SECC – CCSP Meeting November 7, 2008 Downscaling GCMs Downscaling GCMs to local and regional to local and regional levels levels Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences Guillermo A. Baigorria Guillermo A. Baigorria e-mail: e-mail: [email protected][email protected]http://plaza.ufl.edu/gbaigorr/GB/ http://plaza.ufl.edu/gbaigorr/GB/ SECC-WMO joint Meeting on SECC-WMO joint Meeting on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations to Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations to Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries at the National and Regional Levels at the National and Regional Levels Orlando, Florida, USA, 18-21 November 2008 Orlando, Florida, USA, 18-21 November 2008
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SECC – CCSP Meeting November 7, 2008 Downscaling GCMs to local and regional levels Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences Guillermo A. Baigorria e-mail:
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SECC – CCSP MeetingNovember 7, 2008
Downscaling GCMsDownscaling GCMs to local and regional levels to local and regional levels
Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences
Guillermo A. BaigorriaGuillermo A. Baigorriae-mail:e-mail: [email protected]@ifas.ufl.edu
SECC-WMO joint Meeting on SECC-WMO joint Meeting on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations to Agriculture, Forestry and FisheriesClimate Change Impacts and Adaptations to Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
at the National and Regional Levels at the National and Regional LevelsOrlando, Florida, USA, 18-21 November 2008Orlando, Florida, USA, 18-21 November 2008
SECC – CCSP MeetingNovember 7, 2008
James W. JonesJames W. JonesUniversity of FloridaUniversity of Florida
SECC-WMO joint Meeting on SECC-WMO joint Meeting on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations to Agriculture, Forestry and FisheriesClimate Change Impacts and Adaptations to Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
at the National and Regional Levels at the National and Regional LevelsOrlando, Florida, USA, 18-21 November 2008Orlando, Florida, USA, 18-21 November 2008
James J. O’BrienJames J. O’BrienCenter for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction
Studies – Florida State UniversityStudies – Florida State University
Dong W. ShinDong W. ShinCenter for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction
Studies – Florida State UniversityStudies – Florida State University
James W. HansenJames W. HansenInternational Research Institute International Research Institute
Bias correction based on cumulative probability distributionsBias correction based on cumulative probability distributions
(a) Frequency correction(a) Frequency correction
(b) Amount correction(b) Amount correction
Observed climatologyRaw hindcast
Observed climatologyFreq. corrected
Observed climatologyFreq. corrected
Frequency correctedHindcast value
Frequency & amount correctedHindcast value
x
F(x)
x
F(x)
x
F(x)
x
F(x)
Observed climatologyFreq. & amountcorrected
GB
Baigorria, GA, Jones, JW, Shin, DW, Mishra, A, O’Brien, JJ. 2007. Assessing uncertainties in crop model simulations using daily bias-corrected regional circulation model outputs. Climate Res. 34(3): 211-222
SECC – CCSP MeetingNovember 7, 2008
GCM’s Nov-Dec-Jan rainfall dataGCM’s Nov-Dec-Jan rainfall data
GB
mm0 10 20 30 40 50
Baigorria, GA, Hansen, JW, Ward, N, Jones, JW, O’Brien, JJ. 2008. Assessing predictability of cotton yields in the Southeastern USA based on regional atmospheric circulation and surface temperatures. J. Applied Meteorol. Climatol. 47(1): 76-91
To extract the To extract the historical recordhistorical record
Time series NDJ’s Rainfall
SECC – CCSP MeetingNovember 7, 2008
GCM’s Nov-Dec-Jan rainfall dataGCM’s Nov-Dec-Jan rainfall data
GeospatialGeospatialaggregationaggregation
GB
mm0 10 20 30 40 50
Baigorria, GA, Hansen, JW, Ward, N, Jones, JW, O’Brien, JJ. 2008. Assessing predictability of cotton yields in the Southeastern USA based on regional atmospheric circulation and surface temperatures. J. Applied Meteorol. Climatol. 47(1): 76-91
Ensemble of daily values based on the climatology for each weather station Ensemble of daily values based on the climatology for each weather station GB
rvv ˆv96.1 96.1
0 1
sofTotal
sfollowingsofP
sofTotal
sfollowingsofP
'1 #
'1 '1 #ˆ
'0 #
'0 '1 #ˆ
11
01
Temperature, Incoming solar radiation,Rainfall amount:
SECC-WMO joint Meeting on SECC-WMO joint Meeting on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations to Agriculture, Forestry and FisheriesClimate Change Impacts and Adaptations to Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
at the National and Regional Levels at the National and Regional LevelsOrlando, Florida, USA, 18-21 November 2008Orlando, Florida, USA, 18-21 November 2008