Sector Dependencies in the development of a Safe and Secure Environment Steven B Hall, NPS Research Professor May 12th : Safe and Secure Environment IPR.

 Sector Dependencies in the development of a

Safe and Secure Environment

Steven B Hall, NPS Research Professor

May 12th : Safe and Secure Environment IPR

Overarching Objective

This 90 minute session is one of a series of working sessions, held within the various Sectors, to further our understanding of how the developing Sectors influences each other.  

We are looking, in this session, to broaden our understanding of how the developing Security Sector influences other Sector developments and …

How the state of or developments in other Sectors influence  developments strategy within this sector.  

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“Everything should be as simple as it can be, but not simpler.”Roger Sessions paraphrasing Albert Einstein

Some Framing Thoughts

• The development (and maintenance) of a safe and secure environment is a necessary condition for the emergence of a ’nation’ and its governing ’state’ yet it is neither sufficient to produce that outcome nor independent of the developments of the other necessary conditions for the emergence of a nation/state.

• Complicating this already complex set of development interactions and dependencies is the fact that often the operational choices available to the 38 each involve a tradeoff between supporting the development of one sector’s objective while hindering the development of another sector’s objective.  

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Sustainable Economy

Safe and Secure

Environment

Social Well Being

Risk (-)

Security Funding (+)

Goods/Services (+)

Labor (+)

Socia

l Ide

ntity

(+)

Colle

ctive

Val

ue (+

)

The SSE System Problem

We can create a safe and secure environment … if we want to do so – Bring in enough force; Declare Marshall law; Establish curfews; …– We can stop people behaving in ways that threaten safety and security

The problem is, if you’re not careful, you’ll also stop behavior you do want

The question we want to try to answer in this session is …

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How do we discourage the undesirable behavior

while encouraging the desirable behavior?

And the Inherent Tradeoffs(from the Guiding Principles)

• Safe and Secure Environment (SSE)– Prioritizing short-term stability vs. confronting impunity– Using local security forces to enhance legitimacy vs. using international security to ensure effectiveness– Applying force vs. maintaining mission legitimacy– Public order functions performed by the military vs. the police– Short-term security imperatives vs. investments in broader security reform

• Sustainable Economy (SE)– Economic efficiency vs. political stability– Sophistication vs. simplicity in the income tax system– Creating donor trust funds vs. strengthening the host nation budget process– Macroeconomic reforms vs. political stability– Employment opportunities for ex-combatants vs. women and minorities– Public vs. private sector in public utility services– Meeting urgent needs for jobs vs. focusing on sustainable employment

• Social Well Being (SWB)– Delivering assistance through host nation vs. international capacity– Meeting immediate survival needs vs. instability– Responsibility to protect vs. safety of relief workers– Rapid return of displaced populations vs. instability– Giving property to their original owners vs. existing occupants– Pursuing reconciliation vs. stability– Restorative vs. retributive justice

• Stable Governance (SG)– Rapid and effective delivery of essential services vs. legitimacy for nascent government institutions– Hiring host nation actors to assist international organizations vs. staffing domestic institutions– Rapid service delivery and resource procurement vs. empowerment of spoilers or criminal elements– Responsible fiscal management vs. the need to provide immediate services– Early elections vs. maturation of politics and processes– Political appointments vs. meritocracy

• Rule of Law (RoL)– Culture vs. human rights– Security vs. human rights– Peace vs. justice– Quick fixes vs. a strategic approach

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Prototypical Questions… we hope to answer

• What developments, that 38Gs working in other Sectors would want to make, would make it harder for a 38G Security to accomplish his/her mission?  

• Under what conditions are these detrimental impacts likely to be most impactful?

• What developments, that 38Gs working in other Sectors would want to make, would make it easier for a a 38G Security to accomplish his/her mission?

• Under what conditions are these supportive impacts likely to be most impactful?

• What kinds of pragmatically available operations generate Sector tradeoffs … i.e., where the effect of the operation is to facilitate one objective while hindering another?

• In each case; when are these effects strongest and when are they weakest?

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Hoped for Outcomes

A list of the positive and negative influences within SSE and between Security and Non-Security Sector developments• Associated conditions under which these identified interactions

are strongest and weakest.• A overall weighting/ranking on the relative importance of these

influence.   

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Let’s Startfor this exercise let’s assume…

Our objective is to exit having made resilient improvements to …

1. The social welfare of the humans of the region

2. The state and supporting nation of the region

3. The global community, including the ‘host’ and ‘donor’ nations

(While acknowledging that sometimes tradeoffs will be necessary in getting there

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And let’s assume …

We have the following six SSE (protection) objectives– Humans (in the target region)

• To be free to pursue to their own sustenance [HS]• To be free to pursue participatory social relations (belonging) [HP]

– Host State• To be free to pursue its own sustenance [SS]• To be free to pursue participatory (multi-state) relations [HP]

– Multi-State (minimally including host and donor states)• To be free to pursue its own sustenance [MS]• To be free to pursue participatory (multi-alliance) relations [MP]

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Starting Here

Are there interactions between these six objectives?

