Sector Trends - Goldilocks Premium Research

20 DEC, 2021

Sector Trends

goldilocksresearch.comPrivate & Confidential. Please see the important disclaimer at the end of this report.

Market Indices

Sensex 55822

Nifty 16614

52-Week Range 13131 - 18604

India VIX 18.96

IT

Real Estate

Capital Goods

Metals

Auto

Men Have Been Separated From The Boys

Opportunity Knocking Again The market has recently reached a point where every sector and segment has been impacted. The index has seen a 10% cut from the highs that has separated the “men from the boys”. This correction was overdue. With 16000/34000 as major supports on the Nifty/Bank Nifty, the risk-reward is turning in favour of longs again. Large-caps look better placed at this juncture as they could recover with the indices. Global volatility is here to stay and the news flow around the Covid variant is not helping. Hence, expect a period of time correction ahead. Price correction could be more or less done with. The IT, Real Estate, Cap Goods, Infrastructure and Banking sectors look like outperformers from here.

Nifty Bank – Critically Placed At Supports Bank Nifty has seen a large fall in the last many weeks. After nearly hitting 42000 in Oct ’21 the index tested 34000 yesterday. It seems that a down cycle is getting completely. The index is oversold andshould get into recovery mode. While some resistance is seen at 35300 (200-DMA), the next numbers to work with are 36500/37500. ICICI Bank & SBI are still the best bets.

NSE IT – More Upside Coming For the last few months the IT index has been in a range. Now we have evidence to believe that this was consolidation. Hence, the chances of an upward breakout and outperformance over the Nifty is quite high. Many opportunities are developing.

BSE Real Estate – Best In Class

After a spectacular rally in the middle of the year the index has gone through a “normal” correction. With support levels nearby we see the current fall as an opportunity for medium and long-term investors.

NSE Pharma – Nothing To Cheer About The Pharma index remains at a make or break point. The area around 13000-13200 is a huge support. Either it turns around from here and resumes the bull trend (preferred view) or if a breakdown were to happen then major incremental weakness could be seen.

NSE Metals – At Medium-term Supports The Metals index has been volatile in a range in the last few months. It is back near the major support of 5200. Till this is safe the chances of a rebound remain. Have to stay stock specific.

For Subscribers Only

Gautam Shah (CMT, CFTe, MSTA)[email protected]

+91 98300 35900

Outperforming Sectors

Underperforming Sectors


Sector Trends

Underperforming Stocks

Bandhan Bank (Sup : 230, 200)

Outperforming Stocks - Top Picks

ICICI Bank (Res : 740, 770, 800)

SBI (Res : 466, 480, 507)

Kotak Bank (Res : 1815, 1890, 2000)

November December 2018 February March April May June July August September October November December 2019 February March April May June July Augus t September October November December 2020 February March

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* CNX BANK INDEX (29,252.95, 29,273.65, 28,125.15, 28,653.70, -523.352)

August September November 2017 February April May June July August September November 2018 February April May June July August September November December2019 February April May June July August September November December2020 February March April May June July

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100Relative Strength Index (46.3985)

25 2July

9 16 23 30 6August

13 20 27 3 10 17September

24 1 8October

15 22 29 5 12November

19 26 3 10December

17 24 31 72019

14 21 28 4 11February

18 25 5 11March

18 25 1April

8 15 22 30May

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17 24 1July

8 15 22 29 5August

13 19 26 3 9 16September

23 30 7October

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18 25 2 9December

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* CNX BANK INDEX (31,775.55, 32,105.05, 31,770.50, 32,014.25, +348.801)

10December

17 24 312019

7 14 21 28 4February

11 18 25 5March

11 18 25 1April

8 15 22 30 6May

13 20 27 3June

10 17 24 1July

8 15 22 29 5August

13 19 26 3 9September

16 23 30 7October

14 22 29 4 11November

18 25 2 9December

16 23 30 62020

13 20 27 3February

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Relative Strength Compara tive(* CNX NIFTY) (2.55746, -0.02065)

22 29 4November

11 18 25 2December

9 16 23 302020


10 17 24 2March

9 16 23 30April

7 13 20 27 4May

11 18 26 1June

8 15 22 29July

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1.901.952.002.052.102.152.202.252.302.352.402.452.502.552.602.652.70Relative Strength Comparative(* CNX NIFTY) (2.08290, +0.00631)

29 4 11November

18 25 2 9December

16 23 30 62020

13 20 27 3February

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9 16 23 30 7April

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6 13 20 27 3August

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34000* CNX BANK INDEX (22,853.20, 22,854.05, 22,417.20, 22,662.05, -421.850)

