Security Nexus Perspectives INCREMENTAL COMMUNITY-BASED EXIT STRATEGIES FOR INITIATING AND REMOVING COVID-19 LOCKDOWNS By Benjamin Ryan 1 , Damon Coppola 2 and Deon Canyon 3 * Many nations across the Asia-Pacific have implemented guidelines for social distancing and introduced lockdowns to control COVID-19. However, now many leaders face the question of how they will be able to relieve their communities of the protective constraints in place. Who decides when safe is ‘safe enough’, or what level of residual risk is acceptable? Getting this wrong is something no leader can afford. By applying a community-based incremental approach to the easing of lockdowns, tailored to demographic and social stratifications of risk, much of the guesswork can be eliminated. Social restrictions implemented during epidemics must strike a balance between cost and benefit. While disaster management is a discipline marked by uncertainty, and practitioners always anticipate data gaps and imperfect information, the COVID-19 pandemic has many unique planning challenges that affect decision makers’ confidence. Leaders find themselves faced with a double-edged sword wherein acting with too much force or speed may trigger undue financial hardship while waiting for better data risks hidden spread of disease and the potential failure of healthcare systems. Just weeks into the crisis now, government control efforts have already transformed life in profound ways. The costs are quickly adding up to trillions of dollars. Saving lives and protecting the public health system from excess stress has been the primary objective of every state and local government as they grapple with how to manage this crisis. Where they have diverged has been in determining the point at which collateral costs are deemed too excessive. 1. Baylor University – [email protected]2. Shoreline Risk LLC – [email protected]3. Professor, Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies – [email protected].
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Security Nexus Perspectives
INCREMENTAL COMMUNITY-BASED EXIT
STRATEGIES FOR INITIATING AND REMOVING
COVID-19 LOCKDOWNS By Benjamin Ryan1, Damon Coppola2 and Deon Canyon3 *
Many nations across the Asia-Pacific have implemented guidelines for social distancing and introduced
lockdowns to control COVID-19. However, now many leaders face the question of how they will be able to
relieve their communities of the protective constraints in place. Who decides when safe is ‘safe enough’, or
what level of residual risk is acceptable? Getting this wrong is something no leader can afford. By applying a
community-based incremental approach to the easing of lockdowns, tailored to demographic and social
stratifications of risk, much of the guesswork can be eliminated.
Social restrictions implemented during epidemics must strike a balance between cost and benefit. While
disaster management is a discipline marked by uncertainty, and practitioners always anticipate data gaps and
imperfect information, the COVID-19 pandemic has many unique planning challenges that affect decision
makers’ confidence. Leaders find themselves faced with a double-edged sword wherein acting with too much
force or speed may trigger undue financial hardship while waiting for better data risks hidden spread of disease
and the potential failure of healthcare systems.
Just weeks into the crisis now, government control efforts have already transformed life in profound ways. The
costs are quickly adding up to trillions of dollars. Saving lives and protecting the public health system from
excess stress has been the primary objective of every state and local government as they grapple with how to
manage this crisis. Where they have diverged has been in determining the point at which collateral costs are
Incremental Community-Based Exit Strategies for Initiating And Removing COVID-19 Lockdowns
4 Security Nexus: Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies
Table 1: Selective parts of the Disaster Resilience Scorecard for Public Health related to lockdown assessment
# Assess
A1.1/9.2 Governance mechanisms for disaster risk and emergency management include public health professionals A2.1 Disaster risk planning includes public health emergencies
A2.2 Consideration of public health impacts arising from other disasters
A3.1 Funding earmarked for addressing public health implications of disasters
A6.1 Sufficient, skilled health professionals to maintain public health around disasters
A6.2 Public health data shared with all stakeholders that need it
A7.1 Communities are prepared to maintain public health levels after a disaster
A7.1.2 Community can access and trust public health information
A8.1 Existence of health infrastructure besides hospitals (E.g., isolation, clinics, labs, supplies)
A8.2 Health facilities can manage a surge of patients
A9.1 Early warning systems exist for impending healthcare emergencies
A9.5 Existing stockpile of public health items, PPE, medications and equipment
It provides government leaders and crisis managers with a mechanism to collaboratively and systematically rank
and prioritize preparedness and readiness of the community’s public health functions, infrastructure, and
services. This includes pandemics, supply chain management, and vulnerable group management.
Rapid application of these elements of the scorecard would require a multidisciplinary approach that
incorporates social determinants and essential public health services, which are vital for population sampling,
risk-tailored interventions, and a whole of society approach to incremental easing of lockdowns (Figure 1). This
may provide a mechanism for collectively determining when it's ‘safe enough’ to loosen up elements of a
lockdown. Further thought is required to determine exactly what data triggers a decrease or increase in an
element of a lockdown.
Figure 1 – Process for developing Community-Based Exit Strategies for COVID-19 Lockdowns
Incremental Community-Based Exit Strategies for Initiating And Removing COVID-19 Lockdowns
5 Security Nexus: Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies
It is important to note that such measures have been tried and tested with high levels of success in outbreaks of
SARS, MERS and Swine Flu, as well as with COVID-19. The Republic of Korea, which is managing the disease using
an incremental lockdown approach has been able to stay open with little to no protective restrictions. Many
nations across the world are now delicately balancing the high cost of prevention through lockdowns with the
incalculable benefit of lives saved. There is evidence now on how to incrementally ease COVID-19 lockdowns
and there must now be action to plan, prepare, and collectively determine when it will be ‘safe enough’ to