Jose L Hernandez, Syewoon Hwang, Guillermo Baigorria, James Jones, Wendy Graham Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611 Sensitivity Analysis of High Resolution Regional Climate Model Outputs to 1993-2006 Changes in Land Surface Characteristics: Central Florida Case study Abstract This is an ongoing investigation to analyze the sensitivity of near surface climate parameters to land use change (LUC) during a decadal period, 1993-2006 in Central Florida. LUC has been evaluated, using GIS data from Southwest Florida Water Management. We use a regional model set at 9Km, 3Km and 1Km resolutions under different physical configurations with a fine lower atmospheric description. After model validation, we inspect changes in the patterns of atmospheric circulation close to the land surface and the energy budget at a daily time scale. Particular attention is given to stations surrounded by urban areas exhibiting major land management changes during the studied period, like those on the Gulf of Mexico coastal side, as well as stations on the Atlantic coast. Temperature, precipitation and wind are studied for all stations. Data • 2006 LU Southwest Water Management District: http://www.swfwmd.state.fl.us/data/gis/libraries/physical_dense/lu06.htm • 1992-1993 USGS (MM5 LU model default data) • NCEP Reanalysis data (input for MM5 model simulations) • FSU/COAPS meteorological data: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/ • Florida Automated Weather Network: http://fawn.ifas.ufl.edu/ Methods LU features were photointerpreted using 1- ft color infrared (CIR) digital aerial photographs and categorized according to the Florida Land Use and Cover Classification System . Model validation is carried out using hourly FSU/COAPS and UFL/FAWN meteorological data. The MM5 modeling system has been set at three spatial domains covering Florida, central FL and Tampa Bay regions. Particular attention is given to stations surrounded by urban areas exhibiting major land management changes during the decadal period. Spatial settings: Resolution= 9km , Sigmalevs: 21, X-Dim: 101, Y-Dim: 107 ; Resolution=3km, sigmalevels: 21, X-Dim: 111, Y-Dim: 138 Resolution=1km, sigmalevels: 21, X-Dim: 135, Y-Dim: 126; Physics: IFRAD= 2 , ICUPA= 3 , IMPHYS= 4 , IBLTYP= 5 , ISOIL= 1 , ISHALLO= 1 Preliminary results • Urban and agriculture areas are dominant land-use categories over last decade in west central Florida. Agricultural land-use covered the largest area in 1999 with 24%; however, in 2006, urban areas became dominant over the region. As expected, urban area tends to increase, and agriculture and upland forest decrease over a recent decade. The results are likely because of industrial development and population increase. •Under the coastal urban areas included in this study, the atmospheric vertical structure is more complex than in inland counterparts and land-sea breeze processes in general dominates their climate variability. Our investigation is focusing now in developing sensitivity and statistical analysis (spatial and temporal) to separate different processes and signals for an objective evaluation. Decadal land surface change effects are difficult to examine. • Observations reveal more frequent precipitation in Tampa Bay, Orlando and similar large urban areas. Model precipitation is significantly sensible to physics schemes. Exp3’s physics configuration show enhanced precipitation. In general, temperature and wind model outputs follow the observed temporal variability at daily scale, and during spring, summer and winter. It is useful to contrast urban areas with neighboring non-urban types. Because surface thermal properties and radiative characteristics control energy and vapor exchange, it is expected to observe contrasting heat flux exchange and temperatures over the region due to urban heat island (UHI) effect. Under different model physics schemes, urban areas display higher average temperatures and latent heat flux than surrounding areas. Acknowledgments This research originally used computational resources at The University of Florida ABE Department and Water Institute. We thank to Tampa Bay Water Management District for providing their valuable LU maps to accomplish the evaluation of land use conversion. JLH and S.H acknowledges support from Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC). 