Seismic Hazard Model For Middle-East Region Laurentiu Danciu Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Switzerland & GEM Hazard Modeler Karin Sesetyan Mine Demircioglu KANDILLI OBSERVATORY and EARTHQUAKE RESEARCH INSTITUTE, Istanbul Turkey EMME Final Meeting September 30 th – October 2 nd Istanbul, Turkey
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Seismic Hazard Model for the Middle-East Region, Laurentiu Danciu, Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Switzerland & GEM Hazard Modeler; Karin Sesetyan & Mine Demircioglu, Kandilli
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Recurrence Rate Model:•Anderson & Luco (1983) Model 2:
•b-value assumed from the corresponding completeness super zones•Integration from Mmin = 5.00 to Faults Mmax
N2(M ) =d - b
b
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b
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ø÷eb-(Mmax-M -1éë
ùûe-((d /2)Mmax )
Activity Rates - Background
• Smoothed spatially with a variable Kernel
– r : epicentral distance
– di: Variable epicentral distance to next neighbor
nv
• Optimization for distance parameter with
retrospective tests
vsF (r,di ) c(di )(r2d
i
2 )1.5
Kernel Optimization: Retrospective Testing
Optimize kernel using a likelihood tests Split catalog in learning
and target period
Optimize on 5 year target period
Use best likelihood-value to generate model rates
Learning Period Target Period
1000 2002 2007
Activity Comparison
Fault Source Model
Combine seismicity from long term geological observations with observed seismicity
Fault Source Model
Source Parameterization
• Depth Distribution
• Focal Mechanisms
– Rake Angle values (Aki’s definition)
– Percentage weights
• Ruptures Orientation: Strike and Dip Angles
• Rupture Properties
– Upper and Lower Seismogenic Depth
Point Source [Single Rupture]
Simple Fault• Fault Top Trace
• Focal Mechanisms
– Rake Angle values (Aki’s definition)
• Ruptures Orientation: Strike and Dip Angles
• Rupture Properties
– Upper and Lower Seismogenic Depth
24th Sept 2013 Event in Pakistan
15Years Seismicity Mw >= 6.5
2013-09-24 Awaran Pakistan
2013-04-16 East of Khash Iran
2011-10-23 Eastern Turkey
2011-01-18 southwestern Pakistan
2010-12-20 southeastern Iran
2009-01-03 Hindu Kush region Afghanistan
2008-10-05 Kyrgyzstan
2005-12-12 Hindu Kush region Afghanistan
2005-10-08 Pakistan
2004-04-05 Hindu Kush region Afghanistan
2003-12-26 Southeastern Iran
2002-06-22 Western Iran
2002-03-03 Hindu Kush region Afghanistan
2002-02-03 western Turkey
2001-01-26 Gujarat India
2000-12-06 Turkmenistan
2000-11-25 Caspian Sea offshore Azerbaijan
1999-11-12 western Turkey
1999-11-08 Hindu Kush region Afghanistan
1999-08-17 Western Turkey
1999-03-04 Southern Iran
1998-05-30 Hindu Kush region Afghanistan
1998-03-14 Eastern Iran
Before 24th Sept 2013 Event in Pakistan
EMME Results, before the earthquake
Source Model Logic Tree
Spatially Smoothed Seismicity
• Based on the – Up-to-date seismicity
– Declustered catalogue
• Main Assumption:– Earthquake's self-similarity: earthquakes occur at near clusters of
previous smaller earthquakes.
– Derived equally spaced [10 x 10 km] cells
– 53300 non-overlapping cells
– the earthquake rates determined for cells are spatially smoothed using a one Gaussian smoothing kernel Frankel 1995]
– Kernel constant size equals to 25km
Smoothing Algorithms
Source Parameterization
• Depth Distribution (three values and the corresponding weights):
• Focal Mechanisms
– Rake Angle values (Aki’s definition)
– Percentage weights
• Ruptures Orientation
– Strike Angle (Azimuth)
– Dip Angle
• Rupture Properties
– Upper and Lower Seismogenic Depth
Point Source [Single Rupture]
Source Model Logic Tree
How do we weight them?
Summary•Building a regional seismic hazard model is a collective effort•Aim at generating the up-to-date , flexible and scalable database hat will permit continuous update, refinement, and analysis.
•Data will be parameterized and input into the database with a specific format.
Hazard
Software
“Black Box”
INPUT OUTPUT
“Easy Review” Box
Data
Interpretations
Assumptions
Summary•Transparent computational procedure, with all input files available as well as the software packages (Hazard Modeler Toolkit, OpenQuake)•Each dataset has certain degree of completeness, but there is room for improvements;•Specifically,
•The depth information of the events•Maximum magnitude definition•More parameterized faults•Velocities from GPS data
•Revision of all source models•What are the weakness points of each model?