Sejarah Pemikiran Ekonomi Teori Bunga

Sejarah Pemikiran Ekonomi Teori Bunga

Oleh : Soewito

Summary ' ^ . -

A historical review on existing interest theories distinguishes three categories of approaches. Firstly, the non-monetary theories assert that the rate of interest is determined by the rate of investment return. Money is considered to be neutral. Through Wicsteed's marginal productivity theory and Bonm Bawerk's present preference for goods over the future's. Fisher develops the concept of marginal rate of return over cost for the expected rate of investment return. Secondly, the monetary theories declare that the flow of funds in the money and capital market affect the interest rate. There is an interconnection between preference for liquidity driven by speculative motives and the present & future rate of interest. Thirdly, the Post-Keynesian theory represented by Hicks uses the simultaneous equilibrium analysis between the money & capital market and the market as well as the market for goods, will occur simultaneously at a certain income and a certain rate of interest.

The interest rate theory has proven its usefulness as a tool in regulating the efficient allocation of resources, prices, income and employment opportunities in the developed countries. However, as to how the application would be in the developing countries, is still a question, considering first, the validity of the assumption on the role of the financial institutes, and second, the tendency of using capital intensive technology which does not suit with reality.

E K I , Vol. X X X n , No. 4, December 1984 481

1 . Pendahuluan

D a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n m o d e r n f a k t o r - f a k t o r p r o d u k s i d a p a t d i g o l o n g k a n m e n j a d i 4 y a i t u : t a n a h , t e n a g a k e r j a , m o d a l d a n p e n g u s a h a . F a k t o r - f a k t o r p r o d u k s i t e r s e b u t m e n e r i m a b a l a s j a s a ( r e w a r d ) m a s i n g - m a s i n g : t a n a h b e r u p a s e w a t a n a h , t e n a g a k e r j a m e n e r i m a u p a h , m o d a l m e m p e r o l e h b u n g a d a n p e n g u s a h a m e n d a p a t k e u n t u n g a n .

S e j a k j a m a n d a h u l u p e r h a t i a n o r a n g a t a s m a s a l a h b u n g a a m a t b e s a r . P a r a c e r d i k p a n d a i s e p e r t i A r i s t o t e l e s ( 3 5 0 t a h u n S e b e l u m M a s e h i ) , T h o m a s A q u i n a s ( 1 2 5 0 ) m e l a r a n g p e m u n g u t a n a t a s b u n g a . A r i s t o t e l e s m e l a r a n g p e n a -r i k a n b u n g a d e n g a n a l a s a n b a h w a m o d a l ( u a n g ) t i d a k m e n g h a s i l k a n u a n g . K a u m S c h o l a s t i k d i E r o p a h B a r a t ( a b a d 1 3 — 1 6 ) b e r p e n d a p a t b a h w a m e m u n g u t b u n g a p i n j a m a n u n t u k k e p e r l u a n k o n s u m s i a d a l a h d o s a , t e t a p i m e m u n g u t b u n g a p i n j a m a n y a n g d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e m b e l i b a r a n g - b a r a n g p r o d u k s i d a p a t d i b e n a r k a n . ' S e d a n g k a n a l i m u l a m a p a d a u m u m n y a m e n g a n g g a p b u n g a s e b a g a i r i b a . L a r a n g a n p e m u n g u t a n b u n g a o l e h p i h a k g e r e j a i t u d a p a t b e r t a b a n b e r a b a d - a b a d l a m a n y a .

B a g a i m a n a p a n d a n g a n I s l a m t e n t a n g b u n g a ? D i d a l a m A l Q u r ' a n h a n y a d i s e b u t p a s a l " r i b a " . A r t i s e s u n g g u b n y a k a t a r i b a a d a l a h " s u r p l u s " , k e l e b i h a n a t a u t a m b a h a n . M e n u r u t p e n u l i s m o d e r n p e r k a t a a n r i b a d i a r t i k a n ' " p e m e r a s -a n " , s e b a g a i t e r m a s u k i s t i l a h r i b a . ^ D r . M o h . H a t t a y a n g a l i m u l a m a d a n j u g a s e o r a n g a h l i e k o n o m i r u p a n y a s e p e n d a p a t d e n g a n k a u m S c h o l a s t i k y a i t u p a n t a n g a n m e m u n g u t b u n g a p i n j a m a n b a g i k e p e r l u a n k o n s u m s i d a n d a p a t m e m b e n a r k a n p e m u n g u t a n b u n g a p i n j a m a n u n t u k b a r a n g - b a r a n g p r o d u k s i g u n a m e l a k u k a n u s a h a , k a r e n a b u n g a m e r u p a k a n b a g i a n d a r i k e u n t u n g a n . '

T e o r i b u n g a d a l a m s e j a r a h p e r k e m b a n g a n n y a m e n g a l a m i p e r u b a h a n d a n p e r k e m b a n g a n , t e o r i y a n g b a r u p a d a u m u m n y a m e l e n g k a p i d a n m e m p e r b a i k i t e o r i y a n g s u d a h a d a .

1 H a r r y L a n d r e t h , History of Economic Theory, H o u g h t o n M i f f l i n C o m p a n y , B o s t o n , 1 9 7 6 , h a l . 1 8 .

2 Ir. Kaslan T o h i r , Pengantar Ekonomi Tentang Uang-Kredit-Bank, j i l i d 2 P T G u n u n g A g u n g , J a k a r t a , 1 9 7 0 , h a l . 5 9 .

3 D r . M o h . H a t t a , Fasal-fasal Ekonomi IJ, D i n a s p e n e r b i t a n B a l a i P u s t a k a , J a k a r t a , 1 9 5 8 , h a l . 2 1 5 .

4 8 2 E K I , V o l . XXXn, N o . 4 , D e c e m b e r 1 9 8 4

T e o r i b u n g a d a p a t d i b e d a k a n m e n j a d i 3 k e l o m p o k :

( 1 ) N o n m o n e t e r , m e n e k a n k a n k e k u a t a n - k e k u a t a n r i i l j a n g k a p a n j a n g seb a g a i f a k t o r y a n g m e n e n t u k a n t i n g k a t b u n g a ( a k h i r M e r k a n t i l i s m e -t a h u n 1 9 3 0 ) .