28 5July

12 19 26 2 9August

16 23 30 6 13 20September

27 4 11October

18 27 1 8 15November

22 29 6 13 20December

27 3 102020


20 28 6 13March

20 27 3 9April

17 24 30 8May

15 22 29 5 12June

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10 17 24 31 7 14August


22 29 6 13October

20 27 3 10November

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34000* CNX BANK INDEX (22,436.85, 23,180.30, 22,410.05, 23,092.15, +792.551)

16 23 30 62020

13 20 27 3 10February

17 24 2March

9 16 23 30 7April

13 20 27 4May

11 18 26 1June

8 15 22 29July

6 13 20 27 3August


14 21 28 5October

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34000* CNX BANK INDEX (21,685.25, 22,293.75, 21,664.15, 22,246.00, +794.199)

20 27 4May

11 18 26 1June

8 15 22 29July

6 13 20 27 3August


14 21 28 5October


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30000Nifty Bank Index (28,685.70, 28,752.45, 28,431.85, 28,594.30, +128.602)

August September October November December 2020 February March April May June July August September October November December 2021

150001550016000165001700017500180001850019000195002000020500210002150022000225002300023500240002450025000255002600026500270002750028000285002900029500300003050031000315003200032500330003350034000


August September October November December 2020 February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 February

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34000Nifty Bank Index (32,082.90, 32,464.95, 31,863.95, 32,424.85, +613.100)

June July August September November 2019 February March April May June July August September November 2020 February April May June July August September November 2021 February March

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1.851.901.952.002.052.102.152.202.252.302.352.402.452.502.552.602.65

Relative Strength Comparative(.NSEI) (2.39235, -0.02759)

August September October November December 2020 February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 February March April

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Relative Strength Comparative(.NSEI) (2.32567, +0.00052)

2 9March

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13 20 27 4May

11 18 26 1 8June

15 22 29 6July

13 20 27 3 10August


21 28 5 12October

19 26 2 9November

17 23 1 7 14December

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14 21 28 5October


17 23 1 7December

14 21 28 42021


15 22 1March

8 15 22 30 5April

12 19 26 3May

10 17 24 31June

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Nifty Bank Index (35,163.75, 35,225.20, 34,859.90, 35,071.95, -202.152)

November December 2021 February March April May June July August2700027500280002850029000295003000030500310003150032000325003300033500340003450035000355003600036500370003750038000

Nifty Bank Index (36,000.75, 36,233.30, 35,937.10, 36,169.35, +232.301)

December 2021 February March April May June July August September October

285002900029500300003050031000315003200032500330003350034000345003500035500360003650037000375003800038500Nifty Bank Index (37,954.00, 38,112.60, 37,680.00, 37,830.30, +58.6016)

April May June July August September October November December 2021 February March April May June July August September October November

1500015500160001650017000175001800018500190001950020000205002100021500220002250023000235002400024500250002550026000265002700027500280002850029000295003000030500310003150032000325003300033500340003450035000355003600036500370003750038000385003900039500400004050041000415004200042500430004350044000Nifty Bank Index (41,057.75, 41,367.25, 40,867.60, 40,954.80, -237.598)

A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A M J J A S O N D 2022140001500016000170001800019000200002100022000230002400025000260002700028000290003000031000320003300034000350003600037000380003900040000410004200043000

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22 29 6 13December

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43000Nifty Bank Index (35,124.35, 35,231.10, 34,018.45, 34,439.85, -1,178.80)

NSE NIFTY BANK

Exhibit 1

Closer To Major Supports – Opportunity

Overview The Banking index has been in a downtrend for the last eight weeks. This is a long steak of underperformance. However, we think big supports are nearby that should help the index stabilise. 34000 is the huge support number where this bear trend could end leading to the resumption of the medium-term uptrend.

Risk-Reward Getting Better While the technical triggers remain negative, the risk-reward is getting better for a turnaround trade. Any further fall and even studies on the weekly charts would have cooled off. We wait to see positive divergence on the daily RSI.

Conclusion We see very few good set-ups in the Banking space. Many names are in structural downtrends. HDFC Bank remains an underperformer. We continue to see ICICI and SBI as the best bets.

