Ses Oxford Lecture

THREAT OR CHALLENGE

For more than six days Earth has been our friend in the lunar skies. That fragile piece of blue with its ancient rafts of life will continue to be man's home as he journeys ever farther in the solar system.

Apollo 17, December 14, 1972

CLIMATE DESTABILISATION

Opportunity or Threat.......

1. Is there a real problem?2. Is it man made?3. Can we do anything about

it?

1. ‘Global’ Risk Management

Is there a

problem?

“action”

Yes No

False

• Economic harm

• Happy• No cost

True

• Economic harm but worthwhile

• Global disasters

• Political• Social• Public health• Economic

Opportunity or Threat.......

1. Is there a real problem?2. Is it man made?3. Can we do anything about

it?

Question of Sustainability

IPCC says 90% chance that global warming caused by human activity

Population rising 200,000 per day

Global economy energy demands rising

Manufacturing going East

West’s thirst for consumerism going East too

› If the world consumed like Europe does we would need another 3 earths to dispose of the waste

› American consumes x35 more than an Indian

Very few apparent solutions and very little being done about it

21001800

2008

2050

1900 2000

5

10

Bill

ion

s

Philosophy, Moral Values

Economics, Politics

Energy Cycle

Carbon Cycle

Opportunity or Threat.......

1. Is there a real problem?2. Is it man made?3. Can we do anything about

it?

Biosphere

Subterranean

Atmosphere

CO2

CxHy

Biological process

Biosphere

Subterranean

CARBON CYCLE

Biological process

CO2

CxHy

Chemical process

Biological process

Biosphere

Subterranean

CARBON CYCLE

Biological process

Sequestering

CO2

CxHySequestering

Chemical process

Biological process

Biosphere

SubterraneanFossil fuel

CARBON CYCLE

Biological process

(Chemical process)

In summary The biosphere

is immensely energy rich

is very fragile

recent human activity is a serious threat to it

a ‘closed system’ with regard to carbon

Carbon dioxide is a massive pollutant

CO2

CxHySequestering

Chemical process

Biological process

Biosphere

SubterraneanFossil fuel

CARBON CYCLE

Biological process

(Chemical process)

Carbon Cycle Framework

As part of the biosphere we are all CO2 emitters, including plants

Inevitable and natural just like every other species

Homo sapiens digging up locked up C from the ground which is the residue of eons of history

World imperatives must be to modify our use of fossil fuels, particularly coal

Use what we need to use wisely

1

Chemical Engineering

O2

CO2

C CxHY

CO2 + H20

O2

Chemical Engineering

O2

CO2

C CxHY

CO2 + H20

O2

Hydrocarbons

O2

CO2

C CxHY

CO2 + H20

O2

Carbon

O2

CO2

C CxHY

CO2 + H20

O2

2

Fuels

Processes

Storage options

CO2 capture and storage system

Geological storage

Storage prospectivity

Highly prospective sedimentary basins

Prospective sedimentary basins

Non-prospective sedimentary basins, metamorphic and igneous rock

Data quality and availability vary among regions

Geological storage

Temperance

1. Reduction2. Reuse3. Recycling and composting4. Energy recovery5. Landfill with energy6. Landfill

Waste Hierarchy

3

Temperance

What makes us happy? What makes us “well

beings”

Adair Turner - GDP

Level 1: freedom from:

hunger physical

insecurity drudgery

Level 2: wealth consumption disposability time poverty ????

Increasing GDP beyond L1 doesn’t work

Ha

pp

ine

ss

Prosperity

L1

L2

In Summary1. A big picture

2. What is this world that we are custodians of?

3. What do we want energy for?

4. The inevitable role of carbon?

5. How we can curb our energy use and be successful custodians

Links• www.bigpictureviewofclimatechange.co

m• email: [email protected]• http://www.wonderingmind42.com• http://www.ipcc.ch• http://onehundredmonths.org/

Books• Do Good Lives Have to Cost the Earth?• An Inconvenient Truth• Ethics of Climate Change• A Green New Deal

Became a climate watcher 20 months ago

The world was waking me up to the problem but

The world was still unable to act collectively and decisively.

