Seeking solutions to air pollution, congestion , and ... Roundtable... · Mumbai Delhi Chennai Kolkata Ahmedabad Pune Bangalore Avg growth in bus fleet (2000 to 2007) Falling load

Seeking solutions to air pollution, congestion, and Climate: the role of transportation and mobility

Anumita Roychowdhury

Centre for Science and EnvironmentNew Delhi, November 18, 2009

Delhi got cleaner air: it avoided pollution; got health benefits

PM10 at ITO Traffic Intersection

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mic

rogr

amm

e pe

r cub

ic m

etre

PM10 trend projection pre Supreme Court directions

PM10 trend March 98- Dec 05, Post Supreme Court directions

0

60

120

180

Res. Areas Ind. Areas

mic

rogr

am/ c

ubic

met

re

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Pollution levels rising again:need big answers again

The challenge of convergence

Cities need to find solutions to air pollution, public health and climate impacts of motorisation……

More growth. More pollution. More travel. More oil guzzling and warming… A vicious cycle

Growth in passenger kilometers for different modes of travel

Other studies show by 2030-31 on an average, Indians will travel thrice as many kilometers as they traveled in 2000-01

Polluted and warming…….Strong co-relation between pollution and CO2 emissions and energy use in Indian cities

Source: CAI Asia, 2008

Look at Delhi

CSE study found that while air remains polluted, total heat trapping CO2 emissions load from vehicles is increasing

Cars and two-wheelers contribute as much as 60% of the total CO2 emission load from vehicles

Only in 5 years, (2002 and 2007), CO2 emissions load from cars has increased by 73% and from two wheelers by 61%.

Public transport buses contribute 20%. But buses carry several times more people and consume significantly less fuel and emit less per passenger

Why do we need to worry about motorisation?

Globally transport has remained the most difficult sector for climate mitigation

Transport sector emissions rising.

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.7 1.3 1.8 3.

8

8.0

17.2

27.5

45.6

61.4

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.9 1.6 2.6 4.

2 6.3 9.

4 11.3

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

1951, 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971, 1976, 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2004,

in m

illio

ns

Two wheelers, car, jeeps and taxis Other vehicles

30 years to reach the million mark in 1971.

Another 20 years to add two more million

In next 10 years (1981-91) another 14 million

Another 10 years (1991-2001) – jumped by 28 million

This decade just in four years (2001 to 2004) we have added 16 million

Ominous signs in India…….-- Explosive increase in vehicles

-- Energy crisis

Source: f MOSRTH motor vehicle registration data

020406080

100120140160180

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

mn t

ons

Consumption Production

Widening gap between crude oil consumption and production.

The great guzzle …..

-- Transport energy demand up at 1.2 times the GDP growth rate.

-- Transport uses nearly 40% of total oil. Oil use by vehicles in 2035to be six times that of the 2005 level.

-- Urban car travel use twice as energy on average as average urban bus travel; 3.7 times more than the typical light rail or tram; 6.6 times more than average electric urban electric train. -- Share of railways in freight down to 26%.

Cars threaten energy security and climateFuture CO2 increase from transport will be dominated by cars and trucks. (IEA)

G Tiwari, cw

Lee Schipper2008

Lee Schipper2008

We are buying more big cars, SUVs, diesel cars……

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

PM (g

m/k

m)

135140145150155160165170175

Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

CO

2 (g

m/k

m)

Big cars undermine fleet-wide energy efficiency

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

PM (g

m/k

m)

Getting caught in trade-off

Less CO2 from more efficient diesel Less CO2 from more efficient diesel carscars

But more health threatening PM But more health threatening PM from diesel carsfrom diesel cars

Cities are ParalyzedCities are ParalyzedThe Crawling TrafficThe Crawling Traffic

Source: Anon 2008, Study on traffic and transportation policies and Strategies in Urban Areas in India, MOUD, p63

The average journey speed in Delhi (16 km/hr), Mumbai (16 km/hr)The average journey speed in Delhi (16 km/hr), Mumbai (16 km/hr) and and KolkataKolkata (18 (18 km/hr): Abysmally poor compared to smaller citieskm/hr): Abysmally poor compared to smaller cities

Roads hitting dead end Roads hitting dead end Roads expansion cannot keep pace with rising number of vehicles

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1971

-72.

1980

-81.

1990

-91.

1993

-94.

1994

-95.

1995

-96.

1996

-97.

1997

-98.

1998

-99.

1999

-00.

2000

-01.

2001

-02.

2002

-03.

2003

-04.

2004

-05.

