Second Committee – 5 November 2012 Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Latin American and the Caribbean.

Second Committee – 5 November 2012

Alicia BárcenaExecutive Secretary

Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

Latin American and the Caribbean after Rio + 20

The region in a nutshell• Three realities: South America, Central America, and the

Caribbean• Managing the current economic situation trying to preserve

achievements• The region has remarkable assets…

– A young, increasingly skilled, population– More than two decades of democratic regimes in place and

institutional development– Economic growth with macroeconomic stability and rising formal

employment– Lower poverty rates and income inequality indices– Abundant natural resources

• … But also weaknesses– Production and export structures based on static comparative

advantages– Low incorporation of knowledge and technological revolution

advances– Investment, used as an adjustment variable, has not been able to

grow in a sustainable manner– Fiscal space and structure are small and regressive – Labour market informality

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH, INFLATION RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, PUBLIC DEBT, FISCAL BALANCE, AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, 2000-2012a

(Percentage change and percentage of GDP)

The region has enjoyed a decade of stable macroeconomic conditions

PERCENTAGE OF COUNTRIES FROM EACH REGION CLASSIFIED AS MIDDLE-INCOME

LAC is predominantly a middle-income region: 85% of all countries fall in that category

Only five of all 33 countries in the region are not classified as middle-income: 1 is low-income and 4 are high-income.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

América Latina y el

Caribe

Asia del Sur Oriente Medio y Norte de

Africa

Asia del Este y Pacífico

Africa Sub-Sahariana

Europa y Asia Central

Po

rcen

taje

s de

l tota

l

Poverty and extreme poverty are at their lowest rates in 20 years

LATIN AMERICA: POVERTY AND INDIGENCE, 1980-2011a

(Percentages and millions of people)

Trends in poverty rates in the last three decades…

Progress and gaps I: 1990-2012 (latest available data)

• Poverty: from 48% to 30.4%

• Income inequality: Gini from 54% to 52%

• Unemployment: 11 to 6.4%• Social Public expenditure:

10% to 18% • Annual growth of total

GDP: 3.6 % to 6% • Annual growth of per

capita GPP: 1.9% to 4.8 per cent

• Malaria decreased by 53%

• Productivity index down by 20%.

• Secondary school completion by income (2008): aprox. 84% rich vs 25% poor

• Maternal mortality: teenage pregnancy

• Gender equality in education but not in the labor market, income distribution and property rights

• Under-nourished: from 54M to 52 M

Progress Gaps

Progress and gaps II: 1990-2012

• Access to water: 83% to 93%

• Access to sanitation 69% to 79%

• Ozone-depleting substances: 74,600 tons to 5,400 tons

• Energy efficiency: 15%

• People with no electricity: 39 million

• People in slums: 105 million to 110 million

• Renewable energy supply: from 25% to 23%

• Food security• Forest cover: from

52% to 47%

Progress Gaps

High rates of deforestation: twice the world rates……

EVOLUCIÓN DE LA SUPERFICIE Y COBERTURA BOSCOSA DEL TERRITORIO, 1990-2005(En miles de hectáreas y porcentajes)

Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de Superficie Nacional de Bosque (FRA 2005) y Superficie Terrestre Nacional (FAOSTAT) ,

984 123

939 208915 494

49,146,8

45,6

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1990 2000 2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

Superficie de bosques (en hectáreas) Cobertura boscosa del territorio (en porcentajes)

Current production and consumption patterns are not environmentally sustainable...

50

60

70

80

90

100

The demographic dependency rate has fallen sharply at the regional level

LATIN AMERICA (14 COUNTRIES): POPULATION LIVING IN HOUSEHOLDS WITHOUT SOCIAL SECURITY MEMBERSHIP AND WHICH DO NOT RECEIVE ANY PENSION OR PUBLIC WELFARE TRANSFERS, BY INCOME QUINTILE, 2009

(Percentages)

The social protection systems: present and future financial gaps

Main structural gaps to be closed

• In order to move towards productive convergence, policymakers must look beyond the price boom: economic policies based on a relevant, long-term, sustainable vision at the macroeconomic, productive and territorial levels.