( 2 ) M o n e t e r , m e n e k a n k a n p a d a f a k t o r m o n e t e r s e b a g a i p e n e n t u t i n g k a t b u n g a y a i t u " l o a n a b l e f u n d s t h e o r y " d a n " l i q u i d i t y p r e f e r e n c e t h e o r y " .

( 3 ) P o s t K e y n e s i a n , y a n g m e n s i n t e s e k a n k e d u a p e n d e k a t a n y a n g d i s e b u t -k a n d i a t a s , d i k e m b a n g k a n o l e h J . R . H i c k s .

A p a y a n g d a p a t d i s u m b a n g k a n o l e h t e o r i b u n g a ? A p a b i l a k i t a m e n g a m a t i p e r e k o n o m i a n n e g a r a m a j u , t i n g k a t b u n g a m e m p u n y a i p e r a n a n p e n t i n g b a i k p a d a t i n g k a t a n ( l e v e l ) m i k r o m a u p u n m a k r o . D a l a m t i n g k a t m i k r o , t i n g k a t b u n g a m e r u p a k a n h a r g a y a n g b e r p e r a n a n d a l a m alokasi sumber untuk penggunaan altematif. D a l a m e k o n o m i m a k r o t i n g k a t b u n g a m e r u p a k a n f a k t o r y a n g d a p a t b e r p e n g a r u b p a d a tingkat harga umum, pendapatan dan kesempatan kerja.

D a l a m m a k a l a h i n i a k a n d i u r a i k a n p e r k e m b a n g a n t e o r i b u n g a , y a i t u t e n t a n g f a k t o r - f a k t o r y a n g m e n e n t u k a n b e s a r n y a b u n g a m e l a l u i 3 p e n d e k a t a n y a n g d i s e b u t k a n d i a t a s . P e n g e t a h u a n t e r s e b u t d i p a n d a n g r e l e v a n d a l a m k a i t a n n y a d e n g a n u s a h a p e m b a n g u n a n d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g d i m a n a t i n g k a t b u n g a s u d a h n a m p a k p e r a n a n n y a .

S e j a r a h s e r i n g t e r u l a n g k e m b a l i s e h i n g g a k i t a d a p a t m e m e t i k p e l a j a r a n d e n g a n p e n y e s u a i a n k a r e n a k e a d a a n y a n g b e r b e d a a t a u m u n g k i n t e l a h b e r u b a b . M i s a l n y a p e n d a p a t R i c a r d o t e n t a n g s e w a t a n a h p a d a w a k t u i t u i a m e n g a t a k a n : " r e n t i s p r i c e d d e t e r m i n e d " , * a d a b e n a r n y a a p a b i l a k i t a h u b u n g -k a n d e n g a n k e a d a a n d i I n d o n e s i a . B a h w a s e w a t a n a h ( s e b a g a i f a k t o r o n g k o s ) t i d a k m e n e n t u k a n h a r g a , t e t a p i h a r g a g u l a l e b i h m e n e n t u k a n b e s a r n y a s e w a t a n a h u n t u k t a n a m a n t e b u .

2. Teori bunga non-moneter

M e n u r u t t e o r i i n i b e s a r n y a t i n g k a t b u n g a t e r g a n t u n g p a d a b e s a r n y a h a s i l ( r a t e o f r e t u r n ) d a r i p a d a i n v e s t a s i . K e k u a t a n m o n e t e r d a l a m j a n g k a p e n d e k d a p a t m e n g u b a h t i n g k a t b u n g a , t e t a p i d a l a m j a n g k a p a n j a n g b e s a r n y a t i n g k a t ' b u n g a d i t e n t u k a n o l e h p r o d u k t i v i t a s m o d a l . P e n a m b a h a n j u m l a h u a n g h a n y a , m e n a i k k a n h a r g a u m u m d a n m e n u r u n k a n n i l a i u a n g . P a n d a n g a n t e r s e b u t b e r -

4 H a r r y L a n d r e t h , op cit, h a l 8 8

E K I , V o l . X X X n , N o . 4 , D e c e m b e r 1 9 8 4

a s a l d a r i t e o r i K l a s i k b a h w a a d a d i c h o t o m i d a l a m p e n e n t u a n h a r g a d i s e k t o r r i i l d a n m o n e t e r . M e n u r u t K l a s i k u a n g t i d a k b e r p e n g a r u h p a d a p a s a r b a r a n g , k a r e n a u a n g h a n y a s e b a g a i " v e i l " ( t a b i r ) a t a u d e n g a n k a t a l a i n u a n g b e r s i f a t n e t r a l .

S e j a k A d a m S m i t h s a m p a i t i m b u l n y a t e o r i p r o d u k t i v i t a s m a r g i n a l , b u n g a b e l u m t e r p i s a h d a r i k e u n t u n g a n . B a r u d e n g a n p e r k e m b a n g a n t e o r i p r o d u k t i v i t a s m a r g i n a l a h l i e k o n o m i d e n g a n h a t i - h a t i m e m i s a h k a n a n t a r a k e u n t u n g a n d a n b u n g a ; p e r k e m b a n g a n t e o r i m o d a l d a n b u n g a d i m u l a i s e j a k t a h u n 1 8 9 0 . A h l i - a h l i s e p e r t i S c h u m p e t e r , F i s h e r d a n K n i g h t a d a l a h y a n g s e c a r a f i l o s o f i s m e n j e l a s k a n s i f a t m o d a l d a n b u n g a .

