Indices 1st 30th Change August August in (%) 2019 2019 The Stock Market Performance During August 2019. Sensex 37,018.32 37,332.79 0.85 MIDCAP 13,526.52 13,467.55 -0.44 SMLCAP 12,551.94 12,534.70 -0.14 BSE-100 11,077.33 11,139.78 0.56 BSE-200 4,578.93 4,609.05 0.66 BSE-500 14,152.74 14,234.07 0.57 Registered - R.N.I. No.: MAHENG/2007/19802 • Postal Regd. No.: MCN/72/2019-2021 • Posted at Mumbai Patrika Channel Sorting Office, GPO, Mumbai on 9th & 10th of every month. Volume 13, Issue 9 September, 2019 A Monthly Publication from Wiseinvest Advisors Private Limited Price ` 2 Inside Pg No. “Wealthwise” is a monthly publication brought to you by Wiseinvest Advisors, which is a quality investment advisory firm that specializes in mutual funds. Our CEO, Hemant Rustagi, is a well known personal finance expert. He brings with him an experience of around 30 years in this field. He regularly writes articles for major national dailies and business magazines as well as appears as a personal finance expert on many investments related TV shows. Besides, our team of advisors has professionals who have spent years in the mutual fund industry. In the last fourteen years, thousands of our clients have benefitted from our quality advice and have made mutual funds as the mainstay of their portfolio. You can benefit too from our expertise for your existing as well as new investments. All you need to do is to just call up any of the offices or email your requirements at [email protected]and our professional advisors will do the rest. Wealthwise Address to be affixed here Dear Investor, Finance minister announced a slew of measures on 23rd August 2019 to boost economic growth. In a much-needed relief to the FPIs, the government withdrew the enhanced surcharge on foreign investors. It came along with a host of other measures related with angel tax, bank recapitalisation and income tax notices. Further, it was announced that an amount of ` 70,000 crore budgeted for bank recapitalization plan will be released upfront. For the auto sector, depreciation has been doubled to 30 per cent for vehicles purchased by 31st March 2020 and the ban on government departments to buy new vehicles has been lifted. To boost consumption, banks have decided to cut interest rates which will lead to lower EMIs for home, auto and other loans. This was followed by the government decision to allow 100 per cent foreign investment in coal mining and contract manufacturing, ease sourcing norms for single-brand retailers and 26 per cent overseas investment in digital media. Finance Minister also unveiled a mega merger plan for Public Sector Banks (PSBs), amalgamating 10 banks into 4 in order to revive and revitalise the banking sector with the objective of achieving the $5-trillion economy target. The consolidation will bring down the total number of public sector banks in the country to 12 from 27. While these positive measures demonstrate that government is responsive to the need of rejuvenating the economy, there are indications that slowdown in the economy has deepened further. India's GDP growth decelerated to a more than six-year low at 5% in the June quarter of 2019-20, against 5.8% in the March quarter. Manufacturing growth has almost collapsed at 0.6% in the June quarter, against 12.1 % in Q1 2018-19. Market valuations are near longer term average. In fact, many sectors and stocks are trading below their long-term valuation multiples. Considering that interest rates are declining, liquidity is improving, oil prices are stable and more announcements are expected from finance minister to revive the economy, we expect the market to recover in the second half of the current financial year. Warm regards, Hemant Rustagi Editor 5 Market Outlook (Fixed Income) 4 Performance Of Select Funds 2-3 The Importance Of ‘First Principles' When Investing In Debt Mutual Funds 6 Equity Market Outlook If undelivered, please return to: Wiseinvest Advisors Pvt. Ltd. 602, 6th Floor, Sri Krishna Complex, Opposite Laxmi Industrial Estate, New Link Road, Andheri (W), Mumbai 400 053. Tel : 2673 2671 / 2673 2676
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Indices 1st 30th Change
August August in (%)
2019 2019
The Stock MarketPerformanceDuring August 2019.
Sensex 37,018.32 37,332.79 0.85
MIDCAP 13,526.52 13,467.55 -0.44
SMLCAP 12,551.94 12,534.70 -0.14
BSE-100 11,077.33 11,139.78 0.56
BSE-200 4,578.93 4,609.05 0.66
BSE-500 14,152.74 14,234.07 0.57
Registered - R.N.I. No.: MAHENG/2007/19802 • Postal Regd. No.: MCN/72/2019-2021 • Posted at Mumbai Patrika Channel Sorting Office, GPO, Mumbai on 9th & 10th of every month.
