SFV REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS AND REALITIES: The Setting

SFV REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS AND REALITIES:

The Setting

Daniel Blake, DirectorSan Fernando Valley Economic Research Center

California State University

Northridge

SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge

Current Conditions

• The Valley’s Population was 1,816,000 on Jan 1, 2005.

• The Valley has about 600,000 Occupied Housing Units.

• Persons per Household averages just over 3 pph.

SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

An

nu

al C

ha

ng

eSFV Annual Population Change

+19,000/yr

SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Births

Deaths

SFV Births and Deaths

Natural Increase: 14,000/year

SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

SFV Net In-Migration

5,000+/yr

SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

Multiple Family

Single Family

SFV Multiple and Single Family Permits

Special projects in NH and WH

5,739 units

~4,000/yr

SFV Economic Research Center CSU NorthridgeSFV Economic Research Center

CSU Northridge

SFV New Residential Units Permitted 2000-2004: The Last Five Years

SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

SFV Median Home Prices

Previous Peak 1990: $240

1997 Trough: $160

1/3 Loss in 7 Years

Current: $600 Appreciation:

140% in 15 years

275% in 7 years

SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge

8.0%Single Family

42.5%Multiple Family

40.8%Single Family

RenterOccupied(50.5 %)

OwnerOccupied (49.5 %)

8.7%Multiple Family

SFV Owner versus Renter Occupied Units, 2005

Condominiums

The Other Half

SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

SFV Average Rent $894 $934 $987 $1,083 $1,148 $1,189 $1,249 $1,301 $1,363

% Change in Rent 3.2% 4.5% 5.7% 9.7% 6.0% 3.6% 5.0% 4.2% 4.8%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005e

SFV Average Rent in Large Complexes

SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005e

San Fernando Valley Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana

Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos

Rent Trends: SFV vs. Nearby MSAs

SFV rents bunched with those in LA and Ventura County

Riverside, San Brdo, & Ontario

SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge

SUMMARY

• Approximately 19,000 new residents/year• Approximately 4,000 new units/year• Marginal person per household: ~5 pph• 2000 population: 1,698,135• 2000 pop. density 5,868 persons/sq. mi.• 2005 population: 1,816,000• 2005 pop. density: 6,275 persons/sq. mi.• 2000-05 density change: 407 persons/sq. mi.• Housing and Infrastructure Support?