• To take advantage of the opportunities provided by the international context, exports must have a higher value added and knowledge content, with the focus on diversification of production, integration of sustainable production processes, re-evaluation of global and regional partnerships and strengthening open regionalism.

• Consensus on priorities and respective financing: a fiscal covenant with a redistributive impact – with access to innovation, job security and internalization of externalities.

• New equation: State-market-society.

LATIN AMERICA (18 COUNTRIES): STRUCTURAL HETEROGENEITY INDICATORS, AROUND 2009(Percentages)

Productive structure and employment: concentrated in low-productivity sectors

Capacities: the link education - employment reproduces and eventually expands social inequalities and povertyLATIN AMERICA (18 COUNTRIES): MONTHLY LABOUR INCOME OF THE EMPLOYED POPULATION,

BY AGE GROUP AND LEVEL OF SCHOOLING(Dollars at 2000 prices, PPP)

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EVOLUTION OF EXPORT STRUCTURE TO THE WORLD FROM THE1980s (As percentages of regional total)

Reprimarization..a disturbing concentration in commodities

• Gradual convergence between the Post-2015 and the SDGs to achieve coherence, consistency and universality of purpose

• Focus on 5-10 of humanity’s biggest issues/problems that particularly hinder sustainable development

• Participatory-bottom-up processes: from national to regional to global, engaging civil society, academia and institutions

• Sustainability measures beyond GDP: feasible indicators with a robust assessment of data gaps and statistical capacity to ensure monitoring

• Financing for development: beyond ODA , include credit, investment and innovation

• Cooperation for technology transfer and innovation

Towards the SDGs: the process

Ensuring Sustainability means:• Combatting poverty by achieving equality with a

rights approach• Eradicating hunger with food security• Reducing maternal mortality through

reproductive health• Avoiding reprimarization with fair natural

resources governance respecting sovereign rights • Moving from basic need approach to universal

access to social protection, clean energy, water and shelter

• Ecosystemic approaches to land, water and marine management

An integrated approach to sustainable development calls for policy coordination

• Industrial policy• Macroeconomic policy for development• Social and labour policy• Environmental sustainability• Reforming the institutional architecture for

development: empower ECOSOC• Regional cooperation as the means to address

climate vulnerability and adaptation, build environmental, economic and social resilience, achieve food security, protect biodiversity, oceans

Follow-up to Rio+20: Actions and considerations at the Regional Level- Latin America and the Caribbean

Calendar of Events for 2012-2013

Date Event

22-23 October 2012 (Santiago, Chile)

ITC and Sustainable Development in Latin America and the Caribbean: Policy experiences and initiatives seminar

6-7 November 2012 (Santiago, Chile)

First meeting of the focal points appointed by the Governments of the signatory countries of the Declaration on the application of Principle 10 of the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development

4-5 February 2013 (Bogota, Colombia)

Regional Consultation on Post-2015 Development agenda/MDGs-SDGsRegional Coordinating Mechanism (RCM)- A Joint Report on MDGs

10-11 April 2013 (Santiago, Chile)

May-2013

Regional Implementation Meeting (RIM) of the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD-20)Preparatory Meeting for SIDS

Summing up• Current patterns of economic growth are not

consistent with a sustainable development• Structural change is needed to shift current

patterns of production, consumption, distribution, the technological paradigm

• Green technology and taxes are key to change BAU scenario: sustainable transport and urban-greening

• Urgency to change the existing relative price structure : green fiscal policy

• Regional cooperation is key to accelerate that transition

• Natural resource governance is key to achieve sustainable development in the LAC region

Alicia BárcenaExecutive Secretary

Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean