SEB's Savings Barometer graphs Q2 2010

Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010

Savings Barometer

QII 2010


SEB Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010

Total household savings = bank deposits, life insurance, mutual funds, bonds, government savings plans, premium pensions and - when noted - directly held equities and housing.

Sources: Statistics Sweden, Bank of Sweden, Swedish National Board of Student Aid (CSN), Swedish Insurance Federation, Swedish Mutual Fund Association, Svensk Fondstatistik/MoneyMate, NASDAQ OM Stockholm Exchange, NGM/NDX, SHB, Nordea Life, SEB Trygg Life, Swedish Pensions Agency, maklarstatistik.se, interim and annual reports of companies.

Compiled by Carl Holm, SEB Trygg Life


Development Second Quarter 2010

•New savings were 46bn kronor. Savings in bank deposits were 34bn an insurance savings were 14bn.

•On the Stockholm Stock Exchange (NASDAQ OM) the AGFX index decreased by 3.7 per cent.

•Housing prices increased by 3.3 per cent.

•Households increased borrowing by 2.2 per cent during the second quarter. For twelve months the increase was 8.4 per cent.

•SEB had a 12.6 per cent market share and Swedbank 14.7 per cent. Alecta had 9.8 per cent, Skandia 9.5 and Nordea 8.9.


Development Second Quarter 2010

SEK bnValue, beginning of quarter 9,601Savings +46Value, shareholdings directly held -27Value, housing +135Value, other assets -85Value, end of quarter 9,670 Loans -2,614Net assets 7,056


Swedish Household Savings

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

3 500 000

4 000 000

4 500 000

04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV

Bank depositsTrad insuranceUnit-linked insuranceMutual fundsBondsPremium PensionsShareholdingsHousing

Total household savings have increased by 50.9% since year- end 2004, from SEK 6,410 bn to SEK 9,670 bn.

SEK m


Total Household Savings Market Market Shares June 30 2010 (March 31 2010)

Others12.1 (12.5)%

Government3.4 (3.4)

Alecta9.8 (9.7) %

Folksam5.0 (4.9)%

LF4.7 (4.7)%

AMF7.7 (7.7)%

SPP3.4 (3.3)%

Handelsbanken8.4 (8.1)%

Nordea8.9 (8.8)%

Skandia9.5 (9.5)%

Swedbank14.7 (14.7)%

SEB12.6 (12.4)%


Household Savings Market Shares June 30 2010

Share, per cent Bank Trad. U-L Mutual Bonds Prem Total deposits insur. insur. funds Pens

SEB 11.6 10.4 26.1 14.7 8.5 1.9 12.6 Alecta 25.8 9.8 Skandia 2.8 17.3 19.1 0.0 1.1 9.5 LF 3.5 6.8 9.0 0.9 2.9 4.7 Folksam 10.8 7.6 5.0 AMF 17.0 3.6 0.8 8.9 7.7 Handelsbanken 18.8 1.3 8.8 11.1 19.5 2.3 8.4 Storebrand/SPP 5.7 6.3 6.4 3.4 Nordea 16.6 1.2 2.0 22.2 10.3 3.8 8.9 Swedbank 24.1 0.8 14.1 31.7 13.1 18.8 14.7 Government 36.3 26.5 3.4 Others 22.5 3.0 3.3 18.5 12.3 27.3 12.1


”Security Savings”

Bank depositsTrad insuranceU-L insurancePremium PensionsMutual fundsBondsShares

December 31 1999 June 30 2010

41.3% 49.4%


Total Household Savings

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV

HousingShareholdingsPremium PensionsBondsMutual fundsU-L insuranceTrad insuranceBank deposits


Total Household Savings Market Shares (excluding shareholdings and housing) June 30 2010 (December 31 2004)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV

