Senior Executive Intelligence Brief, 6 April 2002€¦ · The SEI B must be returned . to . CIA within 5 working days . Saturday, 6 April 2002 . National Security Information . Unauthorized

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CIDCPUregV The SEI B must be returned to CIA within 5 working days

Saturday 6 April 2002 National Security Information

Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminitl Sanctions Reproduction of this Document Prohllgtited

Readership is limited to those on approbullmiddoted reader list on file with CIA SEB Control Offl~r 111e ruzdersigned hereb) acknuiJbullIedgereading this docJtmenL

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Table ofContents

Regional Notes

Americas I

Portion identified as non-responsive to the appeal

Venezuela Conditions Ripening for Coup Attempt I I~ 5

Portion identified as non-responsive to the appeal

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Venezuela Conditions Ripening for Coup Attempt IL____jj_E_o__1_35_2_6_s_e_ct_io_n_1_4--(c---)---

Dissillenl military fodions including some disgruntled senior officers and a group ofnulicaljunior ofJicers tue stepping up efforts to orgiJitie a coup agllinll President CJunez possibly IJS early IJS this mo

--E-0--13-5_2_6_-se_c_ti-o_n_1_4_(_c-)(_d_)--1 The level o~ detail i~ the reported plans-one report middot targets Chavez and 10 other semor officials for arrest-lends credence to the information but military and civilian contacts note that neither group appears ready to lead a successful coup and may bungle the attempt by moving too quickly middot

-Civilian groups opposed to Chavezs policies including the Catholic Chunh business groups and labor are backing away from efforts to involve them in the plotting probably to avoid being tainted by an extraconstitutional move and fear that a failed attempt could strengthen Chavezs hand I II EO 13526 section 14(c)

Prospectsjor a successful coup at this point are limited The plotters still lack the political cover to stage a coup Chavezs core support base among poor Venezuelans remains intact and repeated warnings that the US will not support any extraconstitutional moves to oust Chavez probably have given pause to the plotters

-Chavez is monitoring opponents inside and outside the miiitary EO 13526 section 14(c)(d) I land ~ght use~ coup a~empt ~0

middot JUSUfy clampmg down on the struggling ops1t1on and ti0 terun middot his grip on the countrybulls institutions EO 13526 section 14(c)

To prollob military action the plotters mtJy try to exploit unrest stsmnting from opposilion demonslltltions slatedfor later this month or ongoing 11rikn IJI 1M skde-owned oilCOmptlny PDVSA White-colJnr oil workers began striking on Thursday at facilities in II of 23 states as part ofan escalating prOtest against Chavezs efforts to politicize PDVSA

- Protracted strikes particularly if they have the support of the blue-collar oil workers union could trigger a confrontationl~=_l--------------I 1- middot I EO 13526 section 4(c) I

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