Source: Goldilocks Premium Research


Sector Trends


United Breweries (Res : 1620, 1730)

ICICI Sec. (Res : 800, 885)

Indian Hotels (Res : 190, 205, 230)


Dhani (Sup : 133, 104)

2017 February March April May June July August September October November December 2018 February March April May June July August September November December 2019 February March April May June July August September October November December13800139001400014100142001430014400145001460014700148001490015000151001520015300154001550015600157001580015900160001610016200163001640016500166001670016800169001700017100172001730017400175001760017700178001790018000181001820018300184001850018600187001880018900190001910019200193001940019500196001970019800199002000020100202002030020400205002060020700208002090021000211002120021300214002150021600217002180021900220002210022200223002240022500* NIFTY MIDCAP 100 (16,826.40, 16,947.05, 16,822.15, 16,932.40, +160.900)

Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr

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23000* NIFTY MIDCAP 100 (17,459.90, 18,113.30, 17,455.95, 18,073.90, +687.551)

12November

19 26 3 10December

17 24 31 72019

14 21 28 4 11February

18 25 5March

11 18 25 1April

8 15 22 30 6May

13 20 27 3June

10 17 24 1July

8 15 22 29 5August

13 19 26 3 9 16September

23 30 7October

14 22 29 4 11November

18 25 2 9December

16 23 30 62020

13 20 27 3 10February

17 24 2March

9 16146501470014750148001485014900149501500015050151001515015200152501530015350154001545015500155501560015650157001575015800158501590015950160001605016100161501620016250163001635016400164501650016550166001665016700167501680016850169001695017000170501710017150172001725017300173501740017450175001755017600176501770017750178001785017900179501800018050181001815018200182501830018350184001845018500185501860018650187001875018800

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* NIFTY MIDCAP 100 (17,035.25, 17,083.85, 16,490.40, 16,746.45, -257.900)

Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Mar Apr May Jun Jul

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23000* NIFTY MIDCAP 100 (12,847.50, 13,598.35, 12,824.90, 13,502.00, +806.300)

18 25 5March

11 18 25 1April

8 15 22 30 6May

13 20 27 3 10June

17 24 1July

8 15 22 29 5August

13 19 26 3 9 16September

23 30 7October

14 22 29 4 11November

18 25 2 9December

16 23 30 62020

13 20 27 3 10February

17 24 2March

9 16 23 30 7April

13 20 27 4May

11 18 26 1June

8 15 22 29 6July

1010010200103001040010500106001070010800109001100011100112001130011400115001160011700118001190012000121001220012300124001250012600127001280012900130001310013200133001340013500136001370013800139001400014100142001430014400145001460014700148001490015000151001520015300154001550015600157001580015900160001610016200163001640016500166001670016800169001700017100172001730017400175001760017700178001790018000181001820018300184001850018600187001880018900190001910019200* NIFTY MIDCAP 100 (14,494.80, 14,592.55, 14,433.75, 14,565.85, +138.300)

Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

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22500* NIFTY MIDCAP 100 (15,321.60, 15,594.65, 15,312.20, 15,528.55, +286.250)

4 11November

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16 23 30 62020

13 20 27 3 10February

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6 13 20 27 3August


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19000* NIFTY MIDCAP 100 (17,220.00, 17,266.15, 17,083.60, 17,159.65, +58.2012)

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14 21 28 5October

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19000* NIFTY MIDCAP 100 (17,125.95, 17,186.05, 17,086.40, 17,125.00, +141.949)

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NIFTY Midcap 100 (18,491.25, 18,532.90, 18,397.75, 18,447.65, +94.2500)

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021

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22500NIFTY Midcap 100 (20,037.25, 20,472.60, 19,983.45, 20,439.95, +475.049)

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Mar Apr

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2.05Relative Strength Comparative(.NSEI) (1.58882, -0.01557)

October November December 2020 February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 February March April May

1000010500110001150012000125001300013500140001450015000155001600016500170001750018000185001900019500200002050021000215002200022500230002350024000245002500025500

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N D 2015 M A M J J A S O N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A M J J A700075008000850090009500

10000105001100011500120001250013000135001400014500150001550016000165001700017500180001850019000195002000020500210002150022000225002300023500240002450025000255002600026500

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2.05Relative Strength Comparative(.NSEI) (1.66270, +0.00280)

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13 20 27 4October


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8 15 22 30 5April

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20 27 4October


15 22 29 6December

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34000NIFTY Midcap 100 (29,530.30, 29,570.25, 28,396.10, 28,838.20, -1,101.10)

NSE MID-CAP 100 INDEX

Exhibit 2

Stays In A Corrective Phase

Overview All pullback rallies have got sold into quickly. While the index has been in a range, the bias has been negative all along. The index is back below the moving averages. The major support of 28400 has been tested yesterday. This could be a temporary bottom atleast. Now ranged action within 28400-30500 could be seen.

