Sergey Pulinets 1,2 1 Space Research Institute, RAS 2 Fiodorov Institute of Applied Geophysics, Roshydromet Russia.

Sergey PulinetsSergey Pulinets1,21,2

11Space Research Institute, RASSpace Research Institute, RAS22Fiodorov Institute of Applied Geophysics, RoshydrometFiodorov Institute of Applied Geophysics, Roshydromet

RussiaRussia

*What experimental data and physical hypothesis What experimental data and physical hypothesis stimulated researchstimulated research

*Natural phenomena and anthropogenic effects – Natural phenomena and anthropogenic effects – main contributors to the conceptionmain contributors to the conception

*LAIC model as a wholeLAIC model as a whole

*Coupling with seismologyCoupling with seismology

*Multiparameter synergy – is the main precursorMultiparameter synergy – is the main precursor

*What we lack and what we expect from futureWhat we lack and what we expect from future

Hoppel et al., 1986

King et al., King et al., 19931993 Spivak, Spivak, 20020099

S.A. Pulinets, V.V. Khegai, K.A. Boyarchuk, A.M. Lomonosov, Atmospheric Electric field as a Source of Ionospheric Variability, Physics-Uspekhi, 41, 19981998, No 5, pp. 515-522

Pulinets S. A., K.A.Boyarchuk, V.V.Hegai, V.P.Kim and A.M.Lomonosov, Quasielectrostatic Model of Atmosphere-Thermosphere-Ionosphere Coupling, Adv. Space Res., 20002000, 26, No 8, pp.1209-1218

Eresmaa, 2006

Mareev, 2010

Kirkby, 2008

70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

130000

140000

150000

160000

170000

180000

190000

200000

IGRF-2005

http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap060814.html

Osprey et al., 2009

Hoppel et al., 1986

Fastrup et al., 2000

Fastrup et al., CLOUD proposal, 2000

Faults activation – permeability changesFaults activation – permeability changesGas discharges including radonGas discharges including radon

emanationemanation

Air ionization by Air ionization by -particles –-particles –product of radon decayproduct of radon decay

Ion-Induced NucleationIon-Induced NucleationHumidity dropHumidity drop

Latent heat releaseLatent heat release

Air temperature growthAir temperature growth

Air conductivity changeAir conductivity change

Atmospheric electricAtmospheric electricfield growthfield growth

Electric field effects Electric field effects within the ionospherewithin the ionosphereEarthquake clouds formationEarthquake clouds formation

Convective ions uplift, charge Convective ions uplift, charge separation, drift in anomalous EFseparation, drift in anomalous EF

OLR anomaliesOLR anomalies

Air pressure dropAir pressure drop

Jet-streamsJet-streams

Field-aligned irregularitiesField-aligned irregularities in magnetospherein magnetosphere

VLF noises trapping, VLF noises trapping, cyclotron interactioncyclotron interactionParticle precipitationParticle precipitation

Кобе, ЯпонияКобе, Япония10 янв. 199510 янв. 1995

Копала, МексикаКопала, Мексика14 сент. 199514 сент. 1995

Typical radon variations TurkeyTypical radon variations Turkey

L'Aquila, ItalyL'Aquila, ItalyApril 6, 2009April 6, 2009

Jan 18, 2001

Jan 19, 2001 Jan 20, 2001 Jan 21, 2001 Jan 22, 2001

Jan 17, 2001Gujarat Earthquake (India); Date-Time 2001 01 26

23:40:30 UTC, Location 23.40N 70.32E; Depth 23.6.0 Km; Magnitude 7.7 (USGS NEIC)

Ouzounov and Freund, 2004

Anomalous latent heatDynamics around the time ofM8.8 Southern SumatraEarthquake Sept. 12 2007

Latent heat constant is 2400 J/gAt the same time to increase the temperature of 1 m3 of airby 1 C is necessary only 200 J. It means that condensationcan significantly to increase the air temperature.