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 25 30 35 Hour in 16-Aug-06. FLAWN Stat#: 320 Temp( o C) Model: 28.6+/- 3.07 Observations: 26.8+/- 4.1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 25 30 35 Hour in 16-Aug-06. FLAWN Stat#: 330 Temp( o C) Model: 28.7+/- 3 Observations: 27.4+/- 3.89 ABE Department and Water Institute, University of Florida ABE Department and Water Institute, University of Florida http://www.abe.ufl.edu/ http://www.abe.ufl.edu/ -88 -86 -84 -82 -80 -78 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 Model Domains and FSU-COAPS stations Longitude( o ) Latitude( o C) Dom1: 9 Km Dom2: 3 Km Dom3: 1 Km -83.2 -83 -82.8 -82.6 -82.4 -82.2 -82 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 Longitude 1992-1993 USGS Land Use: 1 Km resolution Latitude Urban Drylnd Crop Past Irrig Crop Past Mix Dry/Irr C.P. Crop/Gras Mos Crop/Wood Mos Grassland Shrubland Mix Shr/Grs Savanna Decid. Broadlf Decid. Needlf Evergrn Broadlf Evergrn Needlf Mixed Forest Water Bodies Herb Wetland Wooded wetland Bar. Sparse Veg. Herb tundra Wooded tundra Mixed tundra Baregrnd tundra Snow or Ice 2006 LU Tampa Bay Water Management District: 1995 LU Tampa Bay Water Management District: Exp# FRAD ICUP A IMPH YS IBLTY P ISOIL ISHA LLO 1 2 3 6 3 1 1 2 2 3 6 5 1 1 3 2 8 4 2 1 1 61.1 75.9 14.6 41.6 44.4 48.6 0.6 3.3 68.3 70.1 13.0 40.2 45.4 48.3 1.1 3.7 70.6 69.4 12.7 39.1 45.6 48.4 0.6 3.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Urban Agriculture Rangeland Upland forests Water Wetland Barren land Transp. & util. x10000 Landuse categories Area of each landuse (ha) 1999 2004 2006 Results: Land use change Observed precipitation shows superior monthly accumulation and frequency of Precp> 10mm over larger urban areas (Tampa, Orlando) -83 -82.5 -82 -81.5 -81 -80.5 -80 26 26.5 27 27.5 28 28.5 29 Jan-92 to Dec-93 Hourly Meteorological Stations: Frequency of Precipitation > 10mm Longitude( o ) Latitude( o C) 0 16 0 0 37 0 24 1 0 57 337 11 0 23 86 25 42 Results: Observational data Urban and agriculture areas have been dominant LU categories over west central Florida. Noticeable transformation from agriculture to urbanization is observed during last decade. May, 2-16, 2004: Obs (o), 3km (x), 9km(+) ; Temp (C, right); 10m Wind speed (m/s, left panels) Results: Model simulations and evaluation 1992-08-01 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-07 09:00 to 5.875 days later Average Temperature ( o C), 1 Km resolution; Three Different Model Physics schemes 1992-08-13 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-01 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-07 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-13 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-01 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-07 09:00 to 5.875 days later 27 28 29 30 31 1992-08-13 09:00 to 5.875 days later IFRAD= 2 ICUPA= 3 IMPHYS= 6 IBLTYP= 5 ISOIL= 1 ISHALLO= 1 IFRAD= 2 ICUPA= 8 IMPHYS= 4 IBLTYP= 2 ISOIL= 1 ISHALLO= 1 IFRAD= 2 ICUPA= 3 IMPHYS= 6 IBLTYP= 3 ISOIL= 1 ISHALLO= 1 1992-08-01 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-07 09:00 to 5.875 days later Average Latent heat flux(Watt/m 2 ), 1 Km Resolution; Three different physics schemes 1992-08-13 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-01 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-07 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-13 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-01 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-07 09:00 to 5.875 days later 0 50 100 150 200 1992-08-13 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-01 09:00 + 5.375 days later -83 -82.5 -82 -81.5 27.5 28 28.5 1992-08-07 09:00 + 5.375 days later -83 -82.5 -82 -81.5 27.5 28 28.5 1992-08-13 09:00 + 5.375 days later -83 -82.5 -82 -81.5 27.5 28 28.5 1992-08-01 09:00 + 5.375 days later -83 -82.5 -82 -81.5 27.5 28 28.5 1992-08-07 09:00 + 5.375 days later -83 -82.5 -82 -81.5 27.5 28 28.5 1992-08-13 09:00 + 5.375 days later -83 -82.5 -82 -81.5 27.5 28 28.5 1992-08-01 09:00 + 5.375 days later -83 -82.5 -82 -81.5 27.5 28 28.5 1992-08-07 09:00 + 5.375 days later -83 -82.5 -82 -81.5 27.5 28 28.5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1992-08-13 09:00 + 5.375 days later -83 -82.5 -82 -81.5 27.5 28 28.5 3 hr Accumulated Precipitation (mm)
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Jose L Hernandez, Syewoon Hwang, Guillermo Baigorria, James Jones, Wendy GrahamDepartment of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611
Sensitivity Analysis of High Resolution Regional Climate Model Outputs to 1993-2006 Changes in Land Surface Characteristics: Central Florida Case study
AbstractThis is an ongoing investigation to analyze the sensitivity of near surface climate parameters to land use change (LUC) during a decadal period, 1993-2006 in Central Florida. LUC has been evaluated, using GIS data from Southwest Florida Water Management. We use a regional model set at 9Km, 3Km and 1Km resolutions under different physical configurations with a fine lower atmospheric description. After model validation, we inspect changes in the patterns of atmospheric circulation close to the land surface and the energy budget at a daily time scale. Particular attention is given to stations surrounded by urban areas exhibiting major land management changes during the studied period, like those on the Gulf of Mexico coastal side, as well as stations on the Atlantic coast. Temperature, precipitation and wind are studied for all stations.
