Top Banner
1 Investor presentation Paris June 2008
50

SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

Nov 12, 2014

Download

Economy & Finance

SEBgroup

 
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

1

Investor presentation

Paris June 2008

Page 2: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

Macroeconomics: Sweden

Page 3: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

33

Sweden is one of the strongest economies in Europe

Rated Aaa/AAA/AAA

2007 GDP growth was 2.6% 2008 forecast around 2½%

Large budget surplus

Stable housing market underpinned by high employment levels and affluent households

Page 4: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

44

Strong government finances

Page 5: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

55

Sweden has outperformed Euro Zone

The real domestic economy slowing gradually as the international economy decelerates

Deceleration in private consumption modest thanks to good income growth and high savings

Expected GDP growth of 2.4% this year - close to Sweden’s trend growth rate and stronger than in the Euro Zone

Page 6: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

66

Unemployment will fall a bit further and then slowly climb

Inflationary pressures will remain for another six months and then gradually ease

The Swedish Riksbank decided to raise the repo rate to 4.25 in mid February 2008

The large government surplus will shrink on the back of slower growth and expansive fiscal policy

0807060504030201009998979695949392

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Source: Statistics Sweden

UnemploymentPer cent of labour force

Unemployment close to bottoming out, inflation well contained

Page 7: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

Overview of the SEB Group

Page 8: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

88

SEB of today – an attractive platform

More than 5 million customers

Global top rankings withinseveral areas

21,000 employees

Customer centric organisation

40%

25%

35%

Merchant Banking

Wealth Management

Retail Banking

Life

2,500 large corporates& institutions

•5 million private individuals

400,000 SME’s

Per cent of operating income

Customercentric

Page 9: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

99

1800 1900 2000

SEB historySEB history

1972 Stockholms Enskilda Bank and Skandinaviska Banken merge

1982 SEB International 1997 Trygg Hansa1998 Acquisition of three

Baltic banks1999 BfG – Germany

1972 Stockholms Enskilda Bank and Skandinaviska Banken merge

1982 SEB International 1997 Trygg Hansa1998 Acquisition of three

Baltic banks1999 BfG – Germany

1856 Stockholms Enskilda Bankfounded

1864 Skandinaviska Bankenfounded in Gothenburg

1856 Stockholms Enskilda Bankfounded

1864 Skandinaviska Bankenfounded in Gothenburg

2004 Codan – Denmark2004 Bank Agio –

Ukraine2005 Privatbanken

– Norway2006 SEB 150 years2007 Merger SEB BoLån

and SEB AB2007 Factorial Bank -

Ukraine

2004 Codan – Denmark2004 Bank Agio –

Ukraine2005 Privatbanken

– Norway2006 SEB 150 years2007 Merger SEB BoLån

and SEB AB2007 Factorial Bank -

Ukraine 9

Page 10: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

1010

Ratings of SEB ABRating target set by SEB Board at AA

Moody’s S&P Fitch DBRS

Bank Senior Rating

Short Term P-1 A-1 F-1 R-1 (middle)

Long Term Aa2 A+ A+ AA (low)

Outlook Positive Stable Positive Stable

Last Action Outlook change Upgrade Outlook change Initial rating

Date Jul-07 Oct-06 Jul-06 Dec-06

Page 11: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

1111

SEB’s income mix is different 0 20 40 60 80 100

Net fee income Net financial income Other income Net interest income

Page 12: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

12

Share of operating profitJan – Dec 2007

6% 5%

8%8%

5%4%

6%

8%

50%

Germany SwedenOther

37%

38%

10%15%

Retail Banking

Wealth Management

Life Merchant Banking

Geography - Excl. capital gains of Baltic real estate saleDivisions - Adjusted for Other and Eliminations