M e n u r u t A d a m S m i t h ( 1 7 2 3 - 1 7 9 0 ) k e u n t u n g a n m e r u p a k a n p e m b a y a r a n k e p a d a k a p i t a l i s k a r e n a m e l a k u k a n f u n g s i s o s i a l y a n g b e r g u n a , m e n y e d i a -k a n b u r u h , m a t e r i a l d a n m e s i n d a l a m p r o s e s p r o d u k s i . O l e h k a r e n a i t u k e u n t u n g a n t e r d i r i d a r i 2 b a g i a n y a i t u : a pure interest return d a n a return risk A A d a m S m i t h m e n g e m u k a k a n b a h w a t i n g k a t k e u n t u n g a n c e n d e r u n g t u r u n d a l a m j a n g k a p a n j a n g k a r e n a 3 h a l y a i t u : a d a n y a p e r s a i n g a n d i p a s a r t e n a g a k e r j a , p e r s a i n g a n d i p a s a r b a r a n g d a n p e r s a i n g a n d i p a s a r i n v e s t a s i . T e o r i t u r u n n y a k e u n t u n g a n i n i o l e h K a r l M a r x d i g u n a k a n s e b a g a i a r g u m e n t a s i b a g i h a n c u r n y a k a p i t a l i s m e .

R i c a r d o ( 1 7 7 2 - 1 8 2 3 ) j u g a t i d a k m e m i s a h k a n a n t a r a k e u n t u n g a n d a n b u n g a k a r e n a p a d a w a k t u i t u a n t a r a p e n y e d i a m o d a l d a n p e n g u s a h a m a s i h m e n j a d i s a t u . B a i k R i c a r d o m a u p u n A d a m S m i t h t i d a k m e n g u p a s l e b i h l a n j u t t e n t a n g k e u n t u n g a n k a r e n a t e r i k a t p a d a t e o r i n i l a i n y a y a i t u l a b o r theory of. value.

S u m b a n g a n y a n g s a n g a t p e n t i n g t e n t a n g k e u n t u n g a n d a n t e o r i n i l a i p a d a a w a l p o s R i c a r d i a n a d a l a h o l e h N a s s a u S e n i o r y a n g p e r t a m a k a l i m e -n g e m b a n g k a n abstinence theory of interest. S e n i o r d a l a m t e o r i n i l a i n y a m e m b e r i t e k a n a n y a n g l e b i h b e s a r p a d a k e g u n a a n ( u t i l i t y ) s e g i p e r m i n t a a n d i b a n -d i n g R i c a r d o ; p a d a seg i p e n a w a r a n i a m e n e k a n k a n k e t i d a k g u n a a n ( d i s u t i l i t y ) s e b a g a i o n g k o s p r o d u k s i r i i l . K e m u d i a n i a h a n y a m e n g e m b a n g k a n b a g i a n d a r i t e o r i b u n g a ( a k h i r a b a d 1 9 ) d e n g a n m e m e g a n g a s u m s i K l a s i k y a n g m e n e k a n k a n p a d a s e g i p e n a w a r a n , m e n y e l i d i k i f a k t o r - f a k t o r y a n g m e n e n t u k a n p e n a w a r a n t a b u n g a n . I a m e n g a t a k a n b a h w a p e n a w a r a n t a b u n g a n a d a l a h e l a s t i s s e m p u r n a , d a n m e n g e m u k a k a n b a h w a a k i b a t m e n a b u n g d a p a t d i s a m a k a n d e n g a n p e n d e r i t a a n y a n g d i r a s a k a n o l e h o r a n g m i s k i n . O l e h k a r e n a i t u m e n a b u n g p e r l u m e n d a p a t g a n t i r u g i b e r u p a b u n g a .

5 H a r r y L a n d r e t h , op cit, hal. 6 2

484 E K I , Vol. XXXn, No. 4, December 1984

P a d a t a h u n 1 8 9 4 P . H . W i c s t e e d m e n g e l u a r k a n p a m f l e t y a n g b e i j u d u l : " C o o r d i n a t i o n o f t h e L a w s o f D i s t r i b u t i o n " d a n m e n g a t a k a n b a h w a t e o r i K l a s s i k t i d a k c u k u p u n t u k m e n j e l a s k a n s e w a t a n a h , u p a h d a n b u n g a , t e t a p i t e o r i p r o d u k t i v i t a s m a r g i n a l l e b i h b a i k s e b a g a i p r i n s i p t e r p a d u u n t u k m e n j e l a s k a n b a l a s j a s a f a k t o r - f a k t o r p r o d u k s i . * A h l i - a h h e k o n o m i K l a s i k m e -n g a s u m s i k a n p e n a w a r a n y a n g " g i v e n " , p e r m i n t a a n y a n g m e n e n t u k a n h a r g a . K e m u d i a n p a d a t a h u n 1 8 9 0 M a r s h a l l b e r b a s i l m e n g g a b u n g k a n k e d u a p e n d a p a t t e r s e b u t d a n m e n g a t a k a n b a h w a h a r g a d i t e n t u k a n o l e h p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n .

T e o r i m a r g i n a l i s b a n y a k m e n g g u n a k a n m a t e m a t i k k h u s u s n y a a l j a b a r d i f r e n s i a l :

M P P L = ^ L A L

M P P j ^ = A T P . A M

M P P L = p r o d u k m a r g i n a l d a r i t e n a g a k e r j a . A L = t a m b a h a n t e n a g a k e r j a y a n g d i p e k e r j a k a n . i •

M P P j ^ j = p r o d u k m a r g i n a l d a r i m o d a l i A M = t a m b a h a n m o d a l 1 A T P = t a m b a h a n p r o d u k t o t a l ,

D a l a m p e r s a i n g a n s e m p u r n a b e r l a k u " p r o d u c t e x h a u s t i o n " , y a i t u :

Q = M P P L . L + M P P j y j . M

a t a u

Q . P Q = ( P Q . M P P L ) . L + ( P Q . M P P , ^ ) . M J

= W . L + i . M .

Q = p r o d u k t o t a l P Q = h a r g a p r o d u k

W = u p a h ' , ' I

i = h a r g a m o d a l L = J u m l a h t e n a g a k e r j a , M = j u m l a h m o d a l

6 H a i r y L a n d r e t h , op cit, h a l . 2 4 7 .

E K I , V o l . X X X n , N o . 4 , D e c e m b e r 1 9 8 4 4 8 5

W a l a u p u n a n a l i s i s p r o d u k t i v i t a s m a r g i n a l d i m a k s u d k a n u n t u k m e n j e l a s k a n h a r g a f a k t o r - f a k t o r p r o d u k s i d a n d i s t r i b u s i p e n d a p a t a n ( r e l a t i f ) , n a m u n d a p a t j u g a d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e n j e l a s k a n t i n g k a t k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a . K e s u l i t a n t e o r i i n i s e b a g a i t e o r i k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a y a i t u k a r e n a a s u m s i n y a b a h w a p e n u r u n a n u p a h t i d a k d i i k u t i o l e h p e n u r u n a n b a r a n g - b a r a n g a k h i r y a n g o l e h K e y n e s d i k a t a k a n k u r a n g m e m p e r h a t i k a n p e r m i n t a a n a g r e g a t . T o k o h - t o k o h t e o r i m a r g i n a l a d a l a h J e v o n , M e n g e r d a n L e o n W a l r a s .