2005

-06.

Roa

d le

ngth

in k

ms

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Roa

d le

ngth

per

100

0 ve

hicl

es

Road length in kms

Road length per 1000 vehicles

Source: Economic Survey, Delhi Govt

Emerging evidence from round the world:

Delhi: Working population of Delhi, Noida, Ghaziabad, Gurgaon and Faridabad lose nearly 2.5 hours daily due to peak jams. (ASSOCHAM)

Mexico City: 20% of workers spend more than three hours traveling to and from work each day, and 10% spend more than five hours. (WBCSD)

Congestion cost: Economic cost of congestion 4.4% of GDP in Korea; 6% in Bangkok. (WBCSD) Road congestion costs in India can be as high as Rs 3000 to 4000 crore per year (CIRT)

Its grim. But we still have the chance……..we have a different message for the world….

We have the chance to grow differently….

Per Capita Emissions from Transport (IEA/SMP Transport Model 2005: Reference scenario)

G Tiwari/CW Draft 2009

What are our opportunities?…….The world is arriving where we are beginning. Small and low powered cars, two-wheelers are our advantage. But we must only get better….

Source: ICCT 2009

Our vehicles need to be more efficient. But we will have to do a lot more….

CO2 Emissions from Transport in Asian Regions 2000- 2030

New ADB study shows that even after accounting for nearly 25% improvement in fuel efficiency transport sector CO2 will increase

Only efficiency is not the answerLesson from other regions

In UK, cars became more efficient; emissions increased as people bought more; drove more

Better technology x number of vehicles= pollution, congestion, warmingThe numbers negate all impact

Understand our strength….nearly the largest user of public transportModal split for passenger transport in selected countries

Source: Compiled from Modal Split in Different Countries (2000), Institut für Verkehr Fachbereich 13 Bauingenieurwesen und Geodäsie, S Singh Delhi IIT

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

UK (1998)

France (1998)

Germany (1998)

United States (1997)

Japan (1997)

India* (2001)

Automobile Buses Rail Air

If we are not careful now we can lose our strengthIf we are not careful now we can lose our strength……

Source: Anon 2008, transport demand forecast study: study and development of an integrated cum multi modal public transport network for NCT of Delhi, RITES, MVA Asia Ltd, TERI, September

It is already happeningIt is already happening……..

The Annual Average Growth in % in STU The Annual Average Growth in % in STU Bus Fleet (2000 to 2007) decliningBus Fleet (2000 to 2007) declining

-0.8

-7.7

-1.7-3.5

-0.5

1.9

9.4

-10-8-6-4-202468

1012

Mum

bai

Del

hi

Che

nnai

Kol

kata

Ahm

edab

ad

Pun

e

Ban

galo

reAvg

gro

wth

in b

us fl

eet (

2000

to 2

007)

Falling load factor despite the growing demand

Source: Study on traffic and transportation policies and Strategies in Urban Areas in India, 2008 MOUD

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

DTC, Delhi BEST, Mumbai CSTC, Kolkata MTC, Chennai

1990-91. 2006-07.

Time to act……..

Transport infrastructure (roads, railway, airports) locks up enormous amount of carbonTransport infrastructure and per capita CO2 emissions in different countries

Source: WBCSD 2009

We have the chance to plan it differently……

JNNURM and other programmes can be leveraged to influence. Under JNNURM approved cost of transport projects (Roads, flyovers, etc) is nearly 2 billion dollars. Cities have planned additional investments……

Design roads and spaces sustainably …. Do not lock in carbon, energy and pollution…..

Our cities need upscaled transition

Avoid future emissions

Shift to sustainable modes of mobility

Our cities have begun to work with a variety of strategies……..

These are the early stages of infrastructure development……..Let us not repeat the mistakes

Take the busTake the bus…………Bus transport can make a difference…

BANGALORE: An increase in bus share from 62% to 80% saves equal to 21% of the fuel consumed in the base case. 23 per cent reduction in total vehicles; Frees-up road space equivalent to taking off nearly 418,210 cars.CO2 emissions can drop by 13 per cent. PM can drop by 29 per cent and NOx 6 per cent.

DHAKA: An increase in bus share from 24% to 60% saves fuel equal to 15 per cent of the fuel consumed in the base case. Frees up road space equivalent to removing 78,718 cars from the roads. CO2 emissions drops by 9 per cent. PM can drop by 13 per cent and NOx less than 1 per cent.

COLOMBO: A increase in bus share from 76% to 80% can save 104,720 tonnes of oil equivalent, or 3% of the fuel consumed in the baseline case. This means 5% reduction in total vehicles and freeing up of roadspace equivalent to removing 62,152 cars.