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Norway

Finland

Denmark

19%

20%

Page 13: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

1313

Positive jawsSEB Group*, 12 month rolling SEKm

14.715.8

20.819.3

9.6

2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1 2008

* Excluding restructuring costs and one-off charges of SEK 890m in Q4 2005

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Q1-04

Q2-04

Q3-04

Q4-04

Q1-05

Q2-05

Q3-05

Q4-05

Q1-06

Q2-06

Q3-06

Q4-06

Q1-07

Q2-07

Q3-07

Q4-07

Q1-08

Income Expenses Operating profit

* 17.0 excluding one-off charges of SEK 890m in Q4 2005

ROE %Cost/income ratio Cost/income ratio

0.65 0.650.58 0.57

0.69

2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1 2008

13.2 excluding portfolios

0.62 excluding portfolios

* 0.62 excluding one-off charges of SEK 890m in Q4 2005

Page 14: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

1414

62.772.4

2007 2008

Core capitalSEKbn

Hybridcapital

"Bookequity" 55.0 61.6

7.710.9

8.3% 8.9%Core

capital ratio

+9.7

Strong balance sheet

Mar Mar

Key driver: Profit Growth

The strategic valueSupport organic growth

Enable acquisitions

Create financial flexibility

Page 15: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

Asset quality

Page 16: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

1616

Credit exposure – on and off balanceSEKbn

Mar 2008 Nordic German Baltic Total

Corporates 425 41% 73 19% 84 49% 581 36%

Property Management 104 10% 85 22% 24 14% 213 13%

Households 302 29% 88 23% 56 33% 446 28%

Public Administration 18 2% 74 19% 4 2% 96 6%

Total non-banks 849 320 168 1,336

Banks 199 19% 68 18% 2 1% 269 17%

Total 1,048 387 170 1,605

65% 24% 11%

Page 17: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

1717

0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,70

2003 2004 2005 2006 Jan-Sep 2007

2007 Q1 2008 *

Germany Baltics Nordics SEB Group

%

Level of Net Credit Losses

* Annualised

Page 18: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

Funding

Page 19: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

1919

Short and long term funding

CP Programmes– Sweden– France– Global CP

ECP

USCP

US Extendible

CD’s– Yankee CD– London Branch

CD’s– Yankee CD– London Branch

Senior unsecured bonds– Germany – Sweden

Structured bonds

Covered bonds– Germany

Public (Pfandbriefe)Mortgage (Pfandbriefe)

– Sweden (Säkerställda Obligationer)

Subordinated debt/Hybrid Tier 1

Short Term Funding Long Term Funding

Page 20: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

2020

Covered bonds – Strategic funding source using two funding centres

Säkerställda Obligationer via Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ)

– On tap domestic SEK issuance Aaa (Moody’s)

– Diversification via EUR benchmark issuance

– Outstanding amounts Mar 2008

Swedish Covered Bonds: SEK 144.4bn (EUR 15.4bn)

Pfandbriefe via SEB AG

– German public Pfandbriefe Aaa (Moody’s)

– German mortgage Pfandbriefe Aaa (Moody’s)

– Outstanding amounts Mar 2008Mortgage Pfandbriefe: EUR 4.1bn (SEK 38.2bn)

Public Sector Pfandbriefe: EUR 11.3bn (SEK 106bn)

Sweden (Stockholm) Germany (Frankfurt)

Page 21: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

2121

● Over collateral within the Swedish covered pool 45% (7bn EUR) as of March 2008

● Free eligible asset pledgeable within central banks 22bn EUR after 5 % haircut

Overall funding structureSEB Group, March 2008SEK 1,598bn (~EUR 170bn)

21%

10%

3%3%7%

2%45%

9%

Mortgage covered bonds, Sweden

CPs/CDs

Mortgage covered bonds, GermanyPublic covered bonds, GermanySenior debt

Subordinated debt

Deposits – Financial institutions

Deposits – General public

Page 22: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

222222

400600800

1,0001,200

Q12005

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Lending to the publicSEKbn Q1 +8% yoy

Deposits from the publicSEKbn Q1 +14% yoy

Deposit Development

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q12008

Deposits to loans ratio

400500600700800

Q12005

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Page 23: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

2323

7.710.9

Net liquidity position across maturities31 March

0

100

200

300

1 week

2 weeks

4 weeks

2 months

3 months

4 months

5 months

6 months

9 months

12 months

SEKbn EURbn32

22

11

0

Page 24: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

The Swedish Housing Market and SEB Cover Pool

Page 25: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

25

House prices

House prices in Sweden have risen each year in the past decade

Compared with other countries, Swedish house price inflation has been less dramatic

Riksbank expects house prices continue to rise but at a slower rate

Swedish house price growthYear-on-year precentage change

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

House price growth. 1995 = 100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Denmark UK USA Sweden

Page 26: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

26

The Swedish household sector

In recent months, household borrowing has increased at a slightly slower rate than during the past two yearsLoans from mortgage institutions still account for the largest part of lending to households

The interest ratio is historically still low and amounted to 4.4 per cent of disposable income in December 2007Households’ debt ratio and the interest ratio are expected to rise slightly

Household borrowing (Annual percentage change)

-20

2

46

81012

1416

18

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mortgage institutions Total

Household debt and post-tax interest expenditures in relation to disposable income (Per cent)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 20070

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Debt ratio (Left) Interest expenditure ratio (Right)

Page 27: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

27

Duration of fixed interest periods for new mortgage loans in Sweden 1997-2008Per cent

Source: The Riksbank

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Variable rate Fixed > 3 months - 5 years Fixed > 5 years

