China
List of busiest container ports
Level in 2015Level in 2004
Data and figure source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_busiest_container_portsZhang et al., 2017, STOTEN
High-density Shipping Emissions in YRD, China
Fan and Zhang et al., 2016, ES&T
T h e Easte r n C h i na Se aaround YRD region has bothof high shipping emissionamount and emission density.
Geographical distribution of the modelled total PM 2.5 emissions from shipping in 2015( Johansson et al., 2017)
DECA 1.0, Dec., 2015 DECA 2.0, Dec., 2018
1. Separate to Detached Coastal ECA2. Designated ‘inland control areas’3. Hainan Province
UPDATED to
1. Characteristics of shipping emissions
What is the amount of the Shipping emission and its rank in anthropogenic sources?
YRD Shipping emissions in 2015 based on AIS
>60%
1/3
SO2,NOX and PM2.5by shipping were 2.2×105,4.7×105, and 2.7 ×104 ton/year,accounting for 7.4%,11.7% and 1.3% in all sources, respectively.
Shipping missions (ton/yr) SO2 NOx PM2.5 VOC
Inland shipping 3.3×104 9.2×104 0.40×104 0.27×104
Coastal shipping 1.6×104 2.9×104 0.18×104 0.067×104
Cargo Trucks+ Port Mach. 0.0 02×104 1.98×104 0.069×104 0.13×104
Per. of Inland shipping 11.8% 18.7% 3.6% 0.5%
Per. of Inland shipping 5.6% 5.8% 1.6% 0.1%
Per. of Inland shipping 0.01% 4.1% 0.65% 0.24%
Shipping Emissions in Local Shanghai Port
Container-Cargo trucks & in-port terminal equipment
Coastal shipsInland-water going ships
17% 28.6% 5.8% 0.84% Shipping in all sources:
2. Influence on air quality and Human Health
What is the impact on ambient air pollutants and human health of Shipping in YRD and Local Shanghai?
Simulation network by WRF-CMAQFour nested domains:• Domain 1 (81 km × 81 km): East-Asia and part of south-east Asia• Domain 2 (27 km × 27 km): East-China• Domain 3 (9 km × 9 km): the YRD region (offshore distance approximately 200 NM)• Domain 4 (1 km × 1 km): Shanghai (water area within the jurisdiction of Shanghai MSA)
Estimating burden of disease from air pollution: BenMAP-CE
Gridded Population Exposures
Premature
deathsHospitalizations
Minimum risk
exposure level
Exposure-response relationships
YRD Mortality/Hospitalization ratesChina CDC
Burden of Disease –Health Impacts
11
Impacts on ambient PM2.5 in inland
cities come from more distant
shipping emissions than SO2
• Shipping emissions from as far as 100
NM (busy north-south shipping lanes)
also contributed substantially of ship-
related PM2.5 concentrations for most
coastal YRD cities
Feng and Zhang et al., ACP, 2019
The influence of different offshore coastal areas in YRD:Still important within 100 nm
Shipping emissions on inland waters or within 12 NM of shore accounted for 30% to 85% of the total air quality impacts of ships within 200 NM of shore
PM2.5
Feng and Zhang et al., ACP, 2019
The influence of different ship-related sources in Shanghai port
• Inland-water ships had a larger influence on areas within Shanghai near the Yangtze River and Huangpu River
• The impact of Cargo trucks in January is evident Feng and Zhang et al., ACP, 2019
Influence of different offshore coastal areas in YRD on population-weighted PM2.5
• The highest ship-related
population-weighted PM2.5
concentrations were found
for Shanghai in June (2.6
μg/m3)
• largest contributions are all
coastal cities
Feng and Zhang et al., ACP, 2019
• Shipping within 12NM was a major
contributor to population-weighted
PM2.5 concentrations in 16 YRD cities,
accounted for 52.9% to
• Shipping emissions in 24-48 NM
accounted for 6.8% to 11.5% and ships
48-96 NM from shore accounted for
6.3% to 31.6%
Influence of different offshore coastal areas in YRD on population-weighted PM2.5 Feng and Zhang et al., ACP, 2019
3. Changing signals in real world observed by Field Measurements
What are “evidences” for the impact from shipping?