K r i t i k t e r h a d a p t e o r i p r o d u k t i v i t a s m a r g i n a l a n t a r a l a i n d a t a n g d a r i F . W . T a u s s i g ( 1 9 5 9 - 1 9 4 9 ) y a n g m e n g a t a k a n a d a l a h t i d a k m u n g k i n u n t u k m e n g u k u r m a s i n g - m a s i n g p r o d u k t i v i t a s m a r g i n a l f a k t o r p r o d u k s i , k a r e n a f a k t o r - f a k t o r p r o d u k s i d i g u n a k a n s e c a r a b e r s a m a a n . '

2.1. Teori bunga dari Bohm Baweik

l a a d a l a h p e n g i k u t M e n g e r d a n W i e s e r y a n g m e n g u p a s m a s a l a h m o d a l d a n b u n g a . B u k u n y a " C a p i t a l a n d I n t e r e s t , A C r i t i c a l H i s t o r y o f F c o n o m i c a l T h e c q y " y a n g t e r b i t d i J e r m a n p a d a t a h u n 1 8 8 4 m e n g k i r i t i k t e o r i b u n g a seb e l u m n y a y a n g m e n g a t a k a n b a h w a b u n g a a d a l a h b a l a s j a s a d a r i m o d a l . P a d a t a h u n 1 8 8 8 i a m e n u l i s " T h e P o s i t i v e T h e o r y o f C a p i t a l " a n t a r a l a i n m e n g e m u k a k a n :

P r e s e n t g o o d s a r e as r u l e w o r t h m o r e t h a n f u t u r e g o o d s o f l i k e k i n d a n d n u m b e r . '

P e r n y a t a a n t e r s e b u t t e r k e n a l d e n g a n teori agio. I a m e m p e r t a h a n k a n p e n d a p a t b a h w a s e b a b a d a n y a b u n g a t i d a k t e r d a p a t p a d a s t r u k t u r l e m b a g a m a s y a r a k a t , t e t a p i p a d a p e r t i m b a n g a n t e k n o l o g i d a n e k o n o m i y a n g t i d a k t e r g a n t u n g p a d a b e n t u k m a s y a r a k a t n y a .

B o h m B a w e r k m e n g e m u k a k a n 3 a l a s a n m e n g a p a b a r a n g - b a r a n g s e k a r a n g n i l a i n y a l e b i h b e s a r d a r i w a k t u y a n g a k a n d a t a n g , d a n f a k t o r i n i l a h y a n g m e n e n t u k a n / m e n c i p t a k a n b u n g a .

( i ) P e r b e d a a n p e n i l a i a n b a r a n g s e k a r a n g d a n y a n g a k a n d a t a n g k a r e n a p e r -b e d a a n k e a d a a n , k e i n g i n a n .

( i i ) K a r e n a k u r a n g t e p a t n y a p e r k i r a a n ( u n d e r e s t i m a t e ) t e n t a n g k e i n g i n a n y a n g a k a n d a t a n g .

( i i i ) K a r e n a b a r a n g - b a r a n g s e k a r a n g s e c a r a t e k n i s l e b i h b a i k d a r i p a d a y a n g

7 Harry Landreth, op cit, hal. 257. 8 Harry Landreth, op cit, hal. 265.


a k a n d a t a n g ( t h e t e c h n i c a l s u p p e r i o r o f p r e s e n t g o o d s o v e r f u t u r e g o o d s ) .

2.2. Teori bunga Fisher

W a l a u p u n F i s h e r m e n g g u n a k a n d a s a r d a r i B o h m B a w e r k n a m u n b e r b e d a . I a m e n u l i s b a k u " T h e T h e o r y o f t h e R a t e o f I n t e r e s t " ( 1 9 0 7 ) k e m u d i a n d i p e r b a i k i d e n g a n t e r b i t n y a " T h e T h e o r y o f I n t e r e s t " ( 1 9 3 0 ) . F i s h e r s e t u j u d e n g a n k l a s i f i k a s i : u p a h , s e w a t a n a h , k e u n t u n g a n d a n b u n g a . I a m e n g a t a k a n b a h w a b u n g a b u k a n b a g i a n p e n d a p a t a n y a n g d i t e r i m a o l e h m o d a l , t e t a p i seb a g i a n d a r i a l i r a n p e n d a p a t a n . S e m u a f a k t o r p r o d u k s i m e n g h a s i l k a n a l i r a n p e n d a p a t a n s e t i a p w a k t u . A p a b i l a b a l a s j a s a t a n a h y a n g b e r u p a s e w a t a n a h d i k a p i t a l i s a s i k a n t e r h a d a p n i l a i t a n a h h a s f l n y a a d a l a h b u n g a . F i s h e r b e r k e s i m -p u l a n " i n t e r e s t i s n o t p a r t , b u t t h e w h o l e o f i n c o m e " . '

T i n g k a t b u n g a u n t u k m e n g u k u r h a r g a , d i m a n a i n d i v i d u l e b i h m e n g -h a r g a i p e n e r i m a a n p e n d a p a t a n s e k a r a n g d a r i p a d a w a k t u y a n g a k a n d a t a n g . M e n u r u t F i s h e r , p a d a p e r e k o n o m i a n p a s a r a d a 2 k e k u a t a n y a n g m e n e n t u k a n t i n g k a t b u n g a : ( i ) . Subjective forces, y a i t u p r e f e r e n s i i n d i v i d u t e r h a d a p b a r a n g , ( i i ) . Objective forces, t e r g a n g u n g p a d a k e s e m p a t a n i n v e s t a s i d a n p r o d u k t i v i t a s f a k t o r p r o d u k s i u n t u k m e n g h a s i l k a n b a r a n g a k h i r .