Others 12.1% (9.3)Government 3.1% (3.3)Folksam 5.0% (4.3)Alecta 9.8% (11.2)AMF 7.7% (7.7)LF 4.7% (4.9)Storebrand 3.4% (-)Handelsbanken 8.4% (11.2)Nordea 8.9% (9.2)Skandia 9.5% (11.5)Swedbank 14.7% (14.0)SEB 12.6% (13.3)


Bank Deposits, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV

Other banks 22.5% (20.6)

Swedbank 24.1% (25.3)

Nordea 16.6% (18.9)

Handelsbanken 18.8% (15.7)

LF 3.5% (2.9)

Skandia 2.8% (3.9)

SEB 11.6% (12.6)


Traditional Insurance, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV

Others incl Swedbank 3.8% (1.5)

AMF 17.0% (16.3)

Nordea 1.2% (1.3)

Alecta 25.8% (25.6)

Storebrand 5.7% (-)


Folksam 10.8 (7.0)

LF 6.8% (7.1)

Skandia 17.3% (20.3)

SEB 10.4% (13.0)


Unit-linked Insurance, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV

Others 3.3% (2.1)

AMF 3.6% (2.6)

Swedbank 14.1% (17.2)

Storebrand 6.3% (-)


Nordea 2.0% (2.9)

Folksam 7.6% (5.5)

LF 9.0% (9.3)

Skandia 19.2% (22.3)

SEB 26.1% (24.4)


Mutual Funds, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV

Övriga 19.3% (16.6)

Swedbank 31.7% (31.5)

Nordea 22.2% (20.8)


Folksam - (2.3)

LF 0,9% (1.8)

SEB 14,7% (14.1)


Premium Pensions, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004)

0%10%20%

30%40%50%60%70%

80%90%

100%

04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV

Others 27.3% (17.5)

Staten 26,5% (33.1)

Swedbank 18.8% (12.9)

Nordea 3.8% (2.5)

Storebrand 6.4% (-)


AMF 8,9% (8.4)

Folksam - (6.1)

LF 2.9% (4.2)

Skandia 1.1% (1.9)

SEB 1.9% (2.2)


Bonds, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV

Others 12.3% (12.6)

Gov't 36.3% (52.8)

Swedbank 13.1% (10.4)

Nordea 10.3% (5.9)


SEB 8.5% (3.3)

The change in bonds issued bySEB QI 2007 is mainly caused by the

technique used for measurementand is significantly overstating

real changes


Savings - Distributed by Company

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

SEB

Swed

bank

Skan

dia

Nordea

Hand

elsba

nken LF AMF

Alecta SP

PSEK m 04-IV 05-II 05-IV 06-II 06-IV 07-II 07-IV 08-II 08-IV 09-II 09-IV 10-II


0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

Bankdeposits

Tradinsurance

Unit-linkedins

Mutual funds Bonds PremiumPensions

SEK m

04-IV 05-II 05-IV 06-II 06-IV 07-II 07-IV 08-II 08-IV 09-II 09-IV 10-II

Savings - Distributed by Assets


New SavingsQuarterly figures

-40 000

-30 000

-20 000

-10 000

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

05-I 05-II 05-III

05-IV

06-I 06-II 06-III

06-IV

07-I 07-II 07-III

07-IV

08-I 08-II 08-III

08-IV

09-I 09-II 09-III

09-IV

10-I 10-II

SEK m

Excluding Premium Pensions


New Savings12 month figures

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000

05-I 05-II 05-III 05-IV

06-I 06-II 06-III 06-IV

07-I 07-II 07-III 07-IV

08-I 08-II 08-III 08-IV

09-I 09-II 09-III 09-IV

10-I 10-II

SEK m

Excluding Premium Pensions


New SavingsSecond Quarter 2010

-15 000 -10 000 -5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000

Bank deposits

Trad insurance

U-L insurance

Mutual funds

Bonds

Premium Pensions

SEK m


New SavingsSecond Quarter 2010

0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000

SEB

Skandia

LF

Folksam

Handelsbanken

Nordea

Swedbank

AMF

Alecta

SPP

SEK m


Change of Total SavingsSecond Quarter 2010

-60 000 -40 000 -20 000 0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000

