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Starts with a hypothetical yet credible condition, goal or requirement in 20xx
Includes the operational constants – people, information and things in time and space across PMESII-G. Political, Military, Economic, Informational, Infrastructure, Geophysical
Experts design backward from this scenario -- evolve in reverse -- finally arriving at 2015 and a set of initial conditions
Players execute these initial conditions forward in a wargame Shows systemic changes Can open strategic opportunities based on system dynamics
Typical simulation work-flow
Workshop 1 (1 day):Design Meeting
Identify key questions to build simulation around
Workshop 2(2-3 days):
Rev Ev Design
Identify initial conditions
Workshop 3(2-3 days)War game:
Develop and stress test new strategies and identify unintended consequences
Full Report:
Key findings & strategies
Our Process
Our approach accounts for complexity by:1.Exploring and exploiting conditions on an ongoing basis, and
2.Embedding the vision in the routine activities you perform every day.
FLORILANDIA CASE STUDY
Scenario Briefing: Florilandia background
Small hypothetical Latin American country of 8 million
Lacks good governance
Non oil growth rate low at 2% - hydrocarbons 50% down from 2000
Florilandia faces economic disaster if economy not revitalized
Credit rating downgraded and threat of debt default looms with potential currency collapse
Some trade unions are restless with wage freezes
National Social Revolutionary terrorist group threatens resumption of violence
Trade Unions
Opposition :Pro private sector
Government(Legislature)
Government(Executive)
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Florilandia Simulation
Private sector
President Ramón Robles; President of Petroflor; Minister of Energy and Mines
President of Congress; President of the Marxist Party
Mayor of Puerto Salinas ; Mayor of Azucena; former Minister of Energy and Mines; former Presidents (Norberto and Garcia)
Leader of the hydrocarbons industry Labor Union; Leader of the Federation of Unions (comprised of Transport Union, and the Union of Public Utility Workers)
President of Petrolera Internacional USAPresident of Petróleos Europeos
Media Editor of the Puerto (pro-opposition) ; VEA (pro government)
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
Map Confrontations and Build Coalitions
Leverage Coalitions Implement compliance plan
TEAMS TEAMS TEAMS
Group Tasks
As your assigned group, identify: What do you want to achieve? What is your stated objective?
What do you want others to do to achieve your goal?
What will you offer other parties to get them to your view point?
What will you threaten and / or promise the other parties to keep them to your view point?
Room allocations
Room 302: BLUE / AZULGovernment (Executive) - Al Elkins
Room 305: YELLOW / AMARILLOGovernment (Legislature) – Mary Crannell –