Setting the scene: The French and European Aviation Market

The French and European

aviation market

9th FrenchConnect – Disneyland® Paris

19 March 2012

Ralph Anker Editor

anna.aero [email protected]

2

What’s coming up …

• Developments in Europe 2010-2012

• France:

– French airport traffic development in 2011

– Leading country markets and airlines in S12 v S11

– Domestic market 2000-2012

• Inter-regional route stimulation by LCCs

– New French routes 2011 analysed

– Air France’s regional “hubs”

– New French routes 2012 analysed

• Europe:

– Comparison of airport growth across Europe in 2011

– International country-pair and domestic capacity S12 v S11

– GDP forecasts

• Conclusions

3

Developments in Europe 2010

• Lots of airlines made money despite rising fuel costs!

• Icelandic ash cloud caused problems in April

• Various countries affected by industrial action

– Airline strikes

– ATC strikes

– General strikes

• BA and Iberia merged to create IAG

• Aegean and Olympic did not merge

• No major airline failures

– Just a few niche carriers such as Athens Airways, Andalus Lineas

Aereas, Blue Wings, Hamburg International, Star1

4

Developments in Europe 2011

• No major flight disruptions due to natural phenomena

– Some disruption due to industrial action

• Lufthansa decides to sell bmi; IAG close to deal?

• Germany and Austria introduced additional air taxes

• Flybe launches Nordic operations

• “Arab spring”: Social unrest in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain

• Europe’s ‘legacy’ airlines struggle for profits

– Major LCCs still making decent money

• Ryanair opens bases in Gran Canaria, Tenerife, Lanzarote

& Manchester

• Frankfurt opens third runway

5

Developments in Europe 2012

• Aviation joins EU ETS in 2012

• Collapse of two significant European airlines in early 2012

– Malev (Hungary) & Spanair (Spain): who’s next?

• AirAsia X departs Europe, Hong Kong Airlines arrives

• Fuel prices remaining high – EU economy still struggling

• easyJet opens news bases in London Southend, Lisbon,

Nice and Toulouse

• Ryanair opens new bases in Billund, Budapest, Karlsruhe-

Baden, Palma de Mallorca and Paphos (‘50th’)

• First appearance of 787 in Europe (HND-FRA)

6

7

8

Largest French Airports: LCC impact

Airport Pax:11 % vly LCC:11 LCC% LCC “growth”

1 Nice 10.42m +8.5% 3.43m 33% +16.6%

2 Lyon 8.44m +5.7% 1.76m 21% +20.0%

3 Marseille 7.36m -2.1% 1.39m 19% -19.9%

4 Toulouse 6.99m +9.1% 1.61m 23% +32.5%

5 Basel-Mulhouse 5.05m +22.4% 2.61m 52% +33.2%

6 Bordeaux 4.11m +12.4% 0.98m 24% +28.9%

7 Paris Beauvais 3.68m +25.4% 3.68m 100% +25.4%

8 Nantes 3.25m +7.1% 0.71m 22% +8.3%

9 Montpellier 1.31m +11.3% 0.38m 29% +37.6%

10 Ajaccio 1.18m +5.5% 0.12m 10% -1.0%

Source: www.aeroport.fr

Paris CDG 60.97m +4.8% 5.43m 9% +13.0%

Paris ORY 27.14m +7.7% 6.45m 24% +10.3%

9

10

11

12

13

14

New French airport services Started operating between 1 January and 31 December 2011

Airport Routes Airlines included

1 Marseille 25 Air Corsica, Air France, Blue1, Iberia, jet4you,

Ryanair, Transavia.com

2 Paris CDG 21 Aegean Airlines, Air France, Camair-Co, CSA

Czech Airlines, easyJet, Sunwing, Vueling

3 Toulouse 16 Alitalia, easyJet, jet4you, Turkish, Vueling

4= Nantes 10 Air France, Eastern, easyJet, jet4you,

Smartwings, Transavia.com, Vueling

4= Nice 10 bmi, Jet2.com, Norwegian, SAS, Smartwings,

Spanair, Swiss, Transavia.com, Vueling

4= Paris Beauvais 10 Blue Air, Ryanair, Wizz Air

7 Paris Orly 8 AirAsia X, British Airways, easyJet, Vueling

8= Bordeaux 7 CSA, jet4you, Ryanair, TAP, Vueling

8= Montpellier 7 Air Arabia Maroc, Air France, Ryanair, Transavia

10 Lyon 5 Armavia, Chalair, easyJet, jet4you

15

New French airport routes Started operating between 1 January and 31 December 2011

• Total of 156 (171) new routes involving 31 (36) French

airports and 43 (42) airlines (2010 figures for comparison)

• Leading airlines:

– Air France 31 new routes; average 5.0 weekly flights (155)

– Ryanair 24 new routes; average 2.9 weekly flights (70)

– Vueling 16 new routes; average 4.3 weekly flights (68)

– easyJet 10 new routes; average 6.5 weekly flights (65)

• Leading country markets (37 countries got new routes)

– France 22 new routes (11 routes double-counted)

– Italy 21 new routes

– UK 20 new routes

– Spain 17 new routes

– Morocco 14 new routes

Air France’s regional hubs

16

Marseille Toulouse Nice

October 2011 April 2012 April 2012

Athens (4) Athens (4) Athens (3)

