SEMINAR ON STATUS OF MEASURE LIFETIME WORK RTF EUL Kickoff Meeting, August 2011 Lisa A. Skumatz, Ph.D. Skumatz Economic Research Associates [email protected] , 303/494-1178
Jan 03, 2016
SEMINAR ON STATUS OF MEASURE LIFETIME WORK
RTF EUL Kickoff Meeting, August 2011
Lisa A. Skumatz, Ph.D.Skumatz Economic Research Associates
[email protected], 303/494-1178
SERA
PERSISTENCE / RETENTION
SERA
RETENTION / PERSISTENCE Persistence, measure life, EULs, 50% median,
in place and operable Protocols, best practices summaries on
samples, data collection, analysis, modeling, comparisons, documentation
Some variations in considering adaptations for behavioral programs
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4
REMAINING USEFUL LIFETIME (RUL)
Conceptual issue – early replacement Intervene at replacement standard vs. efficient Intervene early original vs. efficient for “early” part standard vs. efficient for later period Question is, length of time from end of life? Few studies; 1/3 ad hoc Welch & Rogers 2010;
Survey, Weibull, curves for residential equipment System dynamics / stocks cohorts
Strong application for behavioral adoption curves / timing / lifetimes? Measurement issue
SERA
5
TECHNICAL DEGRADATION Technical degradation (TDFs)
Addressed in CA-EM&V protocols Differences in decay? Very few primary studies 2 effects - Technical degradation & behavioral /
operational based on quality of use & upkeep – need studies on combination
Behavioral very parallel; no studies
SERA
LIFETIMES / EULs STUDIES CPUC
Protocols, results, measures with gaps Updated lifetimes in report
All sectors, many measures incorporated into DEER (database for energy efficient resources, energy.ca.gov/deer), protocols
Reviewed program, savings, measures, sampling, field work, data validation, analysis, justifiability Strengths, weaknesses, “score” Hundreds of millions in shareholder claims
SCE / DEER CPUC / CIEE – nationwide review Individual studies
SERA
SCORING CRITERION ON CPUC RETENTION PROJECT-SUMMARY
Criterion Description
CPUC Protocol
Did they meet the CPUC protocol of using the top 10 measures or measures that account for 50% of the program savings? A score of 3 means that they just met the criteria, but the discussion of the measures selected and the program savings may have been weak; 5 was the highest score possible.
Sampling Strategy
Describe the sampling strategy whether it was stratified, random, etc. Describe the sampling and stratification basis and process. (i.e., customers, rebates, installations, etc.) Is there adequate discussion of the sampling process? Discuss problems with the strategy / basis if appropriate. A score of 3 indicated that the sampling strategy and basis was sufficient.
Fieldwork and Validation
What type of fieldwork was used to collect the data?How well is the data collection process explained? Describe the field work and validation of the data. This score reflected the adequacy of the field work done in collecting data and the thoroughness with which the data was validated.
Methodology Is the description of the methodology adequate? Discuss the methodology implemented in the study. Were alternative models estimated or considered? Was the final selection of models well justified? Was data attrition sufficiently explained? Does the study adequately discuss the results of its model?
SERA
EUL STUDY – BEST PRACTICES ISSUES Small sample size
Population list problems; needs vary by lifetime of measure
Omitted other models Potential variations by measure type; easy to
add; improves potential fit; not a priori Ambiguous failure dates
Frequent surveys; “bound”, labeling, phone survey for some
Poor documentation in report Methodology, weighting, failures, conclusions
Results not put in context Over time; other studies
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EUL VALUES USED IN US - RESIDENTIAL
Lighting HVAC Shell & OtherLighting – CFL Bulbs: 6-8 years, with some recent work starting to incorporate variations based on assumptions about hours per day that the bulb operates
Hardwired fixtures – 15-20 years for interior and exterior fixtures
Lamps (table or touchier) – 5-10 years for most studies[1], depending on type
Occupancy sensors – 10-15 years
HVAC replacement – 15-25 years
HVAC and water heating in Energy Star – 15-25 years
Room A/C – 11-15 years
Programmable thermostat – 10-12 years
Whole house fans – 25 years
Attic ventilation fans with thermostat controls – 19 years
Duct sealing and air sealing – each 15-20 years
Insulation 20-25 years
Duct insulation – 20 years
Windows – 20-35 years
Weatherization – combined measures – 20-25 years
Pipe wrap – 10-20 years
Tank temperature turn down – 4-7 years
Note – some differences in values between CA, NW, NE values – Especially usage / weather based…
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10
EUL VALUES USED IN US - COMMERCIAL
Lighting HVACLighting – CFL Bulbs: 3.4-6 years with some recent work starting to incorporate variations based on assumptions about hours per day that the bulb operates in business locations
Fluorescent fixture – 11-16 years
Hardwired CFL – 10-15 years
HID (interior & exterior) 13-15 years
Occupancy sensors – 8-15 years
Daylighting dimming – 9-10 years
Packaged AC / HP – 12-15 years
Chillers – 19-23 years
Economizers – 7-15 years
Energy Management Systems (EMS) – 10-15 years
