Sense the move to futures

Speech: 10^7 bits TribesWriting: 10^11 bits City culturesPrinting: 10^17 bits Renaissance Industrial societyDigital: 10^25 bits ??? culture

Donald Robertson: New Renaissance

Gutenberg Encyclopedia

… but our brains are still in the speech learning stage

Sense the move to futures

Jyrki J.J. Kasvi

Euro debt crises come and goTrue megatrends reshape our societies for good Climate change and environmental sustainability

– A growing part of economic growth is going to be used on emission control and adaptation to climate change

Global demographic change– The average Finnish age is about 40 years

• Half of Finnish voters are pensioners - a retired nation

– In developing countries the great generations are becoming adults

• Every third Egyptian is under 15 years of age Global networking and dependency

– The rise of BRIC countires to economic, cultural and military superpowers New technologies are shaping our societies

– ICT now penetrates our societies

10.04.2023 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 6

Dependency ratio collapses … right about now

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People under 15 and over 65 years of age per 100 working age people

0-14 yr olds Over 65 yr olds


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E.g. robot baby seals were used to comfort elderly Japanese who had lost everything in the tsunami

(NHK Video screenshot)

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Sea levels are not starting to rise

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How high do you live?

Post glacial rebound in Southern Finland.

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Running out

With current usage we run out of (New Scientist) indium, terbium, hafnium and lead on this decade silver, tin, antimony and uranium on next decade Nickel, platinum, tantalum, zinc, chrome, copper and gold on this century

New technologies influence demand for raw materials In 2003 a kilogram of indium cost $60, in 2006 $1000 Fuel cells require loads of platinum

– Street dust is already “mined” for platinum falling off from car catalysers– 1,5 / 1.000.000 street dust particles can be platinum

Efficient solar cells would be on market if there were enough indium and gallium China has 95% of know reserves of rare earths and controls also African mines

– The civil war in Congo is a war to control local tantalum mines Economic growth has been based on expanding consumption of

raw materials and energy Future growth has to be based on increasing raw material productivity China is already buying and storing electronic waste

Ashley Felton: Public domain

A future mine

15Verace Sustainability Report 2006

Why make pulp and paper in Finland in the Future…• from slowly growing expensive trees?• far away from still growing paper markets?• with Finnish labour costs?

Finland was one of the winners of globalisation


The World in 2050’s

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• Asia returns to the centre of the World• Europe misses its chance to stay a world power

www.kasvi.org

Waves of technology

Agriculturalsocety

6000-7000 yrs

Industrialsociety250 yrs

Informationsociety50 yrs

Biotechsociety25 yrs

Fusionsociety?? yrs

GlobalisationGNPComplexitySpeed of change

Mika Mannermaa

You are here!

Government and education have trouble keeping up.

Forecasting is difficult ”I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”

Thomas Watson, IBM CEO ,1943.

”Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” Popular Mechanics magazine on development of science, 1949.

”There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, President of DEC, World Future Society Convention, 1977

"You aren't going to turn passive consumers into active trollers on the Internet." Stephen Weiswasser, senior VP, ABC television, 1989

"The Internet? Bah!" Newsweek headline, 1995

Science fiction has often been more accurate thanrespectable futures research True Names, Vernor Vinge.

24.9.2009 www.kasvi.org 19

E.g. ”Brain pacer”

Science fiction has inspired developers of ICT (True Names, Neuromancer, …)

Which society? Information society

Information is the key mean, object and result of culture and economy

ICT society Emphasises the role of technology as definer os socety: ”The code is law.”

Ubiquitous society Technology is omnipresent and transparent to its users.

Network society Emphasises the role of social networks and networking.

Postmodern society Post industrial society with overlapping meanings and perspecives.

Fusion society ICT combined with nano, bio, gene and cognitive technologies

Evolution of Internet 1980’s: Internet is a network of computers

Still the technological definition of Internet: Network of computers using the TCP/IP-protocol

1990’s: Internet is a network of information Ted Nelson’s Xanadu WWW = URL addres & HTTP protocol & HTML language

2000’s: Internet is a network of people Social media Networking and sharing

2010’s: Internet becomes a network of things Ubiquitous society Ipv6, rfid

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The next 50 years Industrial revolution had two stages

The first ~50 years the technology evolved The next ~50 years that technology reshaped

the basic structures of our societies Now ICT has penetrated our society in ~50 years

The structures created by industrial revolution are crumbling The pace of technological and societal change is rapidly increasing

It took 100-120 yrs to build the global wired telephone network. It took 10 yrs to build a corresponding global wireless phone network It took 2-3 years for social media to become a global phenomenon

In ten years time anything can be in everyday use even if it has not been invented yet.

A child going to school this autumn is going to be working in the 2070’s.

7.4.2008www.kasvi.org23

The pace of change has not slowed sincethese days.

US Army Photo

Horst Zuse

Era of sharing Information is like money. It creates new

information and benefits society only whenit is used and invested. Money locked in a money bin is as useless

ase information stored in a closed database.