Basel (7) Berlin Tegel (4) Naples (2) v easyJet

Beirut (3) Casablanca (3) v RAM Tel Aviv (3) v Israir

Biarritz (2) Hamburg (5) Venice (3) v easyJet

Brest (7) v Ryanair Istanbul IST (3) v Turkish AL

Casablanca (4) v RAM Malaga (3) v Vueling

Copenhagen (2) Malta (2)

Dusseldorf (7) Marrakech (2) v RAM

Eindhoven (3) v Ryanair Naples (2)

Istanbul IST (4) Prague (5)

Moscow SVO (4) Seville (4) v Iberia

Milan MXP (14) v Ryanair (BGY) Tunis (4) v Tunisair

Prague (2) Venice (3) v easyJet, Vueling

Vienna (4)

March 2012

Barcelona (2) v Vueling

Hamburg (4) Not starting Not starting

Marrakech (3) v RAM, Ryanair Brussels v Brussels AL, easyJet Barcelona v easyJet, IB, Vueling

Venice (5) Geneva v easyJet Istanbul v Turkish AL

17

New French airport services Planned to start between 1 January and 31 December 2012

Airport Routes Airlines included

1 Toulouse 23 Air France (15), easyJet (7), Jet2.oom

2 Nice 21 Air France (4), British Airways, easyJet (7),

Jetairfly, Norwegian, SAS, Skywork, Swiss, Vueling

3 Marseille 14 Air France (5), Norwegian, Ryanair (7), Vueling

4= Paris CDG 10 10 different airlines!

4= Paris Orly 10 easyJet, Norwegian, Transavia.com, Vueling

6 Lyon 9 Air France, Camair-Co, easyJet, Lufthansa, Vueling

7 Nantes 8 Air France, easyJet, Vueling

8= Bordeaux 7 Air France, easyJet, Ryanair, Volotea, Vueling

8= Figari 7 Air Corsica, Air France, Skywork

8= Paris Beauvais 7 Ryanair, Wizz Air

18

New French airport routes Planned to start between 1 January and 31 December 2012

• Total of 167 (156) new routes involving 41 (31) French

airports and 30 (43) airlines (2011 figures for comparison)

• Leading airlines:

– Air France 55 new routes; average 2.1 weekly flights (116)

– Ryanair 25 new routes; average 3.4 weekly flights (84)

– easyJet 24 new routes; average 3.6 weekly flights (86)

– Vueling 17 new routes; average 3.5 weekly flights (59)

• Leading country markets (33 countries to get new routes)

– France 42 new routes (21 routes double-counted)

– Spain 22 new routes

– Italy 20 new routes

– UK 17 new routes

– Germany 9 new routes

19

LCCs still growing in 2011

pax up 5.1% to 76.4 million

pax up 11.6% to 55.5 million

pax up 20.5% to 15.7 million

pax up 11.6% to 12.3 million

pax up 32.2% to 11.3 million

pax up 15.0% to 11.2 million

pax down 2.7% to 7.5 million

Top 7 European airlines in 2011 (by passengers):

1 – Ryanair (76.4m), 2 – Lufthansa (63.0m), 3 – easyJet (55.5m), 4 – Air

France (49.7m), 5 – airberlin (35.3m), 6 – British Airways (34.0m), 7 -

Turkish Airlines (31.5m)

20

Comparison across Europe Versus Germany, Italy, Spain and UK (2011)

Country Airport pax % vly >1m*

UK 222.3m +4.1% 21

Spain 204.4m +6.0% 24

Germany 199.2m +4.8% 18

France** 152.9m +6.6% 16

Italy 148.5m +6.4% 23

*Number of airports with more than 1 million annual passengers

**Includes Basle-Mulhouse (BSL) airport. Excluding BSL, Italy would now be ahead of France (147.9m)

Source: UK CAA, ADV, Aena, www.aeroport.fr, Assaeroporti

21

Europe’s fastest growing /

shrinking airports in 2011

22

Airport growth Airport decline

Rimini (RMI) 66.8% Venice Treviso (TSF) -49.9%

Perugia (PEG) 58.5% Forli (FRL) -46.1%

Maastricht (MST) 40.7% Girona (GRO) -38.2%

Oulu (OUL) 39.1% Lübeck (LBC) -36.0%

Tallinn (TLL) 38.2% Newquay (NQY) -26.5%

Nador (NDR) 29.5% Glasgow Prestwick (PIK) -21.9%

Rovaniemi (RVN) 28.1% Bournemouth (BOH) -18.3%

Brindisi (BDS) 28.1% Pamplona (PNA) -18.2%

Gaziantep (GZT) 25.9% Kiruna (KRN) -17.8%

Paris Beauvais (BVA) 25.4% Alexandroupolis (AXD) -17.5%

23

24

25

26

Conclusions

• Paris airports (BVA, CDG, ORY) account for only 25% of

new French routes (39/156) in 2011 down from 30% in

2010. In 2012 (so far) Paris airports account for less than

20% of new French routes (27/167).

• Capacity analysis indicates growth in Europe this summer

but GDP forecasts suggest flat/declining economy.

• Consistently high fuel prices (and worker relations?) will

challenge airline profitability in 2012.

27

Thank you!

To keep in touch with all the latest European airline

route network news and analysis sign up now for your

FREE weekly e-newsletter at

www.anna.aero

If your competitors are reading it (and they are!)

shouldn’t you see what they know that you don’t?

28

Thank you!