Peak Time by ATOFMS Vanadiumparticles
Totalparticles
Percent.Vanadium
2010/4/1 20:30 168 1095 15.34%
2010/4/9 9:30 35 679 5.15%
2010/4/21 4:00 399 760 52.5%
2010/4/22 2:00 48 675 7.11%
2012/4/3 4:30 207 2662 7.78%
2012/4/30 1:30 175 520 33.65%
2012/5/2 0:30 222 2150 10.33%
2012/6/28 7:30 347 1502 23.10%
2012/6/30 2:00 35 407 8.60%
2012/9/13 16:30 56 1031 5.43%
2012/9/14 3:00 78 1432 5.45%
Urban: Ship-plume episodes
Liu et al., 2017, EST
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
V Ni Ca Al Fe Si Na Zn
含量
(mg
kg-1
)
Port : Vanadium is a reliable
marker for HFO
Zhao and Zhang et al., 2013, AE
V and Ni
dominant in fine
particle in Port
Elements in HFO fuel samples:
Ratio of V and Ni around 3.0
Ambient V correlated
with ship traffic in port
Zhang et al., 2019 DOI:10.1021/acs.est.9b03315
LSFO Policy in Shanghai: HFO still dominant, ambient SO2 decreased, BUT…
2014
Aug
2014
Sep
2014
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Dec
2015
Feb
2015
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2015
Apr
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Sep
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Dec
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Jun
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Jul
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Aug
0
10
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30
Num
ber
fraction
V(%
)
(a) all V-containing particles
V-containing
particles increasing
Reduction in SO2 27-55%
Summary
• Regional and Local shipping emissions combine the impact: In the YRD,
shipping emissions affecting air quality were mainly within 12 NM of shore, but
Shipping as far as 100 NM from shore affected air pollutant concentrations on land;
In Shanghai, the inland-water going ships contributed a majority (40-80%) of all
shipping. SO2 decreased, while OC components increased after DECA.
• Implication for future policies: Extended ECA will promote more benefits. Ship
fuel and emissions standards for inland nearby water ships are especially important.
More comprehensive fuel oil policy including multiple-component control is
necessary for preventing air pollution from ship emissions in near future.
AcknowledgementJunlan Feng, Junri Zhao, Haidong Kan, Cong Liu,
Weichun Ma, Shanshan Wang, Fudan University
Allison Patton, Katherine Walker, HEALTH EFFECTS
INSTITUTE (HEI, USA)
Qingyan Fu, Yin Shen, SEMC, Shanghai
Jingyu An , Cheng Huang SAES, Shanghai
Freda Feng, NRDC
Dian Ding, Shuxiao Wang , Tsinghua University
The National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant no. 2016YFA060130X), the
National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 21677038) and HEI Research Foundation.
For more details:Zhang X, Zhang Y*, Liu Y, Zhao J, Zhou Y, Wang X, Yang X*, Changes in SO2 Level and PM2.5 Components in
Shanghai Driven by implementing the Ship Emission Control Policy. ES&T, (Acceped) DOI :10.1021/acs.est.9b03315
Feng, J., Zhang, Y.*, Li, S., Mao, J., Patton, A. P., Zhou, Y., Ma, W., Liu, C., Kan, H., Huang, C., An, J., Li, L.,
Shen, Y., Fu, Q., Wang, X., Liu, J., Wang, S., Ding, D., Cheng, J., Ge, W., Zhu, H., and Walker, K. , 2019: The
influence of spatiality on shipping emissions, air quality and potential human exposure in the Yangtze River
Delta/Shanghai, China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6167-6183, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6167-2019.
Zhang, Yan; Yang, Xin*, Brown, Richard; Yang, Liping; Morawska, Lidia*; Ristovski Zoran; Fu, Qingyan; Huang,
Cheng; 2017. Shipping emissions and their impacts on air quality in China. STOTEN, 186-198
Liu Zhanmin, Xiaohui Lu, Junlan Feng, Qianzhu Fan, Yan Zhang*and Xin Yang*, 2017.Influence of ship
emissions on urban air quality: a comprehensive study using highly time-resolved online measurements and
numerical simulation in Shanghai. ES&T, DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b03834.2017,202-211.
Fan Q, Zhang Y*, Ma W, Ma H, Feng J, Yu Q, Yang X, S K.W. Ng, Fu Q, and Chen L., 2016. Spatial and
seasonal dynamics of ship emissions over the Yangtze River Delta and East China Sea and their potential
environmental influence. ES&T,. DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b03965 [J]. (50):1322-1329
Zhao, M., Zhang Y*., Ma W., et al., 2013. Characteristics and ship traffic source identification of air pollutants in
China’s largest port. Atmospheric Environment, 64,277-286.
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