Governments are opening their databases Improves government transparency and exposes corruption Increases growth of data intensive service SME’s Enhances cross-government data use

– In EU the direct savings potential is 40 billion €/y and indirect 100 billion

”Knowldedge is not power anymore, sharing of knowledge is.” – Teemu Arina

“The best way to get value from data is to give it away”– Neelie Kroes, Vice-President of the European Commission and Commissioner of the Digital Agenda


Open data: a public service created by active citizens:

Combines data scraped from labour office web pages with map data and public transport timetables.

Free is the new black The most popular mobile game in the world is free

Over one billion downloads

The most popular search engines, map services and email services are free But Facebook and Google are not charities!

The most popular Internet multi player game is free Over 35 million registered players

One of the most awarded comics in the world is free E.g. Hugo in 2009, 2010 and 2011

The most watched Finnish movie is free 3,5 – 4 million downloads in 2 months

Technology has always improved productivity and cut prices, now almost to nothing … Free is a new way to make money!

Cumulonimbus Data, software and data processing are being

tranferred from own servers to the cloud ... Capital not tied to own hardware

– Enables flexible adaptation and development Optimises computing power and resource use

– E.g. The proposed U.K G-Cloud was estimated to save £3,2 billion per year

... and becoming on-demand services When data and applications are in different clouds and you control the API’s you

can tender and change service providers The cloud does not respect geographic border, but borders do matter

Client, service provider, data and porcessing may be in different countries – E.g. Consumer protection, data security and privacy legislation are different– Server location determines juridistiction

International rules do not exist and even national laws are outdated Contracts and EULA’s

CC SA Attribution Sugree

E.g. Cloud television

Broadcast-television is becoming an on-demand cloud service In 2010 NetFlix created 20% of US Internet traffic Finnish law carefully avoids the subject of Internet

television Control transfers from TV companies to viewers

Broadcast channels are left with news and current issues

Television companies and authorities react slowly New companies are ready to take over the TV market Old IPR contracts do not cover ipTV Pirates’ P2P networks are still popular with better

selection, quality and service than legal content providers

Media revolution Internet has already replaced television

Finns spend as much time in Internet as watching TV Watcher controlled ipTV

E-readers replace papers and books Bookstores are facing the fate of record stores

Games have been a bigger industry than movies for 10 years Finnish game development industry needs 600 new employees every year.

Mail delivery is ending Paper bills and newspapers are disappearing


Cultural revolution• Digital divide becomes activity divide

• ICT gives active people new means to be even more active members of the society

• Gives passive people new means to be even more passive

• Digital culture is easily overlooked

• A whole Finnish generation was in Habbo Hotel and IRC Gallery before “old media” and society caught on social media

• Over 100.000 Finns were playing Internet poker before society took notice. • What cultural change is going on at the moment without us noticing it?

• Technological imperative• Everybody has to be able to use ICT in order to be a member of society • ICT and digital services have to available, accessible and usable

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CC 2.0 Share-alike Attribution Henri Bergius

Memetic movements

Revolution in 160 characters Spontaneous self managed civil

movements sprout in days Viral revolution: An SMS ”Go 2 EDSA. Wear Blck” was partly

responsible to Estrada’s resignation in 2001 Finnish copyright law demonstrations

Politicians and authorities do not know how to handle leaderless self organising “mobs” “Who the f*** is organising this?” Social media facilitated Arab Spring.

Frustrated digital vigilantes A culture of shared values, methods and ethos instead of organisation Attacking corporations, authorities, politicians and crime cartels No legal protection or provision for complaint

CC 2.0 Generic Vincent Diamante

www.tieke.fi

No leaders to arrest:

”A harvester is just a PC in a special box.””It is hard to find ppl with programming skills to drive harvesters.”

CC 3.0 SA BY Heikki Valve

Digitalization penetrates work

New competency requirements Life management skills

Hot to fit work, family and life together

Competency management skills Life long updating of competencies

Knowledge management skills Information fatigue is a major occupational hazard in information society

What about ICT competencies? ICT competencies should be self evident citizen skills Even young people have trouble using computers for something else than social

media and gaming

Basic-Program ming


Information society citizen skills Basic ICT use skills

Lacking in every age group Media reading and writing skills

Everybody can be a mass media Journalistic principles and amateur media

Data security skills You cannot trust even respected data security companies any more

Digital social capital How to be civil in social media

How and where do we learn these skills? Finland is one of the only countries in Europe where ICT is not compulsory at school

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The fun times are only beginningBy 2015: ICT goes to cloud and becomes an

on-demand service Consumer protection, data protection, legal protection

Augmented reality becomes everyday reality Mobile devices are forerunners, next cars

Garage hackers are back Current market leaders were once in garages, why not the next ones

By 2020: ICT evolves and becomes cheaper

3D-printing brings manufacturing to homes NFC revolutionalises payment industry like rfid did

logistics

Technological breakthroughs on other sciences Neuroscience, bio- and genescience, nano technology, …

E.g. ICT + cognitive science =

UC Berkeley


Science fiction society http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIbf2RcSgDA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIbf2RcSgDA

30.9.2010 www.kasvi.org 40

Sukupuolten välinen digikuilu?

Discussion

U.S. Army Photo

Sense the move to futures

Technology

network society

postmodern society

economy ict society

fusion society ict

network of computers

ubiquitous society technology

evolution of internet

societies ict