Housing

Shareholdings

Bank deposits

Trad insurance

U-L insurance

Mutual funds

Bonds

Premium Pensions

SEK m


Change of Total SavingsSecond Quarter 2010

-30 000 -25 000 -20 000 -15 000 -10 000 -5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000

SEB

Skandia

LF

Nordea

Swedbank

AMF

SHB

SPP

Alecta

Gov't

Others

SEK m


New Savings and Change of Savings Stock

-300 000

-200 000

-100 000

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

05-I 05-II 05-III 05-IV 06-I 06-II 06-III 06-IV 07-I 07-II 07-III 07-IV 08-I 08-II 08-III 08-IV 09-I 09-II 09-III 09-IV 10-I 10-II

New SavingsChange of Savings Stock

SEK m


Houshold Assets

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

99-IV 00-II00-IV 01-II

01-IV 02-II02-IV 03-II

03-IV 04-II04-IV 05-II 05IV 06-II

06-IV 07-II07-IV 08-II

08-IV 09-II09-IV 10-II

SEK bnFixed-income Equities Housing


”Balance sheet” of Households

0

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

99-IV 01-II02-IV 04-II

05-IV 07-II08-IV 10-II

SEK m Assets Liabilities


Share Prices in Stockholm

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

2010

AGFX, 1995-12-30=100 (linked to SIX GX)


New houshold loans QIII compared with corresponding quarter previous yearQII 2010

QII 2009

QII 2008

QII 2007

QII 2006

QII 2005

+ 57 bn

+ 60 bn

+ 68 bn

+ 62 bn

+ 55 bn

+ 53 bn


Household loans (Change in per cent compared to previous year)

June 30 2010

March 31 2010

December 31 2009

September 30 2009

June 30 2009

+ 8.4%

+ 8.8%

+ 8.5%

+ 7.7%

+ 7.3%


Household Assets and Liabilities June 30 2010

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

Assets Liabilities

Housing/Mortgage loans Equities/Bank loans Fixed-income/Consumer credits

SEK bn


Household Assets and Liabilities June 30 2010

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

Ass'97

Liab'97

Ass'00

Liab'00

Ass'03

Liab'03

Ass'06

Liab'06

Ass'10

Liab'10

Housing/Mortgage loans Equities/Bank loans Fixed-income/Consumer credits

First Quarter of Indicated Year, SEK bn., for 2010 Second Quarter


Loans

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV

Mortgage loansBank loansConsumer creditsGov't student loans

SEK m SEK 200bn reclassifiedfrom mortgage to bank

loans in QIV 2007


Households’ liability/asset ratio

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

99-IV 00-II00-IV 01-II

01-IV 02-II02-IV 03-II

03-IV 04-II04-IV 05-II

05-IV 06-II06-IV 07-II

07-IV 08-II08-IV 09-II

09-IV 10-II

Per cent Liability/asset ratio


Savings - Distributed by Company

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

SEB Swedbank Skandia Nordea Handelsbanken LF AMF Alecta

SEK m

01-I 01-III 02-I 02-III 03-I 03-III 04-I 04-III 05-I 05-III 06-I 06-III 07-I 07-III 08-I 08-III 09-I 09-III 10-I

Slide not updated


Savings - Distributed by Assets

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

Bank deposits Trad insurance U-L insurance Mutual funds PremiumPensions

Bonds

SEK m

01-I 01-III 02-I 02-III 03-I 03-III 04-I 04-III 05-I 05-III 06-I 06-III 07-I 07-III 08-I08-III 09-I 09-III 10-I

Slide not updated

SEB's Savings Barometer graphs Q2 2010

Economy & Finance

seb savings barometer

insurance savings

new savings

savings barometerqii

security savings

end of quarter

government savings plans

iv09ivsavings barometer