04/23/2013 GEORGAKAKOS 1 Sensitivity of California Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management to Projected Climate Change Konstantine (Kosta) Georgakakos(*), Nicholas E. Graham HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER Aris P. Georgakakos and Huaming Yao GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY (*) Also Adjunct Professor with Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD
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04/23/2013 GEORGAKAKOS 1
Sensitivity of California Integrated
Forecast and Reservoir Management
to Projected Climate Change
Konstantine (Kosta) Georgakakos(*), Nicholas E. Graham
HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER
Aris P. Georgakakos and Huaming Yao
GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
(*) Also Adjunct Professor with Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD
04/23/2013 GEORGAKAKOS 2
PRESENTATION FOCUS
Reservoir Management in Northern California under
climatic variability and change
A system of reservoirs modulates the climatic and weather variability in order to
produce downstream benefits:
- flood damage mitigation
- hydroelectric power production
- water conservation for municipal, industrial and agricultural supply
- ecosystem benefits
- others
Reservoir effectiveness is substantially influenced by
- climatic variability and trends
- demand variability and trends
- changing water markets
Important target of reservoir management is to
- maximize water use efficiency
04/23/2013 GEORGAKAKOS 3
ELEMENTS OF CURRENT RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
Simulation runs with
- historical data and statistics
- a detailed numerical description of the system
to get a set of operating rules (guide rules) on which to base
operational management
(E.G., No precip. forecasts are used for management, only observed precip.)
Willis and co-authors
(2011) San Francisco Estuary a
And watershed Science, 9(2)
Oroville Rule Curve
Max allowed storage
04/23/2013 GEORGAKAKOS 4
ELEMENTS OF CURRENT RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
Planning involves several stakeholders and several objectives
as well as some coordination among reservoir sites
No two systems are the same and generalization is difficult
in reservoir management (climate, demands, system structure)
Climate/weather predictions must be translated
to system decision variables to be useful for management
Surface Temperature
Wind
etc.
Reservoir Pool
Energy Balance
& Release Level
Water
Temperature
Climate/weather prediction Decision Variable Index
E.G., cold water species fisheries management (Huang and others, 2011, JAWRA, 47(4))
04/23/2013 GEORGAKAKOS 5
TWO ISSUES TO DISCUSS
The Integrated Forecast and Management Project (INFORM)
for Northern California (prototype demonstration project)
Assessing adaptive reservoir management versus current
management through simulation experiments
http://www.hrc-lab.org/projects (follow link to INFORM)
Georgakakos and co-authors (2011a-b) Journal of Hydrology (on line)
Benefit/Impact Functions • Water Supply • Energy • Flood Damage • Env.-Ecosystem
Near Real Time Decision Support
Hourly / 1 Day
Mid/Short Range Decision Support
Daily, 6-Hourly, or Hourly / 1 Month
Long Range Decision Support
Weekly, 10-Day or Monthly / 1-2 Years
Infrastructure Develpmnt.
Water Sharing Compacts
Sustainability Targets
Management Policy
INFORM DSS ELEMENTS
Multiple Objectives, Time Scales, & Decision Makers
Managem
ent
Agencie
s/D
ecis
ions
Pla
nnin
g A
gencie
s/D
ecis
ions
Opera
tional Pla
nnin
g a
nd M
anagem
ent
Off
-lin
e
Ass
ess
ments
04/23/2013 GEORGAKAKOS 11
Forecasted Inflow Mean Comparison
1727
6988
5108
3139
2511
9184
5174
3578
2009
7195
4067
3482
1802
4805
35883334
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Trinity Shasta Oroville Folsom
Infl
ow
(cfs
)
Historical
F2006
F2007
F2008
Mean Inflow Forecast Comparison (9 Months)
(2006, 2007, 2008)
2006 (Wet); 2007 (Average); 2008 (Dry)
04/23/2013 GEORGAKAKOS 12
13 04/23/2013 GEORGAKAKOS
FORECAST UTILITY DEMONSTRATION
CLIMATE INFORMATION USED
CLIMATE MODEL: NCAR CCSM3.0 (COUPLED MODEL) SCENARIO: A1B MIDDLE LEVEL SCENARIO DECLINING EMISSIONS AFTER 2050 MAX CO2 CONCENTRATON OF ~715 PPM AT 2100 RESOLUTION: ~120KM HORIZONTAL, 26 VERTICAL LAYERS AND 6HRS VARIABLES USED: 3-D ATMOSPHERIC VARIABLES
TWO INPUT SETS: 1970 -2019 AND 2050 - 2099
Good Large Scale Precipitation Correspondence of Historical 1950-1999 run with NCEP Reanalysis 1948-1997 for West Coast
DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING COMPONENTS FOR MEAN AREAL PRECIPITATION AND MEAN AREAL TEMPERATURE
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION GRIDDED MODEL WINDFLOW FROM QUASI STEADY STATE POTENTIAL THEORY FLOW WATER SUBSTANCE SOURCE/ADVECTION MODEL WITH KESSLER MICROPHYSICS 10X10 SQKM SPATIAL AND 6HOURLY TEMPORAL RESOLUTION SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRIDDED MODEL INTERPOLATION/ADJUSTMENT OF CCSM3.0 LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE OVER TERRAIN SURFACE ENERGY BALANCE MODEL (OROGRAPHIC AND SNOW/SOIL MODEL COUPLING) 10X10 SQKM SPATIAL AND 6HOURLY TEMPORAL RESOLUTION GIS-BASED SYSTEM FOR CATCHMENT DELINEATION AND PRODUCTION OF MAP AND MAT IN N. CALIFORNIA