Now I see climate change as:

An opportunity to:

mitigate a threat

consider how we have to exist:

more responsibly on a planet

which is not infinite.

1. Management

2. Philosophy

3. Economics

4. Demography

5. Chemistry

6. Geology

7. Biology

8. Oceanography

9. Climate

Science

10. Engineering

11. Politics

1. ‘Global’ Risk Management

CDMan-

made?

“action”

Yes No

False

• Economic harm

• Happy

True

• Economic harm but worthwhile

• Global disasters

• Political• Social• Public health• Economic

Current Big Picture

IPCC says 90% chance that global warming caused by human activity

Population rising 200,000 per day

Global economy energy demands rising

Emissions rising

Manufacturing going East

West’s thirst for consumerism going East too

› If the world consumed like Europe does we would need another 3 earths to dispose of the waste

Very few solutions

“We can only perform this experiment once”

Current Big Picture

IPCC says 90% chance that global warming caused by human activity

CIA Fact book says world population is rising at >200,000 per day

Global economy energy demands rising

Manufacturing going East

West’s thirst for consumerism going East too

› If the world consumed like Europe does we would need another 3 earths to dispose of the waste

8. Oceanography, Climate Science

The natural carbon sink The Conveyor Belt

Threatened by the polar ice-cap melt

If it stops CO2 released from sea

Frozen Tundra Threatened by the

polar ice-cap melt Methane released

from frozen lakes

Philosophy, Moral Values

Economics, Politics

Energy Cycle

Carbon Cycle

• Happiness• Greed• Succession• Waste

• Incentives rather than

• prohibition• Renewable

Alternatives• Transport• Space Heating• Food• Manufacturing• Electricity

• Bigger view of C cycle

• Better use of bio processes

• Extraction vs emission

What can we do?

Understand the real problem Draw up a series of measures

which are : Effective, by directly addressing

the problem Practical, where control can be

practically applied Work well together Measurable and incentivisable Do not obfuscate Do a few things really well

From Here?

UNDERSTAND THE PROBLEM Try applying the framework to

› Your actions

› Others’ actions and recommendations

Look for the few things that will work for all

When materialism is rife, I shall incarnate myself Shri Krishna

The creation is telling us to act and our intelligence can say how

3. Chemistry, Geology

Back to principle

Carbon

› A brilliant resource

› CO2 and HCs not an obvious pollutant, but it has a massive effect

Compiling a ‘big view’ of the carbon cycle

› Lots of talk about aspects of the problem

› Lots of polemic

› Where’s the big picture and solution?

O2

CO2 + H2O

C CxH2x+2

“The search for truth is in one way hard and in another easy.  For it is evident that no one can master it fully, nor miss it wholly.  But each adds a little to our knowledge of Nature, and from all the facts assembled there arises a certain grandeur.”

Aristotle

Al Gore

Excellent wake up call 300pp of problem and 16

pp of solutions Politically this has started

to work Coherent and acceptable

strategies needed

Al Gore’s recipe

At Home:› Low energy

Lighting Appliances

› Heating› Insulation› Home energy audit› Heat water sparingly› Switch to green

power› Reuse› Waste management

Outside the home› Reduce driving› Mpg› Biofuels› Telecommute› Reduce air travel› Carbon offsets

Do these stand up to scrutiny?

Where are these emissions?

Energy Total› Power 24 24› Industry 14 38› Transport 14 52› Buildings 8 60› Other 5 65

Non Energy› Land use 18 18› Agriculture 14 32› Waste 3 35

Stern Review

THREAT OR CHALLENGE

For more than six days Earth has been our friend in the lunar skies. That fragile piece of blue with its ancient rafts of life will continue to be man's home as he journeys ever farther in the solar system.

Apollo 17, December 14, 1972

CLIMATE DESTABILISATION