SENES Consultants Limited 1 Hamilton Air Quality and Health Impacts Study - 2011 Presented to: Upwind Downwind Conference Presented by: Dr. Douglas Chambers.

SENES Consultants Limited1

Hamilton Air Qualityand Health Impacts Study - 2011

Presented to: Upwind Downwind Conference

Presented by:

Dr. Douglas Chambers

February 27, 2012

1


Background

Project a result of interest by Clean Air Hamilton (CAH) to update Health Impacts Assessment Significant work undertaken by CAH and partners

to lower air concentrations in Hamilton for many pollutants


Some Initiativesto Improve Air Quality

Public Health initiatives (AQHI) Sustainable transportation initiatives (anti-

idling, mobile monitoring) Improved air monitoring (Hamilton Air

Monitoring Network On-line) Air Quality communication (CAH website) Emission reductions (wood burning efficiency

initiative)


City of Hamilton Boundaries


Air Pollutants Considered

Fine Particulate Matter PM10 and PM2.5

Nitrogen Dioxide Surrogate for NOx as NO converted rapidly to NO2

Sulphur Dioxide Ozone Carbon Monoxide


Air Quality - PM2.5


Air Quality – PM10


Air Quality – NO2


Air Quality – SO2


Air Quality – O3


Air Quality – CO


Previous Study - 2003

Used Dr. Pengelly’s Hamilton Air Quality Initiative 1997 report as a basis

Used same methodology to allow for comparison

Updated the relative risk outcomes for PM10, NO2, SO2, CO and O3

Adjusted health outcomes by 42% due to errors in the derivation of the relative risks from the literature


Current Study

Used same methodology as 2003 study Updated air quality data

Obtained from the MOE Updated mortality and morbidity health data

Obtained from Hamilton Public Health Services


Current Study …cont’d

Updated relative risks where new studies were available All relative risks for mortality updated Only some for morbidity

– Adopted relative risks from 2003 study

Included health outcomes for PM2.5


Assumptions Used in Current Study

Focus on relative risks of acute exposures Similar to previous study

Used average relative risks values Separate relative risks for each air pollutant

– May result in double-counting Considered representative air concentrations

No consideration of proximity to industry or major roadways


Health Data

Obtained Health Data from City of Hamilton Public Health Services

Mortality Data Only available up to 2005

Morbidity Data Cardiovascular hospital admissions up to 2008 Respiratory hospital admissions up to 2008


Mortality and Morbidity Rates for Hamilton

* Approximated by Total Acute Care Hospital Discharges for Disease of the Circulatory System** Approximated by Acute Care Hospital Discharges for Disease of the Respiratory System


Relative Risks Used in the Study

Air Pollutant

NT Mortality(changes per 10 pollution

units)

Respiratory Hospital Admissions

(changes per 10 pollution units)

Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions (changes per 10 pollution

units)

PM2.5 (µg/m3) 0.77 - 0.8

PM10 (µg/m3) 0.45 2.1* 0.7

SO2 (ppb) 0.36 3.0 1.1*

NO2 (ppb) 0.68 4.9* 0.94

CO (ppm) 1.7 - 1.95*

O3 (ppb) 0.72 2.8* 0.2

Note:“-” no data available in the literature to determine a relative risk* relative risks obtained from Sahsuvaroglu and Jerrett (2003) as no new data available


Model Equation

Risk (due AQ) = ER[excess relative risk due to AQ] x [baseline rates]

= [ERR (per unit Concentration)] x [Air concentration] x [ baseline rates]


NT Acute Exposure Mortality


Respiratory HospitalAdmissions

Note: PM10, NO2 and O3 Respiratory Hospital Admissions Adjusted by 42% as Using RR Values from 2003 Study


Cardiovascular HospitalAdmissions

Note: PM10, NO2 and O3 Respiratory Hospital Admissions Adjusted by 42% as Using RR Values from 2003 StudyNote: SO2 and CO Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions Adjusted by 42% as Using RR Values from 2003 Study


Note: No relative risks from literature for respiratory admissions for PM2.5

Results Summaryfor Particulate Matter

17%

37%

46%

PM10 Summary of All Outcomes

NT Acute Exposure Mor-talityRespiratory Hospital AdmissionsCardiovascular Hospital Admissions

36%

64%

PM2.5 Summary of All Outcomes



Results Summaryfor NO2 and SO2

15%

49%

36%

NO2 Summary for All Outcomes


9%

62%

29%

SO2 Summary for All Outcomes



Results Summaryfor O3 and CO

Note: No relative risks from literature for respiratory admissions for CO

29%

56%

15%

O3 Summary for All Outcomes


49%51%

CO Summary for All Outcomes



Summary of Resultsfor Current Study


NT AcuteExposure Mortality

Respiratory Admissions

CV Admissions

(changes per 10 units pollutant) (changes per 10 units pollutant) (changes per 10 units pollutant)

range of RR estimates range of RR estimates range of RR estimates1997

Study 2003 Study

CurrentStudy

1997 Study

2003 Study

CurrentStudy

1997 Study

2003 Study

CurrentStudy

PM10 (μg/m3) 1 0.76 0.45 0.7 2.1 2.1 0.6 1.4 0.7PM2.5 (μg/m3) - 2.88 0.77 - - - - - 0.8SO2 (ppb) 0.6 2 0.36 0.4 3.7 3 - 1.1 1.1NO2 (ppb) 1.15 1.9 0.68 0.4 4.9 4.9 - 6.55 0.94