Data• 2006 LU Southwest Water Management District:
http://www.swfwmd.state.fl.us/data/gis/libraries/physical_dense/lu06.htm• 1992-1993 USGS (MM5 LU model default data)• NCEP Reanalysis data (input for MM5 model simulations)• FSU/COAPS meteorological data: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/• Florida Automated Weather Network: http://fawn.ifas.ufl.edu/
MethodsLU features were photointerpreted using 1- ft color infrared (CIR) digital aerial photographs and categorized according to the Florida Land Use and Cover Classification System . Model validation is carried out using hourly FSU/COAPS and UFL/FAWN meteorological data. The MM5 modeling system has been set at three spatial domains covering Florida, central FL and Tampa Bay regions. Particular attention is given to stations surrounded by urban areas exhibiting major land management changes during the decadal period.
Spatial settings:Resolution= 9km , Sigmalevs: 21, X-Dim: 101, Y-Dim: 107 ;Resolution=3km, sigmalevels: 21, X-Dim: 111, Y-Dim: 138Resolution=1km, sigmalevels: 21, X-Dim: 135, Y-Dim: 126;
Physics:IFRAD= 2 , ICUPA= 3 , IMPHYS= 4 , IBLTYP= 5 , ISOIL= 1 ,ISHALLO= 1
Preliminary results • Urban and agriculture areas are dominant land-use categories over last decade in west central Florida. Agricultural land-use covered the largest area in 1999 with 24%; however, in 2006, urban areas became dominant over the region. As expected, urban area tends to increase, and agriculture and upland forest decrease over a recent decade. The results are likely because of industrial development and population increase.
•Under the coastal urban areas included in this study, the atmospheric vertical structure is more complex than in inland counterparts and land-sea breeze processes in general dominates their climate variability. Our investigation is focusing now in developing sensitivity and statistical analysis (spatial and temporal) to separate different processes and signals for an objective evaluation. Decadal land surface change effects are difficult to examine.
• Observations reveal more frequent precipitation in Tampa Bay, Orlando and similar large urban areas. Model precipitation is significantly sensible to physics schemes. Exp3’s physics configuration show enhanced precipitation. In general, temperature and wind model outputs follow the observed temporal variability at daily scale, and during spring, summer and winter. It is useful to contrast urban areas with neighboring non-urban types. Because surface thermal properties and radiative characteristics control energy and vapor exchange, it is expected to observe contrasting heat flux exchange and temperatures over the region due to urban heat island (UHI) effect. Under different model physics schemes, urban areas display higher average temperatures and latent heat flux than surrounding areas.
AcknowledgmentsThis research originally used computational resources at The University of Florida ABE Department and Water Institute. We thank to Tampa Bay Water Management District for providing their valuable LU maps to accomplish the evaluation of land use conversion. JLH and S.H acknowledges support from Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC).
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
25
30
35
Hour in 16-Aug-06.
FLAWN Stat#: 320
Tem
p(oC
) Model: 28.6+/- 3.07Observations: 26.8+/- 4.1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
25
30
35
Hour in 16-Aug-06.
FLAWN Stat#: 330
Tem
p(oC
) Model: 28.7+/- 3
Observations: 27.4+/- 3.89
ABE Department and Water Institute, University of Florida ABE Department and Water Institute, University of Florida http://www.abe.ufl.edu/http://www.abe.ufl.edu/
-88 -86 -84 -82 -80 -7823
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
Model Domains and FSU-COAPS stations
Longitude(o)
Latit
ude(
o C)
Dom1: 9 Km
Dom2: 3 Km
Dom3: 1 Km
-83.2 -83 -82.8 -82.6 -82.4 -82.2 -82
27.4
27.6
27.8
28
28.2
28.4
Longitude
1992-1993 USGS Land Use: 1 Km resolution
Latit
ude
Urban
Drylnd Crop Past
Irrig Crop Past
Mix Dry/Irr C.P.Crop/Gras Mos
Crop/Wood Mos
GrasslandShrubland
Mix Shr/GrsSavanna
Decid. Broadlf
Decid. Needlf
Evergrn BroadlfEvergrn Needlf
Mixed ForestWater Bodies
Herb WetlandWooded wetland
Bar. Sparse Veg.