T i n g k a t k e u n t u n g a n i n v e s t a s i y a n g d i h a r a p k a n o l e h F i s h e r d i s e b u t n y a marginal rate of return over cost a d a l a h s a m a d e n g a n k o n s e p K e y n e s t e n t a n g marginal efficiency of capital.

3. Teori bunga moneter 4 . 4 -P a d a b a g i a n i n i a k a n d i u r a i k a n 2 t e o r i m a s i n g - m a s i n g :

3.1. Loanable funds theory." . xx • S i f a t d a r i p a d a p e n d e k a t a n i n i a d a l a h m e n e k a n k a n p a d a a l i r a n u a n g d a n s u r a t - s u r a t b e r h a r g a . A p a b i l a p e r s e d i a a n ( s t o c k ) u a n g d a n o b l i g a s i b e r u b a h a t a u a p a b i l a h a r a p a n b e r u b a h m a k a r e n c a n a u n t u k m e m e g a n g a k t i v a ( a s s e t ) a k a n m e n j a d i t i d a k k o n s i s t e n d e n g a n p e r s e d i a a n y a n g a d a . M a k a t r a n s a k s i b a r u a k a n t e r j a d i d a n h a r g a o b l i g a s i a k a n b e r u b a h s a m p a i k e s e i m b a n g a n p e r s e d i a a n b a r u t e r c a p a i . D e n g a n a d a n y a p e r u b a h a n k e s e i m b a n g a n t e r s e b u t , b e b e r a p a o r a n g m e n a w a r k a n u a n g d a n y a n g l a i n m e m e r l u k a n u a n g . T e r j a d i -

9 H a r r y L a n d r e t h , op cit, h a l . 2 7 0 . 1 0 W h i t t l e s e y , e t a l , Money and Banking, Analysis and Policy, T h e M a c M i l l a n C o m

p a n y , N e w Y o r k , 1 9 6 5 , h a L 3 8 0 - 3 8 4 .

E K I , VoL XXXn, No. 4, December 1984 487

l a h a l i r a n d a n a p i n j a m a n ( l o a n a b l e f u n d s ) d a r i " l e n d e r " k e p a d a " b o r r o w e r s " . T i n g k a t b u n g a k e s e i m b a n g a n a k a n t e r j a d i p a d a w a k t u p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n " l o a n a b l e f u n d s " s a m a b e s a r .

K o m p o n e n d a r i p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n " l o a n a b l e f u n d s " d a p a t d i -k l a s i f i k a s i k a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

Sumber penawaran: t a b u n g a n k o t o r r u m a h t a n g g a , t a b u n g a n k o t o r p e r u s a b a a n , " d i s h o a r d i n g " , d a n p e r u b a h a n n e t o p e n a w a r a n u a n g . Sumber permintaan: i n v e s t a s i n e t o p e r u s a b a a n , p e n g g a n t i a n m o d a l t e t a p d a n i n v e s t a s i ( r e i n v e s t m e n t ) m o d a l k e r j a , " d i s s a v i n g " , d a n k e n a i k a n u a n g k a s ( i d l e b a l a n c e ) o l e h p a r a p e m i n j a m .

3.2. Liquidity preference theory

K e y n e s m e m b e d a k a n 3 m o t i f o r a n g m e m e g a n g u a n g y a i t u : m o t i f t r a n s a k s i , b e i j a g a - j a g a d a n s p e k u l a s i . ' '

Permintaan uang untuk transaksi R u m a h t a n g g a , p e r u s a b a a n , p e m e r i n -t a h a n m e m e g a n g u a n g k a s a p a b i l a a n t a r a p e n e r i m a a n d a n p e n g e l u a r a n n y a t i d a k s i n k r o n . M a k i n l a m a t e n g g a n g w a k t u a n t a r a p e n e r i m a a n d a n p e n g e l u a r a n p e n d a p a t a n u a n g , m a k i n b e s a r j u m l a h u a n g y a n g d i p e g a n g . O l e h k a r e n a i t u d a p a t d i a s u m s i k a n b a h w a d a l a m j a n g k a p e n d e k m e m e g a n g u a n g u n t u k t r a n s a k s i a d a l a h f u n g s i d a r i p e n d a p a t a n a t a u M j = L j ( Y ) .

Permintaan uang untuk berjaga-jaga. O r a n g m e n y i m p a n u a n g u n t u k b e r j a g a - j a g a k a r e n a a d a n y a k e t i d a k p a s t i a n t e n t a n g p e n e r i m a a n d a n p e n g e l u a r a n y a n g a k a n d a t a n g . P e r m i n t a a n u a n g i n i m i r i p d e n g a n m o t i f t r a n s a k s i y a i t u t u r u n a p a b i l a a r u s p e n e r i m a a n p e n d a p a t a n b e r l a n g s u n g l e b i h s e r i n g . A p a b i l a p e n d a p a t a n n a i k , u a n g y a n g d i s e d i a k a n n a i k s e l a m a t i n g k a t k o n s u m s i n a i k . S e b a g a i m a n a p a d a m o t i f t r a n s a k s i , m o t i f m e m e g a n g u a n g d a l a m j a n g k a p e n d e k u n t u k k e p e r l u a n b e r j a g a - j a g a a d a l a h s t a b i l d a n d a p a t d i n y a t a k a n M ^ = L j ( Y ) . , . ,

Permintaan uang untuk spekulasi A h l i e k o n o m i K l a s i k m e n g e m u k a k a n m o t i f t r a n s a k s i d a n b e r j a g a - j a g a s e b a g a i a l a s a n y a n g r a s i o n a l u n t u k m e m e g a n g u a n g . K e y n e s m e n g e m u k a k a n m o t i f s p e k u l a s i s e b a g a i t a m b a h a n a l a s a n y a n g r a s i o n a l u n t u k m e m e g a n g u a n g . S e l a n j u t n y a i a m e n g a t a k a n b a h w a m o t i f t e r s e b u t b e r g a n t u n g p a d a h u b u n g a n a n t a r a t i n g k a t b u n g a s e k a r a n g d a n y a n g a k a n d a t a n g . U a n g m u n g k i n l e b i h b a i k s e b a g a i a l a t m e n y i m p a n k e k a y a a n ( s t o r e o f v a l u e ) d a r i p a d a o b l i g a s i d a n s u r a t b e r h a r g a l a i n n y a .