Bearish Patterns We have seen a series of bearish patterns on the weekly charts. It just goes to show that the bears are getting stronger. The weekly RSI continues to have a breakdown set-up. The ratio chart vs the Nifty has hit a major barrier. No concrete positives yet.

Conclusion The Mid-cap index remains in a spot of bother. Volatility is likely to persist. However, there are some structural bullish stories still in play. We like United Breweries, ICICI Sec. and Indian Hotels.



Sector Trends


Gland Pharma (Res : 3760, 4000, 4300)

Sun Pharma (Res : 785, 820, 850)

Alkem Pharma (Res : 3500, 3650, 3890)


Biocon (Sup : 342, 314)

November 2017 February March April May June July August September October November 2018 February March April May June July August September November December2019 February March April May June July August September November December2020 February March April May

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16900* S&P BSE HEALTHCARE (13,606.57, 14,172.87, 13,341.18, 14,080.49, +600.391)

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb

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13 20 27 3 10 17September

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15 22 29 5 12 19November

26 3 10 17December

24 31 72019

14 21 28 4 11February

18 25 5 11March

18 25 1 8April

15 30May

13 20 27 3 10June

17 24 1July

8 15 22 29 5 13August


23 30 7 14October

22 29 4 11 18November

25 2 9 16December

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11200* CNX PHARMA (10,022.90, 10,098.85, 9,982.45, 10,002.15, +26.8506)

May June July August September November December 2019 February March April May June July August September November December 2020 February March April May June July August

59006000610062006300640065006600670068006900700071007200730074007500760077007800790080008100820083008400850086008700880089009000910092009300940095009600970098009900

100001010010200103001040010500106001070010800109001100011100

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec 2019 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

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* CNX PHARMA (11,649.75, 11,674.55, 11,485.15, 11,500.00, -72.2500)

S O N D 2015 M A M J J A S O N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D

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14500* CNX PHARMA (11,724.75, 12,015.70, 11,528.25, 11,822.90, +227.000)

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec 2019 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec 2020 Mar Apr May Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

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Nifty Pharma Index (11,795.25, 11,804.95, 11,754.15, 11,772.45, +46.0000)

J A S O N D 2015 M A M J J A S O N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M

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14500Nifty Pharma Index (12,752.00, 12,869.70, 11,949.60, 12,753.25, -9.09961)

2014 M A M J J A S O N D 2015 M A M J J A S O N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A

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23 1 7 14December

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M A M J J A S O N D 2015 M A M J J A S O N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A M

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S O N D 2015 M A M J J A S O N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A M J J

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14500Nifty Pharma Index (13,233.20, 13,633.40, 12,999.80, 13,319.75, +85.5000)

S O N D 2015 M A M J J A S O N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A M J J A

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S O N D 2015 M A M J J A S O N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A M J J5500

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Nifty Pharma Index (14,260.45, 14,390.50, 14,243.85, 14,360.20, +90.9004)

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NSE PHARMA INDEX

Exhibit 3

Make Or Break

Overview The index looks very critically placed at this juncture. It continues to stay around the important 13200 support level. Either we see a large turnaround from here or if this breaks a much larger drop towards 12500 and lower could be seen. Our preferred view is on the upside. The coming week should clear it out.

Positive Triggers Yet To Develop Despite repeated attempts the index has been unable to get past the averages. This is not a good sign. Also the candlestick patterns are still weak. The weekly RSI is still in breakdown mode while the DM/ADX is in sell mode. A bearish crossover has also been seen.

Conclusion If the Pharma index does rebound from above mentioned supports, expect some stocks to do exceeding well. While Gland Pharma remains the top pick, it is followed by Sun and Alkem Pharma.



Sector Trends


APL Apollo (Res : 1140, 1200)

JSW Steel (Res : 694, 770)


Coal India (Sup : 136, 125)

NMDC (Sup : 125, 112)

Oct Nov Dec 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb

4200430044004500460047004800490050005100520053005400550056005700580059006000610062006300640065006600670068006900700071007200730074007500760077007800790080008100820083008400850086008700880089009000910092009300940095009600970098009900

10000101001020010300104001050010600107001080010900110001110011200113001140011500116001170011800119001200012100122001230012400125001260012700

* CNX AUTO (7,853.75, 8,090.75, 7,773.60, 8,069.70, +263.100)

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr

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28500* S&P BSE AUTO INDEX (15,735.25, 15,895.16, 15,283.88, 15,643.93, +75.4297)

2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Mar Apr May Jun Jul

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0.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.700.750.800.850.900.95Relative Strength Comparative(* CNX NIFTY) (0.18648, -0.00642)