Volume 13, Issue 9
September, 2019
A Month ly Publ icat ion f rom Wiseinvest Advisors Private Limited
Price ` 2
Inside Pg No.
“Wealthwise” is a monthly publication brought to you by Wiseinvest Advisors, which is a quality investment advisory firm that specializes in mutual funds. Our CEO, Hemant Rustagi, is a well known personal finance expert. He brings with him an experience of around 30 years in this field. He regularly writes articles for major national dailies and business magazines as well as appears as a personal finance expert on many investments related TV shows. Besides, our team of advisors has professionals who have spent years in the mutual fund industry. In the last fourteen years, thousands of our clients have benefitted from our quality advice and have made mutual funds as the mainstay of their portfolio. You can benefit too from our expertise for your existing as well as new investments. All you need to do is to just call up any of the offices or email your requirements at [email protected] and our professional advisors will do the rest.
Wealthwise
Address to be affixed here
Dear Investor,
Finance minister announced a slew of measures on 23rd
August 2019 to boost economic growth. In a much-needed
relief to the FPIs, the government withdrew the enhanced
surcharge on foreign investors. It came along with a host
of other measures related with angel tax, bank
recapitalisation and income tax notices. Further, it was
announced that an amount of ̀ 70,000 crore budgeted for
bank recapitalization plan will be released upfront.
For the auto sector, depreciation has been doubled to 30 per cent for vehicles
purchased by 31st March 2020 and the ban on government departments to buy
new vehicles has been lifted. To boost consumption, banks have decided to cut
interest rates which will lead to lower EMIs for home, auto and other loans. This
was followed by the government decision to allow 100 per cent foreign
investment in coal mining and contract manufacturing, ease sourcing norms for
single-brand retailers and 26 per cent overseas investment in digital media.
Finance Minister also unveiled a mega merger plan for Public Sector Banks
(PSBs), amalgamating 10 banks into 4 in order to revive and revitalise the
banking sector with the objective of achieving the $5-trillion economy target.
The consolidation will bring down the total number of public sector banks in the
country to 12 from 27.
While these positive measures demonstrate that government is responsive to the
need of rejuvenating the economy, there are indications that slowdown in the
economy has deepened further. India's GDP growth decelerated to a more than
six-year low at 5% in the June quarter of 2019-20, against 5.8% in the March
quarter. Manufacturing growth has almost collapsed at 0.6% in the June quarter,
against 12.1 % in Q1 2018-19.
Market valuations are near longer term average. In fact, many sectors and stocks
are trading below their long-term valuation multiples. Considering that interest
rates are declining, liquidity is improving, oil prices are stable and more
announcements are expected from finance minister to revive the economy, we
expect the market to recover in the second half of the current financial year.
Warm regards,
Hemant RustagiEditor
5Market Outlook(Fixed Income)
4Performance Of Select Funds
2-3The Importance Of‘First Principles' WhenInvesting In Debt Mutual Funds
6Equity Market Outlook
If undelivered, please return to:
Wiseinvest Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
602, 6th Floor, Sri Krishna Complex, Opposite Laxmi Industrial Estate,
New Link Road, Andheri (W),Mumbai 400 053.
Tel : 2673 2671 / 2673 2676
September 2019 | Page No. 2
The Importance Of ‘First Principles' When Investing In Debt Mutual Funds
A. Identifying Risk in Debt Mutual Funds (Mfs)
There are two major types of risks associated with a
debt MF:
1) Interest rate risk: Risk of loss owing to changes in
interest rates. This risk is best captured by the duration
of the fund.
2) Credit risk: Risk of loss owing to change in credit profile of an issuer that
leads either to a downgrade or default.
B. Identifying own risk profile
Most investors in debt mutual funds have been or still are fixed deposit
customers. Therefore, it is very important to appropriately identify one's own
risk profile while deciding where to invest. Obviously mutual funds cannot
guarantee returns. Therefore if one wants a risk profile that is the closest to a
fixed deposit, one has to choose a debt fund that controls both interest rate and
credit risk.