1 1 E u g e n e A . D i u l i o , Macroeconomic Theory, S c h a u m ' s O u t l i n e S e r i e s , M c G r a w H i l l B o o k C o m p a n y , N e w Y o r k , 1 9 7 4 , h a L 1 0 7 .

4 8 8 E K I , V o l . X X X I I , N o . 4 , D e c e m b e r 1 9 8 4

M e n y i m p a n o b l i g a s i a d a k e m u n g k i n a n m e n d e r i t a k e r u g i a n ( c a p i t a l l o s t ) a p a b i l a t i n g k a t b u n g a n a i k d a n o b l i g a s i d i j u a l s e b e l u m w a k t u n y a . D i p i h a k l a i n m e m e g a n g o b l i g a s i t i d a k h a n y a m e m p e r o l e h b u n g a , t e t a p i j u g a k e m u n g k i n a n m e m p e r o l e h k e u n t u n g a n k a r e n a n a i k n y a h a r g a o b l i g a s i ( c a p i t a l g a i n ) .

A p a b i l a p a r a i n v e s t o r b e r h a r a p a t a u m e n d u g a p a d a w a k t u o b l i g a s i d i j u a l a k a n m e n d e r i t a k e r u g i a n l e b i h b e s a r d a r i t i n g k a t b u n g a , o r a n g a k a n l e b i h s u k a m e m e g a n g u a n g a t a u m e n y i m p a n n y a d i B a n k . A p a b i l a k e r u g i a n y a n g d i d u g a a k a n s a m a d e n g a n t i n g k a t b u n g a o r a n g d a l a m k e a d a a n " i n d i f f e r e n t " , a p a k a h m e m e g a n g u a n g a t a u o b l i g a s i s a m a sa j a . J a d i p e r m i n t a a n u a n g u n t u k s p e k u l a s i t e r g a n t u n g p a d a t i n g k a t b u n g a s e k a r a n g d a n p e n d a p a t -n y a t e n t a n g t i n g k a t b u n g a y a n g a k a n d a t a n g .

P a d a g a m b a r 1 .a p a d a t i n g k a t b u n g a i j t i d a k a d a p e r m i n t a a n o b l i g a s i , d a n a p a b i l a t i n g k a t b u n g a d i b a w a h i j m e m b e l i o b l i g a s i a k a n m e n d e r i t a r u g i . A n t a r a i j d a n i2 p e n d a p a t i n v e s t o r t e n t a n g a d a n y a k e r u g i a n ( n e g a t i v e r e t u r n ) a n t a r a p a r a i n v e s t o r a d a l a h b e r b e d a - b e d a . D i a t a s i2 s e m u a i n v e s t o r l e b i h s u k a m e m e g a n g o b l i g a s i , u m u m n y a m e r e k a p e r c a y a a k a n m e m p e r o l e h k e u n t u n g a n ( p o s i t i v e r e t u r n ) .

P a d a g a m b a r 1-b, p a d a t i n g k a t b u n g a d i a t a " i2 p a r a i n v e s t o r p e r c a y a b a h w a a k a n m e n g u n t u n g k a n a p a b i l a m e m e g a n g o b l i g a s i , m a k a t i d a k a d a p e r m i n t a a n u a n g . A n t a r a i j d a n i2 p e n d a p a t b e r b e d a - b e d a , d a n a p a b i l a t i n g k a t b u n g a s e k a r a n g t u r u n t e r u s s a m p a i i j s e j u m l a h i n v e s t o r p e r c a y a a k a n m e n d e r i t a r u g i a p a b i l a m e m e g a n g o b l i g a s i , d a n o l e h k a r e n a i t u p e r m i n t a a n u a n g u n t u k t u j u a n s p e k u l a s i m a k i n b e s a r ; p a d a t i n g k a t b u n g a i j d i s e b u t liquidity trap.

D a p a t d i s i m p u l k a n b a h w a p e r m i n t a a n u a n g u n t u k s p e k u l a s i L2 m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n n e g a t i f d e n g a n t i n g k a t b u n g a , d a n i n i l a h i n t i d a r i " l i q u i d i t y p r e f e r e n c e t h e o r y " .

4. Teori bunga — Post Keynesian a x T e o r i i n i m e r u p a k a n s i n t e s e p e n d e k a t a n m o n e t e r d a n n o n m o n e t e r y a n g d i k e m b a n g k a n J . R . H i c k s . D a l a m t e o r i i n i d i g u n a k a n a n a l i s i s k e s e i m b a n g a n s i m u l t a n a n t a r a p a s a r u a n g d a n p a s a r b a r a n g , b a h w a k e s i m b a n g a n t e r j a d i d i k e d u a p a s a r p a d a p e n d a p a t a n d a n t i n g k a t b u n g a y a n g s a m a .

L M Q d a n I S Q G a m b a r 2 m a s i n g - m a s i n g m e n u n j u k k a n k e s e i m b a n g a n a n t a r a p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n u a n g t e r j a d i p a d a t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n Y J , s e d a n g k a n k e s e i m b a n g a n a n t a r a p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n b a r a n g -b a r a n g b e r a d a p a d a t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n Y2. H a n y a a d a s a t u t i n g k a t b u n g a k e s e i m b a n g a n y a i t u i o d i m a n a p a s a r u a n g d a n p a s a r b a r a n g m e n g a l a m i k e -

E K I , V o l . X X X n , N o . 4 , D e c e m b e r 1 9 8 4 489

s e i m b a n g a n p a d a t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n Y Q . B e s a r n y a t i n g k a t b u n g a k e s e i m b a n g a n t e r g a n t u n g p a d a p o s i s i k u r v a

L M Q d a n I S Q . D i s i n i p e r l u k i r a n y a d i u r a i k a n f a k t o r - f a k t o r y a n g m e m p e n g a r u b i k e d u a k u r v a t e r s e b u t .