4 11November

18 25 2 9December

16 23 30 62020

13 20 27 3 10February

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3050* CNX METAL (2,541.85, 2,542.45, 2,493.40, 2,507.50, -18.6001)

11November

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17 24 2March

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1400145015001550160016501700175018001850190019502000205021002150220022502300235024002450250025502600265027002750280028502900295030003050


Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Feb

125013001350140014501500155016001650170017501800185019001950200020502100215022002250230023502400245025002550260026502700275028002850290029503000305031003150320032503300335034003450350035503600365037003750380038503900395040004050410041504200425043004350440044504500Nifty Metal Index (2,708.15, 2,712.00, 2,679.70, 2,694.15, +13.1499)

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Feb Mar

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Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Feb Mar Apr May

125013001350140014501500155016001650170017501800185019001950200020502100215022002250230023502400245025002550260026502700275028002850290029503000305031003150320032503300335034003450350035503600365037003750380038503900395040004050410041504200425043004350440044504500

0.0%

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Nifty Metal Index (3,508.25, 3,644.80, 3,463.15, 3,552.10, +65.8501)

2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Feb Mar Apr


J A S O N D 2015 M A M J J A S O N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A M J J1200130014001500160017001800190020002100220023002400250026002700280029003000310032003300340035003600370038003900400041004200430044004500460047004800

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6000Nifty Metal Index (5,621.95, 5,627.30, 5,449.70, 5,498.20, -117.850)

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15 22 1 8March

15 22 30 5April

12 19 26 3May

10 17 24 31 7June

14 21 28 5July

12 19 26 2 9August


20 27 4 11October

18 25 1 8November

15 22 29 6 13December

20 27 32022

2100220023002400250026002700280029003000310032003300340035003600370038003900400041004200430044004500460047004800490050005100520053005400550056005700580059006000610062006300640065006600

Nifty Metal Index (5,400.10, 5,409.20, 5,195.35, 5,269.60, -207.200)

NSE METALS INDEX

Exhibit 4

Just Passing Time

Overview Despite repeated attempts the index has just not been able to sustain at higher levels. All recoveries have found selling pressure. This is a large, long consolidation phase that could continue. 5200 and 4950 are the major supports. 5800-5900 looks like the ceiling. More time is likely to pass in this range. Stay away.

Bears Remains In Control

The index is back below the averages on the daily charts. The candlestick patterns on the daily/weekly charts are still weak. 5460 is the immediate support. A close below the same leads to 5200 again. The ratio chart vs the Nifty continues to be sideways.

Conclusion With the index staying volatile in a range we do not see too many outperformers or opportunities. APL Apollo is the best bet having broken out recently followed by JSW that has been super steady.



Sector Trends


Brigade (Res : 466, 510)

Oberoi Realty (Res : 833, 870, 950)

DLF (Res : 385, 420, 450)


Hemisphere Prop. (Sup : 122, 103)

December 2019 February March April May June July August September October November December 2020 February March April May June July August September October November December 2021

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2017 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Feb Mar Apr

270280290300310320330340350360370380390400410420430440450460470480490500510520530540550560570580590600610620630640650660670680690700710720730740750760

HDFC Life Insurance Company Ord Shs (703.000, 709.300, 689.000, 698.550, -6.29999)

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Mar Apr May

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Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Feb Mar Apr May Jun

17501800185019001950200020502100215022002250230023502400245025002550260026502700275028002850290029503000305031003150320032503300335034003450350035503600365037003750380038503900395040004050410041504200425043004350440044504500455046004650Nifty PSE Index (3,310.70, 3,325.50, 3,130.70, 3,155.25, -141.100)

Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Feb Mar Apr May

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N D 2015 M A M J J A S O N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A M J J A850090009500

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N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A M J J A S

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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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Nifty Realty Index (405.450, 407.800, 376.450, 394.550, -8.90002)

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N D 2014 M A M J J A S O N D 2015 M A M J J A S O N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 A M J J A S O N D 2018 A M J J A S O N D 2019 A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A M J J A S O N D 2022

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NSE REALTY INDEX

Exhibit 5

A Normal Counter Trend Move

Overview Post the spectacular run up early this year the index hit resistance and got into a consolidation phase that has continued for over a month now. With the fall of the last few days the index has tested the support of 455. The worst-case support of 430 is also not far away. The risk-reward for longs is getting better again.

Retracing The Big Rally - Opportunity The price action is back below the moving averages. The weekly candlestick pattern formed is bearish. The weekly RSI has seen a minor breakdown as well. Daily studies are yet to turn oversold. The only big positive is the excellent looking ratio chart vs the Nifty.