Right away, one can notice an inconsistency in asset allocations done over the
past few years. Thus interest rate risk has always been identified as risk; since
it is obviously visible as daily volatility in net asset value (NAV). However,
credit risk has largely been called 'accrual' and the risk associated here has
been under appreciated. Indeed, one has often heard a debate of 'duration
versus accrual', where 'duration' denotes funds that carry interest rate risk and
'accrual' denotes funds that carry credit risk. Thus as interest rates turn more
volatile one hears the argument that investors should move from duration
funds to accrual funds. This may not be consistent advice; for a couple of
reasons:
1. A move away from interest rate risk should not automatically mean the
embracing of credit risk. Thus the more appropriate advice may have been: if
you don't like volatility associated with duration funds then move to funds
with lower duration (short term funds for instance) while keeping credit
quality constant. To illustrate further, suppose one were in a dynamic bond
fund which was running a combination of AAA and government bonds, but of
higher maturity. Then, if the investor wishes to curb the interest rate risk
associated with the product, she should move to a short term fund which has
lower maturity but has a similar credit risk, i.e. AAA and government bonds.
However, by moving to credit risk funds that invest predominantly in AA and
below the investor is adding credit risk just as she is reducing interest rate risk.
This is akin to switching one risk for another and not really reducing the net
risk in the portfolio.
2. A better approach is to follow an asset allocation table rather than follow
tactical advice, which by itself generally follows the rear-view mirror. Thus if
an investor into a mutual fund is conservative (which presumably most debt
investors are) then majority of her allocations should be to products most
likely to have conservative risk profiles. As explained above, these are funds
that control both duration and credit risks. Full AAA funds in the low duration
Debt Asset Alloca�on
Liquidity Core Satellite
Suitable for parkingsurplus savings; asemergency corpus
Controlled(Dura�on and Credit) Credit Dura�on
Suitable subs�tutefor Fixed deposits*
Suitable for investors looking to take higher risks
(Credit, Dura�on or both)in order to generate higher
returns
*FD Offer Fixed Rate of Return, while mutual funds are market linked. Bank Fixed Deposits are relatively safer as they are covered under DICGC to the extent of INR 1 lakh per account.
C. The First Principles Requirements from a Mutual Fund (MF)
A MF is a pass through vehicle. It pools investor funds and invests them. In the
case of debt fund, these investments are made in the debt market. At some
point one or more investors can ask for their money back, if it is an open ended
fund. On receiving this request, the fund manager has to sell securities and
meet the redemption. As far as possible after this sale has been made and the
redemption funded, the character of the fund (in terms of risk profile,
company concentration, etc) should be similar to what it was before. This is so
that the fund remains consistent for the investors who are left behind.
The important point here from an investor's standpoint is that the majority of
investments should be liquid; which means that the fund manager should be
able to sell them at least in ordinary market conditions. This is important for
two reasons:
1) The fund should have ability to fund its redemption and in a manner that
doesn't alter the profile of the residual portfolio. Thus, if the fund has a
significant exposure to illiquid securities, the fund manager will only be able
to sell the liquid part. What is left will have a higher concentration in illiquid
securities, which is detrimental to investors who are left behind.
Cont. on page 3...
/ short term / medium term / corporate bond / Banking PSU categories should
fulfill this criterion to a large extent. Such funds should form the majority of
allocation for conservative investors. For the rest, one can pursue so called
'alpha' oriented strategies in the 'Satellite' bucket. These could be either
through funds that take interest rate risk for instance (dynamic bond funds) or
those that take credit risk (credit risk funds) or both. So long as such
allocations are kept to the margin (as decided basis investor's risk appetite),
then one needn't do tactical reallocations from time to time. It is to be noted
that such tactical reallocations are also tax inefficient or may be subject to exit
loads. A probable asset allocation mistake made over the past few years is
slotting credit risk funds under the low risk basket where a majority of a fixed
income investor's allocations are made.
Page No. 3 | September 2019
The Importance Of...
2) Illiquid securities by definition don't have a market traded price. This
means that they get valued on opinion rather than on actual market discovered
price. This causes a risk that the NAV of the fund may not appropriately reflect
the actual value of its underlying securities. This should be a cause for concern
for both existing as well as new investors into the fund. This risk is quite real
as market data shows that a majority of securities rated A and below haven't
traded at all since the beginning of this financial year. This creates a large
illiquidity as well as price discovery risk for funds that are holding such paper.