Ionization + hydration effectiveness depends on the number of water molecules whichare attached to one ion. For the particle of 3 μ size the relationship of thermal energy released to energy necessary to ionize the air gas molecule (15-20 eV) is near 101088

Basing on 3 different sources: Segovia et al, 2005; Inan et al., 2008, and Spivak, 2008 the mean radon activity can be estimated as 2000 Bq/m3. Each -particle emitted by 222Rn with the average energy of E=5.46 MeV can produce ~ 3105 electron-ion pairs what gives the ions production rate ~6108 m-3s-1.

~ 8 W/m~ 8 W/m22

Param Magnitude Comments

EQ 4.3 x 1018 J - 5.5 x 1017 J M ~ 9.3 earthquake, and 8.7, respectivelyM ~ 9.3 earthquake, and 8.7, respectively

ELH

3.1 x 103.1 x 1019 19 - 8 x 10- 8 x 1018 18 JJ

Latent heat anomalies of ~ 80 WmLatent heat anomalies of ~ 80 Wm-2 -2

persisting for 5 days, over six, 200 km x 200 persisting for 5 days, over six, 200 km x 200 km grids; and ~ 100 Wmkm grids; and ~ 100 Wm-2 -2 persisting for 10 persisting for 10 days, over nine, 200 km x 200 km grids, days, over nine, 200 km x 200 km grids, respectively for the 8.7 and 9.3 associated respectively for the 8.7 and 9.3 associated

anomalies, respectivelyanomalies, respectively

ETS <1.5 x 1017 - 5 x 1017 JKE of tsunami for 30-100 kmKE of tsunami for 30-100 km3 3 displaced displaced water (probably an upper limit)water (probably an upper limit)

EM < 5 x 1019 JFrom yield strength & molecular binding From yield strength & molecular binding forces involved in rupture of landforces involved in rupture of land

ER 6x 1018 J

From change of rotational energy of the From change of rotational energy of the EarthEarth

1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 2 0 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0S e p t e m b e r - O c t o b e r 2 0 0 5

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

Dai

ly m

inim

um

rel

ativ

e h

um

idit

yIs

lam

abad

(%

)

M7.6, Oct 8 2005

(a)(a)Relative humidity drop; Relative humidity drop; (b)(b)Surface temperature by the MODIS dataSurface temperature by the MODIS data, , AQUA satelliteAQUA satellite;; (c)(c) Anomalous latent heat fluxAnomalous latent heat flux;;(d)(d)OLR anomaly one week before the seismic shock; OLR anomaly one week before the seismic shock; (e)(e)GPS/TEC GPS/TEC anomalyanomaly

Bondur,2006

Kashmir earthquake October 8, 2005Kashmir earthquake October 8, 2005

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 5 10 15 20 25 2 7 12 17 22 27 1 6 11 16 21 26

0

4

8

Mag

nitu

de

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Rn

[co

unts

]

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 5 10 15 20 25 2 7 12 17 22 27 1 6 11 16 21 26 1

-0 .2

0

0.2

0.4

Te

mp

chan

ge [C

]

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 5 10 15 20 25 2 7 12 17 22 27 1 6 11 16 21 26 1

-2

0

2

OLR

cha

nge

, W

/m^2

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 5 10 15 20 25 2 7 12 17 22 27 1 6 11 16 21 26 1D ays, Jan 1- A pril 30, 2009

120000

125000

130000

135000

140000

145000

15000020

0

F ig.2C LR O LR _daytim e

N C E P_A ir_Tem p

R n_Stat_trend_C oppito

R aw _R n_C oppito

S eism ic itty

A ir_Tem p_R ange_R ie ti

+2s igm a_C LR O LR

-2sigm a_C LR O LR

+2sigm a_N C EP _A ir_Tem p

-2sigm a_N C EP_A ir_Tem p

O LR anom aly

N CEP A ir Tem perature

R aw Rn data

S tatistica l trend

Seism icity

A ir Tem p R ange (M AX-M IN )