Motors – 13-20 years
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11
ISSUES IN EULs Process values lacking (small sample size) Some dependent on operating assumptions Some end-uses missing / gaps
CFLs, lighting – updated with operating hours Measures with limited (unreliable or zero) studies – some with
much attributable savings Models of air compress, A/C, cook, hvac, refrig/freezer,
process, shell, (motors/pumps, dryers, lighting), ASD/VSD in some sectors
Missing for plug loads Building shell – at least verify Priority depends on future savings, rarity, variations; waiting
hurts EUL data Trend toward simplified tables, BUT research shows strong
variations in turnover by business type
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EULs FOR BEHAVIORAL PROGRAMS Missing for behavioral / educational programs
2 studies CBSM Best practices with nuances - Partial retention;
frequency of data collection; large surveys and random assignment
Retention of “upstream” complicated
SERA
MEASURE LIFETIME ESTIMATES / RETENTION
Behavioral / Outreach Programs
Examples Only 1-2 examples (Harrigan), short term; a few recent additions (Peters)
Gaps / Issues Missing for behavioral, education/ training, commissioning, othersImportant –parallel concept to technical degradationNeed “partial” retention conceptLack of exploration; Months? Years?Lack of existing research on behavioral retentionRemaining useful lifetime / baseline issues
Best Practices /Rec’m for Behavioral / Outreach
Presumably similar approach, but consider data acquisition differences and data uncertainties
SERA14
VARIATIONS IN PERSISTENCEEULs
General results Early work in NW – gravitation to CA values. CA requires ex post statistical verification, but for subset of measures – led to refinements. Some measures with inadequate / missing – especially behavioral
Variations by Program type
Almost all EUL results are by measure, not by program design or incentive provided. Not clear if they should vary by program type.
Variations for behavioral vs. measure-based programs
Missing for behavioral programs including education / training, commissioning training, and similar programs.
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ISSUES / PROBLEMS Best practices Results / gaps TDF RUL Behavioral Key component of program savings
Potential bias away from new, creative Risk Complexities for behavioral
Little primary research / dormant / agreement
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CONCLUSIONS – MEASURE LIFETIMES
Measure lifetimes are a key element in the calculation of energy savings from energy efficiency programs
Measure lifetimes (and methods) are fairly consistent for many measure-based programs in residential and commercial sectors Issue of simplified EUL tables / caution
Shortage of primary research on technical degradation (TDF); shortage of research on RULs
Virtual absence of studies addressing retention or persistence of energy savings from behavioral and education programs
Identifying the measure lifetimes of behavioral and education programs is complicated as more media messages on behavior and education “bleed” across territories
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RECOMMENDATIONS – MEASURE LIFETIMES
Conduct measure lifetime studies on: Process equipment, some shell measures, cooking, refrigeration,
and air compressors
Conduct technical degradation studies that account for mechanical and behavioral performance-related changes
Conduct studies on retention or persistence of energy savings from behavioral and education programs
Require new behavioral programs to conduct retention assessments every year or two
Apply different evaluation methods to a variety of behavioral programs
SERA
NEXT STEPS / RESEARCH NEEDED
Behavioral / Outreach Programs
Retention Studies of retention of behavioral Consider data acquisition differences and data uncertainties (date?, data collection frequency)Best practices with nuances – partial retention, retention of “upstream” complicatedRUL researchComparison of results for key factors affecting retention before values can be adopted / transferred as with measures currently (quality? Audience?, other?)
SERA
CONTEXT DISCUSSION Investment dollars at risk Debate over precision
Granger – evaluation to avoid making wrong decisions Multiple applications… varying precision needs?
Program decisions to be advised include: Public dollars responsibly spent Apportionment of dollars between strategies
Precision based on value / cost of possibility of wrong decision… Yes/No vs. precise level of shareholder dollars…
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KEY USES OF EVALUATION RESULTS / PRECISION NEEDS
By Use / Application By Considerations
Assessing progress Uncertainty small, low cost, small value implications, e.g.small resid programs
Information on C/E
DSM planning input (tradeoff)
Paying participant
Paying utility incentive
Alternative supply High certainty needed, large impacts, large cost
Deemed
Increasing Rigor(& cost)
Detailed M&V, site verification, +
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Persistence
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QUESTIONS?
Project Manager contact:Lisa A. Skumatz, Ph.D. Skumatz Economic Research Associates (SERA)762 Eldorado Drive, Superior, CO 80027Phone: 303/494-1178Email: [email protected]