D. Some False Premises
There are some false premises in debt fund investing that one should be aware
of:
1. MFs can manage liquidity via exit loads: In many cases chiefly for
credit risk funds, because a significant part of the portfolio consists of illiquid
securities, the fund manager relies on suitable exit loads to deter redemption.
In some sense, some sort of an asset liability management (ALM) framework
is used. So asset maturity is in 'buckets' basis the exit load periods of investors.
Exit loads are no doubt a large detriment for redeeming from a mutual fund.
However, by no stretch of the imagination can they be relied upon as a
sufficiently high detriment. As discussed before, MFs are pass through
vehicles. They aren't static balance sheets like a bank or non-bank finance
company (NBFCs) where liabilities may have a defined maturity profile. As
has already been shown in the Indian market as well, if the investor concern is
strong enough, she can pay exit load and redeem. This leaves the portfolio
with all the problems described above in connection with illiquid securities.
In some sense also, the point circles back to appropriate asset allocation. If the
investor has allocated to credit risk funds under her predominant low risk
bucket, then the likelihood of a panic exit is that much higher when things turn
for the worse.
2. Even AAA can default, so why bother?: Recent events have evoked
this response in certain quarters. As an admittedly extreme analogy this is
somewhat akin to saying food can sometimes make you choke, so why eat!
The probability of AAA defaulting is negligible. This has been proved with
...Cont. from page 2 data over multiple decades. This doesn't mean it can never happen. However,
to use a once-in-a-blue moon default and paint a general principle is not
advisable at all. Also with some due diligence, the weaker AAA can be
generally weeded out by the fund manager in most cases.
Conclusions
The attempt here has been to highlight some first principles that will hopefully
serve well when making allocations to fixed income mutual funds. Some of
the key takeaways are summarized below:
1. Investors should first be aware of individual risk profile. Assuming debt
investments are first made for conservatism, a majority of allocations should
be to full AAA funds in the low duration / short term / medium term / corporate
bond / Banking PSU categories.
2. Credit is a risk just like interest rates are. It can lead to both positive as
well as negative outcomes. The key is to allocate to both credit and duration in
the satellite bucket and not in the core debt allocation bucket.
3. An open ended debt mutual fund should first and foremost fulfill the
criterion that a majority of its portfolio should have liquidity and price
discovery via the open market. This enables seamless redemption
management, consistency in portfolio profile even with inflows and
redemptions, and the discovery of NAV that is largely accurate.
4. A lot of discussion on credit revolves around quality of manager and
depth of research process. What is equally important, however, is to ask this:
Is the nature of risk being taken consistent with the vehicle being used to take
the risk? More specifically, are open ended mutual funds the appropriate
vehicle to take on such positions?
Mr. Suyash ChoudharyHead – Fixed IncomeIDFC Asset Management Company Limited
Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
September 2019 | Page No. 4
Performance Of Select FundsData as on August 30, 2019
Mutual funds, like securities investments, are subject to market and other risks. As with any investments in securities, the NAV of units can go up or down depending on the factors and forces affecting capital markets.
*Absolute ** Annualised. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
DEBTDebt Oriented & Ultra Short Term Debt Fund Funds Launch 1 Mth* 3 Mth* 6 Mth* 1 Year* 2 Year** 3 Year** 5 Year**
ABSL Short Term Opportunities Fund May-03 0.63 2.55 5.58 9.68 6.90 7.23 8.53
Aditya Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan Mar-09 0.19 2.16 3.96 4.26 4.60 6.09 7.99
Please check whether you have received dividend for the fund/s that you may have in your portfolio out of this list. In case, you do not maintain any portfolio statement, Wiseinvest Advisors can do that for you free of charge. Once we have the details, we would send your updated statement every month. You can contact our corporate office or our branch to avail of this free service.
Registered - R.N.I. No.: MAHENG/2007/19802 • Postal Regd. No.: MCN/72/2019-2021 • Posted at Mumbai Patrika Channel Sorting Office, GPO, Mumbai on 9th & 10th of every month.
DISCLAIMER: All reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is neither misleading nor untrue at the time of publication, but we make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. All information is provided without any liability whatsoever on the part of Wiseinvest Advisors Private Limited.
RISK FACTORS: Mutual funds, like securities investments, are subject to market and other risks and there can be no assurance that the scheme's objectives will be achieved. As with any investments in securities, the NAV of units can go up or down depending on the factors and forces affecting capital markets. Please read the offer document before investing.