Conclusion Most of the Real Estate names have excellent medium-term charts. We see a turnaround with new highs coming for many of them. Brigade, Oberoi Realty and DLF are best bets.



Sector Trends


Wipro (Res : 700, 740, 800)

Infosys (Res : 1890, 2000, 2220)

HCL Tech. (Res : 1214, 1334, 1400)


OFSS (Sup : 3900, 3810, 3605)

M J J A S O N D 2012 A M J J A S O N D 2013 A M J J A S O N D 2014 A M J J A S O N D 2015 A M J J A S O N D 2016 A M J J A S O N D 2017 A M J J A S O N D 2018 A M J J A S O N D 2019 A M J J A S O N D 2020 A M J J A S O N D 2021

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1.85Relative Strength Comparative(.NSEI) (1.77690, +0.08680)

22 29 4 11 18November

25 2 9 16December

23 30 62020

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16 23 30 7April

20 27 4May

11 18 26 1 8June

15 22 29 6July

13 20 27 3 10August


21 28 5 12October


23 1 7 14December

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21 28 5 12October

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17 23 1 7December

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15 22 29April

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28500Nifty IT Index (26,365.90, 26,395.95, 25,012.50, 25,373.35, -810.150)

D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A M J J8000

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29000Nifty IT Index (25,650.45, 25,770.50, 25,499.45, 25,703.55, +115.352)

A S O N D 2012 A M J J A S O N D 2013 A M J J A S O N D 2014 A M J J A S O N D 2015 A M J J A S O N D 2016 A M J J A S O N D 2017 A M J J A S O N D 2018 A M J J A S O N D 2019 A M J J A S O N D 2020 A M J J A S O N D 2021 A M J J A S

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Relative Strength Comparative(.NSEI) (1.82680, -0.01823)

O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A M J J A S O

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Nifty IT Index (31,523.50, 32,821.90, 31,324.75, 32,678.80, +1,375.50)

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18 25 1 8November

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April12 19 26 3

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June7 14 21 28 5

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August16 23 30 6 13

September20 27 4

October11 18 25 1 8

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39000Nifty IT Index (36,391.10, 36,646.25, 36,302.95, 36,465.30, +133.000)

9November


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15 22 1 8March

15 22 30April

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10 17 24 31 7June

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12 19 26 2 9August


20 27 4 11October


22 29 6 13December

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39000Nifty IT Index (36,411.85, 36,598.35, 35,559.30, 35,916.45, -731.449)

NSE IT INDEX

Exhibit 6

Some Positive Signals

Overview The IT index has stayed stuck in a sideways range for three full months. All dips were bought into and rallies were sold into. The trading action of the last one week has been positive. We have seen relative outperformance. If the index gets past 37500 on a closing basis the bull trend could resume. Stay prepared.

Developing Well The index is back above the averages and stayed above it the whole of last week, which is commendable. The relative strength line vs the Nifty is at a new high. The RSI on the weekly looks better placed than many other sectors. Good place to hide.

Conclusion With the IT index likely to end its consolidation, some stocks are likely to perk up well. Wipro has been steady all along and is ready for the next phase up followed by Infosys & HCL Tech.



Sector Trends


L&T (Res : 1900, 2000, 2200)

Siemens (Res : 2570, 2770)

Finolex Cables (Res : 550, 605)


Graphite India (Sup : 410, 360)

September October November December 2018 February March April May June July August September October November December 2019 February March April May June July August September October November December

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Relative Strength Comparative(* CNX NIFTY) (1.40703, +0.00735)

Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr

1200125013001350140014501500155016001650170017501800185019001950200020502100215022002250230023502400245025002550260026502700275028002850290029503000305031003150320032503300335034003450350035503600365037003750380038503900395040004050410041504200425043004350440044504500* CNX METAL (2,851.85, 2,927.95, 2,846.15, 2,864.65, +23.8999)

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar

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17000* S&P BSE METAL INDEX (8,539.47, 8,549.80, 8,262.95, 8,474.96, -54.6299)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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34500* CNX FMCG (29,187.50, 29,215.85, 28,349.00, 28,709.45, -436.150)

15 22 29 5August

13 19 26 3 9 16September

23 30 7October

14 22 29 4 11November

18 25 2 9December

16 23 30 62020

13 20 27 3 10February

17 24 2 9March

16 23 30 7April

13 20 27 4May

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8 15 22 29 6July

13 20 27 3 10August

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33500* CNX FMCG (31,009.95, 31,138.55, 30,653.40, 31,018.85, -83.0508)

Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021

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A S O N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A1500015500160001650017000175001800018500190001950020000205002100021500220002250023000235002400024500250002550026000265002700027500280002850029000295003000030500310003150032000325003300033500340003450035000355003600036500

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35500Nifty FMCG Index (33,396.80, 33,584.55, 33,115.10, 33,336.80, -37.0977)

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36000Nifty FMCG Index (33,172.60, 33,595.60, 32,720.00, 33,222.60, +154.102)

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Feb Mar Apr May

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36500Nifty FMCG Index (33,938.10, 34,002.85, 33,631.70, 33,726.10, -316.949)

August September November 2019 February April May June July August September November 2020 February April May June July August September November 2021 February April May

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36500Nifty FMCG Index (35,050.60, 35,097.55, 34,755.20, 34,807.40, +25.8984)

O N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A M J J A S

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Nifty FMCG Index (36,379.00, 36,503.95, 36,083.20, 36,184.40, -32.3008)

A M J A S O N 2018 A M J A S O D 2019 A M J J A S O N D 2020 A M J J A S O N D 2021 A M J J A S O

2200023000240002500026000270002800029000300003100032000330003400035000360003700038000Nifty FMCG Index (36,816.65, 37,016.95, 36,088.25, 36,842.05, +172.250)

December 2021 February March April May June July August September October310003200033000340003500036000370003800039000400004100042000

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1.70Relative Strength Comparative(.NSEI) (1.60107, -0.00671)

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30500S&P BSE Capital Goods Index (27,773.92, 27,793.35, 26,837.89, 27,208.42, -849.029)

BSE CAPITAL GOODS

Exhibit 7

Hitting Resistances

Overview The Capital Goods index has been one of the best performers of the last many months. Probably the only sector to stay strongly in an uptrend. However now things look a bit top heavy. It seems even this index could now come under selling pressure. 26700 is the major support that has been tested yesterday.

Some Bearish Divergences On the weekly charts we have seen some bearish divergences develop. This does not have good eye appeal. The ratio chart vs the Nifty is at a major medium-term resistance. It just seems that outperformance is likely to end for the time being.

Conclusion Post the ongoing correction, Capital Goods stocks are likely to rebound well. The longer term uptrend is intact. We see L&T as the best bet followed by Siemens and Finolex Cables.



Sector Trends


Tata Motors (Res : 468, 500, 535)

M&M (Res : 850, 892, 960)


Hero Moto (Sup : 2260, 2120)

D 2006 A M J J A S O N D 2007 A M J J A S O N D 2008 A M J J A S O N D 2009 A M J J A S O N D 2010 A M J J A S O N D 2011 A M J J A S O N D 2012 A M J J A S O N D 2013 A M J J A S O N D 2014 A M J J A S O N D 2015 A M J J A S O N D 2016 A M J J A S O N D 2017 A M J J A S O N D 2018 A M J J A S O N D 2019 A M J J A S O N D 2020

1000

1500

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2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

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9500

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0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

Relative Strength Compara tive(* CNX NIFTY) (0.46764, -0.01024)

September November December 2017 February March April May June July August September November December2018 February March April May June July August September November 2019 February March April May June July August September November 2020 February March

104001050010600107001080010900110001110011200113001140011500116001170011800119001200012100122001230012400125001260012700128001290013000131001320013300134001350013600137001380013900140001410014200143001440014500146001470014800149001500015100152001530015400155001560015700158001590016000161001620016300164001650016600167001680016900170001710017200

* S&P BSE OIL & GAS INDEX (12,789.84, 12,814.62, 12,487.70 , 12,652.67, -94.6504)

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr

105

110115

120

125

130135

140145

150155

160

165

170175

180185

190195

200

205

210215

220225

230

235240

245

250

255260

265270

275280

285290

295300

305310

315320

325330

335340

345350

355

360

365370

375

380385

390395

* CNX REALTY (312.000, 325.050, 311.850, 324.150, +13.5000)

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Mar Apr May Jun Jul

5000

10000

15000

20000

x100

600

700800900

10001100

1200

13001400

150016001700

18001900200021002200

2300240025002600

270028002900

30003100

320033003400

350036003700

38003900

4000

41004200

430044004500

46004700480049005000

510052005300

5400550056005700

5800ATUL LTD (4,585.25, 5,050.00, 4,584.00, 4,852.45, +252.850)

26 3 9September

16 23 30 7October

14 22 29 4November


16 23 302020


10 17 24 2March

9 16 23 30 7April

13 20 27 4May

11 18 26 1June

8 15 22 29July

6

50000

x1000

315320325330335340345350355360365370375380385390395400405410415420425430435440445450455460465470475480485490495500505510515520525530535540545550555560565570575580585590595600605610615620625630635640645650655660665670