+2sigma

+2sigma

-2sigma

-2sigma

L’Aquila, ItalyL’Aquila, Italy, 06.04.2009, 06.04.2009

Tertyshnikov et al. 2009

Geophysical Parameter SensorSensor name Spatial Temporal Advantages - DaysSurface temperature (land and

sea)Sat Polar orbit: AVHRR ,

EOS MODIS, ASTER

90 m-5km1-2days long historic record, high spatial resolution

5-10

Meteorological information Geosynchronous: GOES, METEOSAT

1-4km 20min-1h high temporal resolution

4-7

Long Wave Radiation Sat NOAA AVHRR14,14,15,17,18

1 degree Twice per day

Global pre seismic indicator for major events

30-5

Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF)

Sat NCEP 2 degree Once per day

coastal strong earthquakes

15-4

Ionospheric perturbations EM waves (VLF) and plasma

parameters

Sat DEMETER -- 1 day Low atmospheric disturbances

6-2

Space weather Sat NOAA - - Kp DstEQ catalog, Deformation maps

Grd USGS - EQ catalog stress maps

Aerosol contents Grd AERONET Vary Hourly High temporal resolution

7-4

GPS/ Total Electron Content Grd GPS Vary Hourly 5-3 Radon concentrations Grd Turkey, Israel Vary Hourly 14-3Air Temperate/ Relative

HumidityGrd Meteorological networkVary Hourly 14-3

Atmospheric & Ground E field Grd Taiwan, CA, Mexico Vary Hourly 5-2Magnetic filed Grd CA, Israel, Taiwan Vary Hourly 4-2

Courtesy of Anagnastopulos, 2011

OLR anomalyOLR anomaly GPS TEC anomalyGPS TEC anomaly

a = 100.414M – 1.696 km Dobrovolsky et al., 1989 = 100.43M km Dobrovolsky et al., 1979

l(M0) = exp(M0 – c) + 2 Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990

= 10 AE1/2 Bowman et al., 1998

Magnitude 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Earthquake preparation zone radius (km)

19.5 52.5 141 380 1022 2754 7413

M7.1- 19M7.1- 19 Oct, 2008; M6.3 – 22Oct, 2008; M6.3 – 22 Oct, 2008Oct, 20081-4 October 2008 5-8 October 2008

M Rand1

Rand2

> 4.8 > 5. > 5.5 > 6.

All 21.3(15498)

23.8(5954)

24.2(6026)

24.7(3502)

25.2(943)

25.7(279)

Sea 23.9(4114)

25.4(2666)

30.5(1797)

30.4(1097)

30.9(301)

31.4(76)

Land 18.7(4956)

21.5(2551)

20.0(2001)

20.5(1157)

21.6(314)

22.7(98)

Ratio between the number of perturbations with T > 2 and the total

number of cases for the 15 days before an EQ

Scholz et al., Science, 1973

PhenomenologyPhenomenology Physical modelPhysical model

Specific Specific featuresfeatures

Precursor maskPrecursor mask

Statistic Statistic validationvalidation

Practical Practical applicationapplication

NCEP surfaceNCEP surface temperaturetemperature

Latent heatLatent heat

OLR AnomalyOLR Anomaly

Ionospheric anomalyIonospheric anomaly

Epicenter positionEpicenter position

Time of earthquake determinationTime of earthquake determination

MM=[log(900)]/0.43 = 6.9=[log(900)]/0.43 = 6.9

Irpinia, ItalyIrpinia, Italy, 23 , 23 Nov. 1980, M6.9Nov. 1980, M6.9

Magnitude estimationMagnitude estimation

= 100.43M km Dobrovolsky et al., 1979

*Atmospheric and ionospheric effects are intrinsic factors of earthquake preparation process together with activation of tectonic processes

*LAIC can be used as a foundation for the complex multiparameter technique for the short-term earthquake warning

*Special service should be organized for the global multiparameter monitoring