CO (ppm) 1.1 3.68 1.7 - - - 5 1.95 1.95O3 (ppb) 0.3 1.38 0.72 0.8 2.8 2.8 - 4.5 0.2

Comparison of Relative Risks Between Current and Previous Studies

SENES Consultants Limited

PM10 PM2.5 SO2 NO2 CO O3 Total0

50

100

150

200

250


1997 Study

2003 Study

Current Study

Aver

age

Incid

ence

s per

Yea

r

28

Comparison of Mortality Outcomes

Note:1. All 1997 and 2003 study data adjusted by

42% to account for overestimation of RR values


Comparison of Respiratory Outcomes


50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Respiratory Hospital Admissions

1997 Study

2003 Study

Current Study

Aver

age

Incid

ence

s per

Yea

r

Note:1. All 1997 and 2003 study data adjusted by

42% to account for overestimation of RR values

2. PM10, NO2 and O3 current study values adjusted by 42% as no updated RR values were available


Comparison of Cardiovascular Outcomes


200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions

1997 Study

2003 Study

Current Study

Aver

age

Incid

ence

s per

Yea

r

Note:1. All 1997 and 2003 study data adjusted

by 42% to account for overestimation of RR values

2. SO2 and CO current study values adjusted by 42% as no updated RR values were available


Alternative Models - ICAP

Details: Developed by DSS Management Consultants for the

Canadian Medical Association PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, CO, O3

Historical census division specific air quality data from NAPS stations

Input: risk rates, air quality or trends, baseline/background air quality

Output: annual events and economic damages attributable to increase in specific parameter level from baseline/background


Alternative Models – ICAP… cont’d

Limitations for this application: 2006 starting year complicates comparison with current

model Cannot easily calculate incremental benefit or savings

(damages only) For this study can only demonstrate incremental health effects

and economic impact with ozone as benefits associated with other pollutants

Cannot evaluate all pollutants in one run Output format inconvenient to work with Evaluates total mortality only (not chronic and acute

separately)


Comparison of Relative Risks Between Current Studyand ICAP

NT AcuteExposure Mortality

Respiratory Admissions CV Admissions


range of RR estimates range of RR estimates range of RR estimates

ICAP* Current ICAP Current ICAP Current

PM10 (μg/m3) - 0.45 - 2.1 - 0.7

PM2.5 (μ/m3) 1.0 0.77 1.2 - 0.9 0.8

SO2 (ppb) 0.4 0.36 7.5 3 1.9 1.1

NO2 (ppb) 0.8 0.68 7.4 4.9 7.6 0.94

CO (1 ppm) - 1.7 - - - 1.95

O3 (ppb) 0.5 0.72 1.2 2.8 1.9 0.2

* ICAP NT Mortality is Total While Current is Acute Only


Results from ICAP Model- Ozone


Alternative Model - AQBAT

Details: Developed by Dave Stieb and Stan Judek, Health Canada PM10, PM2.5 (limited), SO2, NO2, CO, O3

Historical census division specific air quality data from NAPS stations

Input: risk rates and air quality or trends Output: annual events and damages attributable to increase

in specific parameter level from baseline

Limitations for this application: Cannot Input Air Quality Prior to 2003 for Comparison to

Baseline Difficult to Compare to Total Events per Year


Comparison of Relative Risks Between Current Study and AQBAT


Respiratory Admissions CV Admissions


range of RR estimates range of RR estimates range of RR estimates

AQBAT Current AQBAT Current AQBAT Current

PM10 (μg/m3) - 0.45 - 2.1 - 0.7

PM2.5 (μ/m3) - 0.77 0.75 - 0.71 0.8

SO2 (ppb) 0.46 0.36 - 3 - 1.1

NO2 (ppb) 0.75 0.68 - 4.9 - 0.94

CO (1 ppm) 1.9 1.7 - - - 1.95

O3 (ppb) 0.84 0.72 - 2.8 - 0.2


Results from AQBAT (1)

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Change in NT Acute Exposure Mortality Events Attributable to Change in Air Quality

PM10

PM2.5

SO2

NO2

CO

O3Chan

ge in

Mor

talit

y Ev

ents


Results from AQBAT (2)

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Change in Respiratory Hospital Admissions Attributable to Change in Air Quality

PM10SO2NO2O3

Chan

ge in

Res

pira

tory

Ad-

mis

sion

s

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Change in Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions At-tributable to Change in Air Quality

PM10PM2.5SO2NO2COO3

Chan

ge in

Car

diov

ascu

lar

Ad-

mis

sion

s


Economic Valuation - AQBAT

Sa

vin

gs

C

os

tM

illi

on

s o

f D

oll

ars


Summary

Updated Health Study showed improvements to health outcomes Due to decreases in air concentrations

– Ozone the exception Due to decreases in relative risks from literature studies

Limited utility of other available models for this application Direct comparisons difficult to make between models

Cost heavily dependent on model Can vary widely (in this example at least 5-fold)

Should update the health study in another 5 years

SENES Consultants Limited 1 Hamilton Air Quality and Health Impacts Study - 2011 Presented to: Upwind Downwind Conference Presented by: Dr. Douglas Chambers.

Documents

senes consultants limited

current study slide

study current study

literature slide

air quality pm

air quality pm

study note

air quality data