Page 28: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

28

The Swedish Covered Bond Act, 2004Functional legislation (non-specialist principle)

Eligible collateral– Residential property (75% LTV)– Agricultural property (70% LTV)– Commercial property (60% LTV, max 10% of collateral pool)– Substitute assets max 20% of collateral pool

Holders of covered bonds have a preferential claim on the asset pool, which is monitored by an independent inspector

– Asset pool, covered bonds and derivatives are separated from the bankruptcy estate to allow for uninterrupted payments

Detailed regulations governing cover pool management– Restrictive ALM rules including daily NPV matching and stress tests,

providing robust protection against market risks– Regular valuation of mortgage values required by law, forcing issuer to

replenish pool in case of housing market downturn– According to the law, loans in arrears for more than 60 days will not be

counted towards the value of the cover pool

Page 29: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

29

Characteristics of SEB cover pool

Loans originated by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ)

Pool notional SEK 213bn (EUR 23bn)

Type of loans 100% residential Swedish mortgages

Geographic distribution Across Sweden with a concentration in urban areas

Substitute assets No substitute assets are included

Number of loans 438,047

Average loan balance SEK 486,357 (EUR 52,000)

Average loan balance per property SEK 996,893 (EUR 107,000)

Weighted average LTV Approx 44 %

Weighted average seasoning Approx 40 months

Over Collateral 45%

Rate type Float 55%, Fixed 45%

Pool type Dynamic

Loans in arrears >60 days Will not be included in the matching calculations but will remain in the cover pool

March 2008

Page 30: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

30

Distribution of the cover pool

By geography By property type

67%

23%

10%Tenant Owned

Multi Family Single FamilyHouse

4%7%

18%

10%8% 12%

41%

East excl Stockholm

GothenburgStockholm

West exclGothenburg

Malmö

South excl Malmö

North

Page 31: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

3131

The Swedish mortgage business displays excellent asset quality

0.00%

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.04%

0.05%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

Non-performing amount Losses (Gross)

Non-performing loans and loan losses (Gross) balances less than 1 bp* 2008-03-31

Page 32: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

Appendices

Page 33: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

Bond Portfolio

Page 34: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

3434

Capital Markets and other13%

8%

21%58%

Corporate bonds Financial institutions

Gov't Covered bonds

Credit & Portfolio Management

47%42%

11%Structured credits Financial institutions

Covered bonds etc

Trading Investments

Merchant Banking Bond Portfolios31 March, 2008

Volume SEK 91bn Volume SEK 131bn

Page 35: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

3535

Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 AccP/L -779 -990 -872 -2,641MTM (SEKm)

Equity -291 -407 -1,630 -2,328

-1,070 -1,397 -2,502 -4,969

Structured creditsReduced volume: SEK 63bn (71)AAA-rating: 98.3% (99.3)MTM losses highly dependent on seniority, underlying assets and vintage

Financial institutions Unchanged volume: SEK 55bn (55)Rapid credit spread wideningMTM losses on all financial holdings, not only investment banks

Bond investment portfolio – status31 March, 2008

Covered bonds etc. SEK 14bn (5)

Page 36: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

3636

CMBS 7%

CMO 13%

RMBS 35%

Sub prime 3%

CLO 17%

CDO 7%

ABS 18%

Direct and indirect

exposure

Distribution of Investment portfolio31 March, 2008

FR 10%

IT 6%NL 7%

Other 8%FI 2%

SE 2%DE 4%

US 25%

UK 18%

ES 18%

Financial institutionsSEK 55bn

Structured creditsSEK 63bn

Page 37: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

3737

A high quality investment portfolio initiated 1998 with fixed income securities eligible as central bank collateralTotal volume SEK 63bn (71) - # of positions 740 (748)98.3% of the portfolio is rated Aaa/AAA– 10 rating actions in our tranches since summer 2007 (Q1 08: #7)

by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s– Well diversified across products, asset classes and geographies– Cash-flow based – only one synthetic transaction ($10.5m)Mark-to-market prices applied to all 740 positions– No level 3 assetsCurrent average remaining maturity ~4 years.Current annual amortisation rate is SEK ~10 bn

Main characteristics of structured credits portfolio (ABS portfolio)31 March, 2008

Page 38: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

Baltics

Page 39: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

39

The Baltics: Sharp decelerationfrom an extreme level

Page 40: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

40

The Baltics: Imports diving in Estonia and Latvia

Page 41: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

4141

0,000,200,400,600,80

2006 2007 Q1 2008 *

Baltics SEB Group

Collective provisions drive net credit losses, %

Net credit lossesEstonia and Latvia entering next stage

Credit growth in EstoniaYear-on-year percentage changeRetail sales

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%

Jan-07

Mar-07

May-07

Jul-07 Sep-07

Nov-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

* annualised

-100

10203040

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Estonia Latvia Loan Growth, % mom