HDFC STANDARD LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY (517.950, 524.000, 514.350, 521.100, +5.14996)

13 20 27 3 10June

17 24 1July

8 15 22 29 5 13August


23 30 7 14October

22 29 4 11 18November

25 2 9 16December

23 30 62020

13 20 27 3 10February

17 24 2 9March

16 23 30 7April

13 20 27 4May

11 18 26 1 8June

15 22 29 6July

13 20 27 3 10August

410042004300440045004600470048004900500051005200530054005500560057005800590060006100620063006400650066006700680069007000710072007300740075007600770078007900800081008200830084008500860087008800

* CNX AUTO (7,228.40, 7,271.00, 7,178.85, 7,218.65, -82.3999)

7October

14 22 29 4 11November

18 25 2 9December

16 23 30 62020

13 20 27 3 10February

17 24 2March

9 16 23 30 7April

13 20 27 4May

11 18 26 1June

8 15 22 29 6July

13 20 27 3 10August

17 24 31 7September

410042004300440045004600470048004900500051005200530054005500560057005800590060006100620063006400650066006700680069007000710072007300740075007600770078007900800081008200830084008500860087008800* CNX AUTO (7,997.00, 8,034.40, 7,933.20, 7,983.60, +35.2002)

April May June July August September October November December 2020 February March April May June July August Septem ber October

410042004300440045004600470048004900500051005200530054005500560057005800590060006100620063006400650066006700680069007000710072007300740075007600770078007900800081008200830084008500860087008800890090009100920093009400

* CNX AUTO (7,985.35, 8,089.05, 7,953.90, 7,966.10, +58.0000)

April May June July August September October November December 2020 February March April May June July August September October November

2900300031003200

330034003500360037003800

390040004100420043004400

450046004700480049005000510052005300540055005600570058005900600061006200

630064006500660067006800

690070007100NIFTY Smallcap 100 (6,093.35, 6,107.20, 6,081.95, 6,089.10, +45.6001)

2018 February April May June July August September November 2019 February April May June July August September November 2020 February April May June July August September November 2021

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

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11000

11500

12000

12500

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Feb

4000

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5500

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12000

12500

Nifty Auto Index (10,033.35, 10,166.20, 10,008.75, 10,136.80, +175.700)

Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Feb Mar

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Nifty Auto Index (10,785.05, 10,786.45, 10,450.55, 10,540.35, -286.650)

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Feb Mar Apr May Jun

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Nifty Auto Index (10,446.75, 10,450.20, 10,039.55, 10,143.95, -239.950)

August September October November December 2020 February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 February March April May

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A S O N D 2015 M A M J J A S O N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A M J J A

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December 2020 February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 February March April May June July

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11500Nifty Auto Index (10,444.00, 10,456.05, 10,386.05, 10,420.30, -35.7002)

J A S O N D 2018 A M J J A S O N D 2019 A M J J A S O N D 2020 A M J J A S O N D 2021 A M J J A S O400045005000550060006500700075008000850090009500

100001050011000115001200012500Nifty Auto Index (10,274.75, 10,348.80, 10,000.95, 10,178.30, -71.2002)

S O N D 2019 M A M J J A S O N D 2020 M A M J J A S O N D 2021 M A M J J A S O N D4000

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11500Nifty Auto Index (10,286.95, 10,473.90, 10,021.35, 10,429.05, +77.5996)

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

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Nifty Auto Index (11,269.70, 11,408.30, 11,258.85, 11,349.60, +121.399)

June July August September October November December 2021 February March April May June July August September October November

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March April May June July August September October November December 2021 February March April May June July August September October November December 2022

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Nifty Auto Index (10,536.10, 10,543.50, 10,197.20, 10,405.30, -273.351)

NSE AUTO INDEX

Exhibit 8

More Consolidation/Correction Likely

Overview The sector has had a difficult last 4 weeks. A lot of stocks have come under pressure. The pullback in the recent past quickly ended at the averages. The set-up remains negative calling for more correction. A break below 10200 leads to 9800 levels. We do not see any relative strength. Let the storm pass.

In Retracement Mode It must be understood that the index is retracing the entire run-up from 4500-12000 levels. This is unlikely to end in a hurry. The weekly pattern set-up is still negative. The averages are about to be broken. The weekly RSI has seen massive divergence.

Conclusion Most stocks in the sector have seen set-ups getting completely disrupted. We don’t see too many opportunities. Tata Motors and M&M are the best bets for medium-term investors.



Sector Trends

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Sector Trends

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