Herb tundra
Wooded tundra
Mixed tundraBaregrnd tundra
Snow or Ice
2006 LU Tampa Bay Water Management District: 1995 LU Tampa Bay Water Management District:
Exp# FRAD ICUP A
IMPH YS
IBLTY P
ISOIL ISHA LLO
1 2 3 6 3 1 12 2 3 6 5 1 13 2 8 4 2 1 1
61.1
75.9
14.6
41.6 44
.4 48.6
0.6
3.3
68.3 70
.1
13.0
40.2 45
.4 48.3
1.1
3.7
70.6
69.4
12.7
39.1
45.6 48
.4
0.6
3.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Urban Agriculture Rangeland Uplandforests
Water Wetland Barren land Transp. &util.
x10000
Landuse categories
Are
a of
eac
h la
ndus
e (h
a)
1999 2004 2006
Results: Land use change
Observed precipitation shows superior monthly accumulation and frequency of Precp> 10mm over larger urban areas (Tampa, Orlando)
-83 -82.5 -82 -81.5 -81 -80.5 -8026
26.5
27
27.5
28
28.5
29
Jan-92 to Dec-93 Hourly Meteorological Stations: Frequency of Precipitation > 10mm
Longitude(o)
Latit
ude(
o C)
0
160
0
37
0
24
1
0
57
337
11
0
23
86
2542
Results:Observational data
Urban and agriculture areas have been dominant LU categories over west central Florida. Noticeable transformation from agriculture to urbanization is observed during last decade.
May, 2-16, 2004: Obs (o), 3km (x), 9km(+) ; Temp (C, right); 10m Wind speed (m/s, left panels)
Results: Model simulations and evaluation
1992-08-01 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-07 09:00 to 5.875 days laterAverage Temperature (oC), 1 Km resolution; Three Different Model Physics schemes
1992-08-13 09:00 to 5.875 days later
1992-08-01 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-07 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-13 09:00 to 5.875 days later
1992-08-01 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-07 09:00 to 5.875 days later
27 28 29 30 31
1992-08-13 09:00 to 5.875 days later
IFRAD= 2 ICUPA= 3 IMPHYS= 6 IBLTYP= 5 ISOIL= 1 ISHALLO= 1
IFRAD= 2 ICUPA= 8 IMPHYS= 4 IBLTYP= 2 ISOIL= 1 ISHALLO= 1
IFRAD= 2 ICUPA= 3 IMPHYS= 6 IBLTYP= 3 ISOIL= 1 ISHALLO= 1
1992-08-01 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-07 09:00 to 5.875 days laterAve rage Late nt heat flux(Watt/m 2), 1 Km Resolution; Thre e different physics schem e s
1992-08-13 09:00 to 5.875 days later
1992-08-01 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-07 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-13 09:00 to 5.875 days later
1992-08-01 09:00 to 5.875 days later 1992-08-07 09:00 to 5.875 days later
0 50 100 150 200
1992-08-13 09:00 to 5.875 days later
1992-08-01 09:00 + 5.375 days later
-83 -82.5 -82 -81.5
27.5
28
28.5
1992-08-07 09:00 + 5.375 days later
-83 -82.5 -82 -81.5
27.5
28
28.5
1992-08-13 09:00 + 5.375 days later
-83 -82.5 -82 -81.5
27.5
28
28.5
1992-08-01 09:00 + 5.375 days later
-83 -82.5 -82 -81.5
27.5
28
28.5
1992-08-07 09:00 + 5.375 days later
-83 -82.5 -82 -81.5
27.5
28
28.5
1992-08-13 09:00 + 5.375 days later
-83 -82.5 -82 -81.5
27.5
28
28.5
1992-08-01 09:00 + 5.375 days later
-83 -82.5 -82 -81.5
27.5
28
28.5
1992-08-07 09:00 + 5.375 days later
-83 -82.5 -82 -81.5
27.5
28
28.5
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
1992-08-13 09:00 + 5.375 days later
-83 -82.5 -82 -81.5
27.5
28
28.5
3 hr Accumulated Precipitation (mm)
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