P a d a u m u m n y a k u r v a L M Q b e r g e s e r : ( 1 ) k e k a n a n a p a b i l a a d a k e n a i k a n j u m l a h u a n g a t a u p e n u r u n a n p e r m i n t a a n u a n g , d a n ( 2 ) b e r g e s e r k e k i r i a p a b i l a j u m l a h u a n g b e r k u r a n g a t a u p e r m i n t a a n u a n g b e r t a m b a h . S e d a n g k a n K u r v a I S Q a n t a r a l a i n d a p a t b e r g e s e r k a r e n a : ( 1 ) p e r u b a h a n p e n g e l u a r a n p e m e r i n t a h d a n p a j a k , d a n ( 2 ) k a r e n a p e r u b a h a n i n v e s t a s i o t o n o m ( a u t o n o m o u s i n v e s t m e n t ) .

E f e k t i v i t a s a n a l i s i s J . R . H i c k s d a l a m k e b i j a k s a n a a n m o n e t e r d a n f i s k a l u n t u k m e n i n g k a t k a n p e n d a p a t a n s a n g a t d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h l e r e n g ( s l o p e ) d a r i k e d u a k u r v a L M Q d a n I S Q . D a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n d e n g a n m o d e l 2 s e k t o r , " s l o p e " a t a u t i n g k a h l a k u k o e f i s i e n I S Q t e r s e b u t t e r g a n t u n g p a d a : ( i ) r e s p o n p e r u b a h a n i n v e s t a s i t e r h a d a p p e r u b a h a n t i n g k a t b u n g a , ( i i ) t e r g a n t u n g p a d a p r o p e n s i t a s k o n s u m s i m a r g i n a l . S e d a n g " s l o p e " k u r v a L M Q t e r g a n t u n g p a d a : ( i ) r e s p o n p e r m i n t a a n u a n g u n t u k s p e k u l a s i t e r h a d a p p e r u b a h a n t i n g k a t b u n g a , d a n ( i i ) t e r g a n t u n g p a d a h u b u n g a n a n t a r a p e r m i n t a a n u a n g u n t u k t r a n s a k s i d e n g a n t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n . ' '

5. Penutup S e p e r t i t e l a h d i k e m u k a k a n p a d a b a g i a n p e n d a h u l u a n b a h w a d i n e g a r a m a j u t i n g k a t b u n g a m e m p u n y a i p e r a n a n p e n t i n g d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n . T i n g k a t b u n g a d a p a t d i g u n a k a n a l a t a l o k a s i s u m b e r u n t u k p e n g g u n a a n a l t e m a t i f . T i n g k a t b u n g a j u g a m e m p a k a n f a k t o r y a n g d a p a t b e r p e n g a r u h p a d a t i n g k a t h a r g a u m u m , p e n d a p a t a n d a n k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a .

B a n k S e n t r a l d a p a t m e m p e n g a m b i j u m l a h u a n g y a n g b e r e d a r d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n d e n g a n m e n g e n a k a n j u m l a h u a n g p e r l u d i t a m b a h m a k a t i n g k a t b u n g a d i s k o n t o d i t u m n k a n s e h i n g g a B a n k K o m e r s i a l t e r t a r i k u n t u k m e n j u a l a l a t - a l a t k r e d i t j a n g k a p e n d e k n y a . D i I n d o n e s i a k e b i j a k s a n a a n i n i d i l a k s a n a k a n d a l a m b e n t u k k r e d i t l i k w i d i t a s d e n g a n s u k u b u n g a r e n d a h . ' '

D e n g a n t u m n n y a t i n g k a t b u n g a d i h a r a p k a n a k a n m e n d o r o n g i n v e s t a s i s e h i n g g a o u t p u t m e n i n g k a t d a n k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a p u n b e r t a m b a h . S e c a r a

1 2 E u g e n e A . D i u l i o , o p c i r , h a l . 1 5 1 - 1 5 6 .

1 3 D r s . F r e d y N a z a l , M A , Kuliah Teori Ekonomi Makro, P r o g r a m P e r e n c a n a a n N a s i o n a l , J a k a r t a , 1 9 7 6 .

4 9 0 E K I , V o l . X X X I I , N o . 4 , D e c e m b e r 1 9 8 4

l e b i h s p e s i f i k P e m e r i n t a h d a p a t j u g a m e n e n t u k a n t i n g k a t b u n g a y a n g r e n d a h b a g i s e k t o r e k o n o m i y a n g m e n u r u t p e r t i m b a n g a n P e m e r i n t a h v i t a l u n t u k d i k e m b a n g k a n .

P e r s o a l a n n y a a p a k a h k e b i j a k s a n a a n b u n g a y a n g b e r a s a l d a r i t e o r i N e o - K l a s i k t e r s e b u t d a p a t d i g u n a k a n s e c a r a e f e k t i f b a g i n e g a r a - n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g k h u s u s n y a I n d o n e s i a . U n t u k m e n j a w a b p e r t a n y a a n t e r s e b u t k i t a p e r l u m e n e l a a h a s u m s i - a s u m s i y a n g d i g u n a k a n o l e h t e o r i t e r s e b u t , s e r t a m e m p e r h a t i k a n k o n d i s i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g . T e o r i N e o - K l a s i k m e n g a n g g a p f a k t o r k e l e m b a g a a n s u a t u y a n g " g i v e n " , p a d a h a l f a k t o r k e l e m b a g a a n d i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g m e r u p a k a n f a k t o r p e n t i n g y a n g h a r u s d i p e r h a t i k a n d a l a m k e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i a g a r h a s i l n y a s e s u a i d e n g a n y a n g d i h a r a p k a n .