Cities are investing in buses

Delhi plans to add 5000 more buses; Other cities are buying buses

Cities want modern, convenient and even air conditioned buses

Industry has to build capacity to cater to this demand

Only increasing numbers will not help. Need reform in the bus sector …..

Revitalise the public bus agency Implement new model for private operations…

The Transition………Reallocate road space. More space to low carbon and clean modes. More space to urban majority

and urban poor…

Delhi Bus Corridor

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Bus commuter Pedestrain/Cyclist Car and two-wheelercommuters

Other commuters

% o

f res

pond

ents

Yes No No specific answer

We asked people on the corridor: Are you happy with dedicated lane system of BRT?

We heard the voice of urban majority…

88% of bus commuters; 85% of pedestrians and cyclists, 45% of cars ad two-wheelers said a resounding YES

We have seen the difference…..

Technical asessment of BRT at Chirag Delhi Junction during morning peak hours (Ambedkar Nagarto Moolchad) reveals:

-- Buses are 2% of all vehicles but carry 55% of people

-- Cars and two-wheelers 75% of the vehicles but carry 33% of the people

Bus Corridor has reduced the average travel time for the majority of the commuters on the corridor

-- Overall average travel time reduce by 19%-- For bus users travel time has improved by 35%-- For personal vehicles travel time has improved by 14%-- Journey speed for bus users: 19-21 km/hour-- Cars and two-wheelers: 14-18 km/hour

Pedestrian walkway in BRT corridor: Well designed, well maintained, and well surfaced. Disabled friendly. At grade crossings comfortable for old, disabled and visually impaired.

Our other advantage…Our cities are built differently. Dense, walkable, cyclable,….

Delhi Kolkata Bangalore Mumbai

-- High density, mixed land use, and narrow streets make our cities walkable-- In a typical city the core can just be 5 km across and easily walkable within a reasonable time. -- Studies show more than 40 to 50 per cent of the daily trips in many of our cities have distances less than 5 kilometers. -- These have enormous potential to convert to walking and non-motorised trips.

Source: Urban age

Difference is showing up in carbon emissionsCities with more and longer car based travel have more carbon emissions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

North Americans(mainly by cars &

planes)

Brazilians (cars/bus) Tanzanians (mainlyby foot/bus/cycle)

Indians (mainly byfoot/bus/cycle)

mile

s pe

r day

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

tons

of t

rans

port

rela

ted

CO

2 pe

r yea

r

Average travel per day

Transport related CO2emissions in tons a year

Source: WBCSD and MOUD data

Increase in walking reduces CO2 emissionsEven today one third of our daily trips are walk trips….

Source: CAI Asia, 2008

Important to understand the range of benefits of sustainable transportation

Other countries have begun to assess co-benefits of their transportation projects as a measure of success

Fuel savings and CO2 savings of a BRT corridor in Mexico City

ADB 2009

Reform agenda in Indian cities can reinvent mobility

Indian cities have begun to work towards policies for low carbon and clean transportation. This will have to be enabled and scaled up.

Opportunity to provide scaled up alternativesPublic transportInfrastructure for walking and cycling

Reduce demand for travel and vehicle usageLand-use planningRoad pricingTax rationalisationParking policy and charges

Leapfrog technologyEmissions standards Fuel economy standards

Fund the transition: Create transportation fund. Enforce tax measures to reallocate resources efficiently and raise revenue. (Currently, taxes on public transport is 2.6 times higher.)

Global action on low carbon transportHow can low carbon transport be enabled under the global climate regime?

Transportation groups are coming together to debate and act on this: Global Partnership on low carbon transport; Bridging the gap initiative; Bellagio principles …….

Get transportation recognised as a key sector for mitigation in AWG on long term cooperation

Financial mechanism has not worked for low carbon transport. Reform it. Only 9 out of 4474 CDM projects are transport related. Only 2 registered – Delhi metro – To reduce 41160 tonnes C/year. TransMileno BRT: to reduce 246563 TC/year.

Reasons: Difficult to prove additionality; Difficult to prove change because of the project; widely dispersed emissions; CDM money too small for the total cost of transport project……

Demand for reform – Eg, take programmatic approach to allow a number of similar projects for scale and impact

Enable national and city action

Account for co-benefits

Need low carbon transportation for adaptation as well……..

So where do we go from here?

How do we partner in this change?

How do we build knowledge, capacity, will to change, resources and mindset?

Lets debate………….