Seeing Over the Horizon

Seeing Over the Horizon

David Wasley, UCOP

Ken Klingenstein, Internet2 and CU

Ted Hanss, Internet2

SAC – Snowmass - 6 August 2001

See http://apps.internet2.edu/talks

Who Wants to be a CIO?

Fastest finger---put these in the order of priority:

• Campus-wide authentication and authorization

• Upgrading campus wiring and hardware

• Supporting faculty in the use of technology in classroom and laboratory

• Defining a funding model for campus IT

Applications

Ted Hanss

time

YNI

Technology Adoption

Early Majority

Innovators

Late Majority

LaggardsEarly Adopters

Source: Crossing the Chasm, Geoffrey Moore

Music instruction – University of Oklahoma

Office of the Future – UNC, Brown, Penn

Teleimmersion – University of Illinois

Haptic control of instruments – University of North Carolina

All Science is Computer Science

All Science is Comp Science

Infrastructure expectations

• Emerging Grid computing environment

– NEESGrid

• www.neesgrid.org

– GriPhyN

• www.griphyn.org

• Local computing clusters

• Storage, data transfer, etc.

Collaboration Services

Collaboration Services

Research, teaching, and learning implications

Growth in international collaborations

Mentoring relationships that span institutions

Infrastructure expectations

• Classrooms

• Meeting venues

Mobile Computing

Mobile Computing

802.11a will support streaming video at high quality

802.11 phones competing with 3G?

Deployment of always connected PDAs

Telemetry information being key to applications

Appliances

Appliances

What are appliances?

• Polycoms, sensors, web cams, …

Challenges

• How to manage?

Capture and Display

Capture and Display

Capture

• Getting to HDTV cheaply

• Spatial sound

• Voice and motion capture

Display

• Auto-stereoscopic

• Large plasma displays

Peer-to-Peer

Peer-to-Peer

Despite hype, still very much an emerging area

Most examples given are actually client/server applications

Challenges in management

• Gnutella searches consume orders of magnitude more bandwidth than actual data transfers.

.edu ASPs

.edu ASPs

Desire to drive commodity services into the infrastructure

• Seeking goals of cost savings, improved reliability, …

Upcoming reports may advocate a “services infrastructure” for the research and education community

Cool Technology I’ve Seen Recently

Cool Technology I’ve Seen …

NCast --- run a video-enabled seminar from a box

Digital Fountain --- “on demand multicasting”

Teleportec --- “heads up display” for videoconferencing

What Ever Happened To …

What Ever Happened To …

Adaptive applications?

• Requires end-to-end measurement

Metricom?

• Priced too high? Insufficient coverage?

More Info ...

[email protected]/talks/Ted Hanss Internet2 3025 Boardwalk Suite 100 Ann Arbor, MI 48108 +1.734.913.4256

www.internet2.edu

Future Networks –Bigger, Faster, Smarter

David L. Wasley

University of California

Yes, but

what ever happened to…

•LEOS?

•Hybrid fiber coax to the home?

•QOS?

•IPv6?

•ATM-over-IP

Wild speculations

Neutrino net - just point and shoot•Detectors the size of the Astrodome !!•Still slower than a modem

Cosmic net•Round trip times are a problem ;-(•Filling the pipe to Andromeda takes 1020 bits

3x108 meters/sec. - it’s the law!•Even a good lawyer can’t get around that one

Network layer trends

Bigger - everything on-line, all the time

Faster - terabits/sec on single fiber w/in 10 yrs

Smarter - because it has to be

Cheaper? •How much is it worth to you? To business?•Best bet is higher capacity for “constant” dollar•Financial models need to evolve to be rational

Bigger …

WAP in PDAs (e.g. nextgen cellphones)Miniature IPv6 stack-in-a-matchbox

•Monitor operation of equipment, e.g refrig.•Better energy management (e.g. at UCB)

Smart cars•Your “radio” is the wireless hub/router for the car

•Can receive and send traffic conditions, etc.•Can it schedule appointments on my calendar and at the garage when maintenance is required… ?-)

Faster

Fiber glut?•Some carriers installing 400-800 strand cables•One strand will carry > 1 terabit/sec.

Will IP be replaced by switched wavelengths?•Optical BGP controls pure optical switches

55 Mb/s for laptops, classrooms, homes•Cable/DSL box with integrated 802.11a (or better)

Fast mobile IP links•Commuter trains - > 100 mph

Smarter

RoamingQOS

•A few different ‘services’ might be enough•Admission management requires authentication

Network has to participate in stopping abuse•Reverse trace ability (how did the packet get here?) •Automatic blocking at the source

Authentication of all users at the network edge•Must balance privacy and managability

Other possible trends

Rational financial models for network services• Involve the user in cost/benefit decisions• Inter-provider reconciliation•Differential billing based on “distance”?•Always bill the transmitter(?)

–The last chance not to send the packet …Smartcards as access tokens for lots of things

•Like phone cards only smarter•Privacy ensured by third party anonymizers

Some campus issues

Issuing and managing digital credentialsManaging access to premium servicesCollecting and processing usage dataContinuous enhancement of infrastructure

•High speed wireless•Gigabit+ to the desktop•Highly robust infrastructure for critical applications

Outsource all this?

Previous speculations

“The world will only need 4 computers”

“The world will only need 80,000 PCs”

300 9600 128K 10M 100M is good enough

See also

Wasn't the Future Wonderful? : A View of Trends and Technology from the 1930's