Mortgages, % Growth mom

Page 42: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

4242

SEB Estonia SEB Latvia SEB Lithuania

14 17 23 2314 18 21 20 25

35 41 4258

8 7

34 5 5

5

711 11

1014

19 19

710

14 14 9

13

22 23

Dec'05

Dec'06

Dec'07

Mar'08

Dec'05

Dec'06

Dec'07

Mar'08

Dec'05

Dec'06

Dec'07

Mar'08

Banks

PublicAdministrationHouseholds

PropertyManagementCorporate

30,825,0

39,8

56,3

33,641,3 41,4

50,6

78,6

Growth rates adjusted for SEK/EUR changes

51,141,1

76,4

+39% +19% +40% +18% +47% +30% 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007

-1% Q1

-1% Q1

+3% Q1

Credit Exposure – on and off balanceSEB Baltic Banks, SEKbn

Page 43: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

Other

Page 44: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

4444

Share of operating profitJan – Mar 2008

4%

6%8%

1%4%

7%

12%

58%

GermanySweden

32%

40%

12%16%

Retail Banking

Wealth Management

Life Merchant Banking

Geography - Adjusted for OtherDivisions - Adjusted for Other

Lithuania

LatviaEstonia

Norway

Finland

Denmark

20%

18%

Page 45: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

4545

Profit and loss accountQ1 2008 vs. Q1 2007SEKm Q1 Q1 Change

2008 2007 %Net interest income 4,223 3,767 12Net fee and commissions 3,801 4,277 -11Net financial income -161 1,311 -112Net life insurance income 713 743 -4Net other income 226 95 138

Total operating income 8,802 10,193 -14Staff costs -3,899 -3,796 3Other expenses -1,756 -1,678 5Depreciation of assets -372 -328 13

Total operating expenses -6,027 -5,802 4Gain/loss tangible/intangible assets 3 -Net credit losses etc -368 -234 57

Operating profit 2,410 4,157 -42Net profit 1,848 3,262 -43

Page 46: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

46

Operating profit per divisionQ1 2008 vs. Q1 2007SEKm

0 1,000 2,000

Life

WealthManagement

Retail Banking

MerchantBanking

Q1 2008Q1 2007

Changevs. Q1 2007

-50% (-5%)

-11%

-17%

-20%

ROEQ1 2008

10.8% (20.4%)

15.3%

22.2%

17.3%

Excl. portfolio losses

GTS +1%TCM excl portfolios -12%Corp.Banking - 2%

Sweden -5%Estonia -96%Latvia +3%Lithuania +28%Germany -44%Cards +6%

-42% 9.6%

Page 47: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

4747

9%12%

9%

20%4%

28%

18%

Finance and insurance Wholesale and retailTransportation Other service sectorsConstruction ManufacturingOther

Corporate credit exposure - by industry

Page 48: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

48

7.9 8.0 7.8 7.5 8.2 8.6 8.9

10.5 10.2 10.3 10.8 11.5 11.0 11.1

Dec2002

Dec2003

Dec2004

Dec2005

Dec2006

Dec2007

Mar2008

Core capital ratio, % Total capital ratio, %

SEKbnCapital base 52.7 54.7 58.7 76.2 85.8 93.0 91.0Risk-w. Assets 503 535 570 704 741 842 817

Basel I 10.0%

Basel I 8.0 %

Basel I 909

Capital adequacy SEB Group

Basel II

Page 49: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

49

Improved quality of the capital base

Strategy to improve the quality and loss absorption capacity of the capital base:– LT2 redemption in June 2007

replaced by hybrid tier 1 capital in December 2007

– Hybrid tier 1 capital issued in December 2007 - enhanced loss absorption capacity; cancellation of coupon payments and write down of principal pre-liquidation

61.9 68.27.7

11.214.312.8

21.9 16.9

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

March 2007 March 2008

Equity Hybrid capital UT2 LT2*

* Total equity in the capital adequacy

Page 50: SEB Debt Roadshow June 2008, Anders Kvist

50

* Over collateral within Swedish covered pool SEK 66 bn (7bn EUR)

Wholesale Funding StructureSEB Group, March 2008SEK 581bn (~EUR 62bn)

Mortgage covered bonds, Sweden*

CPs/CDs

Mortgage covered bonds, Germany

Public covered bonds, Germany

Senior debt

Subordinated debt

Schuldscheine and Reg Bonds

7%

28%7%

8%

18%

7% 25%