D e n g a n t i d a k m e n g a b a i k a n k e b e r h a s i l a n y a n g d i c a p a i d a r i k e b i j a k s a n a a n m o n e t e r d a n f i s k a l d e n g a n l a n d a s a n t i n g k a t b u n g a s e b a g a i p e r a l a t a n , n a m p a k n y a m e k a n i s m e b u n g a b e l u m s e e f e k t i f y a n g d i h a r a p k a n . A d a n y a " i m o b i l i t a s i " s u m b e r d a y a d a n f a k t o r - f a k t o r s o s i a l l a i n n y a s e b a g i a n b e s a r s e k t o r e k o n o m i t i d a k r e s p o n s i f ( i n e l a s t i s ) t e r h a d a p p e r u b a h a n t i n g k a t b u n g a . W a l a u p u n t i n g k a t b u n g a d i t u r u n k a n d a l a m p r o p o r s i y a n g b e r a r t i p e r t a m b a b a n i n v e s t a s i t i d a k s e p e r t i y a n g d i h a r a p k a n , l e b i h - l e b i h d i s e k t o r t r a d i s i o n a l . D i s e k t o r m o d e r n s u k u b u n g a y a n g r e n d a h c e n d e r u n g m e n d o r o n g p e n g g u n a a n teknologi padat modal y a n g m e n g h a s i l k a n p e r t u m b u h a n k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a j a u h t e r t i n g g a l d a r i l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n o u t p u t .

Daftar Kepustakaan

1 . D i u l i o , E u g e n e A , P h . D , Theory and Problems of Macroeconomic Theory, S c h a u m ' s O u t l i n e S e r i e s , M c . G r a w H i l l B o o k C o m p a n y , N e w Y o r k , 1 9 7 4 .

2. D e a n e , P h y l l e s , 7 7 i e Evaluation of Economic Ideas, C a m b r i d g e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s 1 9 7 8 .

3 . E i j o j o h a d i k u s u m o , S u m i t r o , P r o f . D r . Ekonomi Pembangunan, P T . P e m b a n g u n a n , J a k a r t a , 1 9 5 7 .

4 . H a t t a , M o h a m m a d , D r . Fasai-Fasai Fkonomi II, D i n a s P e n e r b i t B a l a i P u s t a k a , J a k a r t a , 1 9 5 8 .

5 . L a n d r e t h , H a r r y , History of Economic Theory, H o u g h t o n M i f f l i n C o m p a n y , B o s t o n , 1 9 7 6 .

6 . S c h u m p e t e r , J o s e p h A , History of Economic Analysis, O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s N e w Y o r k , 1963.

E K I , Vol. XXXn, No. 4, December 1984 491

7 . T o h i r , K a s l a n A , I r . Pengantar Ekonomi Tentang Uang-Kredit-Bank, P T G u n u n g A g u n g , J a k a r t a , 1 9 7 0 .

8 . W h i t t e s e y , e t a l . Money and Banking Analysis and Policy, T h e M a c M i l l a n C o m p a n y , N e w Y o r k , 1 9 6 5 .


B U L L E T I N O F I N D O N E S I A N E C O N O M I C S T U D I E S

This authoritative journal on the Indonesian economy is published three times a year in April, August and December. Each issue contains a survey of recent developments in the national economy, four or five articles, notes on special topics and a book review section. , . August 1984 Articles: Hill, "Survey of Recent Developments"; Myint, "inward and Outward-looking Countries Revisited: The Case of Indonesia"; Warr, "Exchange Rate Protection in Indonesia"; Thee Kian Wie, "Japanese Direct Investment in Indonesian Manufacturing"; Emerson, Garnaut and Clunies Ross, "Mining Taxation in Indonesia"; Gray, "The Jakarta Telephone Connection Charge and Financing Indonesian Telecommunications Development"; Reid, "The Pre-Colonial Economy of Indonesia". Subscription Rates: Surface mail Aust $20.00; Air mail; North and South America, U.K. and Europe Aust $30.00; Elsewhere Aust $25.00. Order from Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Department of Economics, Research School of Pacific Studies, The Australian National University, CPO Box 4, Canberra, A C T 2601, Australia.

\ M T T T I Z ' T T A O M l L l K i L A H

Makalah Staf LPEM

N o . l . Beberapa Aspek Pergudangan dan Masalabnya yang dihadapi di In-

oleb : Marsudi Djojodipuro

No. 2. Peranan Singapura bagi Perdagangan Luar Negeri Indonesia Altematif di Masa Mendatang: Mem—By pass atau Memanfaatkan ' Singapura.

oleb : Soemardi Reksopoetranto

No. 3. Prospek Pengembangan Pemasaran T E H di Dalam Negeri.

oleb : Levi T.Tarmidi.

Dapatkan di Toko-toko Buku atau pesan langsung ke E K I - L P E M — F E U I , Jalan Sa-lemba Raya No. 4, Jakarta Pusat.

494 E K I , VoL X X X n , No. 4, December 1984

^ ^ 3 S S 5 J | ! ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ Direksi, Staff dan Karyawan

WJI i H e n g u c a p k a n

^ ^ e l a m a t l ^ m i ^ a t a l Sc t T a f t u n J I a r u 1 9 8 5

, 1 . . . tropan

C V T O K O B U K U

TROPEN ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ - - > S I N C E 1 9 J » ^ < ^

TERSEDIA LENGKAP SEGALA JENIS BUKU-BUKU ILMU PENGETAHUAN IMPORT DAN LOKAL

TELP : (0211362-695; 363-543 JL. PASAR BARU 113 - JAKARTA 10710 Tromol Poi: 3604/JKT - JAKARTA 10002 INDONESIA

R A L A T E K I , V o l . X X X I I , N o . 3 , S e p t e m b e r 1 9 8 4 . H a l a m a n 3 6 8 C a t a t a n K a k i ( 7 ) : s e h a r u s n y a ; R u m u s K o e f i s i e n L o k a s i ( l o c a t i o n Q u o n t i e n t ) a d a l a h :

yij/.Vij LH = .'—t. n < I u

2 y i j / 2 2 Y i j j = l ' i = l j = T -

d i m a n a Y ^ a d a l a h n f l a i t a m b a h ( v a l u e - a d d e d ) s e k t o r i d i w i l a y a h j .

4% E K I , V o l . XXXn, N o . 4, D e c e m b e r 1984

Sejarah Pemikiran Ekonomi Teori Bunga

Documents