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Human Sustenance

HumanParticipation

StateSustenance

StateParticipation

AllianceSustenance

AllianceParticipation

Human Sustenance

HumanParticipation

StateSustenance

StateParticipation

AllianceSustenance

AllianceParticipation

And Continuing Here

Are there interactions between these six objectives?

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Stable Economy Social Well Being Legitimate Governance

Rule of Law

Human Sustenance

HumanParticipation

StateSustenance

StateParticipation

AllianceSustenance

AllianceParticipation

Optimally …for each identified Interaction

We’ll Identify the following …

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Type of SSE Operation(Objective and

Approach)

The Identified Interaction

(Sector & Objective)

When this interaction is most positive

When this interaction is most negative

Relative Importance vis-à-vis other

interactions

A Few Examples …of what we’re looking for

From the Guiding Principles …1. Prioritizing short-term stability vs. confronting impunity2. Using local security forces to enhance legitimacy vs. using international security to ensure effectiveness3. Applying force vs. maintaining mission legitimacy4. Public order functions performed by the military vs. the police5. Short-term security imperatives vs. investments in broader security reform

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Guiding Principle

SSE Tradeoff

Type of SSE Operation(Objective and Approach)

The Identified Interaction(s)

(Sector & Objective)

When this interaction is most positive

When this interaction is most

negative

Relative Importance

vis-à-vis other interactions

1[SS, MS]

(Retention of ‘Rebels’ in Positions of Responsibility )

RoL [SS](Grvn Ruled by Law)

SWB [HP](Belief in Pol Justice)

When rebels critical for essential

srvcs

When rebels were responsible for war

crimesVey High

2[HP, SS]

(State Provided Law Enforcement)

SG [HP, SS, SP, MS](Human and MS

perception of legitimacy)

When state forces are ‘legitimate’

and capable

When state forces aren’t

‘legitimate’ or capable

Mod High

3[HS, SS, MS]

(Applying Force without Sanction)

RoL & SG [HP, SS, SP](Maintain HN State as Representing People)

When anarchy is threatening

When ‘national identity’ is most in

jeopardyMod High

4[HP, SS]

(Using Police to Provide Security)

SSE [SS](Maintain a non-rebellious

environment)

When police can manage

organized ‘criime’

When civil unrest threatens economic

viabilityMedium

5[SS]

(Inkblot stabilization strategy)RoL [HS]

(Focus on SSE as #1)When State is

very illegitimate

When local autonomy is the

primary obstacle to nation/state bldg

Mod High

Backup Slides

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Necessary Conditions for a Safe and Secure Environment

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“Ability of the people to conduct their daily lives without fear of systematic or large-scale violence”

There are context sensitive interactions amongst these emerging conditions ...• that determine (in principle) an optimal sequencing of development actions• but that sequencing may not be optimal in the context of state building

Each Objective is uniquely complex:Sustainable Economy

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“Ability of the people to pursue opportunities for livelihoods within a system of economic governance bound by law”

There are context sensitive interactions amongst these emerging conditions ...• that determine (in principle) an optimal sequencing of development actions• but that sequencing may not be optimal in the context of state building

Each Objective is uniquely complex:Social Well Being

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“Ability of the people to be free from want of basic needs and to coexist peacefully in communities with opportunities for advancement.”

There are context sensitive interactions amongst these emerging conditions ...• that determine (in principle) an optimal sequencing of development actions• but that sequencing may not be optimal in the context of state building

Looking Deeper into Tradeoffs …often a temporal component

• Crackdown on Illegal Economy– Security and Government Legitimacy

• Decrease in short term• Increase over long term … if the people trust long enough

– Economy and Social Well Being• Decreases in short term• Increases over long term … if the people trust long enough

• Institute ‘Liberal’ Reforms (human rights; freedom of speech, assembly, …)– If attributed to the State …

• Social Well Being and Government (State) Legitimacy– Increases in short term– May decrease over long term … if security concern dominates

• Security – Decreases in short term– May increase over long term if state legitimacy increases

– If attributed to Non-State Actors …• Government (State) Legitimacy

– Decreases in short term – May continue to decrease over long term … if security concern dominates or state fails to usurp ownership of the process

• Security – Decreases in short term– May continue to decrease over long term … if legitimacy concern dominates

18